Preview Round 12, 2024: West Coast v St.Kilda - Optus Stadium - Saturday 1st June, 4.35pm AEST

[puppy_dog7]

In: Butler, Membrey, Paton, Crouch, Clark
Out: Collard, Caminiti, Bonner, Ross, Howard

Wilkie - Waterman
Battle - Darling
Webster - Ryan
Paton - Cripps

try isolate shrman as our interceptor. Played the role very well at Sandy the other week when thrown back in the 2nd half

Go small ball with King and Membrey our key Forwards. King to try and take McGovern away from the dangerous spots.
Owens, Butler, Higgins forward and isolate a resting mid deep (Henry, Steele)

midfield of Crouch, Clark, Windhager aka Tim Kelly

11

Tim Kelly

Age

30

Ht

184cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.6

5star

K

13.5

5star

HB

10.1

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

4.0

5star

CL

4.9

5star

D

19.9

5star

K

12.3

5star

HB

7.6

4star

M

3.1

3star

T

4.7

5star

CL

3.6

4star

D

21.6

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

11.2

5star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

3.8

5star

’s father (to go head to head with his son) and Stocker to tag Reid at stages.
Henry Steele and Sincs to rotate through at times but would like Sincs primarily creating with Nas off halfback.

 

[puppy_dog7]

out: of the lounge
in: to the shed

just a note
bonner is copping a lot

View attachment 2003346

I was all in on Bonner Pre season. Thought he looked the goods.

But he’s soft, cant defend and has at least a couple of horrendous decision making/skill errors each week that inevitably cost us a goal.

He has to go. Would much rather Paton come in and lock down on Ryan or Cripps etc and give more freedom to Nas and Sincs to be our prime movers.

 

[Miha]

I reckon sometimes you just fall in a heap in an AFL season. Form, injury, confidence, close losses, difficult fixture, lack of momentum etc. It's only a 1-2% difference between most clubs and you just get those seasons where none of it clicks. 2024 is one of those for the Saints. The Lions are going through it now too. The Pies went from a Semi in 2020 to 17th in 2021. Melbourne went from a Prelim in 2018 to winning 5 games in 2019, finishing 17th. Both clubs bounced back within a couple of years.

We are clearly not as bad as we have been playing (see 2023) and could easily have pinched another couple of wins in the first 6 weeks. Perception would be a lot different if we'd scored 1 more goal against the Bombers and Cats.

Interesting hearing Bucks say that cumulative 5 or 6 day breaks have a massive effect on 1st-4th year players and it's really only after 5 or 6 preseasons that you can meet the physical challenge. We had a lot of those short breaks early on with a very young team.

Our kids are good. Development is not linear. We are doing the hard yards to build a strong, talented young group as quickly as possible. Stick with it. Reckon we'll have some much happier days within the next 12 months.

In the meantime, we'd better bloody pick Crouch this week.

This is the correct take because I agree with it

 

[Gavinmitchell11]

Honestly, I’ll take a loss if we can just play watchable football. I’d rather lose by 30 and kick 15 goals than lose by 3 and kick another 7. Just give us some moments to make it worthwhile, please.

The club needs a good performance here, we are getting criticised by literally everyone in the football world.

 

[SteeleSaints]

Dead rubber who really cares anymore? At least now we can watch the games without any real expectations.

I get as much enjoyment out of following Rugby League and Super Rugby when the Saints arent going well.

 

[Mav3rick]

I wouldn't mind giving Collard another go in Perth against a weaker defence to really see what he can do. Whoever plays best out of Hotton and Butler likely comes in next week, both could probably use another week at Sandy anyway coming off injury. Crouch or Clark in, probably not both. Maybe Clark sub. Membrey's 6 goals looked better on the stats sheet than watching the highlights to be honest, really subpar defence against him, but will still come in.

Windy looks like he could use a rest, Stocker and Bonner shouldn't be in the same team I think one needs to go. Not sure what Seb's role is at the moment, or whether he really has one in this team anymore. Am I stupid for thinking we should still be favourites in this game?

 

[beside the seaside]

I reckon sometimes you just fall in a heap in an AFL season. Form, injury, confidence, close losses, difficult fixture, lack of momentum etc. It's only a 1-2% difference between most clubs and you just get those seasons where none of it clicks. 2024 is one of those for the Saints. The Lions are going through it now too. The Pies went from a Semi in 2020 to 17th in 2021. Melbourne went from a Prelim in 2018 to winning 5 games in 2019, finishing 17th. Both clubs bounced back within a couple of years.

We are clearly not as bad as we have been playing (see 2023) and could easily have pinched another couple of wins in the first 6 weeks. Perception would be a lot different if we'd scored 1 more goal against the Bombers and Cats.

Interesting hearing Bucks say that cumulative 5 or 6 day breaks have a massive effect on 1st-4th year players and it's really only after 5 or 6 preseasons that you can meet the physical challenge. We had a lot of those short breaks early on with a very young team.

Our kids are good. Development is not linear. We are doing the hard yards to build a strong, talented young group as quickly as possible. Stick with it. Reckon we'll have some much happier days within the next 12 months.

In the meantime, we'd better bloody pick Crouch this week.

It's a great point that will be lost to the extremely fickle AFL media.

At the end of the day we're in a form slump. Jeez as recently as round two this year we played great footy and knocked off the Pies at the G and everyone was on board. Now according to Lloyd and Cornes we're further from a flag than any team in the comp.

We need to find a way out of this slump and get something from this season, finals are gone but it doesn't mean the year has to be a waste. We just needs some signs that we can bounce like the teams you've mentioned.

We can't keep playing this dead crap footy all year, I refuse to believe that will happen or that its the way Lyon wants us to play. Things will click at some stage, hopefully this week.

 

[seasonedsainter]

All the injuries in the second half of the pre-season, the suspensions, the shocking first up draw with the travel and short breaks, did we even have a Bye was it in the first week or something so largely irrelevant? There's been a lot of factors this year and very very few have dropped our way.

Also I'll add I thought the umpiring in the Melbourne game was low-key shocking. But zero surprises there.

 

[Saintos The ITK]

Pretty much.

 

[The Punter]

The "list is further away than anyone" commentary is laughable when made about any club. It's hackery pretending to be analysis.

 

[EddieMurphy]

I agree
I’m not privy to why Bassett made the decision but I think our issues run deeper than train the skills and I’m sick n tired of blaming coaches when the obvious issues here lie in our playing list
Sitting at games watching AFL listed players grub a kick a ball along the ground or multiple times under nor pressure (last week) kick OOF or miss goals from 15 metres out OR continually handball to players feet OR make dumb decisions isn’t about game plan. I agree we need to invest in our development programs for sure but right now we carry too many sub standard players imo

Same guys had ok skills last year. Maybe it is psychological "spiralling" like Rooey said in an interview yesterday. Ross has unrealistic or hard expectations.

Around the 10m mark.

 

[Saintos The ITK]

I just want Windy to fold Cripps.

 

[Saint Watto]

I just want Windy to fold Cripps.

Now....that I'd like to see.

 

[Nutsngum]

Same guys had ok skills last year. Maybe it is psychological "spiralling" like Rooey said in an interview yesterday. Ross has unrealistic or hard expectations.

Around the 10m mark.

Its definitely a psychological thing. So many close losses eats at your confidence and the young kids are tiring and are just suffering more for it which overall is just bringing us further and further down.

I think had we managed to get over the top of GWS we would be sitting 6:5 right now and still alive in the season just because it would have been a massive confidence booster that they were capable.

 

[luca77]

Same guys had ok skills last year. Maybe it is psychological "spiralling" like Rooey said in an interview yesterday. Ross has unrealistic or hard expectations.

Around the 10m mark.

No matter how good your skills are, self doubt can be crippling. Same goes for guitar, tennis, all kinds of things.

It's one reason why we get a few late ones at the end or when coming from behind in general.

If the same applies to the season in general, we might sneak a run of good form in at some stage. Hopefully not long enough to impact our draft pick. Bottom 3 or it's a missed opportunity from here.

 

[TassieSaint]

Its definitely a psychological thing. So many close losses eats at your confidence and the young kids are tiring and are just suffering more for it which overall is just bringing us further and further down.

I think had we managed to get over the top of GWS we would be sitting 6:5 right now and still alive in the season just because it would have been a massive confidence booster that they were capable.

We definitely aren't as bad as we've been performing but you can see the players have completely lost confidence the last few weeks. A win against the Eagles in Perth could be huge for that. Eagles are another young side who are up and down, their best footy (with our worst) will put us to the sword so we need to start strongly this week and that needs to come from our senior players.

 

[The_Steadier]

Sinclair needs to be put back at hbf...if its not broke why fix it?

Because halfbacks dont win you games- midfielders do.

And sincs is the only bloke in our entire team that can regularly win a centre clearance.

Steele has attended literally triple the amount of centre bounces as sincs has this year- and has 5 more centre clearances to show for it (22 vs 17).

(Steele has attended 243 centre bounces to sincs' 83)

This is despite sincs having done no real proper, consistent training as mid and being thrown in and out of there ad-hoc week to week and often quarter to quarter.

Sincs' win rate of 20.5% from centre clearances this year to date is exceptional by league standards.
(all the more so while being thrown in there randomly and with no real training)

Cripps 35/252 = 14% win rate
Daicos 34/212 = 16% win rate
Bont 33/238 = 14% win rate
Rowell 31/255 = 12% win rate
Marshall 27/235 = 11% win rate
Steele 22/243 = 9% win rate
Etc etc.

For a team like us that is equal 18th in the league for centre clearances- why on earth wouldn't we play sincs in the centre square??!!

 

[The Punter]

Because halfbacks dont win you games- midfielders do.

And sincs is the only bloke in our entire team that can regularly win a centre clearance.

Steele has attended literally triple the amount of centre bounces as sincs has this year- and has 5 more centre clearances to show for it (22 vs 17).

(Steele has attended 243 centre bounces to sincs' 83)

This is despite sincs having done no real proper, consistent training as mid and being thrown in and out of there ad-hoc week to week and often quarter to quarter.

Sincs' win rate of 20.5% from centre clearances this year to date is exceptional by league standards.
(all the more so while being thrown in there randomly and with no real training)

Cripps 35/252 = 14% win rate
Daicos 34/212 = 16% win rate
Bont 33/238 = 14% win rate
Rowell 31/255 = 12% win rate
Marshall 27/235 = 11% win rate
Steele 22/243 = 9% win rate
Etc etc.

For a team like us that is equal 18th in the league for centre clearances- why on earth wouldn't we play sincs in the centre square??!!

What are Sinclair's non-centre stoppage numbers like? Perhaps there is a strategy where he can attend centre bounces and then swap back to the HBF and be replaced by someone who is better at ball-up and throw-in stoppages.

IMO this is the sort of innovative thinking we need to grab on to.

The downside of Sinclair as a mid is that his disposal hasn't been at the same level. Sinclair may be a better defender than replacement mid, but how much effective defending can one do from a conceded centre clearance as a non-KPD?

This might be a way to replace Bonner with someone like Hunter Clark, who starts at centre bounces at HBF then swaps with Sinclair immediately (or as soon as practicable) and is an around-the-ground mid.

 

[ThomasR]

Steele has attended literally triple the amount of centre bounces as sincs has this year- and has 5 more centre clearances to show for it (22 vs 17).

Interesting numbers, but worth noting that you can get a centre clearance without attending the centre bounce, which could distort his numbers a bit (e.g. half backs like Whitfield, Dan Rioli, Houston, Nic Newman, Nic Martin all have 3+ centre clearances without attending a single centre bounce this year). Not sure how many of Sinclair's clearances fit into this category, but on a low sample could make a difference.

Steele's numbers are not helped by a ruckman who loves to just hoof it out of there

 

[The Punter]

BTW Marshall much more likely to clear the ball himself from a non-centre bounce stoppage.

 

[CaptainRisky]

I wouldn't mind giving Collard another go in Perth against a weaker defence to really see what he can do. Whoever plays best out of Hotton and Butler likely comes in next week, both could probably use another week at Sandy anyway coming off injury. Crouch or Clark in, probably not both. Maybe Clark sub. Membrey's 6 goals looked better on the stats sheet than watching the highlights to be honest, really subpar defence against him, but will still come in.

Windy looks like he could use a rest, Stocker and Bonner shouldn't be in the same team I think one needs to go. Not sure what Seb's role is at the moment, or whether he really has one in this team anymore. Am I stupid for thinking we should still be favourites in this game?

Collard has done nothing to warrant a game , we need to stop gifting games

 

[luca77]

Because halfbacks dont win you games- midfielders do.

And sincs is the only bloke in our entire team that can regularly win a centre clearance.

Steele has attended literally triple the amount of centre bounces as sincs has this year- and has 5 more centre clearances to show for it (22 vs 17).

(Steele has attended 243 centre bounces to sincs' 83)

This is despite sincs having done no real proper, consistent training as mid and being thrown in and out of there ad-hoc week to week and often quarter to quarter.

Sincs' win rate of 20.5% from centre clearances this year to date is exceptional by league standards.
(all the more so while being thrown in there randomly and with no real training)

Cripps 35/252 = 14% win rate
Daicos 34/212 = 16% win rate
Bont 33/238 = 14% win rate
Rowell 31/255 = 12% win rate
Marshall 27/235 = 11% win rate
Steele 22/243 = 9% win rate
Etc etc.

For a team like us that is equal 18th in the league for centre clearances- why on earth wouldn't we play sincs in the centre square??!!

Surely these would be amongst the first statistics that our coaching staff would be looking at when making these decisions.
It's quite bizarre that this can be the case and they still feel he's better used elsewhere.
To be a fly on the wall as they say...

 

[SaintSteele9]

My brother is in Perth for work this week and says it’s bloody miserable weather, might be pretty wet for the game. Have yourself a game Jack Higgins

 

[ThomasR]

Surely these would be amongst the first statistics that our coaching staff would be looking at when making these decisions.
It's quite bizarre that this can be the case and they still feel he's better used elsewhere.
To be a fly on the wall as they say...

Went back and had a look at these 17 clearances.

5 of them, he is starting at half back, so his actual CBA win% is 14%

Of the remaining 12, I could only find one effective kick - with a minute left on the clock vs Fremantle. The rest are indiscriminate toepokes off the ground (all ineffective), handballs to Marshall/Steele, or round the corner bombs to half forward resulting in turnovers.

Quantity does not equal quality, and rarely have his clearances ended up to our advantage. Would much rather him distributing off half back than trying to extract.

 

[The Jack]

View attachment 2003670
Pretty much.

No mention whatsoever about Hugo?

Hey track watchers, has Hugo trained this week? It's all a bit odd.