Analysis The Clarkson Rebuild Model - A Reason For Optimism

[QuietB]

Are the kids on the list good enough for a rebuild on the run? I'm looking at TOB, Brand, Willsmore, Hardwick, Surman, Heatherley

There are only so many FAs you can target and squeeze in a salary cap. Eventually you need to replenish the list with quality talent from the draft, and after prolonged success, access to talent via draft just isn't as easily available.

I'm very keen to see how this plays out. But we may be on the road to mediocrity by trying this short cut, rather than just biting the bullet and getting some quality talent in via top 10 draft picks.

And this is why I think we need to trade some pieces out. We have way too much forward talent. Some of that talent could be used to land the high picks the Hawks need to rebuild other areas.

I know none likes doing that but the alternative is getting lost in the middle.

And if anyone needs proof look at Geelong. They have always been 3-4 years ahead of the Hawks. So what they are now will be the Hawks in 3-4 years if we continue this path and I don't see the Cats as a legitimate threat.

 

[HR Roughnstuf]

When Clarko arrived Croad was gone and Clarko sent Hay, Thompson & Rawlings on their way for high draft picks that were critical to his rebuild.

So my question is will Clarkson blow this list up to achieve the same goal?

There are certainly pieces with a lot of value that could be traded. Without naming names, but Hawthorn clearly have too many forwards highlighted by the fact that two of the best from last year cannot even find a forward spot. One is on the wing completely under-utilised and the other is across half back.

So if this year goes bad will Clarko go full rebuild again?

Different situation and AFL environment for mine. FA has changed a lot of things with the ability to bring in talent without sacrificing draft picks or quality players.

I was so relieved when Clarko brought in the broom, those players mentioned had always had potential but had never delivered on it and after making a prelim in 2001 had done SFA since.

 

[MrPremiership]

And this is why I think we need to trade some pieces out. We have way too much forward talent. Some of that talent could be used to land the high picks the Hawks need to rebuild other areas.

I know none likes doing that but the alternative is getting lost in the middle.

And if anyone needs proof look at Geelong. They have always been 3-4 years ahead of the Hawks. So what they are now will be the Hawks in 3-4 years if we continue this path and I don't see the Cats as a legitimate threat.

Don't think Sicily, TOB, Schoe are going to get a first rounder......so what other forward talent would you trade out?

 

[Ned Ryerson]

And this is why I think we need to trade some pieces out. We have way too much forward talent. Some of that talent could be used to land the high picks the Hawks need to rebuild other areas.

I know none likes doing that but the alternative is getting lost in the middle.

And if anyone needs proof look at Geelong. They have always been 3-4 years ahead of the Hawks. So what they are now will be the Hawks in 3-4 years if we continue this path and I don't see the Cats as a legitimate threat.

There is a school of thought that you always draft the best available player, not the best player you need at a certain pick. While it has some validity (and disastrous examples of going against it like when Portland drafted Sam Bowie instead of Michael Jordan in the NBA because they already had someone at Jordan's position) I was often slightly perplexed why we kept draft small-forward type players so often when we probably needed to restock a big sized defender or two. As it stands, we have tried to turn so many forwards into defenders (Brand, O'Brien, Schoey, Burton, Sicily) but when we had chances to draft defensive prospects like Kieran Collins we overlooked him. Now - our recruitment team have enough runs on the board for us to give them a fair bit of slack here - and maybe Collins showed deficiencies that were right to pass on (and he isn't setting the world on fire at VFL level) but it does seem odd that we have gone for so many of the Hardwick-type in past years when drafting players.

 

[HR Roughnstuf]

* "When they rebound as quickly as they did and we were out of position as much as we were then you're always going to look slow."
- The phrase "out of position" leads me to believe that according to plan players should have been someplace other than where they were when Essendon rebounded, the implication being that the right positioning would have tempered Essendon's effectiveness. Mentioning the speed of the Essendon rebound leads me to think that perhaps we were over committed offensively and didn't have the time to set up the defense as a result. Some coaching strategising needed here because this is always a judgement on balance. Perhaps more effective finishing would have put Essendon under more pressure and limited the freedom they had to play loose and fast. Or at least that's the thinking.

The game plan is about retaining possession through effective disposals. If the ball is turned over you get burned and that happened time and again on Saturday night.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Don't think Sicily, TOB, Schoe are going to get a first rounder......so what other forward talent would you trade out?

Good point - we have very little trade bait in our second-third tier players.

 

[HR Roughnstuf]

Don't think Sicily, TOB, Schoe are going to get a first rounder......so what other forward talent would you trade out?

I assume he was meaning one of Breust, Poppy or Gunston.

 

[QuietB]

Don't think Sicily, TOB, Schoe are going to get a first rounder......so what other forward talent would you trade out?

If you want to make an omelette ..........

 

[Ned Ryerson]

I assume he was meaning one of Breust, Poppy or Gunston.

Poppy is 30 at season's end - so won't attract much currency on the trade table. Trading Gunston or Breust would be suicidal.

 

[HR Roughnstuf]

Poppy is 30 at season's end - so won't attract much currency on the trade table. Trading Gunston or Breust would be suicidal.

I think the point he is making is that we are stacked with talent at that particular end of the ground but not at others. Personally, I would also be against trading any of those players but if they need more talented mids and backs how do you get them without giving up something of value?

 

[Ned Ryerson]

I think the point he is making is that we are stacked with talent at that particular end of the ground but not at others. Personally, I would also be against trading any of those players but if they need more talented mids and backs how do you get them without giving up something of value?

It is a valid point - one which I agreed with a few posts before this (having a glut of small-medium forwards). I don't think the solution lies with trading away our best ones though.

 

[OzJohnnie]

I think the point he is making is that we are stacked with talent at that particular end of the ground but not at others. Personally, I would also be against trading any of those players but if they need more talented mids and backs how do you get them without giving up something of value?

It would break my heart to trade Gunners. Trading Croad seemed like the meanest thing anyone could do. Until the prospect of Gunners was put before me.

I'd rather they start spraying chicken blood about the room in dark-magic voodoo rituals before Gunners is traded out.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

It would break my heart to trade Gunners. Trading Croad seemed like the meanest thing anyone could do. Until the prospect of Gunners was put before me.

I'd rather they start spraying chicken blood about the room in dark-magic voodoo rituals before Gunners is traded out.

We need to bring in Jobu. He will help us kick straight.

 

[MrPremiership]

I assume he was meaning one of Breust, Poppy or Gunston.

Poppy wouldnt get us a first rounder either.

Trading out Gunners/Breust for top talent is self-defeating

 

[Leather Poisoning]

What about trading Cyril to essendon?

 

[MrPremiership]

How about just persisting with some of the talented kids already on this list?

Langford, Burton, Howe, Stewart.......bit of quality there.

Some others might emerge

 

[Ned Ryerson]

What about trading Cyril to essendon?

Imagine how much his hammys would love those soft Essendon training facility floors. #CooneyLogic.

 

[List Manager]

Great thread.
I think we all need to take a step back and remind ourselves that a process clearly began in October last year (trade period) that in all honesty wrote off the 2017 and 2018 seasons as gap years (one step back) on the way to building another sustained period of on-field success for the HFC (two steps forward) with a new list profile built over 2-3 seasons (beginning with Titch and Jaeger).
Make no mistake...Titch and Jaeger are the best young midfield talent we have had access to in quite some time and the club simply had to make those moves happen even if it meant paying overs for them at the trade table (which I think we only slightly did).
Take the emotion out of it and moving on Mitchell and Lewis were long term masterstrokes. These decisions are only small steps along the way to a much bigger picture.
We have free agency this year where we may or may not bring in more top end talent and I can see Wrighty setting us up for a big crack at the following draft come this years trade period (where we don't have many chips in the pot at this stage).

We are all passionate about our great club but I urge you to temper your expectations for this season and next.
Be patient all. There will be some short term pain for long term gain.

 

[Bedi]

In previous round one losses we haven't looked so completely out of touch against what will likely be a middle of the table team come the end of the year. People hailing patience with a rebuild aren't exactly out of line here. If you think we will be top 4 based on the end of our season last year, JLT performances (which I know aren't a guide as I often repeated - but it paints a picture now) and now round 1 loss were we were out-run, out-enthused and made to look ordinary - well that's awesome. I am not crossing my fingers - and I won't be upset if we don't dominate this year. Happy to ride the wave this year and see what the new players can do.

I thought the loss to Essendon round 2 2015 was considerably more worrying then Sat night.
And of course no one's out of line, but for me personally i'm not thrilled to be talking rebuilds Round 1. If it's round 10 with a 2:8 win/loss ratio, then sure let's make a plan.

 

[QuietB]

It would break my heart to trade Gunners. Trading Croad seemed like the meanest thing anyone could do. Until the prospect of Gunners was put before me.

I'd rather they start spraying chicken blood about the room in dark-magic voodoo rituals before Gunners is traded out.

I am sure you have enjoyed Luke Hodge's career. As I said if you want to make an omelette sometimes you need to crack a few eggs.

Cyril + Bruest + Gunston + Poppy + Sicily is completely and utterly ridiculously stacked. And as others have pointed out Poppy does not carry the trade value so he gets a reprieve.

Maybe Hawthorn can exploit free agency which was not there last time they went full rebuild. If they can't something is going to have to give.

 

[QuietB]

What about trading Cyril to essendon?

that would lead to civil war

 

[OzJohnnie]

We need to bring in Jobu. He will help us kick straight.

"F*** you, Jobu. I'll do it myself."

 

[Tasmaniac]

There is a school of thought that you always draft the best available player, not the best player you need at a certain pick. While it has some validity (and disastrous examples of going against it like when Portland drafted Sam Bowie instead of Michael Jordan in the NBA because they already had someone at Jordan's position) I was often slightly perplexed why we kept draft small-forward type players so often when we probably needed to restock a big sized defender or two. As it stands, we have tried to turn so many forwards into defenders (Brand, O'Brien, Schoey, Burton, Sicily) but when we had chances to draft defensive prospects like Kieran Collins we overlooked him. Now - our recruitment team have enough runs on the board for us to give them a fair bit of slack here - and maybe Collins showed deficiencies that were right to pass on (and he isn't setting the world on fire at VFL level) but it does seem odd that we have gone for so many of the Hardwick-type in past years when drafting players.

I've always assumed the plethora of smalls was due to our late draft picks = no decent sized AFL quality players left. So we choose to take small players who might have the qualities still to make it at AFL level. It does end up a bit depressing when we end up with a stack of them though.

 

[OzJohnnie]

I am sure you have enjoyed Luke Hodge's career. As I said if you want to make an omelette sometimes you need to crack a few eggs.

Cyril + Bruest + Gunston + Poppy + Sicily is completely and utterly ridiculously stacked. And as others have pointed out Poppy does not carry the trade value so he gets a reprieve.

Maybe Hawthorn can exploit free agency which was not there last time they went full rebuild. If they can't something is going to have to give.

Oh, I'm not denying that it was smart. Obviously so. Also, it was cruel. Kind of like euthanising my dog. The girl had to go down but it broke my heart all the same. Or maybe less dramatically, trading Sammy to WC and making room for the future. I'm on board, but I'm still gonna shed a tear, dammit.

 

[A Cut Above]

Thirdly, why can't we have a forward ? Can anyone imagine Josh Kennedy, or Taylor Walker, or Tom Hawkins or Jeremy Cameron roaming up around half back, or even being named there ? Not on your life.

I can think of three main reasons why we see the likes of Gunston, Puopolo, Cyril & others being played out of position.

1. Clarko puts a very high value on flexibility
2. The interchange cap & pace of the game make spreading the aerobic load important
3. Compared to other top 4 contenders our midfield is very pedestrian

The midfield has become an arms race and every club is running its' best players through there.