Analysis Sydney's 2024 dominance is underrated

[SBD Gonzalez]

Top 2 is a lock. You are not losing a final at home.

In ‘22 we only won a prelim at home against Collingwood by one point.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

What is their weakness?
Perhaps a shortish backline?

Yep, our backs are hardly monsters, but I think what’s made the difference this year is how well the midfield are clicking, and consequently we’re cutting off a lot of supply to the opponent’s attacking 50 before it becomes an issue.

 

[bottomboy]

What is their weakness?
Perhaps a shortish backline?

And a so-so forward line that is only looking decent thanks to the most amazing midfield in the league.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

Given that every team mentioned by the OP made the GF and lost, I'm happy to be one of the other teams in this scenario.

I asked in another thread how many times has a team been a clear #1 side and a cut above everyone else and gone on to win the lot. I feel that this stat adds to that theory.

Swans are certainly humming though. Just not sure that's a good thing... for them.

 

[Fadge]

Given that every team mentioned by the OP made the GF and lost, I'm happy to be one of the other teams in this scenario.

I asked in another thread how many times has a team been a clear #1 side and a cut above everyone else and gone on to win the lot. I feel that this stat adds to that theory.

Swans are certainly humming though. Just not sure that's a good thing... for them.

But the #1 side who is humming along at this stage of the season, even if they have 'only' gone on to win the flag 50% of the time, is much more likely to do so than any other individual team who is currently on any other position on the ladder at this stage of the season...

 

[Kapers]

I'm more scared of Collingwood than Carlton tbh. I just feel like they know how to win, just a weird intangible.

If we turn up to finals (BIG IF) we win, no team is near our best, the issue is we have had a history of being no shows when it matters.

 

[Eshay187]

Also annoying that brisbane have come good. Would much rather Collingwood and brisbane weren’t around

 

[Arr0w]

From 1990

Side finishing on top has won the flag 12 times

Only 4 sides have won it finishing outside the top 3

 

[BloodySwan]

What is their weakness?
Perhaps a shortish backline?

Move the ball quickly and put pressure on our defence.

We defend as a whole team so you need to break through the midfield and get to your F50 and expose our defenders 1-on-1.

 

[Fadge]

From 1990

Side finishing on top has won the flag 12 times

Only 4 sides have won it finishing outside the top 3

The finals system was very different from 2000 onwards compared to a few different variations between 1990 and 1999 (which provided greater opportunity for teams outside the top 4 to win the premiership).

1 instance in 24 seasons since 2000 where a team has won from outside the top 4 is about what you could expect given the current finals system, though the fact no team has yet won it from 4th is a statistical anomaly.

 

[Arr0w]

The finals system was very different from 2000 onwards compared to a few different variations between 1990 and 1999 (which provided greater opportunity for teams outside the top 4 to win the premiership).

1 instance in 24 seasons since 2000 where a team has won from outside the top 4 is about what you could expect given the current finals system, though the fact no team has yet won it from 4th is a statistical anomaly.

Interesting isn't it, finishing 4th with the double chance and never winning a flag

Haven't drilled down, but perhaps the gap between 1st and 4th in quality is wider than we think

Then the following week most likely against the 5th placed side

Might drill down further

 

[Fadge]

Interesting isn't it, finishing 4th with the double chance and never winning a flag

Haven't drilled down, but perhaps the gap between 1st and 4th in quality is wider than we think

Then the following week most likely against the 5th placed side

Might drill down further

Given the 3rd placed team has won the flag 7 times since 2000, it is simply a statistical anomaly that 4th hasn't won it.

The 4th placed team has played in 3 Grand Finals, and had four additional narrow Preliminary Final losses (9 points or less).

If we had 100 finals series under the current finals system, my abacus has calculated the following distribution of premiership winners:
First - 42
Second - 26
Third - 18
Fourth - 10
Fifth to Eighth - 4

 

[Cyclops]

I'm more scared of Collingwood than Carlton tbh. I just feel like they know how to win, just a weird intangible.

If we turn up to finals (BIG IF) we win, no team is near our best, the issue is we have had a history of being no shows when it matters.

Also annoying that brisbane have come good. Would much rather Collingwood and brisbane weren’t around

Thats flattering, thank you, and we are an annoying side these days, but to my mind Brisbane is the one with the skill to demolish anyone in the 8.

The unfair MCG final is what gives the Pies a chance, but I wouldn't give us much of a chance at the SCG.

Brisbane I feel can win anywhere, now they are overcoming the injury toll. Bloody Ashcroft back, so much midfield quality.

 

[BringFevBack2021]

Thats flattering, thank you, and we are an annoying side these days, but to my mind Brisbane is the one with the skill to demolish anyone in the 8.

The unfair MCG final is what gives the Pies a chance, but I wouldn't give us much of a chance at the SCG.

Brisbane I feel can win anywhere, now they are overcoming the injury toll. Bloody Ashcroft back, so much midfield quality.

I think Pies beat us H2H this year too tbf (and I thought we’d beat you in the GF had we made it last year)

They’re a boogeyman side, you as a Pies fan are probably more realistic about them or even a touch cynical whereas oppo fans view them with a bit of an aura at present

Lions are firing now and get Ashcroft back which makes it more interesting

I still think it’s:
Sydney
Daylight
Carlton
A gap, but not significant
Lions
Pies
Freo
Essendon
Bulldogs

And that’s where I rule out all other contenders - Sydney are out and out the best right now though

 

[Woof]

They have a massive 23/24 regular season Boston Celtics vibe about them that people don’t really believe they’re as good as they are despite all the evidence. Won’t surprise me if they have the same result as the post season Celtics.

 

[CarterS]

The wheel could fall off next week, so I don’t intend this to sound arrogant, but where are those teams going to appear from?

prophetic

 

[H00t]

Will need to fix their first quarters up. Can’t afford to let teams get 5-6 goals up against them early in a final

 

[Purple Suit]

OP is wrong, Freo were close to them in their first game but couldn't kick straight coming off a 5 day break & death of a team mate. Amazing what accurate goal kicking does.

 

[thisismyname]

What happened? This is the biggest upset of the year, especially with all the swans supporters and media having declared them the champion about 3 weeks ago.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

What happened? This is the biggest upset of the year, especially with all the swans supporters and media having declared them the champion about 3 weeks ago.

Clearly you have a different internet.

 

[kreuze_missile]

What dominance?

 

[The King!]

Had this chat with my Swans mad FIL.

I almost feel like Swans need to start resting players / getting in that mini finals training bloc over the next month.

Am I crazy to say you want to lose a game or two over the next few months to get it “out of the system” pre finals?

Hopefully this is correct

 

[The King!]

What happened? This is the biggest upset of the year, especially with all the swans supporters and media having declared them the champion about 3 weeks ago.

Say what you want about the media but Swans fans are overly negative if anything .

 

[windyhill]

Only the really good ones go 24-1.

 

[HairyO]

Only the really good ones go 24-1.

The best ones know you can 3-peat without winning 20 H&A games in a season.

Just have to not drink your bathwater.