Round 3 trades

[juddola]

Sarcasm or you really think so? Pulled out two tons so far. Not many other reliable options for me south of 550k. Im stumped what to do with Rocky. Logics would maybe say bench him and get covered by a rook, but im chasing points as im 750th overall.

haha def sarcasm. I've got him, probably hasn't looked as match fit as he can be but that just shows his scoring ability so I'm quietly confident a huge score is on the way.

I'm in the same boat, do I bring in JJ and Ben ken for cash purposes or bring in Grey for points and maybe leave JJ until next week. Cant decide.

 

[iDon]

OK, however many possessions he's had, does this graph tell me he's a slow old crab I should immediately abandon, or that he's just had a crumby start and he's about to start pumping out tons like Steve Smith?

I come here for ANSWERS, not data I have to analyse myself!

Crumby start is my answer with different game plan. But don't let me stop you trading him out.

 

[Faz 2000]

Some people are suggesting that he's not scoring because he's been being played in the forward line and would perform better in the middle. The heat map suggests he has been seen in the middle quite a bit.

Does this help you any further?

It does. It's one vote in the "he's an old slow crab I should immediately abandon" column.

I really should rename that column, it's a nightmare in Excel...

 

[cdcanman]

I was going to flip Barlow for Papley (the key rookie I missed) and then look at either replacing Rockliff or taking Gresham up to a premo, but now there's heat charts and a range of 26-38 possessions and I have no idea what's going on...

If I go down this path, any recommendations on:

Barlow -> Papley
+
Rockliff -> Gray
or
Gresham -> Parker/Ward (keep Rocky)

If you have the means to cull a premo (Barlow) and also upgrade to a premo (Parker/Ward) while also keeping Rocky, then I think it makes sense to hold onto him. One in, one out, leaves you no worse than you were. Conserve a trade, especially if he doesn't play this week and therefore doesn't lose value.

 

[cdcanman]

Yeh you're right about that heat map, doesn't look like he could spend more time in the middle! Haha maybe he should get forward!

Maybe he lost a contact lens in the centre circle and he is spending his time looking for it. Explains why he has hardly got near the pill.

 

[Runner up]

Round 2 vs Suns
Round 1 vs Bulldogs

 

[superfraser]

Depends how it leaves your mids, I guess. Shoring (not suring, people) up your backline early isn't the worst idea this year.

Edit: And I haven't really loooked at Houli this year but he's also probably not the worst option around. I've been jammed tight in the JJ train for weeks and it's a bit hard to see out the windows from here.

I prefer to Shaw up my backline.

 

[ldamico]

Barlow to JJ
Rocky to Papley
>550k in the bank

Hopefully Gresham plays this week, generate some $$$, so that next week I can boot him out for any premo I want.

 

[j0rdy1]

Nah.

He's a MID/FWD.

Went 121, 161, 46, 82, 99, 113, 59, 93, 12 (sub), 131, 110, 81, 47, 128, 99, 94, 159, 56, 104, 162, 121.

How the **** a bloke scoring 121, 128, 131, 159, 161 and 162 averages less than 100 is beyond me, but Zorko managed it.

The very definition of a rollercoaster.

He is a MID/FWD but you would never pick him as a MID hence why I said FWD. 2015 he went 93, 105, 62, 115, 88, 96, 48, 83, 57, 93, 95, 91, 119, 124, 124, 145, 96, 61, 134, 117, 157, 109, 95.

So he played the full 22 games and for a FWD (because thats where you would pick him as) he only scored 4 'terrible' scores all year. Yes you don't want 80s but 80s aren't the end of the world and he averaged 101 on the year. His a premo forward pick and consistent imo.

 

[LuvtheKangas]

No, the weight is not subjective. It is a formula that is calculated live. The inputs to the formula are the time left in the game and the current margin. Nearly 2000 events per game go into ranking points across all players, and every event has a different weight applied.

The exact formula for the weights is considered commercial IP, but it is along the lines of:
(1+PDF(Current Margin)/C)/2 where C is a constant and PDF is the normal PDF with a mean of zero and a standard deviation proportional to the percentage of game time left at the time the stat happened.

Appreciate you taking the time to provide some information. The commercial IP argument is eminently reasonable, so full scoring tables are not going to be released and that's fair enough.

However, I do think you've tried a little too hard to make this look super-sophisticated and beyond the grasp of the everyday footyhead. Just dropping the formula there without defining terms is not particularly helpful. For example, C is a constant - but a constant related to what? PDF is 'normal' PDF (standardised to a mean zero normal distribution, which presumably explains dividing by 2, yeah some of us get this stuff) but what does it stand for? Points Differential Factor? Portable Document Format?

I'm not trying to be critical, or attempting to catch CD out, but the mystery of player scores is a weakness of the SC game and you could address this weakness by explaining a little more without disclosing your IP.

 

[Keg on legs]

Sarcasm or you really think so? Pulled out two tons so far. Not many other reliable options for me south of 550k. Im stumped what to do with Rocky. Logics would maybe say bench him and get covered by a rook, but im chasing points as im 750th overall.

If you're 750th overall you should be giving me advic!!!

 

[Hairy Lager]

With so many people trading out premos for downgrades those with a full squad of premos could get a nice buffer this week if all goes well.

 

[schnoods]

Round 2 vs Suns
View attachment 232985 Round 1 vs Bulldogs
View attachment 232984

That technology would be really handy for swimming pool owners.

 

[enobrien]

haha def sarcasm. I've got him, probably hasn't looked as match fit as he can be but that just shows his scoring ability so I'm quietly confident a huge score is on the way.

I'm in the same boat, do I bring in JJ and Ben ken for cash purposes or bring in Grey for points and maybe leave JJ until next week. Cant decide.

If you missed Ben Ken definitely bring him in and Robbie. Im a massive JJ advocate but I wont jump on until I see how he goes this week. Too risky for mine.

If you're 750th overall you should be giving me advic!!!

Haha I just consider myself lucky man! Only second serious year of SC and I lucked out on not getting Fyfe, Pendles or Barlow. Although ill be looking at Fyfe for a possibility, I just dont think he'll ever play a full season. I still need advice!!!!

 

[gutsroy]

Appreciate you taking the time to provide some information. The commercial IP argument is eminently reasonable, so full scoring tables are not going to be released and that's fair enough.

However, I do think you've tried a little too hard to make this look super-sophisticated and beyond the grasp of the everyday footyhead. Just dropping the formula there without defining terms is not particularly helpful. For example, C is a constant - but a constant related to what? PDF is 'normal' PDF (standardised to a mean zero normal distribution, which presumably explains dividing by 2, yeah some of us get this stuff) but what does it stand for? Points Differential Factor? Portable Document Format?

I'm not trying to be critical, or attempting to catch CD out, but the mystery of player scores is a weakness of the SC game and you could address this weakness by explaining a little more without disclosing your IP.

Not my area of expertise, but assume pdf = probability density function aka probability distribution function, no?

 

[catstragic]

With so many people trading out premos for downgrades those with a full squad of premos could get a nice buffer this week if all goes well.

Why?
Most of my rookies have higher averages than my premos

 

[Hairy Lager]

Why?
Most of my rookies have higher averages than my premos

True but based on averages these premos will out score a rookie.

 

[The_Steadier]

Appreciate you taking the time to provide some information. The commercial IP argument is eminently reasonable, so full scoring tables are not going to be released and that's fair enough.

However, I do think you've tried a little too hard to make this look super-sophisticated and beyond the grasp of the everyday footyhead. Just dropping the formula there without defining terms is not particularly helpful. For example, C is a constant - but a constant related to what? PDF is 'normal' PDF (standardised to a mean zero normal distribution, which presumably explains dividing by 2, yeah some of us get this stuff) but what does it stand for? Points Differential Factor? Portable Document Format?

I'm not trying to be critical, or attempting to catch CD out, but the mystery of player scores is a weakness of the SC game and you could address this weakness by explaining a little more without disclosing your IP.

By the same logic a weakness of KFC chicken is that dastardly colonel not telling us his 11 herbs and spices.

Enjoy the chicken my friend!

The result is that the SC scoring method results in a very decent, reliable, consistent numerical valuation of influence on a football match.

Which is no mean feat given the incredible number of human factors and subjectivity in play every game.

 

[dash555]

G'day Dash,
I vote #3
Keeping rocky, rich and Barlow doesn't seem like the right move. Keep Barlow as he is at least fit and will play. Is rich to JJ an option?

Rich to JJ is an option, in which case what do you drop in Option 3 if this is the case. Cheers for the feedback.

 

[LuvtheKangas]

Not my area of expertise, but assume pdf = probability density function aka probability distribution function, no?

Aah, yes, that would be it. It's been a while since I was on top of this stuff.

I'd be interested to know what the C is, then.

 

[LuvtheKangas]

By the same logic a weakness of KFC chicken is that dastardly colonel not telling us his 11 herbs and spices.

Enjoy the chicken my friend!

The result is that the SC scoring method results in a very decent, reliable, consistent numerical valuation of influence on a football match.

Which is no mean feat given the incredible number of human factors and subjectivity in play every game.

Not really, my logic explicitly acknowledged their entitlement to retaining / not disclosing the IP. But overall your point is well made.

And just on your analogy, let's hope the SC system is not akin to the KFC secret recipe as solved in Futurama:

 

[OneEyedHawk]

Am I crazy to be considering rage-trading Jimmy Bartel to JJ...or trying perhaps to turn Rocky into JJ? (What is the prognosis with Rocky BTW?) I don't normally jump off premo's so hastily, but don't like the look of Jimmy really at all thus far. Would love some input of what, if any, corrective trades I need to make this week. Reasonable if unspectacular start to the season, nil trades, $22k in bank. Scores of 2240-odd and 2212 last round. Overall rank: 3572.

B: H Shaw, Laird, Bartel, MAdams, Dea, Hartley (M Bown & Wagner)
M: Danger, GAJ, SMitchell, Rocky, Liberatore, BenKen, Hewett, Oliver (Davis, Gresham, Keays)
R: Goldstein, Blicavs (Grimley)
F: Martin, Montagna, Dalhaus, Franklin, Kerridge, Papley (Menadue & McTip)

Any input much appreciated.

 

[Jars458]

Does replacing a premo forward (Barlow) with Mitchell mean that you now have to play a lower scoring forward rookie (perhaps Menadue) on field, and push a higher scoring mid rookie (perhaps Kerridge/Mills type) languishing on the bench? Would replacing Barlow with another premo forward avoid this eventuality?
I'm guessing obviously as I can't see your team, just got me thinking

Rejigged slightly to use the DPP FDW Mid on advice from an old work mate. Adams now at F6. Left Lonegran in the Def and traded Rockliff straight to Mitchell.

 

[heatedwire]

Round 2 vs Suns
View attachment 232985 Round 1 vs Bulldogs
View attachment 232984

Not agreeing that he was playing in the midfield looking at these heat maps.

Just shows how much of the ball was in the bulldogs forward line - with all the Freo forwards pushing up as they were completely starved of ball.
The next week more in the forward line as you would expect in a game they scored more in.

He's been in the forward line, he's slow, and thats a recipe for disaster when Ross is trying to be quicker to attack based on slower ball movement in the past.

 

[Champion_Data]

Appreciate you taking the time to provide some information. The commercial IP argument is eminently reasonable, so full scoring tables are not going to be released and that's fair enough.

However, I do think you've tried a little too hard to make this look super-sophisticated and beyond the grasp of the everyday footyhead. Just dropping the formula there without defining terms is not particularly helpful. For example, C is a constant - but a constant related to what? PDF is 'normal' PDF (standardised to a mean zero normal distribution, which presumably explains dividing by 2, yeah some of us get this stuff) but what does it stand for? Points Differential Factor? Portable Document Format?

I'm not trying to be critical, or attempting to catch CD out, but the mystery of player scores is a weakness of the SC game and you could address this weakness by explaining a little more without disclosing your IP.

Sorry for the maths-speak.

normal PDF = probability density function for the normal (gaussian) distribution. Also known as a 'bell-curve'.

C is a constant, which means it's a set number that re-scales the result. It is a number close to 0.01.