The 2015 Attendance Thread

[dave10]

True.

Essendon play 8 games this year at the G ( 4 home and 4 away ) and 9 at Docklands.

They are effectively evenly split between the two grounds with both home and away games against the bigger Victorian teams almost always at the G.

Docklands does impact but it is easy to overstate it. Their 7 home Docklands games consist largely of inter state opposition plus the likes of the Dogs, Saints and Norf and in a year like this I suspect playing 9 games at the G instead of 4 - which would entail transferring 5 of those relatively unattractive fixtures - would be good for about 4,000 per game extra with an aggregate increase in attendance of about 20,000 overall.

I suspect that Melbourne this week would have drawn about 33 to 34,000 to the Dome with 4,000 extra at the G and this would be true of most "non marquee" match ups. 4K by 5 extra games= 20,000.

In a poor year like this year I agree with the 20,000 additional. Though the Roos game on the Friday night in round 7 probably would've pushed 55,000 this year in all likelihood..

In the stronger years on field, this difference would likely be significantly larger. A top 4 Essendon playing most Vic clubs would likely draw between 50-75,000 at the G. Agree with yesterday's fixture being at Ethihad 33-34k. However given a fine day even yesterday would have probably drawn 45,000. That's a 11-12K difference between the crowds pertaining to the venue on this day. This is because Essendon and Melbourne have large MCC followings that don't go to Ethihad.

In years when a strong Essendon would play equally strong Vic clubs at Ethihad (eg games V Hawks and Cats in recent years) we have sadly seen in many instances 10-30,000 locked out per game. Therefore, in strong years on field this variance could be upwards of 80-100,000 in a year.

 

[dave10]

Edit: points below about the fixture already made by other posts not seen originally

I think you're being incredibly generous to Essendon here. Firstly, there have only been 3 lower Ess - Melb crowds at the G in the last 25 years. If it had have been a Collingwood - Melb game that figure would have been in the lowest 10 in the last 60 years. While there are obvious reasons for the crowd being low it doesn't make it a "very good" one.

Secondly, Essendon are high up on the yearly figures so far mainly because they've had all their big drawing games and few of their lowest. They've yet to go to Queensland or GWS and have hosted only 1 interstate team. At the end of the day year they will in all likelihood fail to reach 1 million through the gate for the third time in 4 years.

Again refer to my last post which projects 940000 given everything you and I raise re fixture.
At the same time Essendon is going through the most difficult period in the last 25 years. Rain, all car parks closed, terrible form, 110pt loss, season over, 14th V 15th yet still 39,000. A very good crowd it was. Compare this to recent Melbourne V Carlton crowds at the G.. Compares extremely well indeed.

Let's see how Collingwood would go yesterday in the same circumstances?? Late last year we had a good insight into this with some very poor crowds. Poor crowds, empty Ponsford Stands.. Less than 50,000 V Hawthorn amongst several poor crowds. I'm not convinced Collingwoid would draw much more than Essendon this year with our fixture, venues, on field results etc. The last 5-6 rounds last year would support this.

Yesterday Collingwood would have probably only draw 40-41,000 I reckon.

 

[gaelictiogar]

In a poor year like this year I agree with the 20,000 additional. Though the Roos game on the Friday night in round 7 probably would've pushed 55,000 this year in all likelihood..

In the stronger years on field, this difference would likely be significantly larger. A top 4 Essendon playing most Vic clubs would likely draw between 50-75,000 at the G. Agree with yesterday's fixture being at Ethihad 33-34k. However given a fine day even yesterday would have probably drawn 45,000. That's a 11-12K difference between the crowds pertaining to the venue on this day. This is because Essendon and Melbourne have large MCC followings that don't go to Ethihad.

In years when a strong Essendon would play equally strong Vic clubs at Ethihad (eg games V Hawks and Cats in recent years) we have sadly seen in many instances 10-30,000 locked out per game. Therefore, in strong years on field this variance could be upwards of 80-100,000 in a year.

Whilst I agree with the thrust of your point Dave I would suggest perhaps a bit more conservatism in how the change to the G might impact in better years.

EG we often read and hear of tens of thousands being locked out when Essendon play the Hawks at the Dome yet with the exception of a final round de facto elimination final some years ago which drew 77,000 the fixture when played at the G has never drawn more than 65,000 and averages much less than that. WhiltheG does impact we wouldn't want to overstae its impact.

20K in a bad year and perhaps 40 to 50K in a good year would be perhaps the ball park.

 

[Hawkk]

From what I understand of what the intentions of the club is, it will be a 7-4 (6-5 worst case) favouring the G. Simply moving the annual Hawks / Cats (or the 2 highest expected drawing fixtures each year to the G).

Good luck reneging on a contract with a decade still to run to achieve that...

 

[Hawkk]

Whilst I agree with the thrust of your point Dave I would suggest perhaps a bit more conservatism in how the change to the G might impact in better years.

EG we often read and hear of tens of thousands being locked out when Essendon play the Hawks at the Dome yet with the exception of a final round de facto elimination final some years ago which drew 77,000 the fixture when played at the G has never drawn more than 65,000 and averages much less than that. WhiltheG does impact we wouldn't want to overstae its impact.

20K in a bad year and perhaps 40 to 50K in a good year would be perhaps the ball park.

Essendon and Hawthorn is definitely a fixture that hasn't reached potential. Its removed from Geelong and Essemdon in that it has potential to be a massive fixture.

That said I don't think you could argue that Essendon v Hawthorn - 2001, 2009, 2013 and possibly 2012 wouldn't have drawn huge crowds.

Since 2007 the average MCG between the two clubs is over 63,000 (77k, 61k, 55k, 65k, 60k, 62k) and aside from 2009 round 22 those 3 fixtures were far more hyped

 

[dave10]

Whilst I agree with the thrust of your point Dave I would suggest perhaps a bit more conservatism in how the change to the G might impact in better years.

EG we often read and hear of tens of thousands being locked out when Essendon play the Hawks at the Dome yet with the exception of a final round de facto elimination final some years ago which drew 77,000 the fixture when played at the G has never drawn more than 65,000 and averages much less than that. WhiltheG does impact we wouldn't want to overstae its impact.

20K in a bad year and perhaps 40 to 50K in a good year would be perhaps the ball park.

This has been one of the quirky and intriguing fixtures to understand. This is because in most instances, the games when both teams have been up has been the Ethihad fixture. Better people than me (Eg: calling Hawkk to suss out) will be able to confirm that other than that game you note in 2009, most MCG games have been the lesser fixture in term of crowd potential. Many Ethihad fixtures have been blockbusters with a 44,000 lock out. I could probably count 5-6 Ess V Hawks games at Ethihad that would likely have drawn the 70-80,000 like that the 2009 game drew. You better than anyone can attest to this consideration. For example, two weeks ago another almost dud fixture drew 62,500. Surely it would have pulled 75,000+ if it were 3 V 4 on that same fine day? It's arguably the blockbuster with the most upside due to a natural simmering rivalry that wants to explode. It just needs a blockbuster status on a fine day and it will be 75,000 again. Unless it's again at Ethihad!

There have been several matches V Hawks and Geelong recently that fit this bill in the last 15 years. The best reference is the late 1990's. It regularly drew 65-70,000+ to the G against its strongest Vic opponents, 50-60,000 on many occasions against the other Vic clubs.. This would be the same today.

 

[gopies1981]

Essendon will be behind purely they play out of Etihad. What does surprises me are the Tigers! They have been a basket case far longer than Essendon has yet still pull in very impressive numbers through the gates. If Essendon & Richmond were to win a flag & effectively be a top 4 side for several year similar to the pies, they could easily pull in better numbers than the pies!

Cannot see any team beating the 1,306,000 home and away attendance that Collingwood had in 2010.

With all things being equal no team has ever drawn more then Collingwood when Collingwood have played finals since the afl started in 1990!

 

[gopies1981]

Again refer to my last post which projects 940000 given everything you and I raise re fixture.
At the same time Essendon is going through the most difficult period in the last 25 years. Rain, all car parks closed, terrible form, 110pt loss, season over, 14th V 15th yet still 39,000. A very good crowd it was. Compare this to recent Melbourne V Carlton crowds at the G.. Compares extremely well indeed.

Let's see how Collingwood would go yesterday in the same circumstances?? Late last year we had a good insight into this with some very poor crowds. Poor crowds, empty Ponsford Stands.. Less than 50,000 V Hawthorn amongst several poor crowds. I'm not convinced Collingwoid would draw much more than Essendon this year with our fixture, venues, on field results etc. The last 5-6 rounds last year would support this.

Yesterday Collingwood would have probably only draw 40-41,000 I reckon.

Collingwood v Melbourne yesterday would of attracted 50,000.

 

[WagonBang]

GWS v St Kilda - 9,178

 

[dave_27]

Collingwood v Melbourne yesterday would of attracted 50,000.

In the same circumstances as Essendon? Probably not.

The last time Collingwood played a home game out of finals contention was last year v Hawthorn and the crowd didnt even reach 50k on a Friday night and it being a members replacement game for hawks members.

The last time Collingwood played Melbourne outside of a public holiday were Round 2 2009 and Round 2 2010 and the crowds were 43,176 and 50,421.

 

[dave10]

Collingwood v Melbourne yesterday would of attracted 50,000.

No chance at all. We got a taste of Collingwood attendances late last year when Collingwood were a bit ordinary on field. 49,000 V Hawthorn on a fine Friday night. 28,000 V Dogs (away game), sub 36,000 V Lions.. It only drew 45,000 in the wet against St Kilda earlier this year as well I. A fresh new season. 41,000 is as much as they would've drawn yesterday.

 

[sverik25]

GWS v St Kilda - 9,178

In previous years this game would have drawn 6,000 so it is good to see GWS crowds staying up.

 

[The_Wookie]

 

[Rouel_14]

I agree that both Richmond and Collingwood will be ahead at years end and they will in all likelihood fail to draw 1,000,000 - in fact they won't.

However against a background of simply awful damage to the image of the club due to frankly shaming self inflicted wounds allied to poor onfield performance the 940,000 of so they will draw is superb.

It is easy to understate the dampening impact of being outside the running for much of a season. Numbers fall like a stone.

I'm not sure about the pies, but I with a quick add up of modest turn outs Richmond should do it pretty easy I think

So far: 675000

Vs saints 35000 (Maddys Riewoldt game)
Vs Freo 35000 (Saturday arvo)
Vs Hawks 50000 (Friday night)
Vs crows 40000(Friday night)
Vs Gold Coast 35000 (Sunday arvo)
Vs pies 50000 (Saturday arvo)
Vs bombers 50000 (Saturday night)
Vs North 30000 (TBA)

= 1,000,000
These are all pretty low figures with a lot of blockbusters still to come

Make no mistake an inform Tigers has the pulling power to rival any team and could see up to 1,085,000

-Saints game could be as high as 45000 as it is expected to sell out
-Freo could be 45000 playing for top 4
-Hawks could be as high as 60000 on a Friday night
-crows very likely to have at least 45000
-pies could be 60000
-bombers could be 60000
-North could be playing for a finals spot too.

 

[gaelictiogar]

I'm not sure about the pies, but I with a quick add up of modest turn outs Richmond should do it pretty easy I think

So far: 675000

Vs saints 35000 (Maddys Riewoldt game)
Vs Freo 35000 (Saturday arvo)
Vs Hawks 50000 (Friday night)
Vs crows 40000(Friday night)
Vs Gold Coast 35000 (Sunday arvo)
Vs pies 50000 (Saturday arvo)
Vs bombers 50000 (Saturday night)
Vs North 30000 (TBA)

= 1,000,000
These are all pretty low figures with a lot of blockbusters still to come

Make no mistake an inform Tigers has the pulling power to rival any team and could see up to 1,085,000

-Saints game could be as high as 45000 as it is expected to sell out
-Freo could be 45000 playing for top 4
-Hawks could be as high as 60000 on a Friday night
-crows very likely to have at least 45000
-pies could be 60000
-bombers could be 60000
-North could be playing for a finals spot too.

The Pies game actually has the potential to be very big. 60,000 is a sensible forecast but if things fell right we could have one of those late round de facto final eliminations which would see the attendance simply explode. Equally there is upside in the Hawks game if both are vying for top 4....could be upwards of 70,000. Don't rule that out. 60,000 V Essendon probably near enough correct but it will demand a very big Richmond turnout with Essendon finished for the year.

overall though

 

[dave_27]

I'm not sure about the pies, but I with a quick add up of modest turn outs Richmond should do it pretty easy I think

So far: 675000

Vs saints 35000 (Maddys Riewoldt game)
Vs Freo 35000 (Saturday arvo)
Vs Hawks 50000 (Friday night)
Vs crows 40000(Friday night)
Vs Gold Coast 35000 (Sunday arvo)
Vs pies 50000 (Saturday arvo)
Vs bombers 50000 (Saturday night)
Vs North 30000 (TBA)

= 1,000,000
These are all pretty low figures with a lot of blockbusters still to come

Make no mistake an inform Tigers has the pulling power to rival any team and could see up to 1,085,000

-Saints game could be as high as 45000 as it is expected to sell out
-Freo could be 45000 playing for top 4
-Hawks could be as high as 60000 on a Friday night
-crows very likely to have at least 45000
-pies could be 60000
-bombers could be 60000
-North could be playing for a finals spot too.

Richmond v Hawthorn will be ALOT bigger than that.

The way it's tracking atm it's a minimum of 60k, the last time they played each other in this position and a hawks home game was 2013 on a wet Sat arvo and it drew 64k.

 

[Rouel_14]

The Pies game actually has the potential to be very big. 60,000 is a sensible forecast but if things fell right we could have one of those late round de facto final eliminations which would see the attendance simply explode. Equally there is upside in the Hawks game if both are vying for top 4....could be upwards of 70,000. Don't rule that out. 60,000 V Essendon probably near enough correct but it will demand a very big Richmond turnout with Essendon finished for the year.

overall though

I couldn't agree more! Those numbers have a lot more upwards potential that downwards meaning that we will get 1 million people through the gate easily.

 

[Rouel_14]

Richmond v Hawthorn will be ALOT bigger than that.

The way it's tracking atm it's a minimum of 60k, the last time they played each other in this position and a hawks home game was 2013 on a wet Sat arvo and it drew 64k.

Completely agree! A lot of those could be a lot bigger such as:

-Vs saints 45000 (Maddys Riewoldt game and nearly a sell out already)
-Vs Freo 50000 (Saturday arvo and could break Freo home and away record as we come close in 2013)
-Vs Hawks 70000 (Friday night potentially playing for a top 4 spot)
-Vs crows 50000 (Friday night with crows playing for a place in the finals)
Vs Gold Coast 40000 (Sunday arvo not sure if there home and away record crowd ?)
Vs pies 80000 (Saturday arvo could be a genuine late home and away blockbuster)
Vs bombers 60000 (Saturday night pulled this last year with both teams middle of the road
Vs North 40000 (TBA with a top 4 on the line for tigers and a top 8 for North)

 

[Hawkk]

Richmond v Hawthorn will be ALOT bigger than that.

The way it's tracking atm it's a minimum of 60k, the last time they played each other in this position and a hawks home game was 2013 on a wet Sat arvo and it drew 64k.

The Hawks and Tigers has never drawn a big crowd (ie 70,000 plus) but that game has huge potential.

So far our MCG home games have drawn very strong crowds:

V Geelong 73,584 (Easter Monday)
V Sydney 63,319
V Essendon 62,500
V Melbourne 41,935

Pretty amazing to think that before 2008 Hawthorn had only drawn 60,000 plus to 2 home games in their history...this year alone we will probably have 4 (last year we had 3 home games over 70,000)

It's just a shame about our Tasmanian games. Yet another underwhelming attendance in Launceston. It's basically impossible for the Hawks to crack 1,000,000 at the gate as long as they play 4 games in Tasmania (I figure we will end up 920,000 to 950,000 - 922,000 is our record)

If not for Tasmania we probably would have cracked 1,000,000 in 2008, 2010, 2014 and 2015...but we wouldn't have the 9000 or so Tasmanian members so horses for courses

 

[dave_27]

Pretty amazing to think that before 2008 Hawthorn had only drawn 60,000 plus to 2 home games in their history...this year alone we will probably have 4 (last year we had 3 home games over 70,000)

It's just a shame about our Tasmanian games. Yet another underwhelming attendance in Launceston. It's basically impossible for the Hawks to crack 1,000,000 at the gate as long as they play 4 games in Tasmania (I figure we will end up 920,000 to 950,000 - 922,000 is our record)

If not for Tasmania we probably would have cracked 1,000,000 in 2008, 2010, 2014 and 2015...but we wouldn't have the 9000 or so Tasmanian members so horses for courses

Honestly despite all of Hawthorns milestones in regards to attendances and members since 2008 I have never truly believed they were really challenging Collingwood, Richmond etc in regards to off field but attending the Essendon v Hawthorn game a few weeks ago really made me take notice of how big Hawthorn are becoming.

I have attended most Essendon v Hawthorn games the last 25 years and I have never seen that many Hawthorn fans against Essendon. This was no big game, it was a run of the mil game expected to be completely one sided thrashing and I was surrounded by young families and kids in hawks colours.

It was the first time for me Hawthorns growth was tangible, it was like an unexpected slap in the face sitting there and observing brown and gold in the crowd.

 

[Hawkk]

This has been one of the quirky and intriguing fixtures to understand. This is because in most instances, the games when both teams have been up has been the Ethihad fixture. Better people than me (Eg: calling Hawkk to suss out) will be able to confirm that other than that game you note in 2009, most MCG games have been the lesser fixture in term of crowd potential. Many Ethihad fixtures have been blockbusters with a 44,000 lock out. I could probably count 5-6 Ess V Hawks games at Ethihad that would likely have drawn the 70-80,000 like that the 2009 game drew. You better than anyone can attest to this consideration. For example, two weeks ago another almost dud fixture drew 62,500. Surely it would have pulled 75,000+ if it were 3 V 4 on that same fine day? It's arguably the blockbuster with the most upside due to a natural simmering rivalry that wants to explode. It just needs a blockbuster status on a fine day and it will be 75,000 again. Unless it's again at Ethihad!

There have been several matches V Hawks and Geelong recently that fit this bill in the last 15 years. The best reference is the late 1990's. It regularly drew 65-70,000+ to the G against its strongest Vic opponents, 50-60,000 on many occasions against the other Vic clubs.. This would be the same today.

Pretty much...

2001 (1st v 2nd), 2009 (Dons 25 year anniversary of 1984/85), 2013 (1st v 2nd) and possibly 2012 (4th v 7th) and 2014 (round 2) are the standouts.

We quickly forget that Essendon were up and around the top 4 for most of 2012, 2013 and some parts of 2014!

Probably the only disappointing crowds in recent years were 2010 (61k - when it was 1-5 v 2-4 + 55k) and round 2 this year (60k)

That round 2 crowd this season was very, very ordinary though

 

[gopies1981]

End of season home and away predictions for Collingwood, Richmond and Essendon

Collingwood 709383

V West Coast 40,000
V Western Bulldogs 40,000
V Melbourne 50,000
V Carlton 55,000
V Sydney 40,000
V Richmond 80,000
V Geelong 55,000
V Essendon 55,000

Total 1,124,000

Richmond 674,250

V st.kilda 35,000
V Fremantle 40,000
V Hawthorn 75,000
V Adelaide 45,000
V Gold Coast 35,000
V Collingwood 80,000
V Essendon 55,000
V North Melbourne 40,000

Total 1,079,000

Essendon 675,745

V North Melbourne 35,000
V Port Adelaide 30,000
V Western Bullgdogs 35,000
V GWS 10,000
V Adelaide 30,000
V Gold Coast 15,000
V Richmond 55,000
V Collingwood 55,000

Total 940,000

 

[dave_27]

Essendon 675,745

V North Melbourne 35,000
V Port Adelaide 30,000
V Western Bullgdogs 35,000
V GWS 10,000
V Adelaide 30,000
V Gold Coast 15,000
V Richmond 55,000
V Collingwood 55,000

Total 940,000

Thats pretty much spot on for Esendon I reckon, Im not expecting more to any of those games atm.

Actually last round v Collingwood or last home game v Richmond could possibly be the last game of Fletcher so they could end up massive.

 

[Cmarsh]

#AFLSunsDogs in Cairns: 9,449.

http://wwos.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=9006977

Source: https://twitter.com/Phil_Staley

lowest crowd ever for an AFL fixture there.

 

[Papa G]

Thats pretty much spot on for Esendon I reckon, Im not expecting more to any of those games atm.

Actually last round v Collingwood or last home game v Richmond could possibly be the last game of Fletcher so they could end up massive.

No extras to boo Paddy Ryder on a Saturday night to release a bit of anger?