Round 3 trades

[clogwearer]

LOL!

I actually didn't trade Zorko out of my team.

The Infamous Roughead/Zorko trades of 2 years ago went like this -

Out Roughead, In Zorko

Then a week later

Out - Can't remember who it was (some spud) and In - Roughead

So I had Roughead and Zorko in my team for the rest of the year at that point on. LOL!

What changed in the space of that week, if you don't mind me asking?

The sun did rise, and then did set. And this happened seven times. And the seventh rising and setting of the sun was a harbinger, signalling the coming of the next trade period.

 

[Faz 2000]

No you shouldnt take it as gospel but he is playing well in the seconds and building fitness .. why did you select him in the first place if you knew he wasnt going to play in the first couple rounds ?

If you have Petracca already (odd, given Melbourne fully ANNOUNCED he wouldn't play for 5 weeks), why trade him out now? He's 2 weeks closer to playing and from all reports is way the hell too good for VFL.

He's a glorious downgrade option for around cow culling time.

 

[Ingy]

No, the weight is not subjective. It is a formula that is calculated live. The inputs to the formula are the time left in the game and the current margin. Nearly 2000 events per game go into ranking points across all players, and every event has a different weight applied.

The exact formula for the weights is considered commercial IP, but it is along the lines of:
(1+PDF(Current Margin)/C)/2 where C is a constant and PDF is the normal PDF with a mean of zero and a standard deviation proportional to the percentage of game time left at the time the stat happened.

It's great to have CD answering questions. Good on you guys.

Could I ask a specific one? Pendles was 97 at 3QT I believe, and finished on a pre-scaled 103. So he made six points, i.e. did nothing, while the game was being won and lost in the last quarter.

He received 7 scaling points. Can you explain this? I would have expected him to go down a little if anything

 

[big bootaaaaah]

No, the weight is not subjective. It is a formula that is calculated live. The inputs to the formula are the time left in the game and the current margin. Nearly 2000 events per game go into ranking points across all players, and every event has a different weight applied.

The exact formula for the weights is considered commercial IP, but it is along the lines of:
(1+PDF(Current Margin)/C)/2 where C is a constant and PDF is the normal PDF with a mean of zero and a standard deviation proportional to the percentage of game time left at the time the stat happened.

Ah now it all makes sense. I can't believe it was that simple.

 

[hoddo]

Those considering trading out Shaw should think again. Last season he started with 5 scores under 100 in the first 10 games including a 69 and an 85 in the first 4 rounds. That didn't stop him finishing with a 112 point average. Those figures may have been a good argument for making him an upgrade target instead of a starter, but if you do have him you certainly can't trade him out on the basis of a couple of below par performances.

 

[carnthemlions]

I think a lot of us are planning on him to be dropped, yes. Saints supporters would know more but Acres especially I think was impressive in the VFL. I think the Saints are past the stage of gifting games for the sake of gifting games so unless Gresham is fulfilling those coaches intangibles and playing to his role etc (which we have no idea about) I think it'd be likely he is dropped.

Seems to have been spending a lot of time in the forward pocket- not particularly encouraging.

 

[The_Steadier]

No, the weight is not subjective. It is a formula that is calculated live. The inputs to the formula are the time left in the game and the current margin. Nearly 2000 events per game go into ranking points across all players, and every event has a different weight applied.

The exact formula for the weights is considered commercial IP, but it is along the lines of:
(1+PDF(Current Margin)/C)/2 where C is a constant and PDF is the normal PDF with a mean of zero and a standard deviation proportional to the percentage of game time left at the time the stat happened.

Thanks for this excellent insight.

 

[Mitchell54]

Should I take this as gospel?

It's a rookie adjustment. By the time Petracca plays Hartley could have made 150-200k and be ready for a downgrade....

Wait until teams come out. if Petracca plays he will only be 1 week behind hartley. there will most likely be only 50k difference if he plays

 

[leng jai]

Those considering trading out Shaw should think again. Last season he started with 5 scores under 100 in the first 10 games including a 69 and an 85 in the first 4 rounds. That didn't stop him finishing with a 112 point average. Those figures may have been a good argument for making him an upgrade target instead of a starter, but if you do have him you certainly can't trade him out on the basis of a couple of below par performances.

Where was this reminder before the season started so we all could have started with out him and brought him in for 550k as the first defender upgrade mate?

 

[FAILTOSUCCEED]

Where was this reminder before the season started so we all could have started with out him and brought him in for 550k as the first defender upgrade mate?

Plenty of people said it, plenty didn't listen.

He will be one of my first upgrades I reckon.

 

[The_Steadier]

It's great to have CD answering questions. Good on you guys.

Could I ask a specific one? Pendles was 97 at 3QT I believe, and finished on a pre-scaled 103. So he made six points, i.e. did nothing, while the game was being won and lost in the last quarter.

He received 7 scaling points. Can you explain this? I would have expected him to go down a little if anything

CD Have always stated the live scoring is not set in stone, because post scoring adjustments occur.
I believe they do score finalisation/settling at HT full time obviously... But other scores between these periods are subject to change.

Basically- don't get too hung up on live scores being exact.

 

[Big Fozza]

Petracca is set to play in the next coming weeks, surely thats why you selected him in the first place .. because you knew he was an automatic selection when fit ? Bit pointless burning a trade on him IMO

He played a half of footy on the weekend and the club is looking at a "no rush" rd5/6 return. That's a rd 8/9 first price rise. Bunch of rookies to be done mooing by then.

Thought he'd be back this week or next, poor research on my part. Wish I hadn't started with him.

i've got petracca as well. if he's not on the team sheets this week then will seriously consider chucking him. before i selceted him i knew there was the risk but it was one (of many) that i took in the hope he would be back earlier and it would give me a trade up on the competition.

 

[Pedsy]

Ummm,
Bartel > Johannisen
Gresham > BenKen

Be kind.

Edit: I've got, and am holding onto, Barlow.

 

[hoddo]

LOL!
I actually didn't trade Zorko out of my team.
The Infamous Roughead/Zorko trades of 2 years ago went like this -
Out Roughead, In Zorko
Then a week later
Out - Can't remember who it was (some spud) and In - Roughead
So I had Roughead and Zorko in my team for the rest of the year at that point on. LOL!

What changed in the space of that week, if you don't mind me asking?

Probably Roughead going from a 52 in round 11 to a 184 in round 12

 

[Big Fozza]

Ummm,
Bartel > Johannisen
Gresham > BenKen

Be kind.

definately the 2nd trade - the first one i could take it or leave it. have you done any other correction trades? if not then go for it. if you have already done 2 last week you might just need to suck it in... if you think they'll averrage the same from here then i don't think the price difference is worth it. if you don't think they will then pull the trigger

 

[arsene wenger1]

Sam Mitchell or jj

That is the question

 

[enobrien]

Rocky > Bachar sound alright? Im not jumping on JJ, but I already have Rance, Laird and Heater.

 

[clogwearer]

Sam Mitchell or jj

That is the question

If that's the case, it needs a question mark.

 

[Jars458]

Well I have had enough of prevaricating. Trades done. Rockliff to JJ via Lonegran, and Barlow to Mithcell via Menadue. Will enjoy having those lads in my team.

 

[clogwearer]

Rocky > Bachar sound alright? Im not jumping on JJ, but I already have Rance, Laird and Heater.

Depends how it leaves your mids, I guess. Shoring (not suring, people) up your backline early isn't the worst idea this year.

Edit: And I haven't really loooked at Houli this year but he's also probably not the worst option around. I've been jammed tight in the JJ train for weeks and it's a bit hard to see out the windows from here.

 

[hoddo]

Where was this reminder before the season started so we all could have started with out him and brought him in for 550k as the first defender upgrade mate?

It wouldn't have come from me ... I started with him too. One of the outcomes of having to cram my usual months of research into a couple of weeks

The point is, if you have him, you keep him.

 

[ROOINYOU]

this is gonna be a huge round in SC trades wise...some people will burn, while the others will laugh and point fingers at the burning.
Barlow hold/trade??,rocky hold/trade??,do you bring in JJ?? or pass on Parker/Libba before $ rise??...all have good arguments.
To trade out Shaw though?you gotsta be kidding me!!!

 

[enobrien]

Depends how it leaves your mids, I guess. Shoring (not suring, people) up your backline early isn't the worst idea this year.

Edit: And I haven't really loooked at Houli this year but he's also probably not the worst option around. I've been jammed tight in the JJ train for weeks and it's a bit hard to see out the windows from here.

Yeah can't convince myself to have Rancey and Houli just yet. My mids will be a bit short if i do that too. Rocky > Cripps im leaning towards. Anyone (besides bias Blues fans) think Cripps will finish top 10 mids this year?

EDIT: Im loving the fact that he only managed 18 possies against the Swans, but still pulled out the ton based off of 10 tackles. Machine.

 

[FAILTOSUCCEED]

Yeah can't convince myself to have Rancey and Houli just yet. My mids will be a bit short if i do that too. Rocky > Cripps im leaning towards. Anyone (besides bias Blues fans) think Cripps will finish top 10 mids this year?

Cripps hasn't set the world on fire in the first 2 rounds, but has still scored 100+ each week due to CP and tackling.

Waiting for a big juicy game, I have him.

 

[Pedsy]

definately the 2nd trade - the first one i could take it or leave it. have you done any other correction trades? if not then go for it. if you have already done 2 last week you might just need to suck it in... if you think they'll averrage the same from here then i don't think the price difference is worth it. if you don't think they will then pull the trigger

No trades yet.
I can't afford the second without doing something like the first.