Unofficial Preview Round 1: St Kilda vs Melbourne - Etihad Stadium; March 22/7:40pm

[Manimal_Dunstan]

With the 2014 practice matches done, i thought it might be worth having a Round 1 thread for all the discussion for our season opener against the Demons.

I'll write up a little preview and post in here also.

If it's a bit early for the thread do delete mods (Armitage2Riewoldt / Kildonan / Squizzy1970)

Even bring over predicted Best 22's if needed:

St Kilda injuries/suspensions:
Lenny Hayes (Suspended)
Leigh Montagna (Suspended)
Maverick Weller (Suspended)
Jack Steven (Injured)
Sam Gilbert (Injured, in doubt but has started running)
Lewis Pierce (Injured)
Spencer White (Injured i think, might be back next week)

 

[mysainters]

Early?

Its overdue.

Footy's back y'all, footys back.

 

[Manimal_Dunstan]

Haha, good point MS.

Thank god those garbage matches are over and just two weeks until the real deal (Well for the mighty sainters!!)

 

[cooperrules]

game on moles. game on.

 

[mysainters]

Well it's never too early to talk matchups.



Rucks hickey/longer
Mids Armo, Geary, Ray, Dunstan, TC, Newnes?
Forwards roo, lee, resting ruck, Schneider, TDL?
Backs Webster, wright, Bruce, Gwilt

Slim pickings selection wise, def no hayes, joey, Gilbo, Steven. Doubts over Stanley, fisher, Delaney?

 

[aussierulesrules]

I think it's worked out very, very well for us that Melbourne got off to a bit of a flier in the NAB Challenge and that they didn't get the injury to Hogan, or get smashed by Hawthorn, until late, because they are now much shorter than us in the betting and with most of the expectations on their shoulders, which I read today they had on two or 3 occasions last year and lost two of those matches by about 10+ goals! We now go in with nothing to lose and as the "hunter", which I think will suit us. The ground also suits us of course, as Melbourne haven't won at Etihad for over 6 years, while we love playing there, especially on a Saturday night.

We're likely to be missing Steven, Hayes, Joey and Gilbo from our ideal best 22, which hurts, plus maybe Stanley, who is borderline best-22, but they are now looking like being without Clark and Hogan for sure and Dawes, Jamar and Gawn haven't played a game all preseason, so they will either not play, or go in very underdone, which makes their ruck and forward line look much, much weaker, like our midfield is.

I also like the fact that Melbourne have essentially "shown their hand" with regards to their very different game plan, which Roos has said is not likely to change from week to week, so we know pretty much exactly how they are going to play (chip, chip, chip) and will have had a few weeks to work out how to combat it. I read in the paper today that they always handball backwards out of the packs now, for instance, so we know that if they get it in a pack, it is going out the back, so we'll be there waiting for that. I'm not sure our game plan is as easy to identify and combat.

Last week I thought they would win this game when we were looking deplorable and we heard that Lenny had done his hammy (which he hasn't, although he is now out anyway!), as our midfield is looking so weak and our form was so poor, but now that Hogan is out and Dawes is in doubt I think it makes it a much more even contest and today's two respective results probably tip it back in our favour.

If we play with the sort of defensive intensity we apparently played with today, then I doubt we'll lose. We will have to find some alternative midfield options though, or else use all of CJ, Gears and Ray/Curren in tagging roles, to try and break even in the middle.

B: WEBSTER DELANEY GWILT
HB: DEMPSTER FISHER ROBERTON
C: GEARY DUNSTAN RAY
HF: SAVAGE RIEWOLDT SCHNEIDER
F: LONGER MAISTER CURREN
R: HICKEY ARMO JONES
I: NEWNES WRIGHT SAUNDERS and one of LEE, BILLINGS, MINCHINGTON, TEMPLETON, ROSS, MARKWORTH, DUNELL- ideally someone who is suited to the forward line, with Wright and Newnes both suited midfield, or back.

I think most of the team picks itself and the big question will probably be whether we play two ruck options and all of Roo, Maister and Lee, or whether we choose between Beau and Tom, which I think Beau wins, due to having much better match-fitness at this stage. That last spot in the team may as well be done as a raffle! If Stanley is not injured, then he probably gets the nod over Longer and also makes it easier to select Beau over Lee, as Rhys can play a similar role to Lee up forward.

Looking forward to it again!

 

[Manimal_Dunstan]

Well it's never too early to talk matchups.



Rucks hickey/longer
Mids Armo, Geary, Ray, Dunstan, TC, Newnes?
Forwards roo, lee, resting ruck, Schneider, TDL?
Backs Webster, wright, Bruce, Gwilt

Slim pickings selection wise, def no hayes, joey, Steven. Doubts over Stanley, fisher, Delaney?

Delaney will be fine
Not sure with Rhys
Fisher will be fine for Round 1, maybe he'll play in the Sandy practice match next week?

 

[SaintLex]

Alright haven't had a crack at a best 22 all pre-season but now that practice matches are done and dusted, I might as well have a go:

FB: Dempster, Delaney, Gwilt
HB: Webster, Bruce*, Roberton
C: Dunstan, Geary, Ray
HF: Savage, Roo, Schneider
FF: Saunders, Lee, Maister
R: Hickey, Armo, Jones
INT: Wright, Curren, Newnes, Templeton/Minch (sub)

*If Fisher is fit (i'm not convinced he is) swap him with Bruce

That midfield looks very worrying.

 

[mysainters]

That midfield looks very worrying.

Yes and no

Worrying if you look at it from purely the few named, hoping Richo rotates a few through there this year.

Armo can expect a tag judging from preseason, we need to be clever if this happens.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

What's going on with Milera is he injured?

 

[Manimal_Dunstan]

What's going on with Milera is he injured?

Forgot him in the opening post. But still recovering from injury, was 1-2 weeks away on the AFL injury update.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

Forgot him in the opening post. But still recovering from injury, was 1-2 weeks away on the AFL injury update.

Sweet. We could really use his pace and skill.

 

[Bojangles17]

Do you guys reckon you'll win this , sweet odds, worried about your outs, however melb will be shaping up with a no name front half. Tell me why u can win ,

 

[Phoenix_9]

The 21 imo picks itself for Round 1.

FB: Dempster, Delaney, Gwilt
HB: Roberton, Fisher*, Webster
C: Savage, Dunstan, Ray
HF: Curren, Riewoldt, Jones
FF: Schneider, Maister*, Longer*
R: Hickey, Geary, Armitage
INT: Wright, Saunders, Newnes*
SUB: Billings*

- If Fisher doesn't get up Bruce/Simpkin to take his spot (imo fisher will play)
- Will be 2 of Maister/Longer/Lee/Stanley for a tall forward and a ruck/forward postion, depends on fitness and how the Selection Panel want to go. (Maister seems to dominate against the Dees and I think Longer will get the nod, especially with Lee struggling and Stanley possibly injured)
- Newnes is on thin ice, hasn't done much this preseason... could be another youngster and Lenny and Monty should displace him in round 2.
- Sub could be about 5+ players (Dunnel/Ross/Minchington/Templeton/Lee/Siposs/etc) but would like to get games into Billings if he's physically ready.

With Melbourne's forward line decimated I think our defense should stand up.
Our midfield will struggle without Steven, Montagna and Hayes. Hickey should win the ruck contest, but we should lose the overall midfield battle.
I think our forward line/goal kicking midfielders should kick a big enough score to win.
Saints by 18 points.

 

[SaintLex]

I don't think Billings is anywhere near ready for AFL football. Looked out of his depth in the NAB. Don't get me wrong, I think he'll be a player, but i'd rather wait until he's up to it. Nothing wrong with starting him in the VFL.

 

[Persevering Saint]

The game plan we employed today won't win every game. The young kids will not be able to withstand it for four quarters. BUT, what it will do is CRUSH weak minded teams. And if we really crush their confidence, then we'll be able to ride through our fade outs without too much damage.

Melbourne is a weak minded team, I suspect.

Ripe for the picking.

 

[mysainters]

Can we just make sure we tag that kid that always has a blinder against us, blease I think?

 

[Defacto]

anyone know what the deal is with stanley?

 

[Q TRAIN]

The game plan we employed today won't win every game. The young kids will not be able to withstand it for four quarters. BUT, what it will do is CRUSH weak minded teams. And if we really crush their confidence, then we'll be able to ride through our fade outs without too much damage.

Melbourne is a weak minded team, I suspect.

Ripe for the picking.

I agree, I don't have an inkling of the Melb game either way??
We might win , we might get smashed ? I honestly cant pick it.

 

[Saintos The ITK]

Struggling to understand Gwiltys selection in most teams, won't play in my opinion, depth only.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Struggling to understand Gwiltys selection in most teams, won't play in my opinion, depth only.

The fact that he was picked in yesterday's game ahead of both Bruce and Simpkin suggests that he is currently ahead of them in the pecking order and as such is very likely to be in the R1 team.

 

[hayes]

Ok here we go:

FB: Dempster Delaney Gwilt
HB: Roberton Fisher Webster
C: Newnes Armitage Schneider
HF: Stanley Roo Savage
FF: Saunders Maister Curren

R: Hickey Ross Wright

Int: Dunstan Geary Jones Ray

Something like that I think we'll see. Bruce for Fisher and Longer for Stanley if either of them aren't fit.

The three smalls in the forward line can obviously rotate through the midfield. Bench is all mids so at the very least we should have plenty of numbers running through there which we didn't have last year.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

I think Dunstan has to start in the middle. He's been our best clearance player in the praccy matches. Says a lot for a first year player (and our current midfield). Without Steven and Montagna our midfielder is very one-paced. Jones has to play in the middle to add a bit of pace if nothing else.

If Fisher is fit have him instead of Bruce. I preferred Longer to Stanley and Maister to Lee but wouldn't be surprised if we go in with an extra tall.

B: Dempster Delaney Gwilt
HB: Roberton Bruce Webster
C: Geary Jones Ray
HF: Savage Riewoldt Schnieder
F: Longer Maister Curren
R: Hickey Armitage Dunstan
I: Saunders Newnes Wright
S: Ross

 

[Bull3tblitz]

From AFL.com


St Kilda
B: James Gwilt, Luke Delaney, Sean Dempster
HB: Dylan Roberton, Sam Fisher, Jimmy Webster
C: Farren Ray, Clint Jones, Shane Savage
HF: Luke Dunstan, Nick Riewoldt, Rhys Stanley
F: Tom Curren, Beau Maister, Tom Lee
FOLL: Tom Hickey, David Armitage, Jarryn Geary
INT: Adam Schneider, Jack Newnes, Nathan Wright
SUB: Eli Templeton

Lenny Hayes, Leigh Montagna and rookie Maverick Weller are suspended for round one while Jack Steven and Sam Gilbert will miss with foot injuries. Sam Fisher is expected to be available after missing the pre-season games with hamstring soreness, while Tom Simpkin played two NAB Challenge matches and could play if the veteran doesn't. Luke Dunstan has been the pick of the draftees this pre-season and will press for selection while Jack Billings isn't out of the running either with both playing all three games. Melbourne won't have Mitch Clark or Chris Dawes in round one so Josh Bruce might have to wait for his debut while there is potential to elevate exciting midfielder Eli Templeton for Lewis Pierce after his impressive pre-season campaign. - Jennifer Phelan

 

[Manimal_Dunstan]

Sam Fisher shouldn't be in the round 1 squad unless he plays in the VFL practice match next week (i think).

He hasn't played since about Round 10 in 2013.