Road to the Finals

[DopeMaster]

As unlikely as it is, have seen the discussion popping up on other threads, so thought I’d centralise it here.

We obviously need to win our last three, but what are the likeliest permutations and combinations of other results that would get us there?

Looking at the fixture, GWS and Freo may be gettable. Hawks probably need to lose to Carlton…

Who are we deathriding and who are we barracking for week to week?

Note, this thread will self-destruct if we lose to the Swans this Friday.

 

[JLC]

Hahaha yes it will.

SCG is very much a bogey ground for us. We enjoyed good success at Olympic Park.

If we were to win this week then that would tell me a lot. Would then be thinking Prelim / Grand Final.

However, we are yet to win there under Fly and have taken stronger teams to undertake that mission.

 

[sideswipe]

As unlikely as it is, have seen the discussion popping up on other threads, so thought I’d centralise it here.

We obviously need to win our last three, but what are the likeliest permutations and combinations of other results that would get us there?

Looking at the fixture, GWS and Freo may be gettable. Hawks probably need to lose to Carlton…

Who are we deathriding and who are we barracking for week to week?

Note, this thread will self-destruct if we lose to the Swans this Friday.

Carlton. Always deathride Carlton.

 

[Jen2310]

Hahaha yes it will.

SCG is very much a bogey ground for us. We enjoyed good success at Olympic Park.

If we were to win this week then that would tell me a lot. Would then be thinking Prelim / Grand Final.

However, we are yet to win there under Fly and have taken stronger teams to undertake that mission.

I agree, it's a ground we just don't perform well on. Doesn't suit the way we play.
So I'm not expecting to win this.

2-7 is our win loss record in the last decade

 

[jakson68]

I agree, it's a ground we just don't perform well on. Doesn't suit the way we play.
So I'm not expecting to win this.

2-7 is our win loss record in the last decade

Yes but each loss, is a step closer to a win

 

[Deleted member 133504]

How many teams have gone into a game on top of the ladder, been blown out by 100 points plus, then won the next week? Even the Swans, given their form over the season, have been AWFUL. I couldn't find anywhere that has said the top team has come back and won the next week. I am happy to be proven wrong.

Not to say Sydney won't find a way to turn their form around. However, fiingers crossed they don't, and take it out on teams they can beat to favour our fortunes. They've not only been horrible, but, they haven't won at home, either. I don't see them finishing top, and they may even finish as low as fourth.

I'd be more worried about the Bears at the MCG. They seem to be winning from anywhere. Hindsight is 2024, but we really should have one at least two of the four we dropped in that four loss stretch. We are probably lucky Richmond is completely bottomed out because, they could have easily made it five losses in a row.

Without sounding completely negative, I did some scenarios, in which I tried to remain realistic. It's hard seeing us finish higher than 7th-8th, and that's even with us winning all our remaining fixtures. This means a final against the Dogs, probably, then an interstate trip or two to finish the finals. Let's hope we get there, somehow.

 

[adammania9]

Sydney are as gettable as Melbourne were on King's Birthday. Sometimes teams respond when they're in the trenches, sometimes they're just broken. I think Sydney are the latter. Their run of form goes beyond a slump.

 

[FromTheBoundaryLine]

I

I agree, it's a ground we just don't perform well on. Doesn't suit the way we play.
So I'm not expecting to win this.

2-7 is our win loss record in the last decade

I’m hoping our slightly adjusted style of play this year focusing on taking territory and forward half pressure might suit the SCG more. Fingers crossed. Longmire does seem to coach well against us. Good signs last week and I reckon our pressure will be through the roof so mildly confident we’ll get the result.

 

[Jen2310]

I

I’m hoping our slightly adjusted style of play this year focusing on taking territory and forward half pressure might suit the SCG more. Fingers crossed. Longmire does seem to coach well against us. Good signs last week and I reckon our pressure will be through the roof so mildly confident we’ll get the result.

Yeah we'll see. I'm expecting the swans to have gotten a wake up call, and we'll see a much improved swans side.
At least Papley is still injured.

I think if Swans doesnt get us, Lions might with the way they are playing.

 

[Jafo]

Carlton. Always deathride Carlton.

Going on the death ride trail would you trade two future firsts or a first and future second for any Carlton player?

Knowing might pick Crippa,TDK, Weitering or Curnow.

But thinking of Beams and so far Shoota’s (jury is still well out on this one) trade.

 

[SheezelSparks]

I wouldn't be suprised Blues lose to Hawks or either one of Saints or Eagles at Optus.

 

[SheezelSparks]

Yeah we'll see. I'm expecting the swans to have gotten a wake up call, and we'll see a much improved swans side.
At least Papley is still injured.

I think if Swans doesnt get us, Lions might with the way they are playing.

Agreed but MCG would suit us and a rematch in the GF would be a ripper. 50/50

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

Carlton and Hawks draw helps imo

 

[FromTheBoundaryLine]

Yeah we'll see. I'm expecting the swans to have gotten a wake up call, and we'll see a much improved swans side.
At least Papley is still injured.

I think if Swans doesnt get us, Lions might with the way they are playing.

Yep. I think we’ve got our mojo back and it will be interesting to have McStay forward and Frampton back against the Lions this time around. Put Beau onto Neale and see what happens

 

[magpiemaniac44]

Our best is still in the best few teams in the comp

Unfortunately we didn't pinch a win in our run of 4 consecutive losses, and as such we've made very tricky for ourselves to even make it let alone challenge

Our best bet is passing Hawthorn and Freo IMO

 

[Jen2310]

Yep. I think we’ve got our mojo back and it will be interesting to have McStay forward and Frampton back against the Lions this time around. Put Beau onto Neale and see what happens

My concern is that they looked back to their best for pendles. but even then, they looked cooked in the last quarter, I'm not yet convinced its actually back. Perform in a similar nature and I'll be more optimistic.

 

[WalterBlaknWhte]

Carlton and Hawks draw helps imo

Very good poster in another thread advocated this

 

[DopeMaster]

So Freo to come out the only remotely feasible pathway?

Shall reluctantly barrack for the Cats this weekend though, alternatively pay the game no attention if we get rolled in Sydney.

 

[No SPIN]

Posted this in another thread. With no real upsets in my picks, shows we can make it.
And the confidence of knocking off good sides in the lead up could be a defining factor in our prospects for B2B.

 

[WalterBlaknWhte]

So Freo to come out the only remotely feasible pathway?

Shall reluctantly barrack for the Cats this weekend though, alternatively pay the game no attention if we get rolled in Sydney.

If Collingwood are out there will be joys in:

* Essendon missing out on finals again

* Carlton getting ratf*cked


I also want Chris Scott to be unhappy

Port straight out of finals brings the ‘Sack Ken’ thread to the boil

Always opportunities to celebrate misery

 

[jimmy35]

Probably going to be a game short. Another point in one of those draws would be nice as well about now.

 

[Jelly Bean]

How many teams have gone into a game on top of the ladder, been blown out by 100 points plus, then won the next week?

Collingwood, R22, 2011. We were on top of the ladder (comfortably), got smashed by the Cats in the final round of the year by over 100 points, and then won our first and second finals...

 

[Jelly Bean]

We need Hawks and Dogs to lose, basically. We need to beat Sydney on Friday night, and Carlton MUST knock off Hawthorn next week for us to remain alive. Hawks play Richmond and North for their final two games, so have to lose one more otherwise we don't make it.

 

[Jelly Bean]

I'm most annoyed about the Fremantle draw and the Bulldogs loss. Although the GC loss was hugely annoying as well.

Fremantle game - we were comfortable in the last, and they came from 25ish points down in the last to draw it. Unforgivable by us (and I don't want to hear any complaints about the F50 free - that didn't lose it for us).

Bulldogs game - our play in the first quarter was a good football as we'd played all year, but kept on missing easy shots and making silly turnovers. Then we stopped.

GC - as we know, we had a habit through this period of not switching on outside of probably a quarter of football total for the game. We are a comfortably better side than them, but let them get the march on us until we pinched back the lead with a few minutes to go when we decided we cared (only to lose it again)

 

[gerryg400]

If Collingwood are out there will be joys in:

* Essendon missing out on finals again

* Carlton getting ratf*cked


I also want Chris Scott to be unhappy

Port straight out of finals brings the ‘Sack Ken’ thread to the boil

Always opportunities to celebrate misery

Imagine the ‘Sack Ken’ thread if they flag.