Rate my team for 2010 (cont)

[nofeet]

 

[yogibbear]

Hunt, McVeigh, Medhurst all interesting choices.

Do you really think Moore will play Rnd 1 + another bench option in TDL/Pods to cover Franklin (or Davis + TDL/Pods)?

 

[Drummer_19]

Always room for chopping and changing but it's pretty much the structure I want. 45k in reserve.

 

[Lazarus]

Hille, Waite, Wonnamirri and Palmer all coming off long-term injuries.
I'd say put Morabito on the ground and trade Palmer for a bench player to free up some cash, and then upgrade either Dempsey/Brown in def or Wonna in fwd.
Also I reckon Mitch Clark is a bit dear for me, but good player so if he scores like he did last year, he's worth it. But now Brisbane have more than one fit ruckman, (keeping mind Clark was originally drafted as a fwd) he might get less ball.

 

[snubbs]

what do you guys think

Carrazzo, Fisher, Hodge, H.Shaw, Kennelly, Buckley, Broadbent
(Davis, Webberley)

Bartel, S.Thompson, Cooney, Masten, Trengove, Martin
(Bastinac, Shuey)

Sandilands, Kruezer
(Lobbe, Warnock)

N.Riewoldt, J.Brown, Pavlich, Franklin, Medhurst, Hall, Dangerfield
(Tapscott, Dennis-Lane)

 

[snubbs]

$48,900 left btw

 

[Hodgey09]

yet another effort, this is far to addictive

 

[Lazarus]

I like commenting on people's teams.

@snubbs:
Def - Don't know about Buckley and Broadbent playing rd 1. Otherwise fine.
Mid - Use your extra dough to upgrade Scott Thompson to a Selwood, Hayes, Boyd etc.
Ruc - Excellent. No change needed.
Fwd - Only worry is Barry Hall.

 

[brad3awsome]

Here is my team:
Backs:
A.Carazzo
Fisher
Hodge
Mackie
Ladson
Harbrow
Kennely
(Davis, Sheppard)

Midfields:
Bartel
Pendleberry
Wells
Gibbs
Cotchin
Trengrove
(Shuey, Martin)

Rucks:
McIntosh
Tippet
(Trengrove, Warnock)

Forwards:
Franklin
Rioli
Petrie
Medhurst
Zieball
Dangerfield
Watts
(Gumbleton,Tapscott)

Any Suggestions?

 

[Xplicit]

Got a ruck bench?

Are Rohan and Davis placeholders pending NAB and Rnd 1 teams?

Yeah ruck bench is warnock and skipper

Yeah davis and rohan are placeholders pending

thx

 

[Xplicit]

I think people are overrating the usefullness of this DP, I think it is more of a distraction.

Using Xplicit's team as an example. He has 4 DP Forwards (Pavlich, Higgins, Ziebell and Dangerfield). If he moves his best forward (Pavlich) into the midfield in exchange for Prismall and then takes a similar value forward, as Prismall (Brown). He has to now settle for Brown's scores instead of Prismalls, which is IMO 10ppg. That adds up to him losing 220 points for the year.

That means he's forfeiting a possible 220 points to cover the possible injuries of Higgins, Ziebell, Dangerfield. IMO he would only be looking at keeping Higgins of those three, (maybe Ziebell, but I wouldn't think of him as a keeper).

Now lets say that at Round 13, when he has made Dangerfield and Ziebell, Riewoldt and Fevola, Higgins happens to go down injured. And lets say that Rohan isn't playing, Davis is playing and averaging 70, Bastinac has gone down injured and Shuey is playing, but only averaging 65. He would then put Davis on the field and Higgins to the bench. He has no advantage, by wasting Pavlich in the midfield.

Or lets say at the end of the season, both Pavlich and Higgins have played out the year and Xplicit has came second in the comp by 100 points, don't you think he'd be wishing he forgot about this DP thing. If you stick a strong bench and durable players, you shouldn't need it. All you are saying is that I don't think my forward bench players will be playing, so I'm going to forfeit 220 points to hopefully have better cover in the midfield.

Sure, I might be completely wrong, but forward players are listed as forwards for a reason, they play at least a bit as forwards, and forwards don't score as well as pure midfielders. Also just to sidetrack and have another look at Xplicits team, what happens if Franklin goes down injured, having Pavlich in the midfield won't help him a bit.

Anyway, thats my two cents

I totally agree, the DP this year is just a teaser. BTW i was also thinking whether Ziebell is a keeper or not, how much would he have to average to be a keeper, because if he isnt, then you might as well pick a cheaper player to upgrade

Also is medhurst a keeper?
Would Mackay/Masten be a keeper?

 

[54Dogs]

I totally agree, the DP this year is just a teaser. BTW i was also thinking whether Ziebell is a keeper or not, how much would he have to average to be a keeper, because if he isnt, then you might as well pick a cheaper player to upgrade

Also is medhurst a keeper?
Would Mackay/Masten be a keeper?

Yep, totally disregard DP this year, pointless. No benefits whatsoever.

Are Medhurst, Masten and Mackay keepers?

Hmm, well that would depend whether you are going to keep them. Which would depend on how well you believe they will score.

If you believe they will score well enough all year to keep, they are keepers. If you don't believe they will, they are not keepers.

Think about what you believe they will average and then decide if that average is enough to keep them.

 

[footycool]

Hey Guys, Updated my team 14k in the bank

 

[54Dogs]

Hey Guys, Updated my team 14k in the bank

Most of that team looks solid FC but you might want to consider some back up options if Sheppard, Shuey and Davis are not named Rd 1 and Gumbleton is still injured.

 

[footycool]

Most of that team looks solid FC but you might want to consider some back up options if Sheppard, Shuey and Davis are not named Rd 1 and Gumbleton is still injured.

Cheers

If those players are not ready, i will downgrade roo and cover

 

[CuriousObsession]

I totally agree, the DP this year is just a teaser. BTW i was also thinking whether Ziebell is a keeper or not, how much would he have to average to be a keeper, because if he isnt, then you might as well pick a cheaper player to upgrade

Also is medhurst a keeper?
Would Mackay/Masten be a keeper?

The subjectivity of the word 'keeper' is always going to be a point of discussion in DT. Some might say that Joe Bloggs is a keeper, but others might say that he's not. It also has to do, with where they are in the team. The overall winner's 7th Back might have been averaging 80, but that doesn't mean you can have a backline full of players averaging 80. It also will have a lot to do with how the rest of your team is doing, you injuries and your recklishness with trades. A player having good durability can improve their chance of being a keeper.

I would definitely have a read of this 'oldish' post of Lakey's in which he trys to investigate the required average of a keeper. It is definitely some well thought out research. In it he concludes that you should be aiming, going on the top 5 final teams last year, for your 7th back to average 75, your 6th mid 95, your 2nd ruck 85 and your 7th forward 85, which sounds about right.

In regards to specific player analysis. First off, Mackay and Masten, I see both of these players being able to average somewhere between 80 - 90 and have an easy trade up to a premium, but for them to average 95 and be a keeper I think would be a big ask. I probably wouldn't count them as keepers, and I definitely wouldn't count both as keepers, if I had both, but I would have hope that their is a slight possibilty of them becoming keepers, or if my doing is doing badly, I know it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if I kept them.

Next, Medhurst is a very tricky one. In 8 season of AFL, he has averaged 85+ (Keeper level) once. In the other 7 seasons, he has averaged less or equal to what he's priced at (65). However, he's said to be having a good preseason and he did play very well last year. I would say that if you're picking him, your thinking he can get back up to last years scores and be a keeper, which I highly doubt. So, if he gets back to his best, I would expect him to average 80 - 85, which unless your team is doing exceptionally well will be enough for a 7th forward, but if he doesn't you have some deadwood on your hands.

Finally, Ziebell, is one that I keep changing my mind on, but ATM I don't see him as a keeper. He is a very significant player, only entering his 2nd season (which is not really a big improvement season) and he only managed 10 games last year, with some pretty poor scores (<65) dotted with a good 4 game stretch of 87, 86, 72 and 94, but that is still only an average of 85 and only one of those clubs (Collingwood), which he scored 72 against, has a real quality midfield that it is difficult to score against, the other clubs being Essendon, Richmond and Port Adelaide. In all I would at best expect a 75 average from Ziebell, he could have a great year and be a keeper, but I don't see a 20 ppg improvement in him. Though, again if injury strikes he could be an adequate 7th forward.

This doesn't mean I wouldn't select any of these blokes, as I said I have Mackay in my team, but I wouldn't count them as keepers. They could all, arguably have a 10 - 15 ppg improvement to their average and be an easy upgrade to a premium, or could have a superb year and become a keeper, but it is in no way a guarrantee.

Anyway, have a read of Lakey's post, it's great.

I was thinking about this the other day, and I wanted to see what the top 5 final teams looked like to see how high you might need to aim.

Backs = Final players in top 5 teams had a year average of approximately 89.72
Centres = 106.8
Rucks = 89.6
Forwards = 95.9

These are the averages though - so, for example, if they had goddard in your backs (ave 103-104 from memory), they may also have someone averaging 75-76. Likewise, if you had swan and ablett, you could also have a couple of players who *only* averaged 85-90 and maintain a level in line with the competition leaders.

Thus I thought that maybe the best keeper value was:

= ave of top 5 teams for that position-(ave of top player in position-ave of top 5 teams for that position)

So, the (2009) keeper values could be derived as:

Backs = 89.7 - [103.7(Goddard) - 89.7] = 75.7

Centres = 106.8 - [119.1(Swan) - 106.8] = 94.5

Rucks = 89.6 - [107.3(Cox) - 89.6] = 71.9 (distorted due to none of them having cox in their final team)
Rucks (Using Sandilands) = 89.6 - [95.5(Sandilands) - 89.6] = 83.7

Forwards = 95.9 - [112.5(Chapman) - 95.9] = 79.3 (again distorted by no-one having chapman in their final team)
Forwards (using riewoldt) = 95.9 - [106.5(Riewoldt) - 95.9] = 85.3

However, I think you can also lower these averages by 3-5 points if the player is highly durable (as this is based on average, NOT total points).

So roughly, it could be 75 backs, 95 mids, 85 rucks and 85 forwards, which is probably close to what I would of guessed just based on gut instinct - just shows that these theories and practices are actual reality.

Im not sure how plausible or credible these numbers are, particularly with the positioning of players like chapman, goddard, deledio, etc possibly decreasing the numbers in the backs/forwards, but something to think about none the less.

 

[Jorda5910]

21.7k left over.

 

[Spoony]

21.7k left over.

firstly you need to downgrade delzeil madey to trengrove, then chang brodbent to ladson, upgrade moore and change warren to dangerfield or mayne, then if you still have cash upgrade houli to someone like hurn or guerra
you should also think about changing boyd to pendelbury who looks like he is set to improve, and mabey changing higgins to pavlich.

 

[Spoony]

heres my team what do you guys think? any suggestions?

backs:Goddard ,Grimes, Hoge
Malcheski, Kennelly, ladson, Hunt, bench: maguire, Davis

Mids: swan, montagna ,pendlbury, mcveigh
trengrove, martin: Becch:shuey, bastinic

rucks:clark, Kreuzer, bench:Warnock, trengrove

Fow: Reiwoldt, Didak, Pavlich
tippet, Medhurst, Dangerfield, Mayne,:bench:Gumbelton, Denis-lane

 

[360noscope]

Grimes is far too injury prone IMO. Malceski is a big risk, Ladson is injured but is playing as i post.

McVeigh is out for Round 1 but the mids are good apart from that.

Rucks are excellent.

Forwards are good although Medhurst is a big risk.

Good overall. I would give it 7/10.

 

[Xplicit]

The subjectivity of the word 'keeper' is always going to be a point of discussion in DT. Some might say that Joe Bloggs is a keeper, but others might say that he's not. It also has to do, with where they are in the team. The overall winner's 7th Back might have been averaging 80, but that doesn't mean you can have a backline full of players averaging 80. It also will have a lot to do with how the rest of your team is doing, you injuries and your recklishness with trades. A player having good durability can improve their chance of being a keeper.

I would definitely have a read of this 'oldish' post of Lakey's in which he trys to investigate the required average of a keeper. It is definitely some well thought out research. In it he concludes that you should be aiming, going on the top 5 final teams last year, for your 7th back to average 75, your 6th mid 95, your 2nd ruck 85 and your 7th forward 85, which sounds about right.

In regards to specific player analysis. First off, Mackay and Masten, I see both of these players being able to average somewhere between 80 - 90 and have an easy trade up to a premium, but for them to average 95 and be a keeper I think would be a big ask. I probably wouldn't count them as keepers, and I definitely wouldn't count both as keepers, if I had both, but I would have hope that their is a slight possibilty of them becoming keepers, or if my doing is doing badly, I know it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if I kept them.

Next, Medhurst is a very tricky one. In 8 season of AFL, he has averaged 85+ (Keeper level) once. In the other 7 seasons, he has averaged less or equal to what he's priced at (65). However, he's said to be having a good preseason and he did play very well last year. I would say that if you're picking him, your thinking he can get back up to last years scores and be a keeper, which I highly doubt. So, if he gets back to his best, I would expect him to average 80 - 85, which unless your team is doing exceptionally well will be enough for a 7th forward, but if he doesn't you have some deadwood on your hands.

Finally, Ziebell, is one that I keep changing my mind on, but ATM I don't see him as a keeper. He is a very significant player, only entering his 2nd season (which is not really a big improvement season) and he only managed 10 games last year, with some pretty poor scores (<65) dotted with a good 4 game stretch of 87, 86, 72 and 94, but that is still only an average of 85 and only one of those clubs (Collingwood), which he scored 72 against, has a real quality midfield that it is difficult to score against, the other clubs being Essendon, Richmond and Port Adelaide. In all I would at best expect a 75 average from Ziebell, he could have a great year and be a keeper, but I don't see a 20 ppg improvement in him. Though, again if injury strikes he could be an adequate 7th forward.

This doesn't mean I wouldn't select any of these blokes, as I said I have Mackay in my team, but I wouldn't count them as keepers. They could all, arguably have a 10 - 15 ppg improvement to their average and be an easy upgrade to a premium, or could have a superb year and become a keeper, but it is in no way a guarrantee.

Anyway, have a read of Lakey's post, it's great.

Thanks CuriousObsession, that was a great read

But then is there a point having lets say Ziebell in your team for 60k more than say Dangerfield if your newayz going to trade them in the end?

 

[yogibbear]

EDIT: stupid post.

 

[Monkhorst]

d
e
f
e
n
d
e
r
s 1. Hodge, L
Pts: 0 Avg: N/A $366,800


2. Shaw, H
Pts: 0 Avg: N/A $365,400


3. Mackie, A
Pts: 0 Avg: N/A $365,100


4. Drummond, J
Pts: 0 Avg: N/A $333,500


5. Ellis, X
Pts: 0 Avg: N/A $305,600


6. Kennelly, T
Pts: 0 Avg: N/A $204,700


7. Broadbent, M
Pts: 0 Avg: N/A $192,200


23. Trengove, J
Pts: 0 Avg: N/A $94,500


24. Blight, J
Pts: 0 Avg: N/A $94,500


m
i
d
f
i
e
l
d 8. Pendlebury, S
Pts: 0 Avg: N/A $454,700


9. Selwood, J
Pts: 0 Avg: N/A $453,400


10. Deledio, B
Pts: 0 Avg: N/A $422,200
V.capt

11. Ball, L
Pts: 0 Avg: N/A $366,500


12. Connors, D
Pts: 0 Avg: N/A $156,000


13. Martin, D
Pts: 0 Avg: N/A $149,500


25. Walker, A
Pts: 0 Avg: N/A $318,100


26. Scully, T
Pts: 0 Avg: N/A $157,500


r
u
c
k
s 14. Kreuzer, M
Pts: 0 Avg: N/A $330,500


15. Naitanui, N
Pts: 0 Avg: N/A $232,400


27. Warnock, R
Pts: 0 Avg: N/A $101,800


28. Skipper, W
Pts: 0 Avg: N/A $95,800


f
o
r
w
a
r
d
s 16. Goodes, A
Pts: 0 Avg: N/A $434,800


17. Brown, J
Pts: 0 Avg: N/A $415,800


18. Higgins, S
Pts: 0 Avg: N/A $389,000


19. Franklin, L
Pts: 0 Avg: N/A $354,900


20. Jurrah, L
Pts: 0 Avg: N/A $260,600


21. Dangerfield, P
Pts: 0 Avg: N/A $232,000


22. Tapscott, L
Pts: 0 Avg: N/A $89,500


29. Moore, A
Pts: 0 Avg: N/A $125,500


30. Dennis-Lane, T
Pts: 0 Avg: N/A $89,500

 

[happy_eagle]

^ is that a question ?

 

[yogibbear]

-snip

Is this a serious side?