There is an idea going around, and I myself have bought into it. The idea is that a team that gets pumped in a grand final is mentally scarred and generally fails to win a flag with that group of players, or even make another grand final. In the meantime, pretty much every winning captain tells the losing team that you’ll be back here soon.
I wondered whether these are true, so I went through the grand final losers in the AFL era. I excluded the 2010 drawn GF since there was no loser, and excluded the recent years where the losers haven’t yet had 5 years to redeem themselves.
For a bad loss, I drew the line at 40 points because I just think that is a psychologically hefty margin, more than half-a-dozen goals. For a quick redemption, I drew the line at 5 years or less because 5 years isn’t really that long to wait as a supporter, and a playing group is likely to look very different after that time. Let me know if I've made any factual or counting errors.
1990: Essendon lost to Collingwood by 48. Went on to appear in GF 2 years later which they won.
1991: West Coast lost to Hawthorn by 53. Went on to appear in GF 1 year later which they won.
1992: Geelong lost to West Coast by 28. Went on to appear in GF 2 years later which they lost. Won flag 15 years after 1992.
1993: Carlton lost to Essendon by 44. Went on to appear in GF 2 years later which they won.
1994: Geelong lost to West Coast by 80. Went on to appear in GF 1 year later which they lost. Won flag 13 years after 1994.
1995: Geelong lost to Carlton by 61. Went on to appear in GF 12 years later which they won.
1996: Sydney lost to North Melbourne by 43. Went on to appear in GF 9 years later which they won.
1997: St Kilda lost to Adelaide by 31. Went on to appear in GFs 12 and 13 years later which they lost. Yet to win flag 25 years later.
1998: North Melbourne lost to Adelaide by 35. Went on to appear in GF 1 year later which they won.
1999: Carlton lost to North by 35. Yet to appear in GF 13 years later.
2000: Melbourne lost to Essendon by 60. Went on to appear in GF 21 years later which they won.
2001: Essendon lost to Brisbane by 26. Yet to appear in GF 21 years later.
2002: Collingwood lost to Brisbane by 9. Went on to appear in GF 1 year later which they lost. Won flag 8 years after 2002.
2003: Collingwood lost to Brisbane by 50. Went on to appear in GF 7 years later which they won.
2004: Brisbane lost to Port Adelaide by 40. Yet to appear in GF 18 years later.
2005: West Coast lost to Sydney by 4. Went on to appear in GF 1 year later which they won.
2006: Sydney lost to West Coast by 1. Went on to appear in GF 6 years later which they won.
2007: Port Adelaide lost to Geelong by 119. Yet to appear in GF 16 years later.
2008: Geelong lost to Hawthorn by 26. Went on to appear in GF 1 year later which they won.
2009: St Kilda lost to Geelong by 12. Went on to appear in GF 1 year later which they lost. Yet to win flag 13 years later.
2010: St Kilda lost to Collingwood by 56. Yet to appear in GF 12 years later.
2011: Collingwood lost to Geelong by 38. Went on to appear in GF 7 years later. Yet to win flag 11 years later.
2012: Hawthorn lost to Sydney by 10. Went on to appear in GF 1 year later which they won.
2013: Fremantle lost to Hawthorn by 15. Yet to appear in GF 9 years later.
2014: Sydney lost to Hawthorn by 63. Went on to appear in GF 2 years later which they lost. Yet to win flag 8 years later.
2015: West Coast lost to Hawthorn by 46. Went on to appear in GF 3 years later which they won.
2016: Sydney lost to Western Bulldogs by 22. Went on to appear in GF 6 years later which they lost. Yet to win flag 6 years later.
2017: Adelaide lost to Richmond by 48. Yet to appear in GF 5 years later.
Of the sides that lost a grand final by less than 40 points, 7 out of 14 appeared in another grand final in 5 years or less, and 4 out of 14 won a flag in 5 years or less.
Of the sides that lost a grand final by 40 points or more, 6 out of 14 appeared in another grand final in 5 years or less, and 4 out of 14 won a flag in 5 years or less.
In my view, this means there is no real correlation between grand final losing margin whether you will make another granny or win a flag within 5 years. As you can see, about half of grand final losers reappear on grand final day within a few years but only about a quarter will win a premiership in that time frame.
To draw a broader conclusion, I think we can say that if your club loses a grand final, regardless of the margin, you’ll probably be waiting another 5 years at least for a flag. They are hard to win.
However, you might disagree with me on what constitutes a bad loss in a granny, or what constitutes a short wait for redemption. Feel free to draw up your own lists or go further into the past. If psychological scarring is what we're investigating, you could even tally it on a player-by-player level - how many players subjected to grand final thrashings go on to play in another GF or win a premiership medallion? That would take ages to do though.
I wondered whether these are true, so I went through the grand final losers in the AFL era. I excluded the 2010 drawn GF since there was no loser, and excluded the recent years where the losers haven’t yet had 5 years to redeem themselves.
For a bad loss, I drew the line at 40 points because I just think that is a psychologically hefty margin, more than half-a-dozen goals. For a quick redemption, I drew the line at 5 years or less because 5 years isn’t really that long to wait as a supporter, and a playing group is likely to look very different after that time. Let me know if I've made any factual or counting errors.
1990: Essendon lost to Collingwood by 48. Went on to appear in GF 2 years later which they won.
1991: West Coast lost to Hawthorn by 53. Went on to appear in GF 1 year later which they won.
1992: Geelong lost to West Coast by 28. Went on to appear in GF 2 years later which they lost. Won flag 15 years after 1992.
1993: Carlton lost to Essendon by 44. Went on to appear in GF 2 years later which they won.
1994: Geelong lost to West Coast by 80. Went on to appear in GF 1 year later which they lost. Won flag 13 years after 1994.
1995: Geelong lost to Carlton by 61. Went on to appear in GF 12 years later which they won.
1996: Sydney lost to North Melbourne by 43. Went on to appear in GF 9 years later which they won.
1997: St Kilda lost to Adelaide by 31. Went on to appear in GFs 12 and 13 years later which they lost. Yet to win flag 25 years later.
1998: North Melbourne lost to Adelaide by 35. Went on to appear in GF 1 year later which they won.
1999: Carlton lost to North by 35. Yet to appear in GF 13 years later.
2000: Melbourne lost to Essendon by 60. Went on to appear in GF 21 years later which they won.
2001: Essendon lost to Brisbane by 26. Yet to appear in GF 21 years later.
2002: Collingwood lost to Brisbane by 9. Went on to appear in GF 1 year later which they lost. Won flag 8 years after 2002.
2003: Collingwood lost to Brisbane by 50. Went on to appear in GF 7 years later which they won.
2004: Brisbane lost to Port Adelaide by 40. Yet to appear in GF 18 years later.
2005: West Coast lost to Sydney by 4. Went on to appear in GF 1 year later which they won.
2006: Sydney lost to West Coast by 1. Went on to appear in GF 6 years later which they won.
2007: Port Adelaide lost to Geelong by 119. Yet to appear in GF 16 years later.
2008: Geelong lost to Hawthorn by 26. Went on to appear in GF 1 year later which they won.
2009: St Kilda lost to Geelong by 12. Went on to appear in GF 1 year later which they lost. Yet to win flag 13 years later.
2010: St Kilda lost to Collingwood by 56. Yet to appear in GF 12 years later.
2011: Collingwood lost to Geelong by 38. Went on to appear in GF 7 years later. Yet to win flag 11 years later.
2012: Hawthorn lost to Sydney by 10. Went on to appear in GF 1 year later which they won.
2013: Fremantle lost to Hawthorn by 15. Yet to appear in GF 9 years later.
2014: Sydney lost to Hawthorn by 63. Went on to appear in GF 2 years later which they lost. Yet to win flag 8 years later.
2015: West Coast lost to Hawthorn by 46. Went on to appear in GF 3 years later which they won.
2016: Sydney lost to Western Bulldogs by 22. Went on to appear in GF 6 years later which they lost. Yet to win flag 6 years later.
2017: Adelaide lost to Richmond by 48. Yet to appear in GF 5 years later.
Of the sides that lost a grand final by less than 40 points, 7 out of 14 appeared in another grand final in 5 years or less, and 4 out of 14 won a flag in 5 years or less.
Of the sides that lost a grand final by 40 points or more, 6 out of 14 appeared in another grand final in 5 years or less, and 4 out of 14 won a flag in 5 years or less.
In my view, this means there is no real correlation between grand final losing margin whether you will make another granny or win a flag within 5 years. As you can see, about half of grand final losers reappear on grand final day within a few years but only about a quarter will win a premiership in that time frame.
To draw a broader conclusion, I think we can say that if your club loses a grand final, regardless of the margin, you’ll probably be waiting another 5 years at least for a flag. They are hard to win.
However, you might disagree with me on what constitutes a bad loss in a granny, or what constitutes a short wait for redemption. Feel free to draw up your own lists or go further into the past. If psychological scarring is what we're investigating, you could even tally it on a player-by-player level - how many players subjected to grand final thrashings go on to play in another GF or win a premiership medallion? That would take ages to do though.
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