Should the Dees and the Pies do a hard reset like the Tigers?

[Dr Tigris]

Given that Tassie will soon come in and compromise a couple of drafts, and with overall just the amount of sides in the competition it's got me thinking that clubs may be more inclined to trade away value as per what Richmond did this year and start looking at how a 2 year rebuild could be achieved. The model is really just trading out players still with value and aiming for as many top 30 picks in a single draft then you are just naturally not very good for a couple of years until ideally that bulk of players come good.

If we look at recent premiership dynasty sides like Melbourne (2021) and Collingwood (2023) who aren't likely to win anymore flags after such an unprecedented run of success, should they just face the music and go all in so that they aren't trying to rebuild with the minimum draft capital each year?

Richmond fell into the 'hard reset', rather than planned to do it - until mid seaon last year.

IMHO clubs will wait to see what happens before doing the major trade and draft thing immediately after a contending phase. Bringing in a heap of high end draftees whilst still having a good core of experienced players used to winning is rare (non-existent) in previous hard rebuild clubs.

• Does having that core of mature players make a difference?
• How do you balance having what looks like a team that is still capable of competing (if fit and in form) with so many young players of talent? i.e. Do you try to win or try to develop for the future?
• Will you be lucky enough to have the right payers wanting/willing to go to clubs able and willing to pay through the nose for them?

So no, clubs won't try to redo Richmond 2024 (they'd be nuts to want an injury list that long, a disfunctional coaching group, and a previosu coach who left the list in dissaray).
But over time if the Tigers rebound fast with a top list then clubs that have slid past their contention will liekly give it a shot.

 

[Piggy Smalls]

Given that Tassie will soon come in and compromise a couple of drafts, and with overall just the amount of sides in the competition it's got me thinking that clubs may be more inclined to trade away value as per what Richmond did this year and start looking at how a 2 year rebuild could be achieved. The model is really just trading out players still with value and aiming for as many top 30 picks in a single draft then you are just naturally not very good for a couple of years until ideally that bulk of players come good.

If we look at recent premiership dynasty sides like Melbourne (2021) and Collingwood (2023) who aren't likely to win anymore flags after such an unprecedented run of success, should they just face the music and go all in so that they aren't trying to rebuild with the minimum draft capital each year?

What makes you think Richmond's build will only take two years? Literally none of your draft picks have even played at the level. They could all be busts yet. Then you've got few experienced guns and a bunch of shit kids with little trade value and you're looking at 10 years plus.
I'm sure this won't happen but it's not impossible.

 

[PetterdHoisted]

What makes you think Richmond's build will only take two years? Literally none of your draft picks have even played at the level. They could all be busts yet. Then you've got few experienced guns and a bunch of shit kids with little trade value and you're looking at 10 years plus.
I'm sure this won't happen but it's not impossible.

yep, we are all in for 2024 being a super-draft, and the top of 2025 being very good too.

 

[L_W_P]

Richmond got amazing deals done this year. Would the Dees get the same sort of deals for Trac & Oliver?

Maybe. Depends on who's really buying.

Carlton and maybe Essendon could bid for Trac? Might get 2x first rounders out of them for him.

Geelong were looking at Oliver but I don't know if they'd give up 2x first rounders. Saints might look at him if they miss on LDU?

If the Suns lose Rowell they might pay up.

I can't see Collingwood having a fire sale though. I think that club is building on the idea of never dropping down.

They have some questions on KPD depth, and I'm not sure what's happening with the likes of Allan & Macrae coming on in he midfield, but they'll be thereabouts as long as the Daicos boys keep performing.

Being a big club with big games helps on the trade/FA front too.

Wouldn't be shocked if the look to move their 2026/2027 picks on early for some bigger name recruits as well. Rowell maybe?

Just get out of the Tassie drafts and try to load up for top 4 during those early years.

 

[Django]

Seems like a loaded topic. Obviously time will tell if Rchmond made the right choices, although to be fair it does seem as though the choice was not theirs to make. They responded to the cards they're were dealt and did so brilliantly. Given the recent success they have more leeway than most. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

The Dees are due a good year in my opinion. Lots of talent at their disposal, although it is debatable that the coaches have not got the best out of it yet. Far from scorched rebuild territory though. They could still win the flag this year if they get lucky.

The Pies to me are interesting. In my opinion they are teetering on the cliff, but they are confident they have another shot in them. They have been up for a long time, but without the success that the Tigers have had even given the 2023 flag. From an outsiders perspective it does seem a bit like Daicos or bust, so they will be an interesting watch. It could fall apart very quickly and hard.

What does all this mean? Well nothing really. It's preseason. The Tigers would do well to not finish bottom next year. Dees could easily rebound and have a solid year (similar to the Pies when McCrae came on board), and the Pies are hoping to squeeze every last ounce of talent out of their list before it could perhaps seemingly fall of a cliff.

I am excited by my own clubs prospects. I expect us to be close to the bottom, but there will be plenty of new faces to watch so I am hoping that is exciting. The Pies look the most vulnerable to me. An old list in need of youth and rejuvenation. As a Tiger supporter, it's a familiar look.

To answer the question. No. Richmond is a unique case at this point in time.

 

[danster168]

B: McVee, May, Lever

HB: Windsor, Petty, Salem

C: Langdon, Oliver, Sharp

HF: Tholstrup, van Rooyen, Langford

F: Fritsch, Turner, Pickett

FOLL: Gawn, Petracca, Viney

IC: Rivers, Bowey, Lindsay, Chandler

SUB: Sparrow

The rest: Melksham/McDonald/Aidan Johnson/Kynan Brown/Howes/Moniz-Wakefield/Woewodin/Hore/Spargo/Jefferson should all get games.

I think it's escaped most opposition supporters that Melbourne have well and truly already embarked on revitalizing their list.

The 11 bolded players in the best 23 above are all 23 and under, that's half the team. Seven are top 20 picks.

If you included players 25 and under it's 14 of the 23.

This team is based on regular track watchers, general supporter agreement, and a small amount of projection with the inclusion of top 10 talents Langford and Lindsay. I have no doubt they'll play the bulk of the season.

It's a furphy to think Melbourne need a ''hard reset''.

Of the bolded players, who has AA potential? I'd say Pickett is the only one. Maybe McVee if the AA selectors actually watched footy. The rest are flankers/role players and I've got massive concerns over Howes/Langford/Jefferson. Jefferson's lack of competitiveness, Langford is super slow and Howes has stalled. We've got a lot of depth in terms of role players but weldon't have much star factor coming through. Van Rooyen is a good, mihocek sort of player.

Bowey has stalled as a player and the coaches dont seem to rate Kynan Brown/Wakefield and Woewodin.

 

[hawkman]

Is Hard Reset more powerful a response than a Rebuild?

I think Hard Reset means you are one of the worst teams of the AFL era and have lucked into getting some value for a few of your players

 

[Saints4ever]

If Richmond had the choice of draft picks or still have Rioli and Bolton on their list they would choose Rioli and Bolton everyday of the week.
Let’s not pretend that Richmond choose this path.
Anyway they have 3 flags and can afford to sit around the bottom for awhile before the sharks come circling.

 

[TigerTime88]

If Richmond had the choice of draft picks or still have Rioli and Bolton on their list they would choose Rioli and Bolton everyday of the week.
Let’s not pretend that Richmond choose this path.
Anyway they have 3 flags and can afford to sit around the bottom for awhile before the sharks come circling.

Disagree at least from a supporters perspective. Those players are brilliant but Rioli is on the wrong side of his career now injury wise and has always been prone to a niggle. Bolton a star but wasn't exactly lifting us up from 18th.

We have no high end young talent and it will be so much more enjoyable to watch young guys like Smilie, Horton, Lalor ect even if we are getting smashed.

We can afford some lean years due to success as you said.

 

[Rich01]

If Richmond had the choice of draft picks or still have Rioli and Bolton on their list they would choose Rioli and Bolton everyday of the week.
Let’s not pretend that Richmond choose this path.
Anyway they have 3 flags and can afford to sit around the bottom for awhile before the sharks come circling.

Wrong.
Richmond could have had Rioli and Bolton on their list for 2025.

Both were contracted.
Richmond were happy to move them at their request to pick up draft capital.

Richmond ultimately made the choice.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Wrong.
Richmond could have had Rioli and Bolton on their list for 2025.

Both were contracted.
Richmond were happy to move them at their request to pick up draft capital.

Richmond ultimately made the choice.

Hardly a revolutionary strategy. Particularly for a team that'd probably expect to be around the 14-18 mark with or without them. Trade them, get some nice picks in return, be the short-priced favourite for #1 again next year.

Who wouldn't choose that option, when the alternative appeared to be 'squeeze every last drop out of the existing group and maybe get 5-6 wins from the season'?

 

[Trav 20]

Of the bolded players, who has AA potential? I'd say Pickett is the only one. Maybe McVee if the AA selectors actually watched footy. The rest are flankers/role players and I've got massive concerns over Howes/Langford/Jefferson. Jefferson's lack of competitiveness, Langford is super slow and Howes has stalled. We've got a lot of depth in terms of role players but weldon't have much star factor coming through. Van Rooyen is a good, mihocek sort of player.

Bowey has stalled as a player and the coaches dont seem to rate Kynan Brown/Wakefield and Woewodin.

AA potential from bolded ? McVee, Windsor, Pickett, and maybe top 10 talents in Langford and Lindsay. In reality, who knows about others this early in their careers.

Bowey has stalled mainly due to injury. He's having a good preseason, so let's see.

The coaches don't rate Kynan Brown ? The bloke has had one year at the club and got games in his debut season.

I don't share your concerns re Langford. If you watched Vic Country v Vic Metro he looked terrific. I've seen quite a lot of his highlights and lowlights and yes, he can get caught, like all players, but I don't watch him and see it as any sort of concern. Unlike you, I love the look of him. I want bother saying that I like the look of him at every chance, but I know you'll say the opposite in every post you can. Weird.

 

[PetterdHoisted]

Wrong.
Richmond could have had Rioli and Bolton on their list for 2025.

Both were contracted.
Richmond were happy to move them at their request to pick up draft capital.

Richmond ultimately made the choice.

The bonhomie of being the recent dynasty side has a massive role in making those contract releases palatable IMO.

Release a gun 25 yo mid-contract vs Release a gun 25 yo mid-contract that recently won you 2 or 3 flags

Richmond's situation is quite unique in that sense, I don't think it's fair or possible for Pies or Dees to take the same path, their members would ask why on Earth those clubs are trading out contracted, prime-age guns.

Trying to remember if Hawthorn traded the equivalent of a Baker/Bolton/Rioli around 2019? Bit more complicated in that they were still top 4 in 2018. Even though a bit older at that stage, I think they would have sent Cyril to GCS, for example, with all their blessings, if he had requested a trade rather than retire early in 2018.

 

[Grrr]

Wrong.
Richmond could have had Rioli and Bolton on their list for 2025.

Both were contracted.
Richmond were happy to move them at their request to pick up draft capital.

Richmond ultimately made the choice.

I think there is a bob each way.

We would have loved Bolton and Rioli to stay, nobody wants to get rid of your best players.
But they wanted to leave so given the success they had given Richmond, their wishes were met. I think that is good practice.

The others that left were not so important and Hartley did a great job of maximising the trades.

As it has turned out we got great numbers in return, so in hindsight it looks like a good plan and given the quality of players we got, it should also turn out okay. Let's see how they go.

One thing the players selected have is that many of them are ready to go size wise, so unlike many of our now dodgy picks from past drafts, they are not development types.

I would think Melbourne would be mad to do a Richmond and get rid of their best players, unless they wanted to leave. There have been rumblings, but nothing quite like what happened at Richmond (tied to Hardwick/go home etc).

 

[Granit1962]

Our 5 best players, Moore, Daicous 1, Daicous 2, JDG and Houston, are all on the right side of 30. Also a solid next core, comprising Cameron, Hill, McReery, IQ, Shultz, Maynard, McStay, Perryman, Lininski, are also all well under 30. That is 14 players currently in their peak and likely to be for a few more years. The hard rebuild talk is way off the mark.

 

[Mr Meow]

Our 5 best players, Moore, Daicous 1, Daicous 2, JDG and Houston, are all on the right side of 30. Also a solid next core, comprising Cameron, Hill, McReery, IQ, Shultz, Maynard, McStay, Perryman, Lininski, are also all well under 30. That is 14 players currently in their peak and likely to be for a few more years. The hard rebuild talk is way off the mark.

The couscous brothers?

 

[PetterdHoisted]

Our 5 best players, Moore, Daicous 1, Daicous 2, JDG and Houston, are all on the right side of 30. Also a solid next core, comprising Cameron, Hill, McReery, IQ, Shultz, Maynard, McStay, Perryman, Lininski, are also all well under 30. That is 14 players currently in their peak and likely to be for a few more years. The hard rebuild talk is way off the mark.

The cliff will come, pretty brave moves this year, personally I doubt they can beat Brisbane currently, irrespective of top-ups.

But the Pies can always use their profile to bring in young players, if things do start to look grim.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

The couscous brothers?

Inserts David King voice

"But who is couscous, Gerard? Who is he really? What does he bring? Is he really a torch bearer of your footy club? Or are his stats just empty calories that won't hold up when it matters?"

 

[Trav 20]

Our 5 best players, Moore, Daicous 1, Daicous 2, JDG and Houston, are all on the right side of 30. Also a solid next core, comprising Cameron, Hill, McReery, IQ, Shultz, Maynard, McStay, Perryman, Lininski, are also all well under 30. That is 14 players currently in their peak and likely to be for a few more years. The hard rebuild talk is way off the mark.

McStay and Cameron turn 30 in June and July of this year. That's hardly ''well under 30''.

 

[Granit1962]

McStay and Cameron turn 30 in June and July of this year. That's hardly ''well under 30''.

Still hardly cliff territory - still a good few years in this list.

 

[EBERT THE KING]

I like how the pies have loaded up at all costs for one last crack at a premiership with this group.

Issue is they will run into heavily compromised drafts when they are towards the bottom of the ladder.

Unless they attack free agents and trading every year, which they very well may do, then they will definitely run into trouble with the compromised drafts.

With their recent drafting history though, i'm not sure they will be too worried about not having first rounders. They haven't "hit" on a genuine first round draft pick since JDG (Take out academies and father son selections)

 

[Granit1962]

I like how the pies have loaded up at all costs for one last crack at a premiership with this group.

Issue is they will run into heavily compromised drafts when they are towards the bottom of the ladder.

Unless they attack free agents and trading every year, which they very well may do, then they will definitely run into trouble with the compromised drafts.

With their recent drafting history though, i'm not sure they will be too worried about not having first rounders. They haven't "hit" on a genuine first round draft pick since JDG (Take out academies and father son selections)

The strategy is to keep on topping up with free agents and through trade. No guarantee and always a risk and a multidude of other factors - however, I will be surprised if we are not at the pointy end of the ladder next season. We have a few promising academy and father sons on the horizon. Plus, Parker is well ahead of expectations who we picked up as a rookie B and a good chance we pick up Condon, NBA prospect. Both Parker and Condon were projected to go first round, before selecting other sports and both still young.

 

[Trav 20]

Still hardly cliff territory - still a good few years in this list.

Your reply has nothing to do with my post.

 

[Run n Spread]

I like how the pies have loaded up at all costs for one last crack at a premiership with this group.

Issue is they will run into heavily compromised drafts when they are towards the bottom of the ladder.

Unless they attack free agents and trading every year, which they very well may do, then they will definitely run into trouble with the compromised drafts.

With their recent drafting history though, i'm not sure they will be too worried about not having first rounders. They haven't "hit" on a genuine first round draft pick since JDG (Take out academies and father son selections)

Love it myself. If you're going to gamble Go all in. A premiership is a real possibility.
However come 26 the old boys can't go forever the youth is lacking and for every Geelong there is a Hawks 19 + where + Richmond and compromised drafts.
11 PFs in 22 years is ****ing unbelievable and we are blessed as supporters. But you need the players and while the culture and running of the club is on point like you say compromised drafts are coming.
But maybe that's the point of difference every club needs one. Just need a new way to recruit