TAB Odds - How do they work it out?

[calvinho]

Ok, I know betting websites are very little to go off, especially after only 5 rounds, and I don't want the media hyping us up saying how great we are like last year, i'd much rather we went fairly unnoticed and played into form rather than peaking early.

However, the current odds on TAB are:

Carlton - $4
Hawthorn - $5.50
West Coast - $6
Geelong - $7
Collingwood - $8.50

Now, I find these odds staggering.

Carlton - Great form against Richmond, Brisbane and then hammered us, but then got convincingly beaten by Essendon and had Freo been on their game they'd have lost that too. A big win over the Lions and a big win over Collingwood doesn't mean too much if you can't back it up against Essendon. Wouldn't be surprised if they dropped another game or two before the bye.

Hawthorn - These odds surprise me the most. Yes they lost to Geelong and West Coast in WA, both games that could've gone in their favour, but they got murdered in that final quarter against the Swans and looked beaten while they still had a chance of winning. Defensively poor. Expect them to get beaten by St. Kilda this weekend when finally everyone will wake up and realise 'No Buddy and Cyril, no Hawthorn premiership team'.

West Coast - Can't really argue with those odds, although like with Geelong, only just got over Richmond but we're questioned when beating them much more convincingly.

Geelong - Look at the very least as good as the Hawks, although against North they were beaten every quarter apart from the last where they put up a mini fight. The Brisbane scoreline on Saturday flattered them, Brisbane had more scoring shots and on a clear night the scoreline could've been very different, they just played the conditions better.

Collingwood - Tight loss against the Hawks with a team littered with rookies, we then got over Richmond more convincingly than the media had us believe. We were up almost 10 goals at one point and took our foot off the pedal to preserve ourselves, yet we were questioned heavily. We've since seen Geelong only beat them by 2 goals at Simonds, and West Coast doing the same at Etihad yesterday (yet little mention of the struggle these teams faced. Might it be the Tigers are now a solid side? We disposed of them comfortably without ever being in danger of losing like Geelong and West Coast both were)

Yes, it didn't look too good the following week being hammered by Carlton, but let's give our boys the benefit of the doubt and say it was a very, very poor night. Hey, the media did it for Carlton when they got smashed by the Bombers. We've since beaten a much improved Port, again in my eyes not having to push ourselves too hard, and then a huge win against an inspired Essendon who had just smashed one of their bitter rivals.

I know it's early to say, and a lot of you will say 'who cares what everyone thinks', but I feel we deserve a little more respect than that, and have as much chance as any of those teams of eventually winning the flag. We have more injuries than anyone else, and our younger players are getting valuable experience in their absence like many of you have previously said.

The next three games will be vital and should give us an indication of exactly where we stand, but I really feel if we don't kick on now we'll only have ourselves to blame.

Also, everyone get $100 on Collingwood, the odds won't be this good again for the rest of the season and you may just win a tidy sum

 

[Pie eyed]

Not much of abetting man, but the odds go pretty much by how much people are betting on which sides.

Blues would be low odds due to the fact that every Carlton supporter on earth has had a bet this year for the first time in a decade.

 

[Scodog10]

It's all based on the amount of money held. Collingwood won't drift much further but the reason their on the fifth line is because the bookies are probably holding ten times the money on Carlton and Hawthorn compared to us.

Sydney should be shorter but for the time being are still longish odds because no ones putting money on them for the flag. As a rule of thumb bookmaker odds are usually pretty innaccurate this time of year before the big punters jump on.

 

[vjknight]

Ok, I know betting websites are very little to go off, especially after only 5 rounds, and I don't want the media hyping us up saying how great we are like last year, i'd much rather we went fairly unnoticed and played into form rather than peaking early.

However, the current odds on TAB are:

Carlton - $4
Hawthorn - $5.50
West Coast - $6
Geelong - $7
Collingwood - $8.50

Now, I find these odds staggering.

to be honest its about right.

carlscum not fav cos they are the best team, but purely on weight of money on them consistently.
hawks were favs for months and hence same again.
west coast due to their home games and distinct possibility of home finals.
geelong cos theyre geelong.
and collingwood - a poor start stops the flood of money weve seen previous years, but likewise i am a little surprised - $7 would be normal at this point.

bookies have to balance their books, not simply have their opinion guide that the odds are. the market will be framed according to where the money is heading both previously and at present. with no one from melbourne starring at present, the plunge is yet to occur.

but it will.

 

[calvinho]

Ah ok thanks guys, don't know why i've not thought of that. So it's not so much based on knowledge, form and wisdom, but more on the fact that 30,000 carlton fans have gone and lumped loads of money on their team to win the flag because they've managed to beat a couple of mediocre sides.. makes me feel much better! These odds aren't created by the people in the know, but more by biased football fans. When i'm told Carlton are flag favourites, i'll look at it so much differently now.

 

[RobV]

Ah ok thanks guys, don't know why i've not thought of that. So it's not so much based on knowledge, form and wisdom, but more on the fact that 30,000 carlton fans have gone and lumped loads of money on their team to win the flag because they've managed to beat a couple of mediocre sides.. makes me feel much better! These odds aren't created by the people in the know, but more by biased football fans. When i'm told Carlton are flag favourites, i'll look at it so much differently now.

Correct, It is also why we always seem to be favourites at the start of the year. We have lots of supporters who bet on us so the bookies keep our odds low so they don't lose out too much if we do win the flag.

 

[wmvaux]

If I were doing the odds right now

West Coast - $4.50
Geelong - $5.50
Sydney - $6
Carlton - $6
Hawthorn - $6.50
Collingwood - $7.50

West Coast have been a class act so far this season and has won when challenged. May have improved slightly on last season.

Geelong have to be close as they have proven themselves over 5 seasons, their loses so for weren't that bad. May have come back to the pack slightly, but should still respect.

Sydney have had solid wins, but still early to be tested by a number of top teams. Win against Hawthorn was impressive and deserve to be at least equal with Carlton at this stage.

Carlton look to have improved slightly and due to the fact Geelong and Collingwood have come back to the field will be in contention for a top 4 spot, their loss to Essendon shows they can't be considered one of the top teams just yet.

Hawthorn have shown they aren't far away, but still find it hard to beat teams up the top.

Collingwood are struggling with form and injuries, don't have the dominance of the last 2 seasons. Will need some kids to step up if they are to improve their chances in 2012. Will be battling for a chance due to quality players on their list.

 

[calvinho]

Also explains why Man City are favourites to beat Man Utd (which would put them top on goal difference with only two games to go), yet Man Utd are still currently favourites to win the league in two weeks time. More money placed on Man City to win the upcoming game, yet more money on Man Utd over the course of the season to win the league. I've always understood the bookies will never lose out and they will always try to cover their own backs, I just presumed they listened to media and had people within their company who had insight and vast knowledge too.

 

[SuperSub17]

At some stage early-to-mid 2010 we were $10.

In 2011 our flag odds were shorter before the prelim that they were after it. Like others have said it is what the public think, not the bookies, and we all know that the general public 's opinion rarely amounts to anything.

 

[yeee_haaaa!!!!!]

$8.50 is enormous value for the best team in the comp, even without luke ball

if you want to make some money on the flag market regardless of whether we win or lose it, now is the time to act. back us to win it now at $8.50. the next step involves a betfair account, so you will either need one already or have to open 1 up. our next 6 games are - dogs, lions, cats, crows, suns, dees. at worst, we will win 5 of them and be 8-3 at the break. i fully expect us to win them all and be 9-2

we will be about $4-$5 the flag after round 11. if we get to 9-2 i reckon we will be favourites. you then lay off at the shorter odds, guaranteeing you a profit regardless of who wins the flag

ie. i have had $2000 for us to win it at $9 already, giving me a profit of 16K if we do

after round 11, even at $5, i will accept a bet of $3000 laying the pies, standing to lose $12K. therefore, if we win i make an overall profit of 4K, if we don't it's 1K. can't lose. only a horror run over the next 6 rounds can see this strategy go awry, and let's face it we are playing some fair rabbles in that time apart from the cats

 

[legendstatus]

Dont know what it is but I have an air of confidence that the Pies are slowly cranking up the gears, with 3-4 A grades back this week and some kids starting show something in the seconds.... reckon we are going to be back to Prem favorites in about 5 weeks.... my only concern... LUKE BALL not in the middle.

 

[Bay Pie]

carlton supporters tend to 'deal' in cash more then most. Cash is difficult to launder or buy large items therefore must be spent on smaller, disposable items.

 

[Normy132]

It's all about demand. The more demand the bookies get on teams, the lower they make the odds to drive off as much chance of paying out a heap of money as possible.

 

[Gone Critical]

$8.50 is enormous value for the best team in the comp, even without luke ball

if you want to make some money on the flag market regardless of whether we win or lose it, now is the time to act. back us to win it now at $8.50. the next step involves a betfair account, so you will either need one already or have to open 1 up. our next 6 games are - dogs, lions, cats, crows, suns, dees. at worst, we will win 5 of them and be 8-3 at the break. i fully expect us to win them all and be 9-2

we will be about $4-$5 the flag after round 11. if we get to 9-2 i reckon we will be favourites. you then lay off at the shorter odds, guaranteeing you a profit regardless of who wins the flag

ie. i have had $2000 for us to win it at $9 already, giving me a profit of 16K if we do

after round 11, even at $5, i will accept a bet of $3000 laying the pies, standing to lose $12K. therefore, if we win i make an overall profit of 4K, if we don't it's 1K. can't lose. only a horror run over the next 6 rounds can see this strategy go awry, and let's face it we are playing some fair rabbles in that time apart from the cats

I agree with this. Collingwood is massively overs at the moment and I have loaded up a bit myself. The $8.50 for the flag is good but the most attractive for mine is the $3.50 being offered on a top 4 possie. At the moment Carl and WCE are paying $1.25 so you get more than 9x the dividend for Collingwood finishing top 4 compared to Carlton.

If as Yeee.Haaa suggests we get to round 11 at 9-2 o 8-3 the $3.30 will have been reeled way in and you can lay off or as I probably would do let it all ride and trust the boys. I have taken $4.50 for making the GF and $8.50 for the flag and will reassess at round 11 to see if I lay off or not

If you like a punt these are great odds. Its never guaranteed so don't put what you cant afford on but there are dollars in the offing for Pie punting at the moment which isn't always the case

 

[Gone Critical]

$8.50 is enormous value for the best team in the comp, even without luke ball

if you want to make some money on the flag market regardless of whether we win or lose it, now is the time to act. back us to win it now at $8.50. the next step involves a betfair account, so you will either need one already or have to open 1 up. our next 6 games are - dogs, lions, cats, crows, suns, dees. at worst, we will win 5 of them and be 8-3 at the break. i fully expect us to win them all and be 9-2

we will be about $4-$5 the flag after round 11. if we get to 9-2 i reckon we will be favourites. you then lay off at the shorter odds, guaranteeing you a profit regardless of who wins the flag

ie. i have had $2000 for us to win it at $9 already, giving me a profit of 16K if we do

after round 11, even at $5, i will accept a bet of $3000 laying the pies, standing to lose $12K. therefore, if we win i make an overall profit of 4K, if we don't it's 1K. can't lose. only a horror run over the next 6 rounds can see this strategy go awry, and let's face it we are playing some fair rabbles in that time apart from the cats

The match that this will turn on a lot is Geelong. Assuming we beat Dogs and Lions in next 2 week we will be 5-2. Knock off Geelong the next week means 6-2 and odds should be right in, lose it and we may not be terribly different

 

[RobV]

$3 for top 4 is very attractive, will most like put it in a multi with Vettle for the F1 and get $8.20 or so.