Preview Round 7: Essendon vs Carlton, Melbourne Cricket Ground, Sunday 02/05/2021 @ 3:20 PM AEST

Who wilt have the higher score come full time?

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eth-dog

eth-dog

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Jan 11, 2007
124,026
82,353
Melbourne
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Coburg Lions, All Boston sides
Observations

Essendon: The Dons were fantastic on ANZAC Day, in a tug of war the bombers lead at every change despite numerous lead changes and ended up winning by 4 goals. Darcy Parish was awarded the ANZAC Medal after winning the ball 42 times, 2 of which were goals. Up front, Peter Wright and Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti were excellent, the latter kicking 5 goals whilst Wright had 10 marks and 2 goals

Carlton: The Blues started well, leading at quarter time but then Brisbane hit back with 7 goals in the second quarter and eventually the Lions won by 3 goals. Sam Walsh was excellent through the midfield with 33 disposals and a goal. Harry McKay was the dominant forward on the ground, kicking 6 goals for the Blues, whilst co-captain Sam Docherty had 28 disposals running off half back.


Head to Head (last 5)

Essendon 2-3 Carlton


Form Guide

Essendon: 2-3
Carlton: 2-3


Sportsbet odds

Essendon: $2.42
Carlton: $1.57
Line: 9.5 ($1.90)


Possible sides

Essendon vs Carlton

FB: Jayden Laverde - Brandon Zerk-Thatcher - Nick Hind
FF: Mitchell McGovern - Harry McKay - Josh Honey
HB: Jordan Ridley - Zachary Reid - Dyson Heppell
HF: David Cuningham - Levi Casboult - Lachie Fogarty
MF: Nikolas Cox - Andrew McGrath - Zachary Merrett
MF: Liam Stocker - Sam Walsh - Marc Murphy
HF: Will Snelling - Peter Wright - Harrison Jones
HB: Adam Saad - Jacob Weitering - Lachie Plowman
FF: Jake Stringer - Cale Hooker - Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti
FB: Tom Williamson - Liam Jones - Sam Docherty
OB: Andrew Phillips - Darcy Parish - Kyle Langford
OB: Marc Pittonet - Patrick Cripps - Zach Williams
IC: Mason Redman - Archie Perkins - Devon Smith - Brayden Ham
IC: Sam Petrevski-Seton - Jack Newnes - Ed Curnow - Michael Gibbons
IS: Matthew Guelfi
IS: Matthew Kennedy

Essendon in: Jordan Ridley, Zach Reid; out: Aaron Francis (ankle), David Zaharakis (sub)
Carlton in: Josh Honey, Tom Williamson; Out: Eddie Betts (omit), Matthew Cottrell (omit)


Carlton defence vs Essendon forward line

Essendon's forward line has started well this season, kicking a goal 25.4% of the time it enters their forward 50, which is top 4 in the AFL so far. Carlton's defence has been very leaky so far this season, conceding a goal 24.4% of the time it goes in their defensive 50. The potential match up between Cale Hooker, who is equal 8th in the Coleman Medal, and Jacob Weitering promises to be crucial here, but Essendon will be looking to exploit Lachie Plowman most likely going to Jake Stringer when he's inside 50, the medium having returned extremely well in his first 4 games this season. Watch out for Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti as well, the small forward averaging 2 goals a game against the Blues, although Sam Petrevski-Seton did a good job of restricting him to 1 goal last season


Midfield/rucks battle

The two clubs are ying and yang in terms of the midfield. Carlton are 8th in clearance difference and 12th in contested possession difference so far this season to Essendon's 17th in each but Essendon are one of the better uncontested sides going around. On the inside Essendon will be hoping that Patrick Cripps won't hurt them too much, the Carlton captain averaging 26 disposals and over 6 clearances a game, ably supported by Sam Walsh and Zach Williams there. Essendon will be hoping Darcy Parish's form continues to trend upwards, the midfielder also averaging 26 disposals and 6.3 clearances a game, with able support from Andrew McGrath and Zach Merrett. On the outside is where Essendon will be looking to take advantage, young Nik Cox and Brayden Ham working well with the more experienced Kyle Langford as the outside midfielders, Carlton's main man on the outside being Marc Murphy, who has shown the signs of aging. Rucks wise, Phillips and Pittonet are serviceable until each team's #1 is ready to come back in the side.


Essendon defence vs Carltonforward line

Carlton have struggled this season so far forward of centre, only kicking a goal 20.9% of the time it enters their forward arc. Essendon's defence has been up andd down this season, conceding a goal 23.8% of the time it goes into their defensive end. Zach Reid was rested for ANZAC Day and may get a chance to go head to head with young gun Harry McKay, who has been probably the second best key forward this season, whilst Brandon Zerk-Thatcher will probably go against Levi Casboult, who's form has been well down this season, but has some of the best hands in the competition. Nick Hind and Lachie Fogarty have been a couple of the best value for money pick ups this season so far, and the pair could resolve who's the best after this match-up.


X-Factor Player

Archie Perkins has slotted into Essendon's side seamlessly, his power and speed on display. This kid could seriously be anything with the way he attacks the man and the ball, it's safe to say he'll be a coaches pet.


Key stat

Essendon: Forward conversion. The forward line has been excellent this season, they need to continue that if they're going to get to 3-4.

Carlton: Clearance difference. Carlton's midfield is based around winning the ball at the source, need to dominate in this area if they're any chance.


Tip:

**** Carlton. Bombers by 15.
 
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TheGrizz said:
If we win this game, i dont need to win any more games for the rest of the year.

Except Norf.
Click to expand...
Nah. We need to beat Hawthorne as well.
 
Certainly will be a more difficult game than Collingwood.

I've already accepted that McKay will kick 6 goals minimum because we don't have a matchup for him.

Changes:

Out: Francis (inj), BZT
In: Ridley, Stewart (if fit and available)

Otherwise, just Francis for Ridley.

We can win this if we bring the pressure.
 
Stewart will have to play VFL next week, seriously. He's coming off an 8 week injury.
 
eth-dog said:
Stewart will have to play VFL next week, seriously. He's coming off an 8 week injury.
Click to expand...

Yep. The fact that we didn’t give Stewart any VFL minutes this week must mean he’s still not ready.

Francis out (injured) and Ridley in.

Not sure how Jones is tracking and if he needs a rest.
 
Ambrosia said:
I think Jones could do with a rest and we could bring Ambrose in as a forward just a for a week
Click to expand...
I'd give Jones at least another week. His last quarter was good today and players missed a couple of passes to him when he was open inside 50. They are also working out how to play with Hooker, 2MP, Jones and Stringer all there.
 
I thought BZT was ok?
 
Ati Tude said:
I'd give Jones at least another week. His last quarter was good today and players missed a couple of passes to him when he was open inside 50. They are also working out how to play with Hooker, 2MP, Jones and Stringer all there.
Click to expand...

Yeah but he just looks tired and add on the fact he broke his nose I reckon the week off would do him good.
 

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Hopefully Reid is good to go next week. Sounds like it's a wait and see sort of situation though.
 
Parish you gem. Merrett lieutenant style of game. AMT very good, Stringer amazing, he is my favourite!
Lav was awesome sauce today. Did everything right.
Hams likewise, really good combo with Cox in ball movement. REDMAN YOU BEAUTY
Cox wowee, just a smooth silky mover of the ball. They just all played apart.
Phillips true blue dedicated working ruckman, worked Grundy all-day, with assistance, stood tall to the task.
And all the other boys I forgot including Skip, BZT, Langers and Smith that's what I'm talking about. Great Anzac Day Game.
Now back it up with a win against these Muppets!
 
Jones is an interesting one for me - the kid will be OK and showed a bit in our very 1st game against the Hawks where he had 13 possessions and could have kicked 3 goals had he not missed some easy ones. But outside of that 1 game he is only averaging 6 possessions a game which is not enough...
One last chance this week for me though as it is only Carton we are playing...!!

Zerk did enough to keep his spot I think so Reid has to wait another week

Ambrose is almost the perfect SUB so I’d bring him in as SUB over Zakka

Stringer an absolute beast in the middle - should start there and rotate with Langford at CHF

So against the Blues:

OUT: Francis, Zakka
IN: Ridley, Ambrose

Team;-

Ridley Zerk Redman
Heppell Laverde Hind
Merrett Stringer Cox
Perkins Langford Smith
2MP Hooker Tippa

Phillips Parish McGrath

Bench: Ham Snelling Guelfi Jones
SUB: Ambrose





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