Preview Round 6: Essendon vs Collingwood, MCG, Monday 25/04/2022 @ 3:20 PM

Winner and Medal?

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eth-dog

eth-dog

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Jan 11, 2007
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Last Week

Essendon: The Bombers had a terrible loss to Fremantle, conceding 10 goals to 3 after half time to round out 48 point losers to the Dockers. Dyson Heppell had 34 disposals off half back whilst Nic Martin and Alec Waterman had 2 goals apiece inside fifty in a disappointing day for the Bombers.

Collingwood: Collingwood had a close loss to Brisbane on Thursday, the Pies staying in touch the entire game but struggling to get a lead. Jack Crisp was excellent in the midfield, collecting 36 disposals and 11 clearances, whilst Jordan De Goey was the main threat inside 50 with 4 goals in what nearly won them the game.


Head to Head (last 5)

Essendon 3-2 Collingwood


Form Guide

Essendon: 1W 4L
Collingwood: 2W 3L


Possible sides

Essendon vs Collingwood

FB: Jeremy Howe - Jordan Roughead - Brayden Maynard
FF: Kaine Baldwin - Peter Wright - Alec Waterman
HB: Nick Daicos - Darcy Moore - Scott Pendlebury
HF: Matthew Guelfi - Harrison Jones - Archie Perkins
MF: Steele Sidebottom - Taylor Adams - Josh Daicos
MF: Sam Durham - Andrew McGrath - Nic Martin
HF: Beau McCreery - Nathan Kreuger - Jack Ginnivan
HB: Dyson Heppell - Brandon Zerk-Thatcher - Jordan Ridley
FF: Jordan De Goey - Darcy Cameron - Brodie Mihocek
FB: Jake Kelly - Zachary Reid - Jayden Laverde
OB: Brodie Grundy - Jack Crisp - Patrick Lipinski
OB: Sam Draper - Darcy Parish - Jye Caldwell
IC: Reef McInnes - Oliver Henry - Will Hoskin-Elliott - Isaac Quaynor
IC: Ben Hobbs - Dylan Shiel - Mason Redman - Nik Cox
MS: John Noble
MS: Tom Cutler

Essendon in: Baldwin, Jones, Reid; out: Andrew Phillips (hamstring), Devon Smith (knee), Nick Hind (omitted)
Collingwood in: Mihocek, McCreery, Ginnivan, Henry; out: Mason Cox, Jack Madgen, Callum Brown, Tom Wilson


Collingwood defence vs Essendon forward line

So far this year, Essendon have been the 6th least efficient forward line in the AFL, kicking a goal 21.69% of the time it enters their forward 50, below the league average of 23.32%. Collingwood are 15th in the defensive efficiency stat, conceding a goal 26.97% of the time it enters their defensive 50. Peter Wright had a very strong first 4 games before getting held goalless last week so will be keen to rebound, and the key forward kicked 6 goals in his two starts against Jordan Roughead last year, who is likely to get the match up again for the Pies, whilst young forwards Harrison Jones and Kaine Baldwin might come in after an impressive games in the VFL, and most likely get the match ups from Darcy Moore and Jeremy Howe, whilst Brayden Maynard will try to quell Alec Waterman after he kicked 4 goals last time against them.


Midfield/rucks battle

Essendon are one of the worst teams in terms of clearances and contested possessions difference this year, being 17th and 18th for the pair respectively whilst the Pies have been much better, currently 11th and 9th for the statistics respectively. The bombers will be hoping that their big names in the middle will start to fire defensively and offensively, with Dylan Shiel being the most consistent of the four inside mids of him, Darcy Parish, Jye Caldwell and Andrew McGrath, whilst Jack Crisp will be the leader on the inside for the Pies with support coming from Taylor Adams and Patrick Lipinski, the former Dog having been very solid for the Pies so far this year. On the outside Nic Martin has been very good so far for Essendon but will start receiving more physical attention after some flaws were exposed against Fremantle, whilst the Pies will be looking to the experienced Steele Sidebottom to control the outside. As far as rucks go, Sam Draper has been in a form slump whilst Brodie Grundy has been returning to his best recently, so expect a tough assignment for the young ruck for Essendon.


Collingwood forward line vs Essendon defence

Collingwood are mid table in terms of goals/inside 50, kicking one 23.1% of the timeit enters their forward 50. Essendon's defence has been very leaky, conceding a goal 27.77% of the time, 16th in the AFL currently. Brodie Mihocek is probably the best forward for the Pies, and might get attention from Jayden Laverde, who has been in a form slump so far this year so might get a change as to who he plays on, whilst Zach Reid may come back for his second game against big forward/ruck Darcy Cameron, who impressed last year but hasn't had the best year so far in 2022. Of course you need to also pay attention to Jordan De Goey, the mid sized forward/mid extremely dangerous for the Dons, who will be hoping recruit Jake Kelly can nullify his impact.


X-Factor Player

19 year old Jack Ginnivan has been very good for the Pies this year with his run and ability to hit the scoreboard, look for himto provide a spark for the Pies this week in what will be the biggest game of his career so far.


Key stat

Essendon: Goals/inside 50. Last year they were very effective in this area, this year the struggles have been there. Need to get on top of Collingwood's somewhat leaky defence.

Collingwood: Clearances. They have been better in the middle this year and must get on top here if they're to win.


Tip

I have no idea why but I feel like we win this. Essendon by 14 and Dylan Shiel to get the medal
 
Heat will be turned right up this week with the Pies coming off a close loss away and us giving up and being called for it.

Hopefully the embarrassment solidifies our senior group and the youngsters rise to the occasion on ANZAC day. Even with that their leaders are better than ours and so is their team defense. Pies by 28.
 
If we play like we did today collingwood will beat us by 10 goals, with their fast corridor ball movement. I’d love them to take a scalp at selection and drop one of the mids, but we know that won’t happen. If Phillips is out I’d seriously consider playing Bryan. Draper will blow up in the 2nd qtr getting run around by grundy (who of course has coped some media heat, so watch him come out and win the Anzac medal). Baldwin the only obvious in, no one else did enough at vfl level to bang the door down.
 

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This game will get real ugly real quick. Pies by plenty. Was going to go, but after last night's performance. Meh, might just stay home.
 
eth-dog said:
Tip

I have no idea why but I feel like we win this. Essendon by 14 and Dylan Shiel to get the medal
Click to expand...
I also feel like we're a chance to win. Don't know why with that performance today. Never felt that that we'd beat Freo after falling over the line with Adelaide - we only won that game because they made a mistake in dying seconds and kicked to Redman after Shiel butchered kick to let them back in. No medal for Shiel in my crystal ball...
 
The cupboard is too bare to make any changes to the midfield, just need to add Perkins and Hobbs to more midfield rotations to mix it up.

Baldwin and Jones need to come in to change up the forward line but we are in desperate trouble when the ball hits the deck in there and have no idea how to fix that with the personnel we have at present.
 
Pies would bring in Mihocek, Ginnivan and McCreery and play a smaller type forward line

McGrath on JDG - big games needed from Shiel and Caldwell

Redman-BZT-Kelly
Hind-Riddler-Pidge
Cutler-Shiel-Perkins
Martin-Cox-Smith
Stringer-Wright-The Guelf

Draper-Caldwell-DP3

Hepp-Bryan-Waterman-Durham-Hobbsy

Baldwin plays if Stringer no good
 
pier paolo pasolini prayers GIF by FilmStruck
 
Geez we were bad in the 3rd quarter against the Dockers - couldn't bear to watch so left the ground at 3 quarter time...!!! Nothing to lose now for this game and the rest of the season - may as well play some of our supposed young talent...!! Early thoughts I'd have;-

OUT: Phillips, Hind, Smith
IN: Baldwin, Jones, Reid

Team;-

Laverde Reid Kelly
Heppell Zerk McGrath
Redman Caldwell Durham
Perkins Jones Martin
2MP Baldwin Guelfi

Draper Parish Shiel

Bench: Cox Hobbs Ridley Waterman
SUB: Cutler
 

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We all know we should bring Baldwin in , maybe Francis for some experience if nothing else.

Truck on the other hand:

In: Ham, Cutler.
Out: Phillips, Smith (both inj)
 
Unless something drastic changes (And with Zach and Package likely out, it won't) and both sides play like they did this week. There's a real chance the games over by the 20 minute mark of the 1st quarter.

Colingwood by 8 goals at least after we make Mason Cox look like an AFL footballer and he kicks 12 on us
 
Bunk Moreland said:
I think we’ll lift, we tend to after a shit performance.

We’ll have a crack and go down in a tightish one. Collingwood aren’t much chop.
Click to expand...
They’re playing way better footy than us currently, their style will cut us to shreds. Although as montagna pointed out last night on fox footy they aren’t exactly young currently. They had 10 players over 28 play on the weekend, only 4 under 22. We had 11 players under 22 yesterday and there could easily be 12 on Anzac Day when Baldwin comes in.
 
In. Bryan. Baldwin. Wanganeen
out. phillips. Cutler. smith
 
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