Prediction ROUND 1 2023 - Pick your best team

[1970crow]

Best 10-12

Reckon he’s in the top few of the players that I least want to lose. Off the top of my head, him, Dawson, TT, Fog, Pedlar & Rachele would be the top 6. Berry and McAdam next and then there’s everyone else that I’d not care much if we traded out for evens. Although I still think Jones can become very good.

 

[1970crow]

More like a Kane Johnson than a Rory Atkins, given he actually likes contests & tackling unlike the RAT.

I don't see any semblance between Soligo & Atkins in their respective footy styles.

Then you need to watch with your eyes. Both are prepared to hold onto the ball and look for an option despite being under imminent pressure. And both are slippery and mostly get away with it.

 

[Scorpus]

It's concerning how devoid of leaders we are and how unsuitable many of our senior players are.

 

[LeftyLuke]

We don't see much change over a preseason, in fact, historically poor form from seniors tends to be forgotten throughout the warmer months. So the continuity driven 22 from the last few games is a very good basis for predicting the round 1 side. This is why we could reliably predict the starting mids at the opening bounce of this season. Injury notwithstanding, the definite ins are Rachele, Rankine and Sloane with Davis and Rowe out.

Given the certain ins being mid or forwards, I originally figured that would put Ned and Murph at risk. But looking at the back 6 above, I wouldn't be surprised if Worrell was to be one of the outs. My new prediction if everyone is available is Worrell out, Milera back half and Murphy to sub. I can't see McAdam squeezing back in despite a pretty good year and offering a point of difference in our forward line.

Schoey and Parnell are potentially at some risk to be sub instead of Murphy. But I reckon the 23 are all but locked in.

Worrell won't be an out imo, we need his height and run down back. By playing Worrell we can play Dawson on a wing and half forward where he should be played. Hinge is more likely out than Worrell. Murphy and McHenry are the most likely outs in the forward line as they can't score consistently and can't play mid. If Rankine and Rachele play which they will (barring injury) the most likely out are those two. The other variable is Pedlar who is a walk up start better option forward than Ned and Murphy as long as he stays uninjured. Pedlar can score goals from 50-60m out which Ned would be lucky to make half that distance.

McAdam will stay in as we need his aerial ability which Ned and Murphy also don't have. The interesting question is where will we play Thilthorpe. Will he play more around the ball in the ruck? Also is there any future for Himmelberg and Gollant? This is also a make or break year for Cook, he needs to show something this year if he wants to make it with us.

 

[Golumless]

Worrell won't be an out imo, we need his height and run down back. By playing Worrell we can play Dawson on a wing and half forward where he should be played. Hinge is more likely out than Worrell. Murphy and McHenry are the most likely outs in the forward line as they can't score consistently and can't play mid. If Rankine and Rachele play which they will (barring injury) the most likely out are those two. The other variable is Pedlar who is a walk up better option forward than Ned and Murphy as long as he stays uninjured.

McAdam will stay in as we need his aerial ability which Ned and Murphy also don't have. The interesting question is where will we play Thilthorpe. Will he play more around the ball in the ruck? Also is there any future for Himmelberg and Gollant? This is also a make or break year for Cook, he needs to show something this year if he wants to make it with us.

The third year is never a make or break one for a 1st/2nd round pick. Especially one who came into the system on the rawer side.

Heck, the make or break year might not come until the 2025 season for Cook. He has a fair bit of time, but life gets harder the longer he's out of the best 22.

 

[LeftyLuke]

The third year is never a make or break one for a 1st/2nd round pick. Especially one who came into the system on the rawer side.

Heck, the make or break year might not come until the 2025 season for Cook. He has a fair bit of time, but life gets harder the longer he's out of the best 22.

I think if he doesn't show something this year they may trade him. Not saying he won't make it but we need some impact from him by the end of 3 years.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

It's concerning how devoid of leaders we are and how unsuitable many of our senior players are.

You really think this ?

Maybe you underestimate some of the young guys drive , plenty of emerging leaders

Look at the way these guys have trained together over last couple of pre seasons , the way they defend and do plenty of the hard stuff on game day

Wouldn’t underestimate leadership

 

[Scorpus]

You really think this ?

Maybe you underestimate some of the young guys drive , plenty of emerging leaders

Look at the way these guys have trained together over last couple of pre seasons , the way they defend and do plenty of the hard stuff on game day

Wouldn’t underestimate leadership

We might have a few upcoming leaders but we're not going to chuck a 3rd year player into a captain role

 

[Jeffcrowe]

We might have a few upcoming leaders but we're not going to chuck a 3rd year player into a captain role

Won’t need to

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Worrell won't be an out imo, we need his height and run down back. By playing Worrell we can play Dawson on a wing and half forward where he should be played. Hinge is more likely out than Worrell. Murphy and McHenry are the most likely outs in the forward line as they can't score consistently and can't play mid. If Rankine and Rachele play which they will (barring injury) the most likely out are those two. The other variable is Pedlar who is a walk up start better option forward than Ned and Murphy as long as he stays uninjured. Pedlar can score goals from 50-60m out which Ned would be lucky to make half that distance.

McAdam will stay in as we need his aerial ability which Ned and Murphy also don't have. The interesting question is where will we play Thilthorpe. Will he play more around the ball in the ruck? Also is there any future for Himmelberg and Gollant? This is also a make or break year for Cook, he needs to show something this year if he wants to make it with us.

As much as some of us wouldn’t mind seeing McHenry not in the side I can say the odds are very slim

Extremely highly rated internally, even the players put him up as most courageous for the AFLPA awards

Gollant is an interesting one , pretty important year and won’t be easy to get a spot now that Fogarty is going so well

Himmelberg will keep Thilthorpe honest and ROB to a lesser degree ( wouldn’t rule out TT / Berg forward / ruck tandem ) … but will mainly play if injuries

 

[Drewie11]

B: Doedee - Butts - Hamill
HB: Hinge - Murray - Smith
C: Soligo - Berry - Dawson
HF: Keays - Walker - Rachele
F: McAdam - Fogarty - Thilthorpe
R: ROB - Laird - Rankine

I/C: Milera - Jones - Pedlar - Schoenberg - Sloane

This is harder than the last couple of years. We’ve got some depth across the lines now.

Defence Worrell, Parnell, MM, McPherson and Borlaise

Mids Crouch, Hately, Taylor, Schol, Cook, Nankervis, Dowling and Bond

Ruck Strahan

Forwards Himmelberg, McHenry, Murphy, Newchurch, Gollant

 

[Big Dub]

Barring injury or arrest, I think these guys are locks:

B: Butts Doedee
HB: Smith Murray Dawson
W: Hinge Laird Jones
HF: Rachele Fog Thilthorpe
F: Rankine Tex McAdam
R: ROB Berry Keays
I: Soligo Schoenberg

We need 2 more backs (inc one on the bench). While the backline looks tall, Smith and Dawson are ball users and have some run and carry. We probably lack some accountability in that defence, so Michalaney will be a chance (in time). Worrell adds that for now so he gets one spot with Parnell, Hamill and Milera fighting for the other, although I'd like to see Taylor use his evasion and ball use back here. I think Moose is a bit further back. I think Milera gets the gig over Parnell to move the ball out, but it will come down to preseason form (and Parnell is getting Club based media mentions, which is a bit of a sign of being preferred internally).

Another midfielder is needed on the bench. For me should be Pedlar if fit, but I suspect the Club fits Sloane in if they can (recovery permitting). If Sloane is not ready, Milera might take that spot with Parnell in for the backline.

Another forward is needed for the bench also. Ned and Murphy are both now fringe players, but both liked by the Club. I think it's a toss of the coin for these guys. Pedlar could easily come in too, but I think it's after round one (no real reason, just the body risk might prompt a few weeks uninjured in the SANFL before coming in).

That just leaves the sub role. This will be a midfielder to add a bit of run late, although Pedlar also a chance here, where there will be less game time to get through in the early rounds. On paper I would give it to Taylor as the next most AFL ready player, but you wouldn't do that to him for a debut. So Taylor to the bench and the winner of Ned/ Murphy to take the sub role for round 1.

 

[Golumless]

I think if he doesn't show something this year they may trade him. Not saying he won't make it but we need some impact from him by the end of 3 years.

No chance we'll even consider trading him. Our outside stocks are pretty meh and there aren't too many players with Cooks class/skill on our list.

Much like Jones, we're going to hold on until either they make it, or they've completely exhausted their shot.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

AFL

B: Jones, Butts, Murray
HB: Smith, Worrell, Doedee (vc)
C: Soligo, Keays, Dawson (c)
HF: Sloane, Walker, Rankine
F: Rachele, Fogarty, Thilthorpe
R: O'Brien, Schoenberg, Laird
I: Hinge, Berry, Pedlar, McAdam
Sub: Taylor

SANFL

B: McPherson, Borlase, Magden (c)
HB: Parnell, McAsey, Hamill
C: Sholl, Crouch, Milera
HF: Cook, Himmelberg, Murphy
F: Newchurch, Gollant, Nankervis
R: Strachan, Hately, McHenry
I: Michalanney, Dowling, Bond, Turner*

*Turner for injured Seedsman

Talk on the Pedlar thread about midfield/forward rotations.

Would like to see something like...

midfield - forward - bench % splits
Laird 70 - 0 - 30
Dawson 70 - 0 - 30
Soligo 60 - 10 - 30
Berry 60 - 10 - 30
Schoenberg 60 - 10 - 30
Keays 40 - 35 - 25
Rankine 40 - 35 - 25
Sloane 40 - 35 - 25
Pedlar 40 - 35 - 25
Rachele 20 - 55 - 25

 

[BRL121]

I reckon there will be much more melting on selection nights in 2023. It seems like there is much more competition for the lower spots in the 23.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

I reckon there will be much more melting on selection nights in 2023. It seems like there is much more competition for the lower spots in the 23.

Melting is guaranteed nearly every week lol.

 

[skittlebrew]

B: Butts Doedee
HB: Smith Murray Dawson
W: Hinge Laird Jones
HF: Rachele Fog Thilthorpe
F: Rankine Tex McAdam
R: ROB Berry Keays
I: Soligo Schoenberg

I think if we play our little hearts out we just might be able to escape the bottom 4.

None of those players are really out of place in the best 22 at any club but it really lacks some firepower and X factor. Our older players are on the downhill and younger players on the way up but haven't properly broken out yet (although I'm hopefully on Fog).

 

[Wazzy36]

I think if we play our little hearts out we just might be able to escape the bottom 4.

None of those players are really out of place in the best 22 at any club but it really lacks some firepower and X factor. Our older players are on the downhill and younger players on the way up but haven't properly broken out yet (although I'm hopefully on Fog).

We weren't even bottom 4 last year.

 

[crows dude]

AFL
F Rachele Fogarty McAdam
HF Keays Walker Thilthorpe
C Dawson Berry Soligo
HB Hinge Murray Smith
B Doedee Butts Worrell
RUCK O'Brien Laird Rankine
INTER Sloane Pedlar Hamill Jones Sholl

SANFL
F Seedsman Himmelberg Gollant
HF McHenry McAsey Schoenberg
C Cook Taylor Newchurch
HB Michalanney Magden Murphy
B Milera Borlase Parnell
R Strachan Crouch Hately
I Dowling Bond McPherson Nankervis

 

[Dangerousfield]

Reckon he’s in the top few of the players that I least want to lose. Off the top of my head, him, Dawson, TT, Fog, Pedlar & Rachele would be the top 6. Berry and McAdam next and then there’s everyone else that I’d not care much if we traded out for evens. Although I still think Jones can become very good.

You're dreaming, "very good" is a couple of grades up from where he'll finish, just doesn't find enough of the ball or have any game awareness.

We'd need to have a lot of injuries for Murphy and McHenry to be getting games next season and I reckon Jones will also be squeezed out as younger players step up.

Then there's Captain Fantastic to fit back into the 22 as well!

 

[Schulzycrow]

F: Rachelle, Walker, McAdam
HF: Thilthorpe, Fogarty, Rankine
C: Dawson, Keays, Soligo
HB: Jones, Murray, Smith
B: Doedee, Butts, Worrell
R: O'Brien, Laird, Berry
I: Sloane, Milera, Schoenburg, Pedlar

Rankine won't be in the first ruck. Half forward swapping with Rachelle. Some burst in the Mid for both.
Sloane and Milera in the HB line and maybe some wing, with some short bursts in the mid, Berg and Pedlar in the mid-rotation.
Keays a C would be a rotation spot, with him heading to the HF line to rotate with Rachelle and Rankine.

I think this lineup gives a good balance. On paper, the forward line is probably one of the best for a while.
Milera might be the one I would drop for, maybe a Dowling, Michalanney or Sholl.

Another PS under Burgess and who knows? Thinking 7-12 this year is doable. Going to rely on the mids and HB line getting good quick ball to the forwards. O'Brien will need to be better than last season for us to have any chance.

Strong SANFL side again barring injuries.

 

[1970crow]

AFL
F Rachele Fogarty McAdam
HF Keays Walker Thilthorpe
C Dawson Berry Soligo
HB Hinge Murray Smith
B Doedee Butts Worrell
RUCK O'Brien Laird Rankine
INTER Sloane Pedlar Hamill Jones Sholl

SANFL
F Seedsman Himmelberg Gollant
HF McHenry McAsey Schoenberg
C Cook Taylor Newchurch
HB Michalanney Magden Murphy
B Milera Borlase Parnell
R Strachan Crouch Hately
I Dowling Bond McPherson Nankervis

Swap Schoey for Sloane in the 22 and I reckon that’s about it. Then you can raffle sub between Sholl, Sloane, McHenry, Murphy, Parnell and even Hately.

 

[skittlebrew]

We weren't even bottom 4 last year.

If you're automatically assuming linear progression, you're gonna have a bad time.

 

[jackster83]

Hamill is an interesting one.

Could easily make the side if he has a clear run of it, but he probably gives himself a concussion just putting that helmet on.

 

[Mikevk123]

B Jones Butts Doedee
HB Smith Murray Worrell
C Dawson Berry Soligo
HF Keayes Fogarty Rachele
F Rankine Walker McAdam
FOLL O’Brien Schoenberg Laird
I/C- Thilthorpe, Milera, Pedlar, Cook