Autopsy The collective angst - post 2017 trade eon version

[LuvtheKangas]

The closing of the trade thread, whilst a merciful act, has left us with no point of discussion about the wider implications of what the f*** just happened. It's not just the disappointing trade period itself, but also the wider implications of what is going on internally, given the increasing mumblings from posters in the know that not all is well in the NMFC football department.

Since I can no longer quote from this thread, I'm pasting a quote from King Corey, which I think best sums up the reasons why many of us are becoming increasingly concerned, hence another collective angst.

"Can't speak for others but my issues are judging North's strategic direction 2016-17-18 as a unit rather than this year in isolation.

There are various individual actions taken that appear disjointed and not part of a cohesive direction."

KC, you're speaking for me.

 

[Mr. Blonde]

I actually agree with Chris Pelchen with this. Our direction is good, but we haven’t had the balls to fully commit to it. We needed to do whatever we could to improve our position in the next 2 drafts, and we didn’t.

 

[blackshadow]

 

[GarnerSmash]

Let me pose this question. Do we have a verbal agreement with JK to join us in 2020?

If so, then we will want to be pushing by that stage. If we trade out our current best crop for draft picks now, this does not happen until 2022/3 at the earliest. One player doesn't make a list, but is certainly can lift it. By 2020 we have 2 more seasons/preseasons into Simpkin, Ahern, pick 4, McDonald, Garner, Preuss, Durdin, McKay, Neilson, Zurhaar, Turner, Dumont. We still have Cunners, JZ, Atley, Macmillan, Taz, Brown, Wood, Higgins etc. We also get (hopefully) a swathe of good youngsters next year via the F/S and academy. They will be in their second season in 2020.

Trading out Taz, Brown or Cunners (lets be honest, they are the real value on our list and would get us the first rounders we need) would severely impact the ability to push by the time 2020 swings around and would leave a hole that we would only be hoping could be filled by the guys still developing.

If there ain't no JK verbal agreement, then we should have cashed in on one player of value, but perhaps that will happen next year.

 

[Snake_Baker]

I actually agree with Chris Pelchen with this. Our direction is good, but we haven’t had the balls to fully commit to it. We needed to do whatever we could to improve our position in the next 2 drafts, and we didn’t.

This year was too early to pull the trigger. Our moment will come in 2018 & 2019.

We have chosen the right path, since Martin withdrew.

2017: Add Cerra/Dow/Stephenson & a good player
2018: Best available midfielder, Thomas, Scott, Crocker, look at the RFA/UFA market
2019: Kelly and look at the RFA/UFA market.

3 x elite mids over the next 24 months.

Then look here:

2019 RFA/UFA's

Stephen Hill Restricted Free Agent
Sam Day Restricted Free Agent
Steven May Restricted Free Agent
Adam Tomlinson Restricted Free Agent
Dylan Shiel Restricted Free Agent
Matthew Buntine Restricted Free Agent
Nick Haynes Restricted Free Agent
Stephen Coniglio Restricted Free Agent
Grant Birchall Unrestricted Free Agent
Jack Gunston Restricted Free Agent
Chad Wingard Restricted Free Agent
Joshua Kennedy Restricted Free Agent
Liam Picken Unrestricted Free Agent

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

We had nothing to trade with in a weakish draft, we did fine by not trading Cunners/Tarrant just to fulfill the fragile egos of media commentators. Doing nothing isn't a failure when you have a pick in the top 5. You don't have to necessarily do anything during trade period.

 

[Boozeroo]

The media's self-feeding "criticism" of clubs who don't trade is laughable. The same clubs will be lauded in a few weeks as they held their draft picks.

Just another example of the bloated media animal's insatiable appetite for any and all news.

 

[LuvtheKangas]

Let me pose this question. Do we have a verbal agreement with JK to join us in 2020?

If so, then we will want to be pushing by that stage. If we trade out our current best crop for draft picks now, this does not happen until 2022/3 at the earliest. One player doesn't make a list, but is certainly can lift it. By 2020 we have 2 more seasons/preseasons into Simpkin, Ahern, pick 4, McDonald, Garner, Preuss, Durdin, McKay, Neilson, Zurhaar, Turner, Dumont. We still have Cunners, JZ, Atley, Macmillan, Taz, Brown, Wood, Higgins etc. We also get (hopefully) a swathe of good youngsters next year via the F/S and academy. They will be in their second season in 2020.

Trading out Taz, Brown or Cunners (lets be honest, they are the real value on our list and would get us the first rounders we need) would severely impact the ability to push by the time 2020 swings around and would leave a hole that we would only be hoping could be filled by the guys still developing.

If there ain't no JK verbal agreement, then we should have cashed in on one player of value, but perhaps that will happen next year.

Agree with all of that. I cut short my OP and left out the bit where I stated that I don't think our trade period was disastrous, but it also wasn't as well managed as it might have been. I totally agree that we should not have entertained trading Cunnington or Tarrant (or JZ or Brown or Simpkin or Higgins) - what is the point of getting some speculative picks if what you are hoping they turn into is at the very best, a Cunnington or Tarrant?

I am comfortable with the early delisting of Hansen - a great servant, but time to go. I am less comfortable with the treatment and strategic handling of Gibson, Mullett, Swallow and LT. In each case, I can see the argument that it was/is time to go, but the clear signals are that it wasn't done very well. It would have been easier to announce at the start of trade week that we were allowing these players to explore opportunities. Gets the negotiations started earlier, might have even netted us another pick or two (not valuable ones), and is fairer on each player (assuming under this scenario that they would have been fully briefed on the decision).

I am not comfortable with the way the Mountford contract played out, although the outcome is acceptable. I say this in the hope that it doesn't come back to bite us in 12 months.

As many have mentioned, the club is to be lauded on its newfound ability to make hard decisions. It now needs to get better at making smart decisions.

 

[LuvtheKangas]

View attachment 430427

 

[koshari]

i dont even know what all the angst is about, honestly if your disappointed in not getting stringer, lang or Kennedy your very fragile indeed.

take a couple of good kids with our 1st and 2nd rounder, push the 3rd and 4th into 2018s draft is a pretty honest outcome,

why does everyone believe we have to pull a rabbit out of a hat.

IMO Carlton was the only ones who nailed the draft purely on the back of a getting completely overs for Gibbs. and i suspect the only reason the crows did that was because they were feeling generous of what they got for lever.

2 first rounders is absolutely laughable.

if thats the going rate for a fair footballer i shudder to think what we would have been giving for Kelly!

 

[Orange Peanut]

Good Fred LtK.

I don't think we communicated particularly well during trade period. I don't hate that we did nothing, but we certainly didn't sell it very convincingly as part of an overall strategy.

I have to assume W80 is in the side as a placeholder until one of McKay, Larkey, Nielsen is ready to take his spot. This would indicate there is a game plan of some sort in place. The danger for me is that JW is a potential match winner, and it's difficult to believe that would be a remote priority for us in 2018.

I think it was Cornes on TR who offered Cam Joyce an opportunity to sell the future to the fans, and quite frankly I didn't even understand what he said. They seem to have cut that whole bit out of their highlights podcast too so maybe even their producers found it awkward.

Anyway as a rusted on member of 25-odd years I am looking forward to the draft, and hopeful for the future. But I don't feel like everything's quite right at our mighty club, and I hope things start taking shape soon.

 

[Horace]

Agree with all of that. I cut short my OP and left out the bit where I stated that I don't think our trade period was disastrous, but it also wasn't as well managed as it might have been. I totally agree that we should not have entertained trading Cunnington or Tarrant (or JZ or Brown or Simpkin or Higgins) - what is the point of getting some speculative picks if what you are hoping they turn into is at the very best, a Cunnington or Tarrant?

I am comfortable with the early delisting of Hansen - a great servant, but time to go. I am less comfortable with the treatment and strategic handling of Gibson, Mullett, Swallow and LT. In each case, I can see the argument that it was/is time to go, but the clear signals are that it wasn't done very well. It would have been easier to announce at the start of trade week that we were allowing these players to explore opportunities. Gets the negotiations started earlier, might have even netted us another pick or two (not valuable ones), and is fairer on each player (assuming under this scenario that they would have been fully briefed on the decision).

I am not comfortable with the way the Mountford contract played out, although the outcome is acceptable. I say this in the hope that it doesn't come back to bite us in 12 months.

As many have mentioned, the club is to be lauded on its newfound ability to make hard decisions. It now needs to get better at making smart decisions.

I agree that the trade period was not disastrous. The thing that no-one ever seems to take into consideration, none of us, and even more so those in the media, really know as much about our list, as the people who are at our club, will know. Our and the media's knowledge in infinitesimal compared to what the recruiting group know. People listen to the Pelican for their insights, but he is no longer a list manage/recruiter, his views must now be spread across all clubs and by extension will be far less informed than when he was at the Hawks and Saints.

Football critics do criticism because they get paid to do it, not necessarily because they are all that well informed.

 

[koshari]

I have to assume W80 is in the side as a placeholder until one of McKay, Larkey, Nielsen is ready to take his spot. This would indicate there is a game plan of some sort in place. The danger for me is that JW is a potential match winner, and it's difficult to believe that would be a remote priority for us in 2018.

at least he is entertaining to watch when he is on, dont know about you but i for one dont want to be going 22 rounds of footy nextyear wihout at least a few highlights,

last season was an absolute stinker but that image of the blokes huddled around with the scoreboard in the background with adelaide on a clean slate was gold.

 

[astrovic]

TBH I seem to be a helluva lot more positive about 2018 than most of you fine folk.

I'm not that angsty at all.

I've believed for some years now that the core of our side is the guys we recruited between about 2008 and 2011 - think Taz, Ziebell, Atley, Cunners, JMac etc. This core went to back to back prelims and then went 9 zip in 2016 (before the injury plague got us) and 4-6 in with some close losses pre-plague 2017. This core is still the core, still in the 25-30 age range and still in the prime of their careers. Media types seem to think that when we culled Boomer etc we lost our most important players but I don't agree. I think we still have them. Those players aren't important to the media or other clubs but screw them. Yeah these guys ain't superstars (though Cunners and Taz give that tag a shake) but they are pretty solid operators, no matter how many fists we shake at them at times.

Injuries exposed our depth in 2016 and our youth in 2017 (in a good way though) and that is why the losses mounted up. What would those seasons have looked like without double digit injury lists by mid-July? No flag of course, but we won 4 games out of 24 after round 11 over those two seasons and see that as an injury driven anomaly, not an indicator of where we are.

Looking at 2018, I see a team that is quite a bit like our mid-2000s teams - perenially lacking A grade talent but not lacking for blokes with ticker who'll have a crack. If you take out the injuries from the last two years, you get a mid table team and I reckon that's where we'll be in 2018 as well. The bottom of the ladder is generally reserved for teams who are either smashed by injury or lack ticker when it counts, so I just don't see us there unless injuries bite again.

I totally understand those who say that the last thing they want to see is a return to mid table finishes, and agree that finishing 8-12 is a dead zone of shit draft picks and no improvement. And yeah from an ultimate glory point of view I agree. But I'm simply looking at who we are, who our players are and where we're at, and I can't see us just letting mediocrity sink again and drop games cos we didn't really try. Cos that's what it would take to finish bottom 4 IMO. There are other teams that are way better at us at just giving up, irrespective of talent on paper. I also worry that losing begets losing - I'm worried that another year with a bunch of losses would start to sap away the ticker that makes North at the least hard to beat. If the goal is - as always - winning a flag, I'd be worried that cellar dwelling gets us junior talent (which we do need) but doesn't get us self-belief.

So yeah, I get the doom and gloom but think we're a bit better than that.

 

[Orange Peanut]

TBH I seem to be a helluva lot more positive about 2018 than most of you fine folk.

I'm not that angsty at all.

I've believed for some years now that the core of our side is the guys we recruited between about 2008 and 2011 - think Taz, Ziebell, Atley, Cunners, JMac etc. This core went to back to back prelims and then went 9 zip in 2016 (before the injury plague got us) and 4-6 in with some close losses pre-plague 2017. This core is still the core, still in the 25-30 age range and still in the prime of their careers. Media types seem to think that when we culled Boomer etc we lost our most important players but I don't agree. I think we still have them. Those players aren't important to the media or other clubs but screw them. Yeah these guys ain't superstars (though Cunners and Taz give that tag a shake) but they are pretty solid operators, no matter how many fists we shake at them at times.

Injuries exposed our depth in 2016 and our youth in 2017 (in a good way though) and that is why the losses mounted up. What would those seasons have looked like without double digit injury lists by mid-July? No flag of course, but we won 4 games out of 24 after round 11 over those two seasons and see that as an injury driven anomaly, not an indicator of where we are.

Looking at 2018, I see a team that is quite a bit like our mid-2000s teams - perenially lacking A grade talent but not lacking for blokes with ticker who'll have a crack. If you take out the injuries from the last two years, you get a mid table team and I reckon that's where we'll be in 2018 as well. The bottom of the ladder is generally reserved for teams who are either smashed by injury or lack ticker when it counts, so I just don't see us there unless injuries bite again.

I totally understand those who say that the last thing they want to see is a return to mid table finishes, and agree that finishing 8-12 is a dead zone of shit draft picks and no improvement. And yeah from an ultimate glory point of view I agree. But I'm simply looking at who we are, who our players are and where we're at, and I can't see us just letting mediocrity sink again and drop games cos we didn't really try. Cos that's what it would take to finish bottom 4 IMO. There are other teams that are way better at us at just giving up, irrespective of talent on paper. I also worry that losing begets losing - I'm worried that another year with a bunch of losses would start to sap away the ticker that makes North at the least hard to beat. If the goal is - as always - winning a flag, I'd be worried that cellar dwelling gets us junior talent (which we do need) but doesn't get us self-belief.

So yeah, I get the doom and gloom but think we're a bit better than that.

Good post mate

 

[jimandphilbadge]

Whi

This year was too early to pull the trigger. Our moment will come in 2018 & 2019.

We have chosen the right path, since Martin withdrew.

2017: Add Cerra/Dow/Stephenson & a good player
2018: Best available midfielder, Thomas, Scott, Crocker, look at the RFA/UFA market
2019: Kelly and look at the RFA/UFA market.

3 x elite mids over the next 24 months.

Then look here:

2019 RFA/UFA's

Stephen Hill Restricted Free Agent
Sam Day Restricted Free Agent
Steven May Restricted Free Agent
Adam Tomlinson Restricted Free Agent
Dylan Shiel Restricted Free Agent
Matthew Buntine Restricted Free Agent
Nick Haynes Restricted Free Agent
Stephen Coniglio Restricted Free Agent
Grant Birchall Unrestricted Free Agent
Jack Gunston Restricted Free Agent
Chad Wingard Restricted Free Agent
Joshua Kennedy Restricted Free Agent
Liam Picken Unrestricted Free Agent

Which Josh Kennedy Tef?
Some good names in there, however difficult to see Hill leaving WA.

Good balanced post about taking the longer term look.

 

[Le Grille]

I agree that the trade period was not disastrous. The thing that no-one ever seems to take into consideration, none of us, and even more so those in the media, really know as much about our list, as the people who are at our club, will know. Our and the media's knowledge in infinitesimal compared to what the recruiting group know. People listen to the Pelican for their insights, but he is no longer a list manage/recruiter, his views must now be spread across all clubs and by extension will be far less informed than when he was at the Hawks and Saints.

Football critics do criticism because they get paid to do it, not necessarily because they are all that well informed.

Agree for the most part but with the ability to eat salary and some trade assets (regardless of how tradeable you believe they are) there were opportunities tto take a risk and be creative. My concern is that the list's ceiling as it stands isn't good enough to be a contender in the future. Pick 4 will improve that as will next years picks (however, we cant hang our hat on getting all of Blakey, Crocker, Scott and Thomas). To have a list with no trade capital and a 50/50 record over the last 10 years is poor list management no matter which way you slice it, we had a shot in 15 to pinch a flag but I'd put it to you that our list lacked that bit of quality to put us over the top (Dogs in 16 and Tigers in 17 were better lists than ours in 15).

I do believe Brad was very lucky to be given the keys for this new rebuild (I maintain resigning him was unnecessary, with 1 yr left) but as we cant change that I was hoping that his approach might have been a bit different. Im not sure that is the case.

 

[Arden]

I actually agree with Chris Pelchen with this. Our direction is good, but we haven’t had the balls to fully commit to it. We needed to do whatever we could to improve our position in the next 2 drafts, and we didn’t.

What shit me about Pelchen's comments was that he compared us to Freo, saying that they had fully committed to a rebuild.

What a load of crap. Freo this year were kissed on the dick by the footy gods. They had the perfect storm of a kid that wanted to go back to the Gold Coast, a club so desperate for loyalty that they rated that over a number two draft pick. They didn't push anyone out, like he criticised us for, they never wanted to lose Weller, hence playing hardball. Hardly a strategy.

And they had the fortune of picking up Wilson for a second rounder, the benefit of being in a two team state and being nominated for returns home.

He praised Freo but they didn't do anything that he slammed us for not doing.

 

[koshari]

Whi

Which Josh Kennedy Tef?
Some good names in there, however difficult to see Hill leaving WA.

Good balanced post about taking the longer term look.

for mine if we required/were to go after a good defender , Nick Haynes would fit the bill, Sheil Might be disillusioned by then if they still hadnt tasted success.

 

[Le Grille]

Now the AFL have made no secret of engineering trade outcomes.

I actually think the weller thing was linked to the Ablett pick 19. GC get their player and a bit of an allowance so parting with pick 2 isn't disastrous.

I think its our turn to be kissed on the dick, Blakey pls AFL.

 

[Le Grille]

for mine if we required/were to go after a good defender , Nick Haynes would fit the bill, Sheil Might be disillusioned by then if they still hadnt tasted success.

Probably the only two that would be gettable that I would take.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Whi

Which Josh Kennedy Tef?
.

WCE. Probably won't be required.

However, if we throw the kitchen sink at one of Shiel or Coniglio to pair up with Josh, then I won't be complaining.

Some good names in there, however difficult to see Hill leaving WA.

Agree.

Good balanced post about taking the longer term look.

Thank you.

 

[Le Grille]

WCE. Probably won't be required.

However, if we throw the kitchen sink at one of Shiel or Coniglio to pair up with Josh, then I won't be complaining.

Would love Coniglio but if he moved it would be west you'd think.

Sheil? Yes mother****ing please!

 

[Snake_Baker]

Would love Coniglio but if he moved it would be west you'd think.

Sheil? Yes mother******* please!

We won't know if we don't aim for the stars.

 

[Le Grille]

We won't know if we don't aim for the stars.

Yeah I am happy with that.

I hope we get Blakey , so important that we get a bit of luck.