Preview Round 16, 2023 : Hawks v Blues, 1:10pm Sunday 2nd July, MCG

[barbster]

Since the two ruck option is not working at the moment, I wonder if it would be worthwhile having them play a half each.
Ie. Meek to start and go as hard as possible knowing that he only has a half of footy, then Reeves comes in fresh at half time. This would see us have an extra mid for the majority of the game.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

V ​

Intro
We come into this game off a thumping at the ends of Gold Coast, whereas Carlton come off the dreaded bye! Their last game came against Gold Coast, where they gave them the same treatment Gold Coast gave us. Circles and round abouts much!!

Sunday 1.10pm at the MCG.

Weather
For this Sunday against Carlton, BOM has it as 13 and partly cloudy with no chance for rain. So a good day for footy, but a little chilly

Head to head
Round 3 2022 – lost to the Blues away 73-74 (played at the MCG)

Round 10 2021 – lost to the Blues away 63-86 (played at the MCG)

Round 9 2020 - beat the Blues away 89-58 (played at Optus...) fun year hey?!

Round 6 2019 - beat the Blues at home 93-88 (played in Tassie)

Round 18 2018 - beat the Blues away 124-52 (played at Marvel)

Took some inspiration from another board for this one in particular, playing 4-5 games as the "away" side. 1 in Tassie, 1 in Perth (lol) and 1 at Marvel. With the other 2 being at the MCG, where we were the "away" side. Finally a change and we come into this as the home team!!

But head to head really isn't giving us much, we barely lost to them last year. And beyond 2021 it is quite irrelevant, especially for us.

Recent form

HAWTHORN
Lost to the Suns by 67, beat Brisbane by 25, lost to Port by 55, beat St Kilda by 10 & West Coast by 116. 3-2 in our last 5.
CARLTON
Beat the Suns by 59, lost to Essendon by 34, lost to Melbourne by 17, lost to Sydney by 26 & lost to Collingwood by 28. 1-4 in their last 5.

Carlton were in some terrible form, they had no real structure, gameplan and their whole team was out of sorts, from a selection POV and their intensity. But with 2 players dropped notably Silvagni, they came back and beat the Suns at the MCG. But as we know, teams like the Suns are quite poor away from home & especially at the MCG compared to Marvel.

We were in some good form, but with Sicily being rubbed out (bullshit) we dropped big time in games against Port & the Suns, but with positives (the first quarter v Gold Coast and 2nd half v Port) although minimal. An inconsistent and young side, one hard to tip.

Carlton Board
Relatively indifferent, most seem to believe it'll be a harder game and a close contest. With Mitchell likely to fire the side up, especially with his post match comments on the workrate. Although i believe the players will do that themselves, as seen by Will Day's interview. You get the odd one who believes they'll belt us, but for the most part, they think it'll be a close game, but they are obviously confident in getting a win.

The Team Changes


OUT

• Bramble
• Frost

IN

• Ward
• DGB

Sub: Butler

The Team Comparisons

BACKLINE V FORWARDLINE
Blake Hardwick/Jack Martin - James Blanck/Charlie Curnow - Jack Scrimshaw/David Cunningham
Seamus Mitchell/Matt Owies - Denver Grainger-Barras/Harry McKay - Josh Weddle/Tom DeKoning


MIDFIELD V MIDFIELD
Karl Amon/Sam Docherty - Will Day/Adam Cerra - Josh Ward/Blake Acres
Ned Reeves/Marc Pittonet - Conor Nash/Patrick Cripps - Jai Newcombe/Sam Walsh

FORWARDLINE V BACKLINE
Dylan Moore/Adam Saad - Jacob Koschitzke/Mitch McGovern - Connor MacDonald/Jordan Boyd
Luke Breust/Nic Newman

24

Nic Newman

Age

32

Ht

186cm

Wt

80kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.7

5star

K

13.7

5star

HB

5.9

4star

M

5.5

5star

T

3.3

5star

MG

400.8

5star

D

7.5

2star

K

6.5

3star

HB

1.0

1star

M

2.0

2star

T

1.0

2star

MG

157.0

3star

D

22.4

5star

K

12.8

5star

HB

9.6

5star

M

5.4

5star

T

3.6

5star

MG

387.8

5star

- Mitch Lewis/Jacob Weitering - Tyler Brockman/Brodie Kemp

INTERCHANGE
Lloyd Meek - Cam MacKenzie - James Worpel

5

James Worpel

Age

26

Ht

186cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.5

5star

K

12.2

5star

HB

11.3

5star

M

2.9

3star

T

4.5

5star

CL

5.1

5star

No current season stats available

D

15.6

4star

K

6.2

3star

HB

9.4

5star

M

1.0

1star

T

3.2

5star

CL

1.8

4star

- Jarman Impey - Sam Butler
Lachie Fogarty - Matt Kennedy - George Hewett

29

George Hewett

Age

29

Ht

187cm

Wt

87kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.7

4star

K

7.4

3star

HB

10.3

5star

M

2.7

3star

T

4.1

5star

CL

3.3

5star

D

13.8

3star

K

4.8

2star

HB

9.0

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

2.8

4star

D

11.2

3star

K

7.8

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

3.4

4star

T

4.0

5star

CL

0.4

3star

- Jaxon Binns - Paddy Dow

15

Paddy Dow

Age

25

Ht

184cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.1

4star

K

7.0

3star

HB

7.1

4star

M

2.1

2star

T

2.9

4star

CL

2.6

4star

D

7.0

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

3.0

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.0

3star

CL

0.0

1star

D

12.4

4star

K

5.8

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

1.6

2star

T

2.8

5star

CL

2.6

5star

Comments
There's a few.

Hardwick and the fellow small defenders will have time a little easier with Carlton's small forwards, they are less of a livewire group and more of a hard working and high pressure group. Martin is the experience down there from a small/medium group so Hardwick will take him, and Owies is probably the next best who goes to Seamus, although not worried, and i hope those two can work off offensively. Scrimshaw will likely find himself playing on a tall at some stage, swapping with Weddle on TDK or rotating on the two big boys, but will start on a smaller type, one of the boys will (Scrimshaw/DGB or Weddle). With Blanck taking deepest option and DGB taking McKay, i assume it's Curnow FF and McKay CHF.

Midfield wise, Carlton's strength, but also ours. Gold Coast were able to spread and our lack of workrate as a whole was super poor and we were out ran and worked, we are a high athletic team with endurance, speed & power as mentioned pre game, so there is no excuse and i expect a response. The Carlton midfield group are slower than Gold Coast's however and are more contested based.

The rucks will have work cut out with Pitto who is a good ruck & TDK using his athleticism in there. Reeves has a big game coming up and hoping to see them work well together, Reeves needs to feed us first use and Meek needs to use his body around the ball and around the ground with Reeves getting dangerous deep forward.

The midfield group will fire up and we need Worpel/Nash to get to work on the inside, bringing in Ward will bring in bonafide class but he's also tough, a leader and a high worker so he'll be handy as a mid rotation and on the wing. Get the ball in his, Newcombe's and Day's hands and let them go inside 50, with Moore/MacDonald working up the ground to be extras around the stoppage and streaming inside 50 using their class and ball use also, especially MacDonald with his speed and xfactor.

Nash will find his way on Cripps, it's a very good matchup and otherwise Adam Cerra is the one for Carlton who is going really well and has been consistently damaging and at a ball winning high all year.

Our forwardline lacked pressure so it'll be important for Brockman, Moore (when he is down there, likely to play more forward and hopefully not run up as much with Ward coming in) aswell as hopefully Breust when it's in his area, but also MacDonald.

Our midfield also helping push up to provide additional pressure. The main issue with the forwardline was the lack of cohesive movement, it wasn't on all day from back 50 to the midfield, and even when we go it there, it'd be us kicking to out numbers. Small forwards against interceptors and talls and a lack of working and moving. There's not much to take out of the Gold Coast game. We just need to work hard, pressure and the rest will come, there's enough talent down there.

We need the leaders to stand up, from Amon, Impey, Breust (had poor games v Gold Coast) to our young leaders. Mitch Lewis, Dylan Moore

13

Dylan Moore

Age

25

Ht

177cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.9

3star

K

5.1

2star

HB

6.7

4star

M

4.4

4star

T

2.9

4star

G

0.3

3star

No current season stats available

D

12.2

3star

K

6.0

3star

HB

6.2

4star

M

5.4

5star

T

2.8

5star

G

0.4

3star

, Will Day, Jai Newcombe, Ward & Hardwick etc.

Sam Butler will be key as the sub.

Result
Realistically, Carlton probably take it away. But we will be competitive and in the game i assume, and i hope.

Head says Carlton by 13

But heart says Hawthorn by 21.

 

[westhawk]

OUT

• Bramble
• Frost
• Meek

IN

• Ward
• DGB
• Butler (full game)

Maybe Kosi out too.

Sub: unsure

Perfect outs and ins.

 

[MasterSamurai]

Maybe Weddle gets a week off to get ward in and McKenzie and McDonald keep playing. I don't see how bramble doesn't get the chop this week either.
In
Ward
Dgb

Out
Bramble
Weddle
Wouldn't mind seeing Wingard get a go at the 'G' in front a solid crowd to prove his worth .

 

[extractasam]

Think we’ll be stretched in the talls department. If we can’t get it done at stoppages the score could blow out very quickly however I expect us to kick a better score than last week.

Blues pretty easily for mine but I’ll be there hoping for a Brisbane like result

 

[toomanysquibs]

Which version of the Hawks and Blues is going to show up?

If we're on the clock for four quarters we're an even chance to win.

Carlton love a good run on, and they got one going against the Suns that was particularly devastating. We've been susceptible to that, we need to take it off the table or it's game over man. Will it be last week's Blues, or the Blues of the two months prior?

Either way our midfield needs to work harder, marks needs to be held, ball use needs to be cleaner transitioning out of the back half.

 

[tommyk72]

Maybe Weddle gets a week off to get ward in and McKenzie and McDonald keep playing. I don't see how bramble doesn't get the chop this week either.
In
Ward
Dgb

Out
Bramble
Weddle
Wouldn't mind seeing Wingard get a go at the 'G' in front a solid crowd to prove his worth .

Not sure I see why Weddle is getting the chop? Thought he played bloody well - and not just for a guy with under 10 games under his belt.

 

[FB19]

In Ward long DGB
Out bramble mackenzie frost
How can DGB be any worse than frost? And who cares if he is.
Would also give Reeves a rest he’s giving us little around the ground.

 

[FB19]

Not sure I see why Weddle is getting the chop? Thought he played bloody well - and not just for a guy with under 10 games under his belt.

Weddle has been good and he started really well but he had 1 touch in the second half that doesn’t equate to playing well in this game. That said he stays in and I have very high hopes for him but he a lot to learn about usable running patterns. Thank god he’s 18!

 

[caseman2]

I understand Frost can be frustrating but anyone who saw the Box Hill game on Sunday - DGB was putrid - got absolutely dominated!
I'm a fan and really want him to succeed and agree we need to get games into him but lets bring him in when his confidence is up and he doesn't have a Curnow or McKay to deal with

 

[grumbleguts]

I understand Frost can be frustrating but anyone who saw the Box Hill game on Sunday - DGB was putrid - got absolutely dominated!
I'm a fan and really want him to succeed and agree we need to get games into him but lets bring him in when his confidence is up and he doesn't have a Curnow or McKay to deal with

Agreed, at the game it was even worse.

 

[rei154]

Would be very surprised if Frost goes out tbh- if anything we need to add height to our backline as opposed to detract.
Ins:
Ward, Stephens, DGB
Outs:
Kosi (omm), Bramble (omm), Mackenzie (omm)

Stephens to start as sub, Butler into the starting lineup- maybe Wingard in for him.

 

[SSSSSS]

Would be very surprised if Frost goes out tbh- if anything we need to add height to our backline as opposed to detract.
Ins:
Ward, Stephens, DGB
Outs:
Kosi (omm), Bramble (omm), Mackenzie (omm)

Stephens to start as sub, Butler into the starting lineup- maybe Wingard in for him.

Please please please lets not go back to playing one key forward again.

Give Lewis a chance.

 

[lethalselbow]

Surprised at the calls for Scrim to be dropped. Seemed to make a few errors yesterday but stats suggest he went at 90% from 31 possies. That’s not bad going.

Recon if we can free him up a little more, be could play the Sicily floating role.

And there’s no way CJ is coming straight in even if he’s fit.

Not so surprising. He did okay, but i reckon his effort levels look off at times. Needs to go harder more often.

I'd rather have a player with less ability being more desperate than a player with more ability and less desperation.

 

[Roger Rogerson]

I understand Frost can be frustrating but anyone who saw the Box Hill game on Sunday - DGB was putrid - got absolutely dominated!
I'm a fan and really want him to succeed and agree we need to get games into him but lets bring him in when his confidence is up and he doesn't have a Curnow or McKay to deal with

Putrid is over the top.

He showed some glimpses of his intercept marking ability, was clean by foot and kicked a goal.

The side got absolutely smashed.

I don't want to see him as our 2nd tall I want to see him as our 3rd tall.

 

[SJT76]

Ward in looks like the obvious call. I’d normally think that would be for Bramble, but Bramble was not bad in comparison to a few others. Maybe Ward for Frenchie.

I’m also in the “play DGB” camp. Don’t mind for who.

Overall, think that Sam backs them in to turn it around.

 

[Roddy]

We all know what the post-bye win-loss stats are, but does anyone know what the stats are for teams bouncing back to win after the inevitable post-bye loss?

 

[CHUBBSS]

Personally think we should have day as a permanent backman while Sicily is out, provides some calm and good decision making we lack with Sicily out.

Think the team will bounce back but it won’t happen if we run around in panic mode with no Sicily

 

[TylerDurden]

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

CJ will play wing at Box Hill, is what I’ve heard.

 

[Big Hotdog]

You’re kidding yourself if you think he gets offered a ”holiday”.
That was a fair hip & shoulder, & made no contact with the head.

More fearful than kidding myself.
After the Sicily fiasco nothing would suprise me.

 

[Cyril says]

Would love to see Wingard get a game - he chose to stay and I respect that.

Anyone know anything about Finn Maginness? He’s dropped off the radar for me and I must have missed why.

 

[CHUBBSS]

CJ will play wing at Box Hill, is what I’ve heard.

This is exciting news, would be a nightmare to defend

 

[The Spirit of Cricket]

DGB is close but we shouldn't be giving players games "just cos". They gotta earn it. I want him to get a spot in the 22 that's his, not just warming Sicily's seat.

 

[Rob R]

In Ward, DGB
Out Bramble, Frost.

CJ and Wingard need to perform for Box Hill first as they should have been dropped for form before getting injured.

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