Game Day Round 2 vs. St Kilda, MCG, 7:30pm Thurs 21/03

[BuildEmUp]

Out Johnston in mcinnes
Out Dean in jiath
Out Markov in noble
Out pendles (managed) in Sullivan

and Macrae??? ( Jiath wont be playing this year ..)

 

[Dead Eye Didak]

Doesn't matter who comes in, we just need to win. I think the club and supporters have had a very ordinary week, last week. Firstly with the flag unfurling matter, then the selection of Macrae and then starting him as the sub, the poor performance against Sydney and ending the week with the disgusting abuse of AJ on social media. We need to get back on track as a club, and as members and supporters.
In terms of the game, one move l would make is putting Naicos back to HB, we need his creativity when going forward. This will also open up a spot for Macrae in the midfield, and we can get him actually starting on field....

 

[No SPIN]

They have big key forwards who can occasionally kick bags of goals. We do not apart from a battered & bruised & over-worked Mihocek. I am not overly optimistic. The small forwards & the mid-fielders & resting rucks will have to kick quite a few goals to get us over the line. Goodnight & good luck.

Let’s be rational.
In the GF BNE had the same supposed advantages, and we beat them.

 

[No SPIN]

I think Sydney were really ******* good and are going to take some beating. They smashed us everywhere other than stoppage - and at stoppage they had their 3 best inside mids injured...

We also won CP.

 

[sr36]

We also won CP.

I think if you broke it down it would have been all stoppage. Felt like they won contested possessions in the arcs pretty easily. Stoppage wins only matter if you can get an effective release from stoppage and their pressure was too good for us to do that.

 

[BuildEmUp]

But last year we were one of the very good teams and we always won. This year other teams are the very good teams and we are losing - we could not lose more convincingly to them than we are either. We are being smashed. Playing two very good teams that soundly beat us currently places us third in a competition with other teams that could prove equally good and destroy us on the field, leaving us to finish somewhere near the bottom.

With no Murphy and a very ordinary Dean playing the crucial Murphy role down back, and a chap in the forward line barely able to win the odd ball that drops directly into his hands, armed with only a spot of poise and elegance against an opponent who will beat him pointless in every other aspect of the game, I'd say we'll be a dying carcass picked over each week by vultures in club jumpers intent on removing every morsal of flesh from our exposed bones.

Then when you add the blokes over 30, all busy dying rather than being born, we're in a bit of bother.

By year's end we will be psychologically and physically destroyed.

There's the glass half empty view of our prospects. Now come back at me with the half full version.

thinks of teh draft ickes we will get then, ...

 

[No SPIN]

Not sure what all the hysteria is about:

Our:

• defensive structures have failed in both games - that’s not an aging list issue.
• Conversion I50 has gone from best in the AFL to close to the worst- that’s not an aging list issue
• We we’ve won CP and Clearances in both games despite our “aging mids” With Sidey clocking up the most km’s in GWS game.

Unless we truly believe the first 2 issues can’t be fixed and we’ll continue to turn the ball over in as high rates as that against the Swans - then the by any rational assessment it’s NOT panic stations.

 

[sr36]

Really? If all 5 were on offer right now I’d go:

1. Heeney
2. Mills
3. Warner
4. Parker
5. Adams

Adams injury was shitful timing because I reckon he gets squeezed out to a peripheral role once he’s back.

I’m largely buying that we’ve lost to two legit teams, but the way we’ve lost is super concerning. We barely gave a yelp on Friday and the form line of our past 10 might actually be a decent indicator now of where we’re at. If St Kilda can break that first defensive line I think we’ll be in big trouble because right now we have just two players in form (Daicos and Cameron).

I'd throw Gulden in too when they put him in the centre square, but I meant hard bodied grunt. The fast elusive skillful guys like Warner and Gulden are better players and get you better clearances, but Adams, Parker and Mills will get their hands on the footy in congestion more often - more clearances.

Heeney is just a star whatever the role or however they use him.

 

[No SPIN]

I think if you broke it down it would have been all stoppage. Felt like they won contested possessions in the arcs pretty easily. Stoppage wins only matter if you can get an effective release from stoppage and their pressure was too good for us to do that.

At their peak a few years ago we beat Melb by neutralizing their stoppage game by outnumbering on the outside of stoppage.
This was evident in the Swans strategy when they continually intercepted our first hands.

 

[TheGreatGrundy]

thinks of teh draft ickes we will get then, ...

We'll probably throw them away on tubby midg*t forwards and more slow mids. We seem to hate having a number 1 pick in our possession.

 

[whiskeytown]

Not sure what all the hysteria is about:

Our:

• defensive structures have failed in both games - that’s not an aging list issue.
• Conversion I50 has gone from best in the AFL to close to the worst- that’s not an aging list issue
• We we’ve won CP and Clearances in both games despite our “aging mids” With Sidey clocking up the most km’s in GWS game.

Unless we truly believe the first 2 issues can’t be fixed and we’ll continue to turn the ball over in as high rates as that against the Swans - then the by any rational assessment it’s NOT panic stations.

Fair points… certainly some structural issues and mistakes made at the selection table- these as you point out can be fixed

but additionally the pressure has been lower… which equates to hunger and ageing legs of having 9 players over 30 play vs swans

- this cannot be so easily fixed when there are only a handful of players outside the 22 that are ready for senior football in 2024

 

[sr36]

At their peak a few years ago we beat Melb by neutralizing their stoppage game by outnumbering on the outside of stoppage.
This was evident in the Swans strategy when they continually intercepted our first hands.

Tigers used to lose stoppage too, but they won scores from stoppage, because they set up to defend and attack from stoppage rather than just get the first possession.

 

[Bianconeri]

They're not allowing us and didn't for the second half of last year.

Teams were winning by pushing a forward and defender to the edge of congestion - teams who tried to create the plus 1 from that by having their opponent remain behind or ahead of the contest were getting smashed in the midfield, having their defensive lines broken and losing.

Okay you mean an extra number compared to the opposition not just an extra number added on to the regular mids. Either way the issue is still exacerbated by selecting less midfielders and more traditional half forwards and half backs.

 

[No SPIN]

Fair points… certainly some structural issues and mistakes made at the selection table- these as you point out can be fixed

but additionally the pressure has been lower… which equates to hunger and ageing legs of having 9 players over 30 play vs swans

- this cannot be so easily fixed when there are only a handful of players outside the 22 that are ready for senior football in 2024

What is your hunger metric?

 

[sr36]

Okay you mean an extra number compared to the opposition not just an extra number added on to the regular mids. Either way the issue is still exacerbated by selecting less midfielders and more traditional half forwards and half backs.

Are we picking less mids?

Looks much the same to me. In terms of our standard 18 - First half of last year it was Adams pushing up into the midfield from the forward line - now it's Lippa. In defence it was Nick and now it's Crisp. And Oleg has replaced Noble. A drop in quality in those roles, but the fact that it's no longer an extra number is more of an issue in terms of the pace of the blokes who are in the midfield.

 

[Bianconeri]

Are we picking less mids?

Looks much the same to me. In terms of our standard 18 - First half of last year it was Adams pushing up into the midfield from the forward line - now it's Lippa. In defence it was Nick and now it's Crisp. And Oleg has replaced Noble. A drop in quality in those roles, but the fact that it's no longer an extra number is more of an issue in terms of the pace of the blokes who are in the midfield.

We also had WHE at half forward pushing to the wing allowing Josh Daicos to play behind the stoppage. Now he’s at half back.

Even though Noble doesn’t fit the strict definition of mid, I’d still argue we’re a mid down with that change. Oleg is more of the traditional outside running half back where as Noble can push up to the stoppage and receive at the back with pressure.

And Crisp as spent some time at half back but he’s still gone into the middle but collectively the time our roaring mid has spent at half back collectively is down from where it was last season with WHE’s move to defence.

IMO it’s less of a pace issue and more of a support issue. Our links from the forwardline and backline to the midfield are to disconnected.

 

[whiskeytown]

What is your hunger metric?

Pressure acts.
1%’s
Two way running

I don’t have the stats on hand but I imagine these numbers are all lower than usual under McRae

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

I liked your post for the bolded. He hasn’t played much footy and it feels about the right time to say you’ve had the taste let’s build you up at VFL level.

That said I’ll stick up for him and I agree less with the Heeney stuff. Murphy was equally exposed in 2021 and wasn’t clear best 23 until mid 2022 so that can turn really quickly.

I’m more looking at the significant drop in form of Crisp, Steele, IQ and Moore which is putting pressure on our weakest link. I don’t think that’s a reason to add another player to the list and is more about demanding more from those 4 to support a kid in his first few games.

I'm referring to the Heeney situation as the moment I personally thought maybe he should go and ply his trade in the VFL

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

Doesn't matter who comes in, we just need to win. I think the club and supporters have had a very ordinary week, last week. Firstly with the flag unfurling matter, then the selection of Macrae and then starting him as the sub, the poor performance against Sydney and ending the week with the disgusting abuse of AJ on social media. We need to get back on track as a club, and as members and supporters.
In terms of the game, one move l would make is putting Naicos back to HB, we need his creativity when going forward. This will also open up a spot for Macrae in the midfield, and we can get him actually starting on field....

Honestly I'm starting to think we may need to send Nick back to Half back as well

 

[swoop42]

While I don't anticipate the Saints to be as good this season as the two Sydney teams we've just played, it's not hard to see another loss coming unless we see a real improvement.

The Saints pushed us to the line in round 5 last season and that was during a period we had displayed some winning form in the lead up.

A Ross Lyon coached side as we know will always look to make you earn every score while in the bit of the Geelong game I saw they appeared to have a desire to slingshot off half back with speed.

Given how our defence has been sliced open these past 2 weeks I can see that causing us problems unless we see better structure and system in place come Thursday night.

To be honest our problem between the big sticks at each end right now is quite possibly down to what's going on between our ears and you only have to look at the opening round clash between Brisbane and Carlton to see a perfect example of how much the game is played above the shoulders.

Carlton looked a basket case, as good as 8 goals down before the game was flipped on it's head in the space of a quarter.

It was the same 23 players, on the same ground and on the same night so what was the reason for this?

The answer.

Attitude and effort.

Time for the real Collingwood to rise up.

 

[No SPIN]

Pressure acts.
1%’s
Two way running

I don’t have the stats on hand but I imagine these numbers are all lower than usual under McRae

Re two way running - our total km were 280 v Swans 281
Average speed in defence was 7.7km/h v Swans 7.8
Average speed in attack 8.0km/h v Swans 7.8
High speed k's - 38k's v Swans 40 k's

 

[Run n Spread]

Finals last year in particular the GF we won clearances or broke even clogging the oppos mids enabled a transition break to our open forwards and Hill in particular capitalised and mc stay in pf before injury.
Even than our defense was vulnerable on fast breaks.
What sides are now doing is
A not letting an open forward line develop robs space for the smalls.
B spreading the ground. When ball is won their mids sprint out wide and our oldies can't keep up. (Also means back's can't set up).
While this is fixable not sure the old game plan will work. Needs tweaking. Still got the players and a graders to be up there but need an injection of speed and mode of delivery into the forwards.
Really miss Murphy (was also close to bog in gf b4 concussion)

 

[Jen2310]

We def cant underestimate the saints. they almost beat Cats in Geelong, which is a hard task to achieve.

 

[whiskeytown]

Re two way running - our total km were 280 v Swans 281
Average speed in defence was 7.7km/h v Swans 7.8
Average speed in attack 8.0km/h v Swans 7.8
High speed k's - 38k's v Swans 40 k's

1% are down 9 per game according to footywire.

I would like to see data on pressure acts

Most supporters seem to feel that the effort is slightly down this year

 

[Scodog10]

I'm referring to the Heeney situation as the moment I personally thought maybe he should go and ply his trade in the VFL

No I got that I was only suggesting that it was 45 matches ago that was happening with Murphy and that shifted real quick once the system around him was sorted. KD is a role that is very reliant on what’s happening further afield and the guys that are capable can find their feet quickly (I think the club thinks Dean is capable).