Preview Round 11: West Coast vs Essendon, Perth Stadium, Saturday 29/05/2021 @ 7:40 AEST

[eth-dog]

Observations

West Coast: The Eagles had a tight match against GWS, their losing margin of 16 was the highest for the game, with a whopping 13 lead changes throughout the game. Andrew Gaff was a feature on the wing, collecting 28 disposals and 4 inside 50's, whilst small forwards Jack Petrucelle and Jamie Cripps were the only multiple goal scorers for the Eagles.

Essendon: The Bombers led from start to finish against the hapless North Melbourne, kicking away to a 72 point victory. Andrew McGrath, Darcy Parish and Zach Merrett cut swathes through the middle, having a whopping 98 disposals and 18 clearances between them whilst up forward Peter Wright, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti and Harrison Jones kicked 3 goals apiece up front.


Head to Head (last 5)

West Coast 3-2 Essendon


Form Guide

West Coast: 3W 2L
Essendon: 3W 2L


Sportsbet odds

West Coast: $1.16
Essendon: $5.50
Line: 30.5 ($1.90)


Possible sides

West Coast vs Essendon

FB: Jordan Ridley - James Stewart - Jayden Laverde
FF: Oscar Allen - Josh J Kennedy - Liam Ryan
HB: Nick Hind - Aaron Francis - Mason Redman
HF: Jack Petrucelle - Jack Darling - Jamaine Jones
MF: Kyle Langford - Andrew McGrath - Brayden Ham
MF: Andrew Gaff - Jack Redden - Jarrod Brander
HF: Will Snelling - Patrick Ambrose - David Zaharakis
HB: Josh Rotham - Harry Edwards - Tom Cole
FF: Peter Wright - Cale Hooker - Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti
FB: Shannon Hurn - Tom Barrass - Brad Sheppard
OB: Andrew Phillips - Zachary Merrett - Darcy Parish
OB: Nic Naitanui - Tim Kelly - Dom Sheed
IC: Matthew Guelfi - Dyson Heppell - Nik Cox - Alec Waterman
IC: Jake Waterman - Elliott Yeo - Bailey Williams - Jamie Cripps
IS: Archie Perkins
IS: Jackson Nelson

West Coast in: Elliott Yeo; Out: Brendan Ah Chee (omitted)
Essendon in: Patrick Ambrose; Out: Harrison Jones (rested)


West Coast defence vs Essendon forward line

Essendon have been the second most efficient forward line in the league this season, kicking a goal 26.89% of the time it enters their forward 50. West Coast are currently the second worst defence in the AFL, conceding a goal 25.57% of the time it enters their defensive 50 so far this season. The main man inside 50 for Essendon will be Cale Hooker, the big key forward having 24 goals so far this year whilst Patrick Ambrose might get a chance this week, kicking 11 goals the past two weeks in the VFL, the pair likely to get Tom Barrass and Josh Rotham as their direct opponents, whilst Brad Sheppard will likely take Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, who has been the leading small forward this season with 25 goals and 9 goal assists.


Midfield/rucks battle

West Coast have been much stronger on the inside than Essendon have been this season, being 10th in both clearance and contested possession difference respectively, whilst the Bombers are languashing at 18th and 16th for those particular statistics. Tim Kelly has been West Coast's main inside midfielder this season, averaging 27.2 disposals and 6.6 clearances a game, with a strong support crew of Dom Sheed, Jack Redden and the potential return of Elliott Yeo around him. Darcy Parish will be the main inside midfielder for Essendon, averaging a whopping 29 disposals and 7.2 clearances a game, but Essendon lack the inside depth West Coast do, needing Andrew McGrath and Zach Merrett being the main support cast. Outside of the contest, Essendon should hold a slight advantage with the likes of Kyle Langford and Nik Cox returning to form alongside Brayden Ham, although Andrew Gaff is clearly the best outside mid on the two lists, with support from Jarrod Brander and maybe Jake Waterman. Rucks wise, Nic Naitanui is having another excellent season, and the young Bailey Williams will be a good back up against the solid but unassuming pair of Andrew Phillips and Peter Wright.


West Coast forward line vs Essendon defence

West Coast has been the most efficient in the AFL this season, kicking a goal 28.25% of the time it enters forward 50. Essendon have struggled defensively this season, conceding a goal 24.63% of the time they enter their forward 50, 15th in the AFL. Jack Darling has been in All Australian form so far this season, kicking 27 goals so far this season with 8 goal assists to boot, likely to get the much improved Jayden Laverde as his direct opponent, who has been getting quite a few big jobs this season. James Stewart will look to contain Josh Kennedy whilst Aaron Francis will take Oscar Allen. Liam Ryan came back last week and will probably cause a few headaches for dasher Nick Hind, who has been one of the recruits of the season so far.


X-Factor Player

Jamaine Jones has struggled to maintain a place in West Coast's side, but the young aboriginal looks like he might be taking a good step forward into securing his place up front for the Eagles


Key stat

West Coast: Clearances. If their midfield get on top, Essendon's defence will struggle to contain West Coast's excellent forward group.

Essendon: Forward efficiency. They're one of the strongest forward lines in the AFL and need to show it here if they're any chance of winning this.


Tip

Unfortunately I think West Coast's forward line will be too strong for the Dons, the Eagles to win 130 to 110.

 

[Milanista28]

Small chance in this, their form is strong at home but they've been off a lot this season.

Unlikely win but you never know

 

[BOMBERBLITZ]

Will need some bigger bodies. KEEP WATERMAN IN!

 

[JT_the_Man]

All signs point towards a shootout.

Should be fun, but I reckon we get done in the end.

 

[11kgm]

We will get destroyed they are unbeatable at home

If it was here I'd give us a chance

Phillips will get smashed

Their tall forward line will stretch our defence

Out Hooker
In Ambrose

 

[Duckworth]

I want to see who is umpiring before I decide if we are any chance.

 

[MiguelM]

Think the Weagles will be too good at home esp with Yeo likely to come back in.

Will be good to see how we fight it out though. Cox, Perkins & Jones exceeded my expectations by miles, so exciting. Backline starting to gel & Merrett, Parish killing it with McGrath seemingly through a lean patch.

Will be a great test against a side that rarely get beaten at home.

In: Ambrose
Out: Hooker (needs a rest IMO)

 

[Keystone agony]

No chance

Stringer reckons he's right. If he is, rest Perkins but I wouldnt bother taking Stringer give him another week to be 100% for tigers which we probably have more chance against

Swap Ham for Perkins

Would prefer Ambrose back instead of Stewart

 

[TheWeapon]

I want to see who is umpiring before I decide if we are any chance.

Cheerleader Margetts good for about 5 goals against

 

[MiguelM]

No chance

Stringer reckons he's right. If he is, rest Perkins but I wouldnt bother taking Stringer give him another week to be 100% for tigers which we probably have more chance against

Swap Ham for Perkins

Would prefer Ambrose back instead of Stewart

Yeah, no way they risk Stringer in this one. Will save for Dreamtime.

Maybe they rest either Jones/Perkins, but they seem pretty resilient atm.

Ambrose has trained forward all year so hard to see him replacing Stewart. Need the back 6 to be playing as many games together as possible IMO

All just a guess though, selectors been good though. No gifted games to anyone.

 

[Mikevk123]

In- Ham, Ambrose, Bryan
Out- Jones(rest), Hooker(rest), Perkins(sub)

2MP to play forward. Thoughts ?

 

[Arctic fox]

If it ain't broken......

 

[Tazdog]

BRING ON THE ****EN EAGLES

 

[Megabattimus]

My one selection note atm is that I really hope we keep Waterman in the team. It would mean the world to him and his family if he got to play in WA next weekend, especially against his younger brother and his dad's old team.

Imagine the scenes if he contributed to beating the team that delisted him (granted, they absolutely would've kept him had his glandular fever not being so bad). The good vibes generated from that would power Perth for a week.

 

[vass44]

Minimal changes to a winning formula.

OUT: Perkins - becomes SUB
IN: Ambrose - deserves a run after 11 goals in 2 weeks in reserves

Hooker stays in then rest him for the Dreamtime match so he effectively gets 3 weeks off then comes back in against the Hawks on 20th June

Team:

Francis Stewart Laverde
Redman Ridley Hind
Cox Heppell Merrett
Waterman 2MP Snelling
Jones Hooker Tippa

Phillips Parish McGrath

Bench: Langford Zakka Guelfi Ambrose
SUB: Perkins



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[JayJ20]

We're screwed if this is a wet weather game. Let's see if we actually learned anything from the Brisbane game.
If it's dry, I give us a chance in a shootout.

Ambrose's form is hard to ignore, but I don't know who would come out for him. Maybe Hooker or Jones are rested.

In: Ambrose
Out: Jones (managed), Ham
Sub: Jones

 

[Hird05]

Ambrose gotta play. If we lose a backman during the game he can go hold things up. I'd be resting Hooker over Jones. Mcgraths leadership and team first attitude passing to Jones I thought was great. Hooker refusal to see anyone on the feild when he has the ball even 60m out clearly beyond him not so great. He's playing to win that's great but I'd like to see him bring the kids into it a bit more. It's not like he's a great kick or anything.

 

[boncer34]

In- Ham, Ambrose, Bryan
Out- Jones(rest), Hooker(rest), Perkins(sub)

2MP to play forward. Thoughts ?

Where do you think he's been playing?

 

[Bombers36]

OUT: Perkins
IN: Ambrose, Stringer (SUB)

Team:

Francis Stewart Laverde
Reman Ridley Hind
Cox Heppell Merrett
Zakka 2MP Snelling
Jones Hooker Tippa

Phillips Parish McGrath

Bench: Langford Guelfi Waterman Ambrose
SUB: Stringer

 

[Petrify]

We have no chance of winning at Optus. Their forward line is going to eat us alive with how many i50s we leak. If we can keep the margin under 20 ill be happy.

Give Ambrose a run and rest Hooker this week imo

 

[JayDon]

OUT: Perkins
IN: Ambrose, Stringer (SUB)

Team:

Francis Stewart Laverde
Reman Ridley Hind
Cox Heppell Merrett
Zakka 2MP Snelling
Jones Hoooker Tippa

Phillips Parish McGrath

Bench: Langford Guelfi Waterman Ambrose
SUB: Stringer

Perkins SUB. Stringer in a week or 2.

 

[coastalpipeline]

We need to win this game. We can win this game. If we play well & lose I'll be happy, but we can make the naysayers yeahsayers by showing up & sticking a BIG ****U into the West Coast season....cos its the game changer we need for all of us.

 

[Bombers36]

Perkins SUB. Stringer in a week or 2.

Apparently Stringer is right to go so for me having him come in as SUB is perfect. He isn't the sort of player you need to bring back through the reserves, and as SUB he certainly wont have to play a full game, we can manage his minutes and swap him in to play the second half for someone who is 'injured' (i.e. Hooker)

 

[Doss]

Captain Positivity here, but we ain't winning this. Just be competitive, stick to the plans which are serving us pretty well and no injuries, thanks.

 

[Mercurial89]

The next two weeks are going to be extremely tough.
Eagles at home coming off a loss and tigers are due to get a lot of players back.

I'd like to just see the small things happening in this game, the blocking, the entries inside 50 etc.
The inside 50m stuff is something we need to continue to work on, perfect opponent as they will destroy us if we bomb in long.
McGrath showed some great signs and the entire midfield as a whole not bombing it out of packs in panic. I'd like to see that continue.

It doesn't have to be a win, but just have a good travel game. I'm not actually expecting a win.

I'd like Ham back in to run with Gaff as much a learning experience as anything.

Hold Stringer back at least a week.
Hooker has to travel I think. He will be very very important the next two weeks as both teams are incredible at intercepting, need him to be smart and take the number 1 as well as bring the ball to ground.

Keep all the youngsters in, only two weeks to go, two big primetime games, one being a travel game. Need that experience.

I'd almost go unchanged.