List Mgmt. The 2024 Draft (Nov 20/21)

[Keys]

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Key Dates

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• Oct 17 to Nov 8: Pick swap window
• Nov 1 to Nov 8: Delisted free agency period
• Nov 20-21: Telstra AFL Draft
• Nov 22: Telstra Pre-Season Draft and Rookie Draft

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• 6 Main list
• 1 Rookie list

Current Draft Picks

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• Main Draft - 12,26,73,81,99
• Rookie Draft - 3

Recent News
• Luke Edwards delisted after deciding to step away from football due to ongoing concussion symptoms

 

[TOA.]

Exact opposite actually. More I read about the more it looks like (as "experts" have been saying) that you really can throw a blanket over the top dozen or so

Eg Tauru ranked at 11 on the ABC rankings, tipped to go at 2 by ESPN, Lalor ranked at 6 by ABC, tipped to go 1 by ESPN, Jagga Smith ranked 3rd by ABC, tipped to go 8 by ESPN

But none of those guys will make it to our pick so yes trading back may have been ok but only if it was to 8-10 or similar. We are not picking in a range where these guys will go. In fact, the top dozen you are speaking of will almost certainly be gone.

Like I said when I was worried about Clarke's comments about Baker before trade week. I would be more than happy to be proven wrong.

 

[bzparkes]

sure, but the moral of the story is the same: Don't piss #3 up the wall.

Plenty of other clubs have 'pissed' top 5 picks up the wall just by using it in the draft.

I daresay skipping a top 5 pick in this draft isn't going to make much of a different to the club's future fortunes.

Stabilising the bottom of the list will go a long way to improving performance, which in turn will help with player retention and it'll snowball from there.

I'd much prefer to have kept pick 3 obviously, though it's not like there's many high production mids in this draft, outside of Smith(queries over size at AFL level) and Ashcroft(unavailable).

I think the hysterics over the trade are a bit much. I understand the sugar-hit of using a top pick but with opinions varying so much on who the top picks are, I think it's not the end of the world to have traded back in this particular draft and use it as a reset point to cull the deadwood from the list and raise the floor.

It's been an unpopular strategy obviously, but I can understand the logic behind it.

 

[maxrm]

But inside that 15, there are tiers.

Tier 1: FOS, Smith, Lalor, Draper
Tier 2: Langford, Smillie, Reid
Tier 3: Tauru, Travaglia, Armstrong, Lindsey, Allan

Tauru might go early because North need KPP. But don't be thinking that all those prospects are on the same level.

In a previous post of mine I outlined where I see the tiers at, although I can't find that post anymore.

Here's my current take:

Tier 1: Lalor, FOS
Tier 2: Langford, Draper, Smith, Tauru, Smillie
Tier 3: Armstrong, Travaglia, Allan, Lindsay, Reid

Lalor is firming for pick #1 and FOS is never ranked lower than the top few selections.
Langford, Draper and Smith are genuinely pick #1 contenders but could slide a little, just not to us. Tauru and Smillie have a wide range but also appear extremely unlikely to slide to our selection.
But tier 4 is where we'll be hoping things fall our way. Happy with any of them aside from Armstrong due purely to list needs. If he is the one that slips through, then I say we try to strike a deal with Sydney for 19 and 22, but I doubt that will be necessary.

 

[Keys]

So you'd be happy taking Travaglia over FOS, Lalor, Draper? I wouldn't have thought so.

I’d have Smith, Draper, O’Sullivan over Travaglia (or more likely Lindsay/Allan) every day

But it’s not quite as straightforward a comparison as that

For a start, pick 3 was used to get not just pick 12 but also Baker. The trade also brought in Owies who it should be said doesn’t really move the needle significantly but he was part of it

Trading pick 3 also meant we retain the Hawthorn F1 so there’s that to consider also

Broad brush I’d rather we still had 3, or at least a pick inside the top 6. Bigger picture it’s more nuanced and will take 2-3 years to get a fuller picture of whether we did the right thing

 

[Obeanie1]

Can't believe he has us taking Lindsay and not Allen(gone a pick before anyway) before going on to say that WCE may not even be targeting Allen to begin with.

As many have posted Ginbey and AllAn are very similar types.

Allan's kicking efficiency and accumulation are the questions.

Lindsay is a very good kick and accumulates.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if we have two or three prospects ranked higher around pick 12.

 

[Elite Pete]

Yes but he left out a lot of context.

Most teams don't end up trading for A-graders and top picks don't generally leave the club they were drafted too, unless it's toward the twilight of their career, or they failed to live up to expectations and need a fresh start.

Nearly all trades and FA moves are to fill list needs with role players.

Plus his example of Brownlow and Coach award, while majority were at their club that drafted them, they weren’t necessarily high end picks. We will take a decree by amount of picks at the draft/rookie draft

 

[amazingjoshy]

Plus his example of Brownlow and Coach award, while majority were at their club that drafted them, they weren’t necessarily high end picks. We will take a decree by amount of picks at the draft/rookie draft

For the record the club B&Fs

Adelaide: Dawson and Keays- traded in and rookie draft
Brisbane: Neale then Zorko -traded in and a late pick
Carlton: Cripps then Newman-pick 13 and a trade
Collingwood: Daicos then Cameron-pick 4 and a trade in
Ess: Merrett then Martin- pick 26 and an SSP
Freo: Serong then Brayshaw- pick 8 and pick 2
Geel: Holmes then Guthrie-pick 20 and rookie draft
GC: Collins into Uwland-mature age concession pick and rookie draft
GWS: Hogan into Green/Whitfield-traded in and picks 10&1
Hawks: Newcombe then Moore-mid season pick and pick 67
Melb: Viney into Gawn-picks 26&34
Nth: LDU then Xerri-picks 4&72
Port: Butters then JHF-pick 12 and a trade in
Rich: Rioli then Vlastuin-picks 15&9
StK: Wilkie into Sinclair-both rookie draft picks
Syd: Heeney then Gulden-picks 18&32
WC: Gov then Yeo-rookie draft and trade in
WB: Bont then Treloar/Dale-pick 4 and a traded in player and a pick 45

 

[amazingjoshy]

So you'd be happy taking Travaglia over FOS, Lalor, Draper? I wouldn't have thought so.

I haven't seen enough of any of them to make that call

 

[Eastcoasteagle]

2024 AFL Phantom Draft: Every pick in the first two rounds

Jasper Chellappah has released his latest two-round AFL Phantom Draft for 2024, with the first of a big two-night event now just two weeks away. Who is your club looking to pick with its early selections?

www.espn.com.au

I like Ough, but I definitely take Moraes or Oliver first.

 

[Grahame]

Broad brush I’d rather we still had 3, or at least a pick inside the top 6. Bigger picture it’s more nuanced and will take 2-3 years to get a fuller picture of whether we did the right thing

That’s admirable but hopeful. This board waaaay too often is just black and white melting.

As you say the convenient notion ‘we traded Baker for three’. It’s almost Trumpian at times.

 

[Ruben Grubarb]

I haven't seen enough of any of them to make that call

There's a definite difference in current ability and future potential. None of know who are going to end up studs and spuds, but your chances are better with FOS, Lalor, Smith, Draper.

 

[Ruben Grubarb]

There are certain players that could go top 3, or could easily be there at our pick

Yeah, Nah.

Tauru is the only one and that's because North need to start developing KPPs.

FOS, Smith, Lalor, Draper will get nowhere near 12. Allan, TT, Lindsay will go nowhere near top 3.

 

[TerryFilk]

Lindsay, Reid and Allan all on the board out our pick, they chose Allan for us (what a surprise), Port take Reid and Fremantle get Lindsay.

Would make me sick if that eventuated, lol.

 

[Mattman93]

I wonder how much of that ESPN phantom is based on solid info as opposed to just rankings. Datolli to Sydney for example feels extremely on-brand. Ditto WB and Hannaford (sigh).

If things pan out the way it's projecting I'm warming to the idea of taking a risk on Hotton. And then find a way to get Urquhart later - double down on a draft of elite hands and awful foot skills.

 

[amazingjoshy]

There's a definite difference in current ability and future potential. None of know who are going to end up studs and spuds, but your chances are better with FOS, Lalor, Smith, Draper.

Maybe so I just don't think it's worth the angst some seem to be having over it, especially before we even know who is drafted where in what is, from all reports, a very even draft

And as Keys said, we also now have other assets from the pick 3 split that we wouldnt have otherwise. That can't be ignored

It's really whoever goes at pick 3 vs whoever goes at 12, plus Baker, plus Owies, plus Hawks F1

Noone will know the ultimate result for years

 

[Ruben Grubarb]

Stabilising the bottom of the list will go a long way to improving performance, which in turn will help with player retention and it'll snowball from there.

Sorry, but that's amateur hour. In all sports from under 8s to professional, it's generally one team's top few players versus the other team's top players. there are variations, but this is typically how sport works.

No point building your fringe if your top players can't compete. Furthermore, your fringe is much harder to develop when your top end isn't very good. Put the exact same player into both a bottom 4 side and a top 4 side, they will perform much better in the top 4 side.

You need to focus on finding your top end. These players are limited and hard to find. Your bottom 6 is relatively easy to find. Most of them are guys who are able to play to potential because they're in a good team.

 

[Ruben Grubarb]

Maybe so I just don't think it's worth the angst some seem to be having over it, especially before we even know who is drafted where in what is, from all reports, a very even draft

And as Keys said, we also now have other assets from the pick 3 split that we wouldnt have otherwise. That can't be ignored

It's really whoever goes at pick 3 vs whoever goes at 12, plus Baker, plus Owies, plus Hawks F1

Noone will know the ultimate result for years

We don't know the result, we just know it's a low percentage play.

 

[Obeanie1]

Sure, but pretty much all of them will be gone by pick 14 or 15 depending on if Lombard or Kako are bid on before our pick. So we miss out on the best talent.

When the academy kids go has no affect at all on what talent we miss out on.

We never had access to them.

 

[We_The_West]

I accept that there were more final decision makers than Clarke but what you need to accept is that we were backed into a corner when Clarke ALONE promised Richmond that pick for Baker.

Don Pyke didn’t promise that pick, nor did our recruiters or Gavin Bell. It was Clarke and only Clarke. He is incompetent and a terrible representative for the club in negotiations.

we need to draft this guys just on name alone.

"wes walley"

View attachment 2159197

Wes Walley and Malakai Champion tearing up the forward 50 for the next decade….

Mathew Clarke masterpiece?

 

[flamingEMBERS]

Geelong will recruit him for chips and make him into a gun player again

Geelong will “save him”

 

[Byron_Clanger]

Lindsay, Reid and Allan all on the board out our pick, they chose Allan for us (what a surprise), Port take Reid and Fremantle get Lindsay.

Would make me sick if that eventuated, lol.

Of course. We're never gonna beat the 'Simps for the local product' allegations.

 

[Bleedblueandgold]

When the academy kids go has no affect at all on what talent we miss out on.

We never had access to them.

Of course it doesn't, I was just saying that we don't know what pick it will be, but all the best talent will still be gone by our pick.

 

[flamingEMBERS]

As many have posted Ginbey and AllAn are very similar types.

Allan's kicking efficiency and accumulation are the questions.

Lindsay is a very good kick and accumulates.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if we have two or three prospects ranked higher around pick 12.

All this linking to top local talent, means we can better disguise who we really want

 

[ToastieBoy18]

Sorry, but that's amateur hour. In all sports from under 8s to professional, it's generally one team's top few players versus the other team's top players. there are variations, but this is typically how sport works.

No point building your fringe if your top players can't compete. Furthermore, your fringe is much harder to develop when your top end isn't very good. Put the exact same player into both a bottom 4 side and a top 4 side, they will perform much better in the top 4 side.

You need to focus on finding your top end. These players are limited and hard to find. Your bottom 6 is relatively easy to find. Most of them are guys who are able to play to potential because they're in a good team.

What did Hawthorn do last off season which propelled them from 16th to 6th?

Added Dambrosio, Chol, Gunston, Ginnivan, as well as Watson.

We finished 16th this year, have added Baker, Graham, Owies (potentially another one or 2 via DFA) + pick 12.

I would say our Ins are equal too, if not better than Hawthorns. Now this isn’t to say that I expect us to to move from 16th to 8th, or that we did the right thing by trading pick 3 out, but there are certainly different methods to Rebuilding a list.

 

[Obeanie1]

All this linking to top local talent, means we can better disguise who we really want

It gets tiresome when the Eastern commentators focus 98% of their discussion on which WA player we will draft.

Even when higher ranked players are available at our pick.

Allan now ranked around 14 or 15. What a surprise.

If we had pick 10 he'd be ranked at 10.