Toast The anti-Hinkleyball

[Del165198]

Ok so after a decade, we have a pretty rough idea of what Hinkleyball entails, so i'll just summarise a few dot points

• inefficiency
• poor conversion
• requiring major inside 50 dominance to make up for the lack of system going forward
• choking it in big games (fri/sat night)
• choking it against big teams/weight of expectation
• goalless quarters
• bomb it long to charlie

you could do a more detailed breakdown but i'm sure we know what it looks like.

we've gone from a team relying on weight of numbers, requiring forward half dominance for long periods to gradually grind out wins, to becoming a team of absolute snipers, lasering our way through with precision kicks.

The four teams with the least amount of kicks per game are:

• west coast
• norf
• geelong
• PORT

​

• we run second last in the comp for average disposals per game, ahead of only GCS.
• we're outright last in the comp for avg marks. we don't chip it around pointlessly anymore.
• we're second last in the comp for avg hitouts. which isn't a factor of system just that until the last few weeks our ruck division has been pus and we haven't played sam hayes.
• we're the worst in the comp for free kicks given away. (mid table on frees for). balance that up and we have the second worst ledger in the comp.

so if you look at stats.. we don't get possession, we don't take marks, we give away too many frees and get flogged in the ruck.

and yet, we've won 11 in a row.

and unlike 2020 and 2021, we've beaten actual good teams. we beat st kilda when they were top of the ladder. we beat melbourne. we beat geelong. we beat the dogs when they were having a red hot crack. we've won games we all thought we would lose. we've won games under the expectation of being favourites. we've started shithouse and then run over teams. i had a good melt when we let hawthorn come back, but that side came out the next week and beat brisbane. we played ridiculous footy in the first half of that game.

i know we've all been gaslighted to buggery by the previous decade, but something has legit changed. we have multiple players who can grab the game by the scruff of the neck and turn it, not just r gray.

we were utter putrid garbage last year with basically the same list (Bar JHF, but we had amon who was near AA level in his position).

we haven't lost a single game since ken hinkley has been ejected from the coaches box to the boundary line.

the. lid. is. off.

​

 

[TazD]

Its the hope that kills you

 

[Del165198]

Its the hope that kills you

nah **** it. i'm on board. this feels different. it's been years since i've been able to enjoy wins. i haven't really felt anything approaching confidence since 2014.

 

[dirty2]

Carr-ball is working really well

But yeah... Hope is Starting to come back... The Geelong game was the first game I have been excited for for a long time.

 

[ibd77]

I'm feeling confident that we can change and adapt on the fly if the game is not going our way. Something we could never do before. Adding to that, when the game needs to be won, our work rate goes up and so does the pressure.

Also impressive is our disposal efficiency and scoring accuracy has some what improved. It feels like the Port Adelaide of old when we dominated the 80's/90's.
I think our weakness will be against teams that can expose us on the outside but as our midfield continues to develop and improve, my concerns are declining.

The players are hungry and I hope they can maintain the rage in the second half of the season as our opponents become more desperate to make the finals and make an impact.

 

[Marmozet]

I was just comparing our team to our 2014 team, and I realised how there's no Pittard's, O'Shea's, Moore's etc. in this team.

 

[edgie]

In the past, we have often won football doing the anti Hinkley - working less than the other team. Losing stats like tackles, contested possession, and inside 50. We lost when we won all the 'working hard' indicators. It seems now we have decided that should be plan A. Who would have thought.

Sent from my Nokia 7.2 using Tapatalk

 

[GremioPower]

Ok so after a decade, we have a pretty rough idea of what Hinkleyball entails, so i'll just summarise a few dot points

• inefficiency
• poor conversion
• requiring major inside 50 dominance to make up for the lack of system going forward
• choking it in big games (fri/sat night)
• choking it against big teams/weight of expectation
• goalless quarters
• bomb it long to charlie

you could do a more detailed breakdown but i'm sure we know what it looks like.

we've gone from a team relying on weight of numbers, requiring forward half dominance for long periods to gradually grind out wins, to becoming a team of absolute snipers, lasering our way through with precision kicks.

The four teams with the least amount of kicks per game are:

• west coast
• norf
• geelong
• PORT

​

• we run second last in the comp for average disposals per game, ahead of only GCS.
• we're outright last in the comp for avg marks. we don't chip it around pointlessly anymore.
• we're second last in the comp for avg hitouts. which isn't a factor of system just that until the last few weeks our ruck division has been pus and we haven't played sam hayes.
• we're the worst in the comp for free kicks given away. (mid table on frees for). balance that up and we have the second worst ledger in the comp.

so if you look at stats.. we don't get possession, we don't take marks, we give away too many frees and get flogged in the ruck.

and yet, we've won 11 in a row.

and unlike 2020 and 2021, we've beaten actual good teams. we beat st kilda when they were top of the ladder. we beat melbourne. we beat geelong. we beat the dogs when they were having a red hot crack. we've won games we all thought we would lose. we've won games under the expectation of being favourites. we've started shithouse and then run over teams. i had a good melt when we let hawthorn come back, but that side came out the next week and beat brisbane. we played ridiculous footy in the first half of that game.

i know we've all been gaslighted to buggery by the previous decade, but something has legit changed. we have multiple players who can grab the game by the scruff of the neck and turn it, not just r gray.

we were utter putrid garbage last year with basically the same list (Bar JHF, but we had amon who was near AA level in his position).

we haven't lost a single game since ken hinkley has been ejected from the coaches box to the boundary line.

the. lid. is. off.

​

Plan A: get the ball and move it straight towards the goal.

Plan B: stop the opposition, get the ball again, and move it straight towards the goal.

So far, it’s been working…

 

[PortWTF]

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

ergo work smarter, not harder.

you know Hinkley isn't leading this charge.

 

[Janus]

Inside 50s

2017 - 59.3 per game (1st)
2021 - 53.7 per game (5th)

2023 - 57.6 per game (2nd)

So the press is exactly the same as it was in 2017.

Rebound 50s

2017 - 34.4 per game (14th)
2021 - 38.9 per game (10th)

2023 - 37.1 per game (17th)

Not much different from 2017 - probably playing one more rebounding defender in the team.

Disposals

2017 - 378.8 per game (11th)
2021 - 382.4 per game (1st)

2023 - 338.7 per game (17th)

This is an adjustment, and it comes from the defensive side. 40 less possessions per game than 2017, or 10 less possessions per quarter. The difference being not hitting a dinky 20m kick out of defence but breaking lines with a 30-40m kick.

Clearances

2017 -38.7 per game (3rd)
2021 - 35.4 per game (8th)

2023 - 39.2 per game (5th)

Very similar to 2017.

Tackles Inside 50

2017 - 13.7 per game (4th)
2021 - 10.9 per game (6th)

2023 - 13.3 per game (2nd)

No change from the 2017 game style.

Contested Marks

2017 - 13.7 per game (1st)
2021 - 13.5 per game (2nd)

2023 - 10.6 per game (10th)

A symptom of moving the ball faster out of defence means there are less contested situations per game.

Marks Inside 50

2017 - 13.4 per game (3rd)
2021 - 12.0 per game (7th)

2023 - 13.4 per game (4th)

No change from the 2017 game style.

Intercepts

2017 - 73.8 per game (3rd)
2021 - 72.7 per game (2nd)

2023 - 69.6 per game (8th)

We've sacrificed better defensive positioning for faster ball movement out of defence. The reduction in intercepts per game (-4.2) means we've sacrificed pure defenders (Jonas/Byrne-Jones) for players that might not be as good defensively but are more balanced in attack (Williams/Bergman).

Meters Gained

2017 - 5785.1 per game (2nd) - 15.3m per disposal
2021 - 5834.2 per game (4th) - 15.3m per disposal

2023 - 5947.6 per game (8th) - 17.6m per disposal

Adelaide Oval is 167m in length. In 2017 and 2021, it would have taken us on average 11 disposals to traverse the ground. In 2023, it takes 9.5 - cutting out an entire line.


The 2023 game plan is literally the 2017 game plan with longer, faster ball movement out of defence. I refer you back to two posts of mine from 2017:





We now have the players who are confident in themselves to be able to execute that fast movement out of defence that we were missing in 2017. That's it.

That's all it is.

 

[Powerade 08]

Hugh Janus

 

[Enviable Tradition]

I50s raw numbers mean little.

If you can see that we are entering 50 smarter this year then all the stats in the world won't help you.

On SM-G975F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[ibd77]

I50s raw numbers mean little.

If you can see that we are entering 50 smarter this year then all the stats in the world won't help you.

On SM-G975F using BigFooty.com mobile app

Yes, we are hitting the shorter target from 30 to 50 meters better than the long bomb to the goal square. In some cases we are still going wide, but most players these days are pretty proficient in kicking the banana or check side from the boundary pretty accurately.

 

[PortWTF]

Out of all of those stats the disposals is the key one and says everything about our change of style. Defensively we are still more or less the same. But really that was never our issue, after 2014 we seemed to just have been making it up as we go along offensively. Now there is a clear offensive game plan which is to go corridor first, exit the stoppage from the front, and shorter kicks into the forward 50. Of course having the personnel to execute that plan is vital, and we seem to have those players now.

 

[Harlott]

Port’s current game plan is literally the same as many teams since 2017 but better.

 

[Windy Cindy]

nah * it. i'm on board. this feels different. it's been years since i've been able to enjoy wins. i haven't really felt anything approaching confidence since 2014.

i agree, im back watching the footy shows again & reading the footy section again, took me until the melb win.

its such a different feel, even back in the prelim years Ive always felt it wasn't quite right, hopeful but not confident, now im going to the games confident we can win.

 

[philreich]

Round 19 against Collingwood is the real litmus test. If we can make a massive statement on July 22 by putting the Pies to the sword, then for me the lid will be fully off. But in the meantime the signs are great.

 

[EskimoPAFC]

Round 19 against Collingwood is the real litmus test. If we can make a massive statement on July 22 by putting the Pies to the sword, then for me the lid will be fully off. But in the meantime the signs are great.

The lid is on for me until we are up in a grand final by 30 with 5 minutes to go.

And even then.....

 

[El_Scorcho]

We've sacrificed better defensive positioning for faster ball movement out of defence. The reduction in intercepts per game (-4.2) means we've sacrificed pure defenders (Jonas/Byrne-Jones) for players that might not be as good defensively but are more balanced in attack (Williams/Bergman).

We've been sacrificing attacking speed (and therefore scoring ability) for a defence-first mentality since 2017. If you've read much of this board over that time you're probably aware of a bit of complaining about it.

 

[Thunderer]

Carr-ball sounds so much more efficient than Hinkley-ball.

 

[Janus]

We've been sacrificing attacking speed (and therefore scoring ability) for a defence-first mentality since 2017. If you've read much of this board over that time you're probably aware of a bit of complaining about it.

Yes, but people complained as though it was Hinkley's fault that we didn't have any defenders who could kick. You work with what you have, especially when you've got other holes in the side to fix (bringing in Ryder for 2015, bringing in Dixon for 2016, bringing in Marshall, Powell-Pepper and Drew for 2017) and bear in mind that Impey (who I think can kick) went to Hawthorn at the end of 2017.

Remove players like Farrell (drafted 2017), Burton (recruited 2018), Bergman (drafted 2019), Williams (drafted 2019) and McKenzie (recruited 2017) from the current defence (I'll be generous and give you Houston because he debuted in 2017 but was recruited in 2015 as a rookie) and see who you would pick to replace them from the lists we had at the time. Then ask if those players could hit the kind of kicks that Farrell, Burton and Williams can. In 2019 Byrne-Jones showed sign that maybe he would become that kind of player but for whatever reason he's just not confident/aggressive enough.

Bonner should have been that guy but for whatever reason he just hasn't come on like we wanted him to. We played Hartlett back and he could kick long but not the same as Burton, Williams and Farrell.

Remember at the end of 2017 when Hinkley said we played the team we needed to play? This was the line up:

B: Pittard, Clurey, Bonner
HB: Byrne-Jones, Howard, Hartlett

BENCH: Houston

Only one player out of that side is still playing in the best 22 defence for Port Adelaide, and he was on the bench. Two players if you count Bonner (who was the sub against Geelong).

 

[El_Scorcho]

Yes, but people complained as though it was Hinkley's fault that we didn't have any defenders who could kick. You work with what you have, especially when you've got other holes in the side to fix (bringing in Ryder for 2015, bringing in Dixon for 2016, bringing in Marshall, Powell-Pepper and Drew for 2017) and bear in mind that Impey (who I think can kick) went to Hawthorn at the end of 2017.

Remove players like Farrell (drafted 2017), Burton (recruited 2018), Bergman (drafted 2019), Williams (drafted 2019) and McKenzie (recruited 2017) from the current defence (I'll be generous and give you Houston because he debuted in 2017 but was recruited in 2015 as a rookie) and see who you would pick to replace them from the lists we had at the time. Then ask if those players could hit the kind of kicks that Farrell, Burton and Williams can. In 2019 Byrne-Jones showed sign that maybe he would become that kind of player but for whatever reason he's just not confident/aggressive enough.

Bonner should have been that guy but for whatever reason he just hasn't come on like we wanted him to. We played Hartlett back and he could kick long but not the same as Burton, Williams and Farrell.

Remember at the end of 2017 when Hinkley said we played the team we needed to play? This was the line up:

B: Pittard, Clurey, Bonner
HB: Byrne-Jones, Howard, Hartlett

BENCH: Houston

Only one player out of that side is still playing in the best 22 defence for Port Adelaide, and he was on the bench. Two players if you count Bonner (who was the sub against Geelong).

2017 was Hinkley's 5th season and he hadn't put any effort into recruiting or developing defenders who could kick. We had the likes of Broadbent and Hartlett who could kick well enough but we didn't make any attempt to launch scores through our better kicks. We had other quality kicks in the side who we didn't move to defence despite teams all over the league doing it.

All the guys who can kick playing defence for us have been on the list for several years, but we only started prioritising good skills in defence in round 4 2023.

The idea that Hinkley wanted the current setup the whole time is laughable. Maybe you wanted this setup, you posted lots about needing quick ball movement and good ball users. But Hinkley made no effort to achieve it until he was facing oblivion and handed the reins to his assistants. It's the antithesis of his defence first philosophy.

 

[Peninsula Boy]

We've been sacrificing attacking speed (and therefore scoring ability) for a defence-first mentality since 2017. If you've read much of this board over that time you're probably aware of a bit of complaining about it.

100%.

You could say we were very negative in the backline. We preferred to nullify the contest rather than win the contest and restart with a stoppage. It meant there was little to no chance of attacking from defence. I still remember numerous spoils where marks could have been taken because the mindset was so negative. The double fists into the third row use to kill me.

When you give your defenders a chance to win contests, they gain confidence and can now beat their opponent and set up scoring involvements.

Our team defence is still good like before this year but we have a whole heap of really good individual defenders who have matured quickly into the system.

I was thinking today, when was the last time we depended on Aliir to intercept the game out of defence for us this year. He's still a very good player but we have a whole backline of interceptors now.

 

[Del165198]

Janus: hinkley's masterplan is this, it will happen any minute now... (For a decade)

Janus: hinkley's masterplan was actually this, and just as I foretold it has come to pass! I am very intelligent and not a deranged weirdo.