Prediction Round 8, 2024: Changes vs Essendon

[fullbull]

Agree with all. Edwards has great composure, poor mans Pendlebury is a fair if unflattering comparison. I'm not sure he becomes best 22, could be depth for us post Yeo and Kelly or could find a niche for himself at the level. Jury is out medium term, but short term he's just in a unique position being a one of the older new wave and having build himself an elite tank. My confidence in him is as much that Simmo just seems to speak really highly of him than it is him setting the world on fire. It would be odd to single him out for praise if he was fringe. And his gps data seems to back up the confidence match committee have in him.

I agree Long is too good to leave out. But as was my original point last week, people don't seem to realise that Brockman going out isn't enough to get Long his spot back. There was some musical chairs going on in which Maric started the season out of the 22 then came in, and we need Maric playing as much as Long. There is a log jam in which essentially if both Cripps and Ryan play we can't play two of Long, Brockman and Maric. Essentially Brockman and Maric would have to go for Long to come learn at Cripps feet. Or Liam Ryan push out Cole down back- which I see as highly unlikely. Luke Edwards is who people want to go out because very few are invested in him as a player, but I just don't think match committee see's him as that option. So they [match committee] pretty much have to be talking about Long v Cripps when they are picking the current side where all the options are fit and available. And everybody wants them both in but it doesn't seem possible. For me I'm picking Long every day of the week and its not a slight on Cripps, its just answering the question of who is more important to the club right now and in the future.

I am curious about this part of your post. Last week’s changes included Ryan in, and Long out. Why could this week’s changes not include Long in and Brockman out, thus meaning Cripps, Ryan, Long and Maric are all able to comfortably fit into the same side?

 

[Carbine Chaos]

OUT: L Edwards, H Edwards (stiff), A Witherden (stiff), D Sheed (sub)
IN: H Reid, T Barrass, N Long, H Johnston (sub)


A few harsh calls here (which is a good sign). Harry was good but in comes Barrass. Luke is working hard, but I don't see a role for him. Witherden has been pretty good! But with Hunt waning out of games I'd like to see him rolling back a bit more, which requires a shift in roles. Sheed to lead in the WAFL with Gaff for the moment, with Harvey debuting as sub.

I'd stick fat with Chesser and Brockman, I feel the rewards are coming. Realistically I expect one or both to be ommitted.


FB: T Cole, T Barrass, J Rotham
HB: L Duggan, J McGovern, B Hough
C: J Hunt, E Yeo, J Petruccelle
HF: J Cripps, J Darling, N Long
FF: L Ryan, J Waterman, R Maric

R: B Williams, T Kelly, H Reid

I: J Williams, R Ginbey, C Chesser, T Brockman
S: H Johnston

 

[eaglesnutcase]

Another thing re Cripps is he can generally punt them from 50. Ryan,Long and Brockman probably struggle! But given his age and work rate I think he should be given a rest at some stage. As the ongoing conversation shows we now have the cover.
Ryan is our best field kick/ decision maker.
Long has a very high football IQ.
Brockmans skills are sublime but they should be the cream on the cake not the whole cake.
Maric got the goods but “harder for longer”
Waterman I apologise. Quite surprised me this year. Let’s hope OAs return doesn’t put the kibosh on his rich run of form.
I said at the start of the year that our forward line looked as good as anyone’s.

 

[CursoryMercenary]

Bombers have some tall timber, very tall timber maybe Harry survives? The easy call would be to straight swap him for Brarass.

Writing on the wall for Chesser, he needs a spell, Brockman could go to but I'd give him another chance.

Bailey is so frustrating as a player one of our best against Freo but one of our worst last week. Has another big challenge this week on his hands hopefully he can stand up.

Great to see competition for spots. it's been far too long.

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[WCErevival]

Sharps24 = Rawlinson

 

[HirdsTheWord]

Gotta go 3 talls down back with Essendons extra tall forward line. Id like HEdwards to man up on Wright to leave Barass to a guy like Cox and McGovern to take one of the resting rucks. Im happy enough for Sheed to keep being the sub. Dont like when a younger player is in that role. Chesser and L Edwards can get a week or two in the WAFL for now also. Forward line feels a bit too tall at present so wouldnt mind putting Darling in the old managed role this week

IN : Reid, Barass, Long
OUT: Darling, Chesser, LEdwards

Not sure we have an extra tall fwdline.

Wright is 6"8 Jones 6"5 and Langford and Stringer are only 6"4.

We just rotate Ruckman though which makes it seem tall. We will likely play Draper and Goldy, so as long as your ruck strategy maintains accountability for them when they go deep into the fwdline, you dont need to make any drastic changes to your actual backline IMO.

 

[Cuzz09]

Who plays on nic Martin?

Guy will rack up stacks of free ball and use it well if given time.

Prob be HB on Maric? Maric needs to get dangerous and we need to use him

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[stallon]

Not sure we have an extra tall fwdline.

Wright is 6"8 Jones 6"5 and Langford and Stringer are only 6"4.

We just rotate Ruckman though which makes it seem tall. We will likely play Draper and Goldy, so as long as your ruck strategy maintains accountability for them when they go deep into the fwdline, you dont need to make any drastic changes to your actual backline IMO.

They also sit a ruckman either Draper or Goldstein down there a lot of the time too. They basically always have 4 guys 192cm+ down there, 2 of them usually being ruckman height, with the 5th being Stringer in the midfield for a stint or a ruckman
None of them get up the ground like Maric or cover the kms that Waterman does either

 

[HirdsTheWord]

They also sit a ruckman either Draper or Goldstein down there a lot of the time too. They basically always have 4 guys 192cm+ down there, 2 of them usually being ruckman height, with the 5th being Stringer in the midfield for a stint or a ruckman
None of them get up the ground like Maric or cover the kms that Waterman does either

Thats exactly what i said lol.

All you need to do is make your ruck men accountable when ours go deep into fwdline. Do you run 2 ruck men?, if you dont can you?

 

[stallon]

Thats exactly what i said lol.

Yeah I got mixed up, didnt see the bombers supporter thing thought you meant the eagles

All you need to do is make your ruck men accountable when ours go deep into fwdline. Do you run 2 ruck men?, if you dont can you?

Not really lol, we have BW, but then a 20 year old ruck/fwd is the backup, alternative is Barnett who isnt ready to take on your boys. More than likely at least one of your forwards will have a mismatch because theyre too tall/big

 

[Free Agent]

What I'd like to see is Brockman out of the forwardline and onto a wing. He has pace and is creative. The more I see him the more I don't see a forward in him. He is not confident kicking for goals and that's a big worry if we are playing him in a forward pocket. Worth exploring him on a wing

Instead I think we should try Chesser as a forward crumber. Everytime he has gone forward he has done very well. Has a natural ability for crumbing and that's exactly what we need at the ball drop.

Ryan to go Sub or back to WAFL to find form. Was a liability this week. Looked completely lost and not hungry enough. If he is 100% fit then that wasn't acceptable on the standards we set. If he is underdone then AFL is not the place to find match fitness.

 

[RookiePick]

Out: Sheed, Hedwards, Cheeser

In: Harley, Barrass, Long

Chess to have a full run in the WAFL. Brockman and Long to cover those wing minutes. I reckon Brockman playing a bit higher might be just the ticket for him to find some space and get creative. I think he's got good vision.

Sheed...my sponsors curse is working a treat. Guy looks like he would struggle to take a piss with any sense of urgency. Surely has to get the Gaff treatment and become a Beagles stalwart.

Heddy...played OK. Just his place in the pecking order at present.

Who are we gonna play on Stringer? I reckon he will make Roth, Cole, Dugg look stupid and I think Brady is undersized for the MU as yet. I think Brady might be the most likely to tie hi in knots though. Will be a key MU for the coaching team to get right at any rate I think.

 

[lusheslewis]

AFL Team Rankings - AFL.com.au

See what AFL Teams are leading in key statistics like kIcks, handballs, disposals or marks

www.afl.com.au

Our average disposals per game this year (315.1) is the lowest for any team since at least 2012 (AFL site doesn't have prior seasons, excluding 2020).

Only 276 on the weekend which must be extremely low for a team that was competitive on the scoreboard.

I don't know what to make of this. Is it game-plan related which explains low disposal counts for some of our players? Or did we actually get smashed on the weekend and the scoreboard flatters?

291 vs PORT
360 vs GWS
309 vs WB
336 vs SYD
317 vs RICH
317 vs FRE

 

[eaglevision]

What I'd like to see is Brockman out of the forwardline and onto a wing. He has pace and is creative. The more I see him the more I don't see a forward in him. He is not confident kicking for goals and that's a big worry if we are playing him in a forward pocket. Worth exploring him on a wing

Instead I think we should try Chesser as a forward crumber. Everytime he has gone forward he has done very well. Has a natural ability for crumbing and that's exactly what we need at the ball drop.

Ryan to go Sub or back to WAFL to find form. Was a liability this week. Looked completely lost and not hungry enough. If he is 100% fit then that wasn't acceptable on the standards we set. If he is underdone then AFL is not the place to find match fitness.

Genuinely looks terrified

 

[The Dodger]

Funny the Pies seem to have a quirkless fixture. Every year.

No no...they get the quirks that result in positive outcomes.
AFL:"Oh look we need to fit this game in...ahh make it v Pies at the G."
Voice of reason:"But that will give Pies 8 games in a row at the G"
AFL: "Just a quirk of the draw"

 

[flyinghi64]

Time to really rally behind my player Trew.
Has been the most consistent in the WAFL and at least deserves a chance.
Chesser has had a good run of it to prove his worth and I really don't think he has grabbed the bull by the horns and said I BELONG so back to WAFL to get some hunger back.

Out
Sheed - looks more suited to working at main roads holding the lollipop sign, sad but true.
Chesser - already covered
Rotham - was out of him and Hedwards for Barrass and Hedwards doubled his tackles and took more marks so get's to keep his spot for now.

In
Reid
Trew
Barrass

Yep no Long unless a straight swap for Brockman. I think Long may be a little comfortable and a run in the WAFL will shake him up a bit.

Wow having some actual depth and ability to drop and reward players is fun.

 

[The Dodger]

AFL Team Rankings - AFL.com.au

See what AFL Teams are leading in key statistics like kIcks, handballs, disposals or marks

www.afl.com.au

Our average disposals per game this year (315.1) is the lowest for any team since at least 2012 (AFL site doesn't have prior seasons, excluding 2020).

Only 276 on the weekend which must be extremely low for a team that was competitive on the scoreboard.

I don't know what to make of this. Is it game-plan related which explains low disposal counts for some of our players? Or did we actually get smashed on the weekend and the scoreboard flatters?

291 vs PORT
360 vs GWS
309 vs WB
336 vs SYD
317 vs RICH
317 vs FRE

This is what Im thinking about when we are saying we enjoy how direct we have been playing recently. And I assume that a byproduct of that is lower possession numbers in general. And it probably flows on to some of our more unrewarded runners ie Luke Edwards and Chesser and their low numbers. Not saying its the reason for them but a contributing factor in why people trying to find their role in our team might have production issues.

 

[Bestbird]

AFL Team Rankings - AFL.com.au

See what AFL Teams are leading in key statistics like kIcks, handballs, disposals or marks

www.afl.com.au

Our average disposals per game this year (315.1) is the lowest for any team since at least 2012 (AFL site doesn't have prior seasons, excluding 2020).

Only 276 on the weekend which must be extremely low for a team that was competitive on the scoreboard.

I don't know what to make of this. Is it game-plan related which explains low disposal counts for some of our players? Or did we actually get smashed on the weekend and the scoreboard flatters?

291 vs PORT
360 vs GWS
309 vs WB
336 vs SYD
317 vs RICH
317 vs FRE

Rather that than Norths & Hawks play style of useless disposals in the backline not amounting to much.

 

[Bender_]

Rather that than Norths & Hawks play style of useless disposals in the backline not amounting to much.

cough*Sheezel*cough

 

[Cuzz09]

Our main ball winners have been our backline.

More ball doesn't equal wins but you'd hope that the main accumulators of the footy would be your engine room.

I think that says something about not having a genuine good ruck, nothing against BW he's busting his ass, but someone to break even would help our mids.



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[Cuzz09]

Hope we get Ess like v Port



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[Trouto]

I think it blows, us having a 6 day turn around after the longest trip in the AFL. f-you afl.

hope training is pretty easy this week

 

[HirdsTheWord]

Yeah I got mixed up, didnt see the bombers supporter thing thought you meant the eagles

Not really lol, we have BW, but then a 20 year old ruck/fwd is the backup, alternative is Barnett who isnt ready to take on your boys. More than likely at least one of your forwards will have a mismatch because theyre too tall/big

fair

 

[Cuzz09]

I think we'll be very tempted to play Barnett v Ess



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[Trouto]

I think we'll be very tempted to play Barnett v Ess



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god i hope not. he gets pansed in the wafl