Unofficial Preview Round 1, 2023: Hawthorn v Essendon, MCG 3.20pm March 19th

[threesixpio]

As of today, based on pre-season games, I can't see a round 1 team not including Frost and Nash.

Nash is just too hard to match up on no matter what his draw backs might be imo. He is fast, tall and strong so one on ones are super tough against him.

Frost unlikely to go due to the leadership he brings.

 

[TylerDurden]

 

[peetoo]

If they are undecided between two for the 22nd, it’s no biggy with the tactical sub. Just select no 22 and no 23

Probably won’t have one player doing too many consecutives in #23 though

 

[peetoo]

Cant he just let B Scott work his magic? Robbo looks like he needs a pre season

 

[Simon Crawshay]

Nash is just too hard to match up on no matter what his draw backs might be imo. He is fast, tall and strong so one on ones are super tough against him.

Frost unlikely to go due to the leadership he brings.

Surely though it’s time we started to rate Nash based on output rather than potential.

He’s been in the AFL system for what, 5 years now? He really should be getting around the 20 possession mark a game if he’s gonna be a full time mid.

Last year was a write off for him cause he had to play ruck but this year we need to see him take the next step.

 

[MasterSamurai]

Is it just me or has the last few years everytime * play Hawthorn, the media go on a scathing * frenzy to get them going against us?!! Hopefully it backfires this time around because it's getting quite annoying. Hope we take them to the cleaners

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

He is turning 21 next month , for an AFL key/tall defender he realistically is 2 years from us seeing his capabilities at the level .

You mentioned Lake , talk to bulldog supports about his first few seasons.
I feel on here people are panicking because he was a high pick .
He most likely will come into his own when the group on a whole is on rhe upwards

If you want to see a key tall developing who may emerge this year who's been in the system 3-4 years look no further than Darcy Fogarty. Looks ready to explode if preseason form is any indication. He is now 23. When judging DGB wait till he is at the same curve in his development. 2025 we should start to see consistent results if all goes well.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

I took note of Denver during our game against Collingwood, and I don't think he offers our AFL side anything just at moment - he's undersized for the opposition's first three talls, appears to lack the necessary skills we would trust to give the ball to to distribute to others, and he regularly gives away free kicks ala Zac Dawson. He's simply untrustworthy.

What a load of rubbish. Undersized for the Harry McKay types maybe but he's the same height as Aaron Naughton for eg. He just needs physical size not height. Christ next people on here are going to say if your not 198 or above your undersized. Lever and May are 195 and 194 why do we think there such great backman?.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Merrett and it’s not a debate. Cut the head off the snake by taking out their captain.
Parish doesn’t hurt you that much anyways and after those 2 they don’t have anyone worth tagging

Martin will sneak under the radar if we let him. Caused us huge problems in the 2nd half last time around with his gut running. They have a few capable of getting off the chain if their at their best. Shiel also.

 

[Jazzfan]

I took note of Denver during our game against Collingwood, and I don't think he offers our AFL side anything just at moment - he's undersized for the opposition's first three talls, appears to lack the necessary skills we would trust to give the ball to to distribute to others, and he regularly gives away free kicks ala Zac Dawson. He's simply untrustworthy.

Not that directly, but Sicily said similar on SEN yesterday. Sicily said DGB's not strong enough at present and gives away free kicks that frustrate himself and the team.

Sic also said he's doing a lot of one on one craft with DGB and he needs patience.

I don't think he's close to playing rd 1, DGB.

I also don't think simply because player X developed later means that holds true for DGB. It might, but countless early picks bust also. Recently, Dekonning was a star in year three. Naughton. The Kings. Darcy looks special.

Who knows where it will land. We will have a better idea by rd 24.

 

[threesixpio]

**** Essendon

 

[threesixpio]

* *

 

[threesixpio]

Can we create a rule where Essendon always filters as * on this board. It would make me happy

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Not that directly, but Sicily said similar on SEN yesterday. Sicily said DGB's not strong enough at present and gives away free kicks that frustrate himself and the team.

Sic also said he's doing a lot of one on one craft with DGB and he needs patience.

I don't think he's close to playing rd 1, DGB.

I also don't think simply because player X developed later means that holds true for DGB. It might, but countless early picks bust also. Recently, Dekonning was a star in year three. Naughton. The Kings. Darcy looks special.

Who knows where it will land. We will have a better idea by rd 24.

You know the biggest thing you’ve missed here that Sicily and Sam both said yesterday regarding Denver.

He’s 20yrs old.

 

[Dewnior]

Looks like our f/s premiership player has come out of retirement to line up against us in R1.

I must have missed the signing...

 

[Jazzfan]

You know the biggest thing you’ve missed here that Sicily and Sam both said yesterday regarding Denver.

He’s 20yrs old.

I thought that was self-explanatory when I mentioned 'patience'.

But yes, Sicily mentioned he was only '21' and needs patience (he got the age wrong, although he is 21 next month).

 

[LRobbo]

I’m sure most remember that night in round 1, 2017 where they ‘welcomed their heroes’ back after a year’s suspension.

One thing that stood out to me is how much they pumped up their dislike for us on the scoreboard pre game, with that halfwit Sheedy leading the charge and their knuckle dragging supporters lapped it all up.

I really hope, the club mixed in with the ‘83 flag celebrations make mention of our disdain for them as well.
Interview some former players from ‘83 on the scoreboard, ask them what they think of *
Really play up the rivalry
Would be great to see.

We’ve become ultra woke of late so I doubt it will happen unfortunately

 

[TylerDurden]

I’m sure most remember that night in round 1, 2017 where they ‘welcomed their heroes’ back after a year’s suspension.

One thing that stood out to me is how much they pumped up their dislike for us on the scoreboard pre game, with that halfwit Sheedy leading the charge and their knuckle dragging supporters lapped it all up.

I really hope, the club mixed in with the ‘83 flag celebrations make mention of our disdain for them as well.
Interview some former players from ‘83 on the scoreboard, ask them what they think of *
Really play up the rivalry
Would be great to see.

We’ve become ultra woke of late so I doubt it will happen unfortunately

Roughy's return from cancer game.
Unfortunately we didn't show up that night.

 

[grumbleguts]

I’m sure most remember that night in round 1, 2017 where they ‘welcomed their heroes’ back after a year’s suspension.

One thing that stood out to me is how much they pumped up their dislike for us on the scoreboard pre game, with that halfwit Sheedy leading the charge and their knuckle-dragging, banjo-picking, cousin-dating supporters lapped it all up.

I really hope, the club mixed in with the ‘83 flag celebrations make mention of our disdain for them as well.
Interview some former players from ‘83 on the scoreboard, ask them what they think of *
Really play up the rivalry
Would be great to see.

We’ve become ultra woke of late so I doubt it will happen unfortunately

fixed somewhat.

 

[WWSD]

I would like to see Stephens in for this game. I think he might still be injured? Hopefully Morrison is good to go now.

 

[Spanish Sahara]

I would like to see Stephens in for this game. I think he might still be injured? Hopefully Morrison is good to go now.

Stephens played in the VFL game against the pies

 

[Simon Crawshay]

Not that directly, but Sicily said similar on SEN yesterday. Sicily said DGB's not strong enough at present and gives away free kicks that frustrate himself and the team.

Sic also said he's doing a lot of one on one craft with DGB and he needs patience.

I don't think he's close to playing rd 1, DGB.

I also don't think simply because player X developed later means that holds true for DGB. It might, but countless early picks bust also. Recently, Dekonning was a star in year three. Naughton. The Kings. Darcy looks special.

Who knows where it will land. We will have a better idea by rd 24.

Funny when you think about how teams regularly select key position players with top ten picks.

In a lot of ways it's quite a risky strategy. We honestly don't know how DGB is going to turn out and I could do a long list of top 5 key position players who were busts (Patton, Boyd, Schache etc).

Whereas midfielders are a much safer bet. Look at our recent top ten picks in Ward and Mackenzie. They were ready made to slot straight into the team and contribute. Very low risk / high return picks.

Naturally there is the other side of the argument in that if you get a Roughy/Buddy type haul of KPP's you are set for ten years but that's pretty rare and those guys were generational type talents.

Could be a case to make that you should save your top ten picks for A grade, low risk mids like Ward/Mackenzie and try and get your KPPs via trades or speculative later picks (Mitch Lewis being a classic case)?

 

[The Spirit of Cricket]

Funny when you think about how teams regularly select key position players with top ten picks.

In a lot of ways it's quite a risky strategy. We honestly don't know how DGB is going to turn out and I could do a long list of top 5 key position players who were busts (Patton, Boyd, Schache etc).

Whereas midfielders are a much safer bet. Look at our recent top ten picks in Ward and Mackenzie. They were ready made to slot straight into the team and contribute. Very low risk / high return picks.

Naturally there is the other side of the argument in that if you get a Roughy/Buddy type haul of KPP's you are set for ten years but that's pretty rare and those guys were generational type talents.

Could be a case to make that you should save your top ten picks for A grade, low risk mids like Ward/Mackenzie and try and get your KPPs via trades or speculative later picks (Mitch Lewis being a classic case)?

nah, unicorn KPPs will always go first round. Teams simply don't win flags without top-shelf KPPs, and the fact they're so hard to find and risky shows why they go so early.

The post you're replying to demonstrates the value of drafting talented KPPs early. Kings, Naughton. I think the last 10 years of coleman medal winners were all first-round draft picks. Majority of the best FBs in the comp were taken early too (Weitering, May etc.). For every time you get lucky with a Mitch Lewis or Tom Stewart, you're much more likely to find a Kaiden Brand.

Generally, i don't think the comparisons to other KPPs do Denver any good. You don't know how any player is going to turn out – even sure things like Matt Rowell suddenly cop a rough run of injuries and things don't look so certain. Development isn't a linear concept, injuries and off-field shit ruin careers just as much as talent or lack of development.

We're in a stage of our list management where we can afford to give Denver a few years as a slow burn. He doesn't need to become good as quickly or as slowly as any other player – as long as the coaches like what he's doing over the next couple years then so do I

 

[grumbleguts]

Can we create a rule where * always filters as * on this board. It would make me happy

Fixed.

 

[Simon Crawshay]

nah, unicorn KPPs will always go first round. Teams simply don't win flags without top-shelf KPPs, and the fact they're so hard to find and risky shows why they go so early.

The post you're replying to demonstrates the value of drafting talented KPPs early. Kings, Naughton. I think the last 10 years of coleman medal winners were all first-round draft picks. Majority of the best FBs in the comp were taken early too (Weitering, May etc.). For every time you get lucky with a Mitch Lewis or Tom Stewart, you're much more likely to find a Kaiden Brand.

Generally, i don't think the comparisons to other KPPs do Denver any good. You don't know how any player is going to turn out – even sure things like Matt Rowell suddenly cop a rough run of injuries and things don't look so certain. Development isn't a linear concept, injuries and off-field s**t ruin careers just as much as talent or lack of development.

We're in a stage of our list management where we can afford to give Denver a few years as a slow burn. He doesn't need to become good as quickly or as slowly as any other player – as long as the coaches like what he's doing over the next couple years then so do I

I can’t be bothered doing it but it would be interesting to look back over say the last ten years of top 10 draft picks and rank all of the picks as boom/bust as well as whether they are KPP or midfielder/utility.

My gut feeling is that there would be a higher ratio of busts for the KPPs but by the same token the boom players for the KPPs are probably more valuable than the boom players for the midfielders/utilities.