One Fell Swoop
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Stakes Day
- Thread starter Rough_Edges
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Was anyone up early enough to hear what Deano's tips are? He has been on fire
Missed the first race selections but first few he went:
Race 2: 1,4,8,10
Race 3: 3,4,1,2
Race4: 1,4,9,10
R1:
Not sure which side of the track they'll come down with it being the first race + much firmer than it has been (I think they'll come down the inside/middle). It goes without saying to watch the betting...
Will it be one of the ones with race experience? Masthead and Asshiq were unlucky on debut, the two fillies won well on debut, can Arctic Command do what his half-bro did and win this race? Or will one of the first starters be one out of the box and cross the line first?
The Mick Price first starter, Sanford ($10), interests me and can't wait to see him in the mounting yard. I think it's only a matter of time until Darci Brahma throws a good one, this guy is a half to the handy (and flexible) Bondarchuk and he's drawn wide which mean he won't have to worry about the field coming in on top of him and should have his chance to get settle and rolling with Bossy on board.
Sanford - Masthead - Spectrolite - Arctic Command
R2:
With the rail being out and our first real firm track in this 4-day carnival, I think that especially in the early races we could see those on the pace and near-ish having a slight advantage, with that in mind..
I think the penny might have dropped last start for Launay ($4). He won like a good horse going places, he led them up, he was left a sitting duck in the straight as the field fanned, Amaethon challenged him and Testapal looked to be capable of flying straight past him... but Launay dug his heels in, he dug deep, he wanted get to that post first - which is something I haven't seen him do before. He is a question mark at the journey and his run in the 3yo Queensland Guineas doesn't put any distance fears to rest in this grade - but I think he's a better horse now and can be tough to run down.
A roughie to include is Fast Future ($41). His first up run in what has turned out to be an alright form race was good - the pace was on and he was entitled to run on, but still, he really did hit the line well. His only run here was in a G3 this time last year over 1400m and he grew wings late. Mile + Flemington + still fresh suits and whilst they won't be breaking any records up front, they should click along quick enough to give him a chance, hopefully they can make ground..
Launay - Fast Future - Eraset - Trader
R3:
I love the big lump Red Colossus ($1.85) and he's coming off a nice run in the Mackinnon, dropping back in class he looks the obvious pick but... he had the perfect run in the race, the way in which the race was run nothing could have (or did) come from behind him. I really am a fan of him and think that he's going to be even better this time next year, I'm just wary of the form out of that Mackinnon. That said - there's nothing in this race with his potential and with his form and at this distance, he's gotta be the one to beat by default, if one didn't like him already.
His main dangers I'm Imposing and Galizani have been scratched, Playwright has been up for a while after peaking for the Bendigo Cup and I think he'll be cut down with the long Flemington straight and Laristan is a huge query runner who they've had a couple setbacks with (don't underrate the French! lol). The rest aren't good enough to beat him.
Red Colossus - Playwright - Laristan - Carbon Trader
R4:
Yorkshire Lad ($9) at the odds, he ran well last time at MV, jumping okay, drifting back, hitting the line as hard as anything and it looks like the 1400m and space at Flemington is going to suit and he gets a monster 5kg off Territory and That's Not It - I don't think there's that much between them, although the topweights have deserved the impost and will be tough to beat. Bigelow won so bloody impressively after bombing the start at MV beating home Yorkshire Lad and has to go in. Wouldn't surprise to see Toolbag improve a hell of a lot either. Tough little race...
Yorkshire Lad - Territory - Bigelow - That's Not It
R5:
Hay List ($3.15) ran a low 1.08 in the Gilgai and it was one of the most impressive displays of straight racing that I've seen, but this is a bigger step up in grade than what he has been racing against. Black Caviar is a monster, kicking butt everywhere and is back better than ever - but how the hell she's odds on against Hay List, I can't work it out and I'm surprised that people are just so happy to launch into the shorts. I'm happy to watch the race go around without any of mine on, but we've all been waiting for this clash all spring and I hope we won't be left disappointed.
Hay List - Black Caviar - Star Witness - Melito
R6:
Wall Street ($6.50) comes off a run in the Cox Plate where not everything went right for him, drops in grade and back to his pet distance here and especially with the scratching, I'm not sure where the pace is going to come from so he should get a cushy run up on (or near) the front. The biggest ? for mine is, how much did the Cox Plate run take out of him? Horses dropping back from that to this don't always fire as much as expected. Tongue tie, blinkers, local jockey - bang.
If the real Gold Salute ($21) turns up, he can give this a huge shake. He's had some issues this prep, he was stubborn and had run his race before they jumped last time and his run in the Toorak was good - he won't know himself with only 52.5kg on his back. He ran a huge race in this race last year and if he brought that form (but jumping better), letting that, weight, barrier and jockey combine - he could break through. If he jumps well, I think he can get almost the perfect run in transit and can go close.
He has not been on of mine, but it won't surprise to see Chasm ($15) get close here. He has only had the one chance over the Flemington mile before, a race which he won impressively beating home Vigor. He's the kind of horse that you'd hate to love to back - he can sprout wings and fly home when he's no chance of picking up the leaders but have back me next start written all over him, or he can do nothing. He has been kept sharp this prep with a couple of runs down the straight and they won't run this helter-skelter so any distance query should be okay for him to come with a short, sharp sprint. He has always come up short in G1 grade, but I think that he gets his best ever chance in this race.
Albert The Fat ($18) ran well on the soft track at Flemington, having back me next time written all over it, I think that he's racing like he wants the mile now and he's always threatened to win a few nice races - being a G1 winner over Melito and close-up behind Black Piranha, I think he's well weighted in this as well. Shame about the barrier - could means that he ends up a long way back with just too much work to do.
It might be a little nuts as he's always managed to seem to not quite get the mile, but geez Black Piranha is going under the radar. He got home well in the Doncaster, he ran a big race in this last year, the firmer ground will suit. That said, I'm generally not a fan of Epsom form coming into this race..
The ever firming track is going to suit Drumbeats ($8.50). He's one who has been crying out for and is twice the horse on top of the ground than he is with a drop of rain. Flemington, mile, weight relief, has enough tactical speed to get a better run than 3 wide without cover.. speaking of gunna-horses, Palacio De Cristal ($10) definitely will get the firm track she craves to show her best, but she won't be getting the pace on, has the very real prospect of running up bums and whilst Flemington will suit, she has to reach a new peak rating here to win. She's never been one of mine and she can win without me.
...and after that spiel for the ages, it's quite possible that I haven't even mentioned the trifecta haha
Wall Street - Gold Salute - Chasm - Albert The Fat
R7:
There's a long run to the first turn from the 2000m start and I don't think any of these will think they must lead - so that could leave us with a muddling affair.
I think the best horse in the race is Keep The Peace ($5) and the wide barrier doesn't concern me. She has the speed to overcome it if needed, she has the form on the board at this distance, she has one of the best jockeys at rating them on her back and the wide, open Flemington course should suit her. It's always a hard ask to declare the winner of the mares race and on paper the barrier is going to make it extremely difficult (especially if the inside is 'on') but geez I'll be disappointed if she doesn't end up winning/finishing close. At least all of her main dangers are drawn in double figures as well.. KTP is the only one in this capable of measuring up in G! WFA class (potentially here or definitely in NZ), I'm happy to do my dough if she fails
Purple ($5) may come out and win this race again, but I can't come at her. The track will be firmer than she likes and she's definitely not been the punter favourite horse since her win here last year. Her form, for a mares race, actually doesn't read that badly and this will just about be the last roll of the dice this prep to get her back on the winners list, you'd think she'll go close, but I just can't put money on her.
Keep The Peace *Best* - Moment In Time - Delta Gee - Lady Lynette
R8:
What a race! It almost seems like Geelong Cup Vs Moonee Valley Cup, let the best horse win
The obvious top two picks for mine are Exceptionally ($7) and Above Average ($7). E has been a form stayer of the season, perhaps even unlucky not to make the Melbourne Cup field, she pushed Harris Tweed here in The Bart Cummings and hasn't lost any form since then. AA has been slowly winding up to find his best here, races like this track and distance is what he wants most and he should be able to enjoy an economical run with cover and pull out at the right time to commence his run up the straight.
I thought Sea Galleon ($31) ran a super race in the MV Cup, drawn much better here he can take up a better position, Flemington and this distance should suit him down to the ground and if you like Exceptionally here, I think you have to give SG a good chance at 4 times the odds. I think we'll see a better horse next season, but he's a progressive type of stayer and the Alderson's can train and place a stayer...
Plenty of good chances - who knows, Moudre might get the breaks and today can be the day he finally wins a staying race over the Carnival.
Above Average - Sea Galleon - Exceptionally - Eatern Aria
R9:
He's short, but it should be sweet for punters - he looks the best chance of winning of the day. We're Gonna Rock ($2.30) gets the firm going which he loves here, this isn't a strong race, he missed the run in the Emirates but with even luck here We're Gonna Rock should be winning.
We're Gonna Rock - Ahdashim - Berringama - King Hoaks
I'll go for a bit of value in my Quaddie, but bugger it, I'll keep the number of combinations down and go for a large % on the last day, I still don't think I've covered all the chances in the Emirates or Cup, but ya can't have 'em all!:
3,6,9,12,13,14 (will do the Big F in another)
3
3,4,6,7,11,16
3
Best of luck today, may we all be winners
Not sure which side of the track they'll come down with it being the first race + much firmer than it has been (I think they'll come down the inside/middle). It goes without saying to watch the betting...
Will it be one of the ones with race experience? Masthead and Asshiq were unlucky on debut, the two fillies won well on debut, can Arctic Command do what his half-bro did and win this race? Or will one of the first starters be one out of the box and cross the line first?
The Mick Price first starter, Sanford ($10), interests me and can't wait to see him in the mounting yard. I think it's only a matter of time until Darci Brahma throws a good one, this guy is a half to the handy (and flexible) Bondarchuk and he's drawn wide which mean he won't have to worry about the field coming in on top of him and should have his chance to get settle and rolling with Bossy on board.
Sanford - Masthead - Spectrolite - Arctic Command
R2:
With the rail being out and our first real firm track in this 4-day carnival, I think that especially in the early races we could see those on the pace and near-ish having a slight advantage, with that in mind..
I think the penny might have dropped last start for Launay ($4). He won like a good horse going places, he led them up, he was left a sitting duck in the straight as the field fanned, Amaethon challenged him and Testapal looked to be capable of flying straight past him... but Launay dug his heels in, he dug deep, he wanted get to that post first - which is something I haven't seen him do before. He is a question mark at the journey and his run in the 3yo Queensland Guineas doesn't put any distance fears to rest in this grade - but I think he's a better horse now and can be tough to run down.
A roughie to include is Fast Future ($41). His first up run in what has turned out to be an alright form race was good - the pace was on and he was entitled to run on, but still, he really did hit the line well. His only run here was in a G3 this time last year over 1400m and he grew wings late. Mile + Flemington + still fresh suits and whilst they won't be breaking any records up front, they should click along quick enough to give him a chance, hopefully they can make ground..
Launay - Fast Future - Eraset - Trader
R3:
I love the big lump Red Colossus ($1.85) and he's coming off a nice run in the Mackinnon, dropping back in class he looks the obvious pick but... he had the perfect run in the race, the way in which the race was run nothing could have (or did) come from behind him. I really am a fan of him and think that he's going to be even better this time next year, I'm just wary of the form out of that Mackinnon. That said - there's nothing in this race with his potential and with his form and at this distance, he's gotta be the one to beat by default, if one didn't like him already.
His main dangers I'm Imposing and Galizani have been scratched, Playwright has been up for a while after peaking for the Bendigo Cup and I think he'll be cut down with the long Flemington straight and Laristan is a huge query runner who they've had a couple setbacks with (don't underrate the French! lol). The rest aren't good enough to beat him.
Red Colossus - Playwright - Laristan - Carbon Trader
R4:
Yorkshire Lad ($9) at the odds, he ran well last time at MV, jumping okay, drifting back, hitting the line as hard as anything and it looks like the 1400m and space at Flemington is going to suit and he gets a monster 5kg off Territory and That's Not It - I don't think there's that much between them, although the topweights have deserved the impost and will be tough to beat. Bigelow won so bloody impressively after bombing the start at MV beating home Yorkshire Lad and has to go in. Wouldn't surprise to see Toolbag improve a hell of a lot either. Tough little race...
Yorkshire Lad - Territory - Bigelow - That's Not It
R5:
Hay List ($3.15) ran a low 1.08 in the Gilgai and it was one of the most impressive displays of straight racing that I've seen, but this is a bigger step up in grade than what he has been racing against. Black Caviar is a monster, kicking butt everywhere and is back better than ever - but how the hell she's odds on against Hay List, I can't work it out and I'm surprised that people are just so happy to launch into the shorts. I'm happy to watch the race go around without any of mine on, but we've all been waiting for this clash all spring and I hope we won't be left disappointed.
Hay List - Black Caviar - Star Witness - Melito
R6:
Wall Street ($6.50) comes off a run in the Cox Plate where not everything went right for him, drops in grade and back to his pet distance here and especially with the scratching, I'm not sure where the pace is going to come from so he should get a cushy run up on (or near) the front. The biggest ? for mine is, how much did the Cox Plate run take out of him? Horses dropping back from that to this don't always fire as much as expected. Tongue tie, blinkers, local jockey - bang.
If the real Gold Salute ($21) turns up, he can give this a huge shake. He's had some issues this prep, he was stubborn and had run his race before they jumped last time and his run in the Toorak was good - he won't know himself with only 52.5kg on his back. He ran a huge race in this race last year and if he brought that form (but jumping better), letting that, weight, barrier and jockey combine - he could break through. If he jumps well, I think he can get almost the perfect run in transit and can go close.
He has not been on of mine, but it won't surprise to see Chasm ($15) get close here. He has only had the one chance over the Flemington mile before, a race which he won impressively beating home Vigor. He's the kind of horse that you'd hate to love to back - he can sprout wings and fly home when he's no chance of picking up the leaders but have back me next start written all over him, or he can do nothing. He has been kept sharp this prep with a couple of runs down the straight and they won't run this helter-skelter so any distance query should be okay for him to come with a short, sharp sprint. He has always come up short in G1 grade, but I think that he gets his best ever chance in this race.
Albert The Fat ($18) ran well on the soft track at Flemington, having back me next time written all over it, I think that he's racing like he wants the mile now and he's always threatened to win a few nice races - being a G1 winner over Melito and close-up behind Black Piranha, I think he's well weighted in this as well. Shame about the barrier - could means that he ends up a long way back with just too much work to do.
It might be a little nuts as he's always managed to seem to not quite get the mile, but geez Black Piranha is going under the radar. He got home well in the Doncaster, he ran a big race in this last year, the firmer ground will suit. That said, I'm generally not a fan of Epsom form coming into this race..
The ever firming track is going to suit Drumbeats ($8.50). He's one who has been crying out for and is twice the horse on top of the ground than he is with a drop of rain. Flemington, mile, weight relief, has enough tactical speed to get a better run than 3 wide without cover.. speaking of gunna-horses, Palacio De Cristal ($10) definitely will get the firm track she craves to show her best, but she won't be getting the pace on, has the very real prospect of running up bums and whilst Flemington will suit, she has to reach a new peak rating here to win. She's never been one of mine and she can win without me.
...and after that spiel for the ages, it's quite possible that I haven't even mentioned the trifecta haha
Wall Street - Gold Salute - Chasm - Albert The Fat
R7:
There's a long run to the first turn from the 2000m start and I don't think any of these will think they must lead - so that could leave us with a muddling affair.
I think the best horse in the race is Keep The Peace ($5) and the wide barrier doesn't concern me. She has the speed to overcome it if needed, she has the form on the board at this distance, she has one of the best jockeys at rating them on her back and the wide, open Flemington course should suit her. It's always a hard ask to declare the winner of the mares race and on paper the barrier is going to make it extremely difficult (especially if the inside is 'on') but geez I'll be disappointed if she doesn't end up winning/finishing close. At least all of her main dangers are drawn in double figures as well.. KTP is the only one in this capable of measuring up in G! WFA class (potentially here or definitely in NZ), I'm happy to do my dough if she fails
Purple ($5) may come out and win this race again, but I can't come at her. The track will be firmer than she likes and she's definitely not been the punter favourite horse since her win here last year. Her form, for a mares race, actually doesn't read that badly and this will just about be the last roll of the dice this prep to get her back on the winners list, you'd think she'll go close, but I just can't put money on her.
Keep The Peace *Best* - Moment In Time - Delta Gee - Lady Lynette
R8:
What a race! It almost seems like Geelong Cup Vs Moonee Valley Cup, let the best horse win
The obvious top two picks for mine are Exceptionally ($7) and Above Average ($7). E has been a form stayer of the season, perhaps even unlucky not to make the Melbourne Cup field, she pushed Harris Tweed here in The Bart Cummings and hasn't lost any form since then. AA has been slowly winding up to find his best here, races like this track and distance is what he wants most and he should be able to enjoy an economical run with cover and pull out at the right time to commence his run up the straight.
I thought Sea Galleon ($31) ran a super race in the MV Cup, drawn much better here he can take up a better position, Flemington and this distance should suit him down to the ground and if you like Exceptionally here, I think you have to give SG a good chance at 4 times the odds. I think we'll see a better horse next season, but he's a progressive type of stayer and the Alderson's can train and place a stayer...
Plenty of good chances - who knows, Moudre might get the breaks and today can be the day he finally wins a staying race over the Carnival.
Above Average - Sea Galleon - Exceptionally - Eatern Aria
R9:
He's short, but it should be sweet for punters - he looks the best chance of winning of the day. We're Gonna Rock ($2.30) gets the firm going which he loves here, this isn't a strong race, he missed the run in the Emirates but with even luck here We're Gonna Rock should be winning.
We're Gonna Rock - Ahdashim - Berringama - King Hoaks
I'll go for a bit of value in my Quaddie, but bugger it, I'll keep the number of combinations down and go for a large % on the last day
, I still don't think I've covered all the chances in the Emirates or Cup, but ya can't have 'em all!:3,6,9,12,13,14 (will do the Big F in another)
3
3,4,6,7,11,16
3
Best of luck today, may we all be winners
Lurkalot
Club Legend
Struck interference, held up for a run....would have won with even luck
rizzo
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Great win by Arctic Command. Looks a nice type.
Monte Carlo
Debutant
hey boys, have bought giddy up ratings today. will post top selections throughout the day.
race 2)
15 - $4.5
8 - $5
13 - $7
4 - $7.5
1 - $15
race 2)
15 - $4.5
8 - $5
13 - $7
4 - $7.5
1 - $15
Ted
Club Legend
My only big bet of the day is on Gold Salute, and I see that SYT has already given a good outline for why. He's had excuses all prep but should be back to full fitness now after setbacks, they've got the stallion chain out for him today and hopefully there won't be any repeat of last week's debacle, he's never carried such a light weight before, and his records at Flemington, at the distance and on dead/good tracks are all solid.
mattys123
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Willy Jimmy in the second, been set for this race, as for others this race is an after thought of previous failings or successes.
Barrier is the worry, yet if he can get a nice spot around midfield, he will be hard to beat, at very nice odds.
Barrier is the worry, yet if he can get a nice spot around midfield, he will be hard to beat, at very nice odds.
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Anyone think Star Witness is a good chance in race 5?
Gawd dammit. Fast Future was a big run at huge odds, thought he was winding up and half a chance halfway down the straight, getting me excited . Shame he couldn't have snuck home into a placing... needed Eraset to get second to snag the F4, just didn't rate Willy Jimmy high enough grr.
Interesting to see a leader lead all the way and win, on the good track..
. Shame he couldn't have snuck home into a placing... needed Eraset to get second to snag the F4, just didn't rate Willy Jimmy high enough grr.Interesting to see a leader lead all the way and win, on the good track..
rizzo
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Don't think I will have a punt on the next. Can't justify $1.90 even though it will win.
mattys123
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Race 3;
Tri;
4 to win
1,5 for second
1,2,4,5,7 for third
240%
Tri;
4 to win
1,5 for second
1,2,4,5,7 for third
240%
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I took a tri for some shrapnel, just an excuse to play on the race
I don't get trifecas. What does the at 500% mean? And why have you picked 4 horses?
rizzo
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Used my IASbet free bet to put it on Red Colossus
mattys123
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500% means x5 the dividend (amount the tri pays if it gets up).
And with that try, SYT took a winner for first (Red Collossus), Playwright for second and 2 others for 3rd.
Hope that helps.
I'll have each way on 7. Allanthus at $27
The_Doctor
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500% means he will get that much of the dividend, so basically 5 times whatever it pays. Also you can have as many horses as you want in a trifecta, it just costs more the more you have
Chism
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You get the winning dividend for 500% which means 5 times what it pays because 100% is the whole amount of the dividend. SYT picked 4 horses because their is 2 horses to run 3rd.
You can take a Tri with any combos. i.e 3 horses to win 2 for 2nd and 5 for third etc.
This is in order OR you can just box the horses you like but it gets expensive to do this when you have more than 5 horses.
Edit....
Others have beaten me to it!!
- Apr 19, 2008
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500% means x5 the dividend (amount the tri pays if it gets up).
And with that try, SYT took a winner for first (Red Collossus), Playwright for second and 2 others for 3rd.
Hope that helps.
Thanks. How come when you go to put a bet on a trifecta. Say if I put $30.00, it will take $40.00 out of my account?!
I've never actually played a trifecta before.
It was $100 I was never planning on investing (didn't like the first 4 races from a punting p.o.v), so I put mine on Fast Future... haha. Geez, when he got out in clear running and working home I was excited *sigh* if only there was a little more pace and Launay didn't get a picnic in front
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I give Playwright a good chance after the scratchings the favourite probably wins but i'm not sure of the Mackinnon form other than SYT not sure how true that race is playing.
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