Analysis St Kilda - List Analysis 2023

[SteeleSaints]

Gresham was tracking towards being a DeGoey level player before a couple of injured seasons. He could still bite us on the arse. Paying Billings a star wage was the only real issue. Perhaps we should have made a call that he wasn't going to make it earlier but again he was in our best players before injury. When you don't have much quality, trading out players would get the fans off side.

All of it was a symptom of years of poor drafting and list management. Making finals has given them a little bit of trust back this year. It could easily go though.

The moves we made need to be seen in action before it can be assessed. If Gresham ends up getting back to his best and Henry and Dow end up GOPs we probably just diluted down the talent pool. If Billings ends up meeting expectation while we are paying his wage and getting us zero return, then it's a massive kick backwards.

Can't see too much that we could trade out next year to be honest. Perhaps another go at Howard but then again needs to be replaced by equal for less or an upgrade to make t worthwhile.

To me our list is still very average and people don't want average unless it's free. We could trade Max King and Owens and get capital but then you have to make something better out of it or you've lost the plot.

Gresham was never in the DeGoey stratosphere, the only thing they had in common was inconsistency. People make allowances for Billings but he was mentally weak and also inconsistent from the get go. So what if Billings improves, he wasnt going to do that at our club he was a dead duck. Time to move on buddy.

As mentioned above there will be potential players to trade it just depends on how they perform next year and where our list build falls. There are other ways to build a list rather having multiple top 10 picks every year - have a look at Collingwood.

 

[gringo2011]

Exactly why we hold 3 x 3rd picks to trade up with all the F/S & NGA clubs will want next year! Plus as I suggested I expect to see a few players from the current list traded.

Who would you trade that would have actual value that would move us up the draft? Outside the best 22 I doubt that there is much that people would want unless we start picking off youth with upside.

 

[SteeleSaints]

Who would you trade that would have actual value that would move us up the draft? Outside the best 22 I doubt that there is much that people would want unless we start picking off youth with upside.

Again think bigger picture picks that can be on traded to clubs who want draft POINTS. Look at how the Bulldogs, GCS and Hawthorn traded out their mid tier picks for points this year. The same will occur next year, we just have to be ready

Depending on how they go next year - Clark, Byrnes, Paton, McKenzie, Jones even Hayes. If we can bring in another key defender possibly Howard.

 

[BrutThough]

Depending on how they go next year - Clark, Byrnes, Paton, McKenzie, Jones even Hayes.

None of them are worth anything.

 

[gringo2011]

None of them are worth anything.

Unless Clark has a break out year they look worse than guys like Stocker, Matho and probably even guys like O'Brien from Carlton who was delisted. It looks like high end talent is a very highly prized commodity but middling talent has never been so accessible.


You could put together a decent starter VFL side for Tasmania out of cheap rejects to start a bit of a lead in to them coming in IMO. Keep the cream and add the draftees in the run in.

 

[BrutThough]

Unless Clark has a break out year they look worse than guys like Stocker, Matho and probably even guys like O'Brien from Carlton who was delisted. It looks like high end talent is a very highly prized commodity but middling talent has never been so accessible.


You could put together a decent starter VFL side for Tasmania out of cheap rejects to start a bit of a lead in to them coming in IMO. Keep the cream and add the draftees in the run in.

It seems like it's harder to get the high end talent to move at the moment as well. None moved this off season and next years FA list isn't that impressive. If we cant draft it, it will be close to impossible to get any in.

 

[SteeleSaints]

Stop being so "glass half empty" you two. If any of the list I mentioned have an injury free run next year they will all be worth something.

Plus there are plenty of excellent FA's available next year.

 

[gringo2011]

It seems like it's harder to get the high end talent to move at the moment as well. None moved this off season and next years FA list isn't that impressive. If we cant draft it, it will be close to impossible to get any in.

I think you can get it if you make yourself very attractive. It's hard though because by the time you're attractive you have to still have cap space. Playing finals and looking one or two players off a flag helps and if the trend of sides being very competitive drops off there should be some good players available. If WCE stay bottom 4 next year, a few should be gettable.

 

[gringo2011]

Stop being so "glass half empty" you two. If any of the list I mentioned have an injury free run next year they will all be worth something.

Plus there are plenty of excellent FA's available next year.

Can't see it myself. Just being realistic as to where the list sits. We don't have piles of talent sitting in the reserves so unless we have a few come from nowhere while others look absolutely amazing in the reserves, we'll struggle to have much to sell off. I think you were on the right track with looking for clubs wanting bulk points for their FS and academy kids.

 

[BrutThough]

Stop being so "glass half empty" you two. If any of the list I mentioned have an injury free run next year they will all be worth something.

Plus there are plenty of excellent FA's available next year.

I don't think it is glass half empty to say a bunch of fringe players, half at which are extremely injury prone, are unlikely to be worth anything next trade period. I'd say it is being realistic.

 

[Ephemeral Hope]

I don't think it is glass half empty to say a bunch of fringe players, half at which are extremely injury prone, are unlikely to be worth anything next trade period. I'd say it is being realistic.

I often say that our club isn’t one that tends to have big differences between our best players and our worst. Means we don’t get a lot worse with big injuries eg. Did better with our fill ins at the start than later in the season with our “main players” back.

Also means when our main players come back in we don’t get much stronger. Obviously we have a couple players who are irreplaceable but for the most part it’s not like “oh shit once ____ player comes back we become a 6 goal a game better team”

 

[BrutThough]

I think you can get it if you make yourself very attractive. It's hard though because by the time you're attractive you have to still have cap space. Playing finals and looking one or two players off a flag helps and if the trend of sides being very competitive drops off there should be some good players available. If WCE stay bottom 4 next year, a few should be gettable.

Another strong season should make us a bit more attractive but it will always be difficult to compete with the bigger Melbourne clubs. We just dont have the marquee games or prime time appeal to stand out.

WCE's free agents aren't that exciting next year. The main ones who excite me are Mcluggage (unrealistic) and Florent (maybe slightly gettable). Otherwise, Hayward, Cumming or Nash would be a step down but decent picks ups. Most of next years are either oldies past their best, fringe types or Darcy/English who wouldn't work with Marshall. Battle is one of the better ones on the list who will go under the radar from the media but clubs will come after if we don't extend him early.

 

[BrutThough]

I often say that our club isn’t one that tends to have big differences between our best players and our worst. Means we don’t get a lot worse with big injuries eg. Did better with our fill ins at the start than later in the season with our “main players” back.

Also means when our main players come back in we don’t get much stronger. Obviously we have a couple players who are irreplaceable but for the most part it’s not like “oh s**t once ____ player comes back we become a 6 goal a game better team”

It's almost our biggest strength and our biggest weakness at the same time.

 

[Ephemeral Hope]

It's almost our biggest strength and our biggest weakness at the same time.

Definitely. very hard to get a read on the team due to that. Also makes it hard to trade players out

 

[PostmanBish]

Caminiti as a defender could certainly work.

Caminiti as a defender would see glass-jaw Murphy breathing a sigh of relief ...

 

[BigMonty]

It seems that the last thing you want in next year's draft is a 2nd round pick or a late first.

Assuming there are say 7 f/s and NGAs, etc, taken in the first round then using the table a pick from 12 to 25 sees the loss in value equivalent to pick 48 and 58.

If they get used up by 2nd and 3rds then our picks in the 40s may come in a few spots.

If we aggregate them, which will total 1000 points or pick 17 we must add more to get a single figure pick to not suffer the same dilution of a pick in the teens as per above example.

If we finish as we did this year our frdp pick 12 and the 3rd round combo will equal circa pick 3. So we may be able to get a pick at 7 or 8 if we are lucky....but sfa after that.

We need a decent free agent next year to make the above look an attractive list refresh.

A McLuggage type would be significantly pleasing

On SM-S916B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[CaptainRisky]

None of them are worth anything.

100 % correct
They will be great at VFL level and that's about it

 

[SteeleSaints]

100 % correct
They will be great at VFL level and that's about it

Where do you think we got Dow from and even Henry prior to half way through the year he had played more WAFL than AFL.

I beg to differ re our players particular if they can play the majority of games. Anyway its all pontificating, none of us actually know what will occur.

 

[gringo2011]

Where do think we got Dow from and even Henry prior to half way through the year he had played more WAFL than AFL.

I beg to differ re our players particular if they can play the majority of games. Anyway its all pontificating, none of us actually know what will occur.

I think Dow and Henry both had value based on high draft picks and perceived potential.

 

[ScrappyDo]

I believe the clubs approach this year was quite smart and well planned. IMO the calls on Gresham & Billings should have been made years ago. They wanted more outside speed and a clearance specialist and they got them both without giving away too much trade wise. We ended up with 3 x 3rd picks next year in a year where there will be unprecedented number of Father Sons Carlton x 2, Adelaide, Brisbane, Port Adelaide, plus more northern academy Sydney, Brisbane & GCS players 4-5. So clubs will be desperate for points and with the 3 x 3rd rounders we will be in a perfect position to trade up to a much stronger draft hand.

Again next year there will be more players the club may weed out giving us more trade value for the draft. Plus if the AFL adjust the NGA rules we will be in a position to take Adrian Cole and even trade picks for other clubs wanting points.

Getting a big chunk of TPP off the list will also allow us to go after and hopefully attract 1 or 2 quality free agents, then the list will be in a position to realistically start challenging.

Our 3x 3rd round picks will all probably be top 8 teams or better. We'd possibly get a pick around 30 for that.
Where is the confidence about the NGA rule changes coming from?

 

[saintmike65]

Exactly why we hold 3 x 3rd picks to trade up with all the F/S & NGA clubs will want next year! Plus as I suggested I expect to see a few players from the current list traded.

Hopefully our own NGA, Adrian Cole will be nabbed by us!

 

[Stan_Darsh72]

None of them are worth anything.

Clark and Hayes have value

A ruck who can play forward is always going to have some sort of value in today's AFL

Clark has the skills for this level, but can his body and mind reach that level is the question.

 

[SteeleSaints]

I think Dow and Henry both had value based on high draft picks and perceived potential.

Sorry doesnt Clark pick #7 (same age as Dow), McKenzie pick #22, Jones pick #15 discredit that rationale?

 

[Saintscomemarchingin]

When you Look at the best 22 you see why Gresham and Billings were surplus to requirements.

We have good depth, a young Forward Line, Experienced backline and a slow Midfield.


Best 22

Zaine Cordy, Callum Wilke Jimmy Webster
Jack Sinclair, Josh Battle, Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera

Rowan Marshall, Jack Steele, Brad Crouch
Bradley Hill, Paddy Dow, Mason Wood

Liam Henry, Cooper Sharman, Mitch Owens
Jack Higgins, Max King, Dan Butler


Hunter Clark, Sebastian Ross, Marcus Windhager, Mattaes Phillipou, Liam Stocker (Sub)

EMG: Tim Membrey, Jack Hayes, Daniel McKenzie, Zac Jones, Dougal Howard, Others


Weakness
Spread (i.e. slow midfield) - As noticed during the Giants Saints Game - Giants covering more ground with their Midfield.
Connection - i.e. Kicking Efficency inside 50.
Inexperienced Forward line.


Strength
Team Defense and Pressure Game
Wing Defense
Turnover Offense
Age Demographic.

I think when Lyon arrived & stated that we were a quick side. Jones & McKenzie were a big part of that, especially through the midfield.

 

[Saintscomemarchingin]

I don't think we have a second rounder next year do we? We are going to have to find a way to trade back in or hope someone needs points. I pick inside the top 30 picks is pretty slim pickings.

Sorry to all the short people out there, but Gresham equating to De Goey, very funny