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AFLW 2024 - Round 8 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
The Ask a No Passengers Member a Question Thread
- Thread starter happy_eagle
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Trading out Bradshaw if 2+ weeks and upgrading Ellis or Myers...
Who do you think i should get? I've got 99k in the bank...
I was thinking of going Bradshaw to Andrew Mcleod (is too cheap!)
and upgrade Ellis to anyone or Myers to >328k
Options for Myers are King, Goddard, Burgoyne, Bock, Kennely...
what are your thoughts lads?
Who do you think i should get? I've got 99k in the bank...
I was thinking of going Bradshaw to Andrew Mcleod (is too cheap!)
and upgrade Ellis to anyone or Myers to >328k
Options for Myers are King, Goddard, Burgoyne, Bock, Kennely...
what are your thoughts lads?
- Mar 13, 2006
- 4,162
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Not a member, but I'm pretty sure I'm in your premium league so here's my 2 cents.
If you get Mcleod for Bradshaw I reckon you should trade Ellis for the best back you can get and hold on to Myers cause I reckon he could pull some handy scores. To me Ellis always looks like he's on the verge of getting dropped.
Looking at going one fo Pav, Corey, Cross, Cox, J Brown, Mitchell for captain but probably gonna go Dane Swan, although he did have a poor game last week and rumor is he is sick? He does have a good history against he blues but do you think he might get tagged out of it?
That was me. It was either Fisher or Milburn in that week, and I got the wrong damned Fisher.
I'm still kicking myself because both Fisher and Milburn were 310k at the time and pretty much the only well-priced and consistent back options then, or now.
I also lost by 35 points that week and I believe Sam outscored Leigh by 36 points. You can't make this stuff up. I traded out Leigh Fisher for Drummond in a high-risk move and I've had nothing from there either.
McLeod's BE is low this week but I think you're better off leaving him at least for another week. You never know, he could simply end up with 60s every week hereon and that wouldn't be worth the trade even if it is theoretically fitting of his price. He's not going to rise that much that quickly, and leaving another week leaves you more time to assess this tangled mess that is the backs.
But if you must trade out due to Bradshaw, I think for that price Fisher is still your bet. Bock is having an outstanding year but I'm not quite sold on his DT average for the rest of the year.
Jimmza Oner
Rookie
Does anybody noe chris mastens BE this weekend cus im lookin to upgrade him to lenny hayes and i need him to hopefully stay at the same price or even go up in price cus looks lik lenny mite drop in price in the next week or so
Does anybody noe chris mastens BE this weekend cus im lookin to upgrade him to lenny hayes and i need him to hopefully stay at the same price or even go up in price cus looks lik lenny mite drop in price in the next week or so
Once again http://www.xalia.com.au/TooSerious.php
There should be no reason to ask about break evens, it just shows that you're lazy and incompetent.
Just a suggestion for the No Passengers crew (if it is appropriate in this thread): I note in the Week 12 discussion that you have been considering whether the scores of different players are correlated. I actually tried to do this when I was picking up Peter Burgoyne, to see if his score was correlated with Chornes.
I was wondering whether it might be helpful to look at scores between particular players over periods longer than just this season. If so, it might be helpful to use a scatter graph, and to actually report some measure of correlation (e.g. Excel can display R squared when adding a trendline) to compare between different sets of players.
I was wondering whether it might be helpful to look at scores between particular players over periods longer than just this season. If so, it might be helpful to use a scatter graph, and to actually report some measure of correlation (e.g. Excel can display R squared when adding a trendline) to compare between different sets of players.
Yep, it would, except for the cases where they are playing different roles (ie Priddis will look different in the absence of Judd, or Judd & Kerr, or BJ and Murphy, etc). But a scatter graph showing true correlations might show some interesting results! So, what did you come up with re Cornes and Burgoyne?
...Wondering if i should hold off or go for broke on one of these trades!
is Kelly's time up, 89, 81 in the last 2 weeks but previous to that 60, 57...so he hasn't even looked like cracking the tone for 4 weeks..can afford, Cornes, S.Thompson, G. ablett, Cross and still have 100k in the bank..... or do i leave kelly as my 6th midfielder and trade out Palmer...The question there is..who will score more over the remainder of the year?
or do i upgrade and set my forward line by trading tredrea to pavlich...but i can do that in a couple of weeks if i want.......a big decision this week...is it neccessary to even trade???
Cheers blokes!
is Kelly's time up, 89, 81 in the last 2 weeks but previous to that 60, 57...so he hasn't even looked like cracking the tone for 4 weeks..can afford, Cornes, S.Thompson, G. ablett, Cross and still have 100k in the bank..... or do i leave kelly as my 6th midfielder and trade out Palmer...The question there is..who will score more over the remainder of the year?
or do i upgrade and set my forward line by trading tredrea to pavlich...but i can do that in a couple of weeks if i want.......a big decision this week...is it neccessary to even trade???
Cheers blokes!
Hey dudes, would love some expert opinions.
I have 11 trades left and 69,100 bucks left
Shaw Birchall Chornes Roughead
Kennelly Wona Ibbo (Bradshaw, Taylor)
Kornes Stevens Palmer
Judd Dal Santo Johnstone (Bird, Cotchin)
Cox, Simmonds (Kruz, Hampson)
Franklin Pav Porplyzia Brown (Tippet, Gamble)
Aker Chapman Rioli
I'm coming 700th ish, but to make any in road on the leaders, i need to make a move pretty soon..
Bird>>> Armfield is pretty much locked in, which would leave me 170,200ish left in the kitty..
Obviously i need Ablett, and another gun to strengthen the mids..
I also want to wait for Ottens in 3 weeks, which rules out simmonds for upgrade..
Any thoughts about the team, who should be chopped??
Cheers
I have 11 trades left and 69,100 bucks left
Shaw Birchall Chornes Roughead
Kennelly Wona Ibbo (Bradshaw, Taylor)
Kornes Stevens Palmer
Judd Dal Santo Johnstone (Bird, Cotchin)
Cox, Simmonds (Kruz, Hampson)
Franklin Pav Porplyzia Brown (Tippet, Gamble)
Aker Chapman Rioli
I'm coming 700th ish, but to make any in road on the leaders, i need to make a move pretty soon..
Bird>>> Armfield is pretty much locked in, which would leave me 170,200ish left in the kitty..
Obviously i need Ablett, and another gun to strengthen the mids..
I also want to wait for Ottens in 3 weeks, which rules out simmonds for upgrade..
Any thoughts about the team, who should be chopped??
Cheers
Mickeybee,
Look at the ones you have to upgrade first. One problem is that you have a bunch of near keepers (Roughead, Kennelly, Bradshaw) in your backline who ultimately are probably not good enough. At least one of them has to go, probably two, in addition to Wona and perhaps Ibbo. Have you considered Bradshaw to Urquhart? Gives you money, future profit, a playing emergency and gets rid of one of your backline problems.
Leaves you enough money to have a few strong upgrades in these coming weeks. Once that money’s gone you can downgrade one of Urquhart, Bird, Kruz or Tippett to provide more upgrade money. The advantage of downgrading Bradshaw (who's useless on the bench, whose fitness is now in doubt and whose price will fall STEEPLY in the coming weeks) is that you get immediate cash plus you're not trading out Bird yet. For all you know Urquhart or Kruz might overtake Bird in price and be a better downgrade option.
I’d look at going Rioli --> forward gun (Didak, Gia) this week. It’ll complete your forward line and give you an easy 30ppg improvement. Didak is my pick even though he's very pricey.
Over the following weeks you’ll want to look at form and upgrade (in no particular order—just keep an eye on BEs) Roughead, Kennelly, Wona, Ibbo, Palmer (two weeks he’ll be ripe), Dal Santo, Johnstone (one-two weeks he’ll be ripe-slight chance he may be a keeper). It may well be that two of those players I’ve listed perform well enough to warrant keeping in your final side.
You should ideally only need three more downgrades (Bradshaw, then two of those mentioned), staggered throughout your trading, to fit in all your upgrades. Three downgrades leaves you six or seven upgrades plus a couple of sideways (injury/form) trades. You won’t be able to upgrade all those I mentioned but you probably won’t need to.
Look at the ones you have to upgrade first. One problem is that you have a bunch of near keepers (Roughead, Kennelly, Bradshaw) in your backline who ultimately are probably not good enough. At least one of them has to go, probably two, in addition to Wona and perhaps Ibbo. Have you considered Bradshaw to Urquhart? Gives you money, future profit, a playing emergency and gets rid of one of your backline problems.
Leaves you enough money to have a few strong upgrades in these coming weeks. Once that money’s gone you can downgrade one of Urquhart, Bird, Kruz or Tippett to provide more upgrade money. The advantage of downgrading Bradshaw (who's useless on the bench, whose fitness is now in doubt and whose price will fall STEEPLY in the coming weeks) is that you get immediate cash plus you're not trading out Bird yet. For all you know Urquhart or Kruz might overtake Bird in price and be a better downgrade option.
I’d look at going Rioli --> forward gun (Didak, Gia) this week. It’ll complete your forward line and give you an easy 30ppg improvement. Didak is my pick even though he's very pricey.
Over the following weeks you’ll want to look at form and upgrade (in no particular order—just keep an eye on BEs) Roughead, Kennelly, Wona, Ibbo, Palmer (two weeks he’ll be ripe), Dal Santo, Johnstone (one-two weeks he’ll be ripe-slight chance he may be a keeper). It may well be that two of those players I’ve listed perform well enough to warrant keeping in your final side.
You should ideally only need three more downgrades (Bradshaw, then two of those mentioned), staggered throughout your trading, to fit in all your upgrades. Three downgrades leaves you six or seven upgrades plus a couple of sideways (injury/form) trades. You won’t be able to upgrade all those I mentioned but you probably won’t need to.
hello,
i am going for an overall position rather than league win. i have 6 trades left and 220k in bank. need to upgrade rioli and myers.
wondering if it is bad to upgrade rioli to bjohnson this week?
i am going for an overall position rather than league win. i have 6 trades left and 220k in bank. need to upgrade rioli and myers.
wondering if it is bad to upgrade rioli to bjohnson this week?
Well, I ran into a number of issues, which I will explain in the following post, and which is why I used the word "tried"
The short answer is that if I take the scores over their careers (but remove scores where either player did not play, as explained below), then I get a positive relationship, but with a slope of only 0.0978 (nearly horizontal) and an R squared of 0.0171.
If I take the scores since 2007 (explained below), I also get a positive relationship, with a slope of 0.2174 and an R square of 0.070.
I can show the scatter graphs if you are interested, but am not exactly sure where to upload them to.
Sorry for the essay, but this explains my methodology and results:
The first issue was that I had to remove all of the scores where one player played and the other did not, which was easy enough. But it also leads to the question of whether a player's score should be removed prior to missing a game, because they got injured during the game previously (e.g. Cornes’ score of 14 in Rd 13, 2006, before missing two games).
Then I had to determine the period over which I should take the observations. Cornes played his first games in 1999, but his season average didn't get above 80 until 2003 (81.8, using FinalSiren's stats) or above 90 until 2005 (96.3). So, it could be argued that his form prior to either of those years was not representative of his current form. By contrast, Burgoyne only played 10 games in 2006, and had an uncharacteristically low average (67.5), which was likely injury-affected. In the end, taking the scores since 2007 produced the better result, but as it only represents 33 observations, it is not as comprehensive as I originally hoped.
For those that aren’t familiar with the concept, an R squared of 0.070 means that only 7% of Burgoyne’s score can be explained by the variation in The Chad’s. I expected a positive relationship for obvious reasons, i.e. if one has a good game, it should be more likely that the other had a good game.
It’s difficult to know how close a relationship this represents, without comparing it with other pairs of players, i.e. given the many different factors that can affect a player’s score (e.g. form, role, opponent etc.). While it is not a “good” result in that their scores do not appear to be closely correlated, it is a good result if you are concerned (as I was) about how having both players in your backline might affect your score when one of them doesn’t score so well.
Another avenue of research would be to consider how Port Adelaide’s performance affects a particular player’s score.
The first issue was that I had to remove all of the scores where one player played and the other did not, which was easy enough. But it also leads to the question of whether a player's score should be removed prior to missing a game, because they got injured during the game previously (e.g. Cornes’ score of 14 in Rd 13, 2006, before missing two games).
Then I had to determine the period over which I should take the observations. Cornes played his first games in 1999, but his season average didn't get above 80 until 2003 (81.8, using FinalSiren's stats) or above 90 until 2005 (96.3). So, it could be argued that his form prior to either of those years was not representative of his current form. By contrast, Burgoyne only played 10 games in 2006, and had an uncharacteristically low average (67.5), which was likely injury-affected. In the end, taking the scores since 2007 produced the better result, but as it only represents 33 observations, it is not as comprehensive as I originally hoped.
For those that aren’t familiar with the concept, an R squared of 0.070 means that only 7% of Burgoyne’s score can be explained by the variation in The Chad’s. I expected a positive relationship for obvious reasons, i.e. if one has a good game, it should be more likely that the other had a good game.
It’s difficult to know how close a relationship this represents, without comparing it with other pairs of players, i.e. given the many different factors that can affect a player’s score (e.g. form, role, opponent etc.). While it is not a “good” result in that their scores do not appear to be closely correlated, it is a good result if you are concerned (as I was) about how having both players in your backline might affect your score when one of them doesn’t score so well.
Another avenue of research would be to consider how Port Adelaide’s performance affects a particular player’s score.
I forgot to mention, the results can also be improved by removing outliers, e.g. removing Chad's 109 v Burgoyne's 37 in Rd 9, 2007, "improves" the relationship to an R squared of 0.0985. It probably depends on your perspective as to whether that is appropriate or not: on one hand, you might be removing an uncharacteristically low score due to either injury, form or getting tagged; on the other hand, you could just be taking out results that belong in the relationship.
DIG
Brownlow Medallist
There's been so many late withdrawals this weekend. Any data on which teams are the worst culprits this year? Might help show which clubs can be least trusted with pre-lockout selections.
This is a interesting way of looking at it - correlating performances that show high R squared values irrespective of team win/loss would be useful in draft selection! As you would need to do a lot of analysis within the team to get meaningful results though. Up for it?
The Geelong mids (Ablett, Bartel, Corey) would be a good example of this - at surface value there appears to be an apparent inverse relationship between Ablett and Corey this year, but is it just noise or a real pattern?
This is a great point too - sorry to say I don't know where the data would be, but I wish I did. Anyone else got it or know where to get it?
I can't say that I am
It's a pretty simple statistical analysis that anyone can do, and it does have quite a few limitations. I mentioned it originally because I thought using R2 as a quantitative measure for comparison might be preferable to eyeballing graphs.Below are some results for performances since 2007 (to improve the sample size), with rounds removed where one player did not play:
Chad v Burgoyne (sample = 33)
Burgoyne's score = 65.68 + (0.22 x Chad's score)
R2 = 0.070
Ablett v Corey (sample = 36)
Corey = 125.78 - (0.21 x Ablett)
R2 = 0.040
Corey v Bartel (sample = 35)
Bartel = 105.29 + (0.05 x Corey)
R2 = 0.002
Conclusion: (1) There is a positive relationship for Chad v Burgoyne, which also had the closest correlation. (2) There is an inverse relationship between Ablett and Corey, but the correlation is not as good. (3) There doesn't appear to be any relationship between Corey and Bartel - it was not positive or negative, and the correlation was the worst.
OO74812
Debutant
Who is the best midfielder to downgrade to? Hinkley, Eddy or Grimes?
Who do you think? Why?
- Jul 24, 2006
- 1,850
- 19
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- North Melbourne
- Other Teams
- Melbourne Storm
Best back combo I can get for 670k?
I was thinkin Mackie and one of Hargrave/Drummond/McPhee/Gilbee
but I don't really know
I could get Bowden and Guerra/Waite.
Really need a second view on this.
I was thinkin Mackie and one of Hargrave/Drummond/McPhee/Gilbee
but I don't really know
I could get Bowden and Guerra/Waite.
Really need a second view on this.
OO74812
Debutant
I have absolutely no idea, tempted to go Eddy coz he is playing at the moment but Hinkley has already played two games and got injured which suggests they want him in the team but the only reason he isn't is coz he is injured, and I hear grimes is pretty sure to play towards the end of the season. Why? Who would you go?
I will not make the decision for you, and I don't think any other NP are going to either. Minimum effort, maximum gain, zero responsibility on your behalf. If you want someone to give you the answer, post your question on the main thread. You should get plenty of answers. If you want someone to help you make the decision all by yourself, read on.
Consider things like who are they likely to replace in the side? Is there anyone likely to threaten their spot? What do you want to do with the cash? Is that reason good enough to burn a trade (2 in reality)? Are there any other (greater) risks in your side? Do you have other options in the event of an injury? Do you need to go all the way to a questionable rookie to find a player to suit your needs? Are there any other players on the horizon? Would it be better to wait a week or 2? Do you need to do it or do you want to do it? There is a big difference.
I think if you can answer all of those questions you will probably have the answer you are looking for. It might not be right, but you can mark it down to experience and do better next time.
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