Review Round 3 = Collingwood 72-73 Brisbane

[sr36]

You know it’s ridiculous these journos etc use ‘average’ as a measure. It’s grade 6 analysis. Certainly not a good representation to draw a meaningful conclusion from.

Yep, You'd have to weight the players value to the team to really see which teams are aging. I'm pretty confident that we'd come in as an aging team by a metric that did that.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

The issue is that of all the under 25s on our list, Maynard, Daicos and probably Noble are the only ones that you can be confident will play 100 games - and they're all flankers. We've got noone under 25 who you can be confident will play a core role. Our core is an aging core and our under 25s are very speculative.

We might lack under 25's but we arent too badly off in the over 30's department either. Sidebottom Howe and Pendlebury are the only three "core" players in that age bracket and all seem to have at least 2 seasons in them if not three. The others in that age group (Roughy Mayne Greenwood ) are more replaceable.

Over seasons 2021 and 2022 we need to see a decent hit rate of 4-5 excellent players out of the eleven players we have picked up in the last two drafts. Thats not counting a few others like Murphy T Brown and Keane who could also easily make the grade, and not counting the two Academy players we will pick up next year.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Yep, You'd have to weight the players value to the team to really see which teams are aging. I'm pretty confident that we'd come in as an aging team by a metric that did that.

Only Pendlebury genuinely is in the "aging valuable players" catergory. Howe and Sidey have barely turned 30.

 

[sr36]

Over seasons 2021 and 2022 we need to see a decent hit rate of 4-5 excellent players out of the eleven players we have picked up in the last two drafts. Thats not counting a few others like Murphy T Brown and Keane who could also easily make the grade, and not counting the two Academy players we will pick up next year.

It's a possible hit rate, but the odds are against it. It's a matter of crossing our fingers and hoping. We're behind the eight ball and need a lot to go right in order to just tread water.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

It's a possible hit rate, but the odds are against it. It's a matter of crossing our fingers and hoping. We're behind the eight ball and need a lot to go right in order to just tread water.

Cant see why it isnt possible. I think if we avoid injuries that will be a big bonus... because our current core list is perfectly good enough as long as our depth isnt challenged too soon before these kids are ready.

Picking up two or three very good players out of the 6 top 31 picks isnt hoping for too much. Add Daicos and another third or fourth year player to make the grade and our transition is almost complete...with a free agent thrown in for good measure.

 

[Billys Back]

Yep, You'd have to weight the players value to the team to really see which teams are aging. I'm pretty confident that we'd come in as an aging team by a metric that did that.

No I mean even something as simple as the ‘mean’.

 

[Carringbush2010]

Only Pendlebury genuinely is in the "aging valuable players" catergory. Howe and Sidey have barely turned 30.

Howe 31 in 3 months, Sides before next season.

 

[sr36]

Only Pendlebury genuinely is in the "aging valuable players" catergory. Howe and Sidey have barely turned 30.

We have a core that are in the right age bracket for contention. If we're lucky, kids will come on really quickly and we'll be in contention, but the odds are that we've missed the boat and by the time any hits come through our core will be on the downward slope.

We're not without hope, but it's a long shot.

 

[sr36]

No I mean even something as simple as the ‘mean’.

The mean is the measure they use as an average.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Howe 31 in 3 months, Sides before next season.

Exactly, barely turned 30.

 

[Carringbush2010]

Cant see why it isnt possible. I think if we avoid injuries that will be a big bonus... because our current core list is perfectly good enough as long as our depth isnt challenged too soon before these kids are ready.

IF we had depth, players like the hyphen, JT and the browns wouldn't be getting games every week. We don't have depth, and that is the difference between us and good sides.

The question is why don't we and the answer is easy, but just as difficult to accept.

 

[Carringbush2010]

Exactly, barely turned 30.

Not exactly gonna get better or be part of our next flag though, and really that's what the whole competition is about. So tell us what we've got to look forward to.

 

[sr36]

Cant see why it isnt possible. I think if we avoid injuries that will be a big bonus... because our current core list is perfectly good enough as long as our depth isnt challenged too soon before these kids are ready.

Picking up two or three very good players out of the 6 top 31 picks isnt hoping for too much. Add Daicos and another third or fourth year player to make the grade and our transition is almost complete...with a free agent thrown in for good measure.

Yes it's possible. I think we've got a premiership core, but then we drop straight off. So 5 solid players could get us there. But you've really got to expect a 3 year time frame before any of our drafting hits are solid contributors. It's unlikely that enough will come through before the core declines. So I think it's most likely that our timing will be out - even if we smashed this last draft.

 

[Billys Back]

It's a possible hit rate, but the odds are against it. It's a matter of crossing our fingers and hoping. We're behind the eight ball and need a lot to go right in order to just tread water.

I completely disagree and actually think that there is no consideration given to future years. You seem to be focusing on 1 year when in actual fact it’s ongoing with potential A grade players coming in Yr 2 or Yr 3 making a significant impact and changing the whole dynamic.

I don’t think we have taken an enormous risk in the 2020 draft. In fact, the risk would have been to do nothing and not bring in 4 first round draft picks.

We weren’t going to contest for the flag with basically the same team and 1 first round pick. So if not, it’s best to do something about it now or feel a lot more pain for a longer period later.

The chances of finding a couple of gems in 2020 and starting it now rather than later is what the club needs. Bring in Daicos in 2021 and maybe a free agent and already the team is looking like being on the road to set up the next challenge. We may have a Gray in 2022 while the kids are developing which could earn us a top 5-10 pick which will continue the build out.

Basically took Port 1 good draft. An aging list that looked much worse than ours is now dynamic after 1 good draft.

Make no mistake, the start of the clean out in 2020 was a necessity. It’s only the start I think of a 3 year process.

 

[Billys Back]

The mean is the measure they use as an average.

So Pendles and Mayne have been excluded?

 

[sr36]

I completely disagree and actually think that there is no consideration given to future years. You seem to be focusing on 1 year when in actual fact it’s ongoing with potential A grade players coming in Yr 2 or Yr 3 making a significant impact and changing the whole dynamic.

I don’t think we have taken an enormous risk in the 2020 draft. In fact, the risk would have been to do nothing and not bring in 4 first round draft picks.

We weren’t going to contest for the flag with basically the same team and 1 first round pick. So if not, it’s best to do something about it now or feel a lot more pain for a longer period later.

The chances of finding a couple of gems in 2020 and starting it now rather than later is what the club needs. Bring in Daicos in 2021 and maybe a free agent and already the team is looking like being on the road to set up the next challenge. We may have a Gray in 2022 while the kids are developing which could earn us a top 5-10 pick which will continue the build out.

Basically took Port 1 good draft. An aging list that looked much worse than ours is now dynamic after 1 good draft.

Make no mistake, the start of the clean out in 2020 was a necessity. It’s only the start I think of a 3 year process.

I also think we had to hit the draft. I think our issue was that we got nothing from the draft for years and also destroyed our depth due to the salary cap bungle. Which has us in a precarious position where a heap needs to right to stop us having a bottom 8 run in the near future. But hitting the draft like we did has given us a shot at pulling off a quick rebuild. Personally I would have kept the first rounder though.

 

[sr36]

So Pendles and Mayne have been excluded?

That's not the mean - you want outliers excluded - trimmed mean - but I don't know why you'd exclude one of our 5 most important players in Pendles when measuring whether our team is aging.

 

[Billys Back]

That's not the mean - you want outliers excluded - trimmed mean - but I don't know why you'd exclude one of our 5 most important players in Pendles when measuring whether our team is aging.

Do you not understand standard deviation?
The comment was on an aging list. And you are comparing it with other lists. So yes based on ‘age’ you don’t pick and choose.
Forget it.

 

[No SPIN]

He's not a free agent lol, clutching at straws there spinny.

mate read between the lines - why would an outstanding operator chose to come to Coll and preside over a Department that will be trading and building a list with one hand tied behind its back.
Why would he make such a poor career decision, given his reputation could have attracted a large number of offers.

He’s not a fool to not have considered all issues.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Its not a lot to expect 2-3 hits from that draft. We have done it in the past

Pendlebury thomas
Reid Dawes Brown
Sidebottom Beams

 

[sr36]

Do you not understand standard deviation?
The comment was on an aging list. And you are comparing it with other lists. So yes based on ‘age’ you don’t pick and choose.
Forget it.

I've taught G12 stats - so yes I do. You're not using the term mean or standard deviation correctly. Measuring standard deviation wouldn't exclude Pendles - it would just make our standard deviation higher and frankly Pendles and Mayne aren't really outliers in terms of age on any team - it's a pretty tight range of ages who play AFL. And if you removed the 30+ outliers you'd also remove the teenage outliers and it'd be a completely pointless exercise as Sydney would end up having a similar metric to Geelong.

I'm not commenting on the age of the list - I'm commenting on the age of the team - and I have no idea why statistically you'd exclude Mayne and Pendles and include the youngsters - many of who will probably not become a regular part of the team. In terms of the team, those on the list you'd exclude when measuring our age, are all the youngsters.

To statistically measure the age of our team, you'd need to come up with a metric that weights each player and their contribution to the team. Without having done so, it's pretty clear that many of our prime movers are in the second half of their careers and some are likely to stop being prime movers within the next 3 years.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

IF we had depth, players like the hyphen, JT and the browns wouldn't be getting games every week. We don't have depth, and that is the difference between us and good sides.

The question is why don't we and the answer is easy, but just as difficult to accept.

I’m not going to enter another lame “ every week” debate when the week is barely three weeks in.

Yes we can’t afford injuries or a drop in form from players because we don’t have the depth. It’s a similar situation to what we had last year but the huge difference is that the players in the VFL have nothing but upside.

The depth “problem “ might quickly prove to be nothing to worry about.

 

[Carringbush2010]

I’m not going to enter another lame “ every week” debate when the week is barely three weeks in.

Yes we can’t afford injuries or a drop in form from players because we don’t have the depth. It’s a similar situation to what we had last year but the huge difference is that the players in the VFL have nothing but upside.

The depth “problem “ might quickly prove to be nothing to worry about.

Well that all depends on the 'when' and how many, our blue chip stars aren't gettin any younger.

God I hope you're right.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Well that all depends on the 'when' and how many, our blue chip stars aren't gettin any younger.

God I hope you're right.

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I don’t see this “ aging stars” story like others. Maybe I’m naive but I really think Sidey and Howe have plenty of years left. Pendles is the only one genuinely in that bracket and he’s showing no signs of needing to retire.

The others who are 30ish are foot soldiers who are easily replaced.

 

[mike123]

As well as he played Howe started the rot by giving away a dumb free kick for them to directly goal off.

Might seem harsh, but the team has always lacked a ruthless edge and takes the foot off and has costly avoidable mental lapses.

Langdon not rushing the behind in the 18 grand final similarly got west coast back in the game.

It’s all the vanilla all rounders that we carry, that Hine keeps recruiting and Bucks keeps persisting with.