The Golden Rules - discussion thread

[Hodges]

Yeah I had all my rookies at 50, went fairly conservative for everyone else. I think around 1900 should be a good starting estimate.

 

[Lakey91]

Whats a good round one score though? What would you have to score to be:

Top 100
Top 500
Top 1000
Top 2500
Top 5000
Top 10000

??? Anybody know rough estimates???

 

[Piikeyyy]

last year i was 350 roughly and got a score of 1891 i think

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Something i am going to do this year is have my starting list and my end list (keeping the end in mind). However im also going to give a trade number of what i think a trade will be to get the keeper/premium.

Example:
Adcock > Hodge (1.2 trades)
Houlihan > C.Cornes (1.4 trades)
Higgins > Riewoldt (1.7 trades)

This will just give me an idea about how many trades i can save for injuries ect.

Also i think when selecting your inital squad keepers (the players you intend to keep) im going to make a rule that these players must be durable and expected to play 20+ games for the season. I did an analysis of "the convicts side" and he 18 of his final 22 play 21 games or more (Goddard 20). The other 4 all played 18 (chappy 17). Also his 11 keepers (the players he kept for entire year) all played 22 games (R.Murphy 21). Which reillustrates the importance of Durability amongst your keepers. That is why im staying away from players such as C.Cornes this year.

The convicts only kept 11 players from the very start which means you dont need to have 14 + keepers. He won with 11 keepers. I know he may have had 3 others that were intended keepers but they didnt end up being keepers, this shows that the higher number of keepers isnt needed to win the overall league.

Also people over hype the "rule" as such of getting a final squad with players that are top 10 in their position at the end of the year. By avg only 13 players in the convicts final side were in the top 10 for their position. Almost half his final side. For overall points 15 of his players were top 10 for their postion. Which also shows that overall points is far more important than avg's thus durability.

This year im going for a much safer side with much less durability issues and more of a mid price side. Im trying to pick the players that will be my 4,5,6,7 backs (bring in my 1,2,3 backs). My 5,6 mids (bring in my top 4 mids). My rucks are lock and leave. My 5,6,7 forwards (bring in my top 4 forwards).

This may mean 11 players to bring in which may be too much with trades. But the midprice improving side very much allows this. Get rid of the mid-pricers that dont work and keep the ones that do.

I would love to discuss the ides of money left over in the kitty (Is their a rule to this ??). Because i think its important to have money left over as it leaves you flexability early on and may save you a trade or 2 early on. I will think about bringing in a Skipworth for a Hasleby to simply get the extra 60k to start with.

 

[DaVe86]

There are some players where i don't even look at the price...i just simply pick them at the start of the year because i am handed 7million dollars and have unlimited trades.

I know their price will decrease, but i dont care...i'd rather have them in from the start and enjoy watching them rack it up.


I suppose that means i play the keepers and rookies strategy.

But it is becoming increasingly harder to do this...and thats a good thing for the game.

The reason it is harder is because the better draft picks are priced highly. In the past i would always pick up the first few draft picks because they were bottom priced. Now you have to pay too much for them so i don't pick them up. Would prefer a more mid-priced option who is safer.

 

[LemmingMaster]

I really like the fact they increased the price of the top draft picks. Where in previous years picking a player like Hill would have been less of a decision, it is now a tough call. To a lesser extent picking players like Sidebottom, Ziebell and other such players make you think twice.

Picking the good $86k rookies is going to be important this year.

 

[The Sultan]

Just a few points I would like to make:
Price is irrelevant until it is time to sell or buy, if you paid 500k for Bartel and he has a few stinkers and drops to 450k you have not lost anything unless you trade him, it is then you have lost 50k and a trade.
Round one is not the be all and end all, especially for rookies. If you are confident in your reseach then don’t feel the need to swap rookies, especially if they are on you bench, if they are not named round one. e.g. Rhys Palmer did not play round one a smoked it the rest of the season.

 

[Ausyid]

Just a few points I would like to make:
Price is irrelevant until it is time to sell or buy, if you paid 500k for Bartel and he has a few stinkers and drops to 450k you have not lost anything unless you trade him, it is then you have lost 50k and a trade.
Round one is not the be all and end all, especially for rookies. If you are confident in your reseach then don’t feel the need to swap rookies, especially if they are on you bench, if they are not named round one. e.g. Rhys Palmer did not play round one a smoked it the rest of the season.

I really like that first point.

A keeper is a keeper, and therefore his price changes do not matter. When picking a durable player who you want to keep for the whole season, remember to not get concerned when they go down in price, as long as they are scoring enough to keep their spot in your team.

And on that note, form is temporary whereas class is permanent. If a player has a few bad games in a row that does not mean he won't improve and keep a solid average for the season. Don't make impulsive decisions and trade out a keeper just because he is out of form.

 

[The Sultan]

And on that note, form is temporary whereas class is permanent. If a player has a few bad games in a row that does not mean he won't improve and keep a solid average for the season. Don't make impulsive decisions and trade out a keeper just because he is out of form.

Good point, got burned last year when I sold Riewoldt he had a few low games (for his standard) and then I think he missed one game because of a knee concern, so I sold him only for him to gun the rest of the year....

 

[kuzjuxcan]

good topic.
1) dont have too many players of the 1 team in your squad. If you are going for 3+ of the one team, ensure they are playing different positions for their club (even if they are in the same position in your team). So for example, if i have a few guys from the 1 squad, i ensure 1 is a defender, 1 a mid, 1 a forward.

Just my opinion., I think that is a fairly flawed strategy.. how many teams had the ABCS last year... some teams are notorious for overpossessing the ball like geelong.. making them all DT sluutz.. Same goes with supercoach. their are certain teams that play better in SC.. due to there style of play... syd, freo, essendon... there the players you want a smattering of in your side...

I do agree though if you do this you need to be selective of where they come from .. They only downer from having too many players from the same team in the same possie.. is that when their losing or on a losing streak.., their scores are deflated.. Which can mean have a very negative effect on your team score for the week.. which may result in losing a matchup..

So if you going to chose a crop of players in same possie from the same team.. make sure you get them from a top 4 team

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

I disagree with the fact of picking a player say Pavlich who will drop in price. Or as used above Bartel. Sure he is a keeper and no one would trade him out unless of injury. But why not get him in round 5 or 6 when he has dropped that 60-80k. Why not start with a player say M.Murphy who will maintain their price early on and than bring in Bartel if you think his price will drop early. I cant undertsand why people say it doesnt matter if your premiums lose money. Look at the forward line in 08. I had Brown, B.Johnson and Riewoldt, i think. They all lossed heaps of money early. I couldve started with say Gian, SJ, Deledio, Pav and than easily of brang in these 3 players to have a perfect 7 very ealry on in my forward line.

It all comes back to how you think players will start (badly or strongly).

 

[Virgil]

I disagree with the fact of picking a player say Pavlich who will drop in price. Or as used above Bartel. Sure he is a keeper and no one would trade him out unless of injury. But why not get him in round 5 or 6 when he has dropped that 60-80k. Why not start with a player say M.Murphy who will maintain their price early on and than bring in Bartel if you think his price will drop early. I cant undertsand why people say it doesnt matter if your premiums lose money. Look at the forward line in 08. I had Brown, B.Johnson and Riewoldt, i think. They all lossed heaps of money early. I couldve started with say Gian, SJ, Deledio, Pav and than easily of brang in these 3 players to have a perfect 7 very ealry on in my forward line.

It all comes back to how you think players will start (badly or strongly).

The bolded part was more to do with poor luck than it was structure. Pav and Roo were the same price, and SJ and Brown were also the same price, so structurally it isn't any different to what you had.

RE: Bartel, you're banking on him dropping in price, which isn't actually a given. His first match is against Hawthorn, who traditionally give away a lot of midfield points. He also plays Richmond and Adelaide in the first four rounds, two of his three highest scoring sides. This also doesn't take into account the points differential between having Jimmy captain as opposed to Murphy; you could be 1-200 points behind by the time you get him in.

 

[LemmingMaster]

The only time I would pick a player that I assume will only hold their average, is when they're a captaincy option. Otherwise, I agree with DWD, your team will be holding too much negative value.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

RE: Bartel, you're banking on him dropping in price, which isn't actually a given. His first match is against Hawthorn, who traditionally give away a lot of midfield points. He also plays Richmond and Adelaide in the first four rounds, two of his three highest scoring sides. This also doesn't take into account the points differential between having Jimmy captain as opposed to Murphy; you could be 1-200 points behind by the time you get him in.

It was only an example that was used above. I defiantly wasnt saying he will start the season slowly.

 

[Kid A]

There's no point purposely picking a player you believe will not be able to maintain his starting price or something very close to it. For example if you truly think Bartel is going to give you 460k value instead of 500k value (on average) over the year, you are wasting 40,000 and you'd be better off buying eg Swan. I think the general gist of it is that A) temporary peaks and troughs in value don't matter for keepers (eg I am sure that Bartel will at some point drop below 450k but he's still in my team) and B) as far as premiums go, they are in your team not to gain money per se but to save trades later on. Hence the premium/rookie strategy.

The challenge is finding keepers who will rise to become premium, both saving you a trade and also gaining you money. Eg Didak & Deledio last year. But stacking your team with players of this type is risky if they don't work out - you may end up with some 'keepers' but too few premiums which wrecks your upgradeability later on.

 

[Ausyid]

I disagree with the fact of picking a player say Pavlich who will drop in price. Or as used above Bartel. Sure he is a keeper and no one would trade him out unless of injury. But why not get him in round 5 or 6 when he has dropped that 60-80k. Why not start with a player say M.Murphy who will maintain their price early on and than bring in Bartel if you think his price will drop early. I cant undertsand why people say it doesnt matter if your premiums lose money. Look at the forward line in 08. I had Brown, B.Johnson and Riewoldt, i think. They all lossed heaps of money early. I couldve started with say Gian, SJ, Deledio, Pav and than easily of brang in these 3 players to have a perfect 7 very ealry on in my forward line.

It all comes back to how you think players will start (badly or strongly).

I'm not saying to pick them if you think they'll drop in price, I'm just saying don't impulsively trade them out if they do.

 

[54Dogs]

Just a few points I would like to make:
Price is irrelevant until it is time to sell or buy, if you paid 500k for Bartel and he has a few stinkers and drops to 450k you have not lost anything unless you trade him, it is then you have lost 50k and a trade.
Round one is not the be all and end all, especially for rookies. If you are confident in your reseach then don’t feel the need to swap rookies, especially if they are on you bench, if they are not named round one. e.g. Rhys Palmer did not play round one a smoked it the rest of the season.

I don't quite agree on the first point Sultan. Certainly a keeper stays in your team all year if you select him at the start but if he drops 100K (Johnn & J Brown last year) then you have 50,000 other coaches who are effectively 100K in front of you but have the same player. Opportunity cost. Having said that they have burnt a trade to get the underpriced player. I would rather have a Pav who is consistent in my starting lineup than Buddy even though they will most likely average the same as I should be able to pick up Buddy cheaper due to his high standard deviation (6 games under 80 last year to Pavs 1).

 

[Kid A]

Good point. Dogs. I think it's more useful to pick a Gia/Pav as your premium than a Riewoldt/Brown/Franklin. The former have a smaller standard deviation; therefore, it's more likely that the latter will present enticing trade in targets at some point during the season. Last year there were some perfect trading periods (I think almost everyone did Rioli -> Brown in the one week; Riewoldt was also very juicy). You can't expect this to happen every year, but overall you're better off selecting consistent forwards in your starting team imo.

 

[The Sultan]

I don't quite agree on the first point Sultan. Certainly a keeper stays in your team all year if you select him at the start but if he drops 100K (Johnn & J Brown last year) then you have 50,000 other coaches who are effectively 100K in front of you but have the same player. Opportunity cost. Having said that they have burnt a trade to get the underpriced player. I would rather have a Pav who is consistent in my starting lineup than Buddy even though they will most likely average the same as I should be able to pick up Buddy cheaper due to his high standard deviation (6 games under 80 last year to Pavs 1).

what I was trying to get as was, it is awaste of time to sit and plan at the start of the year saying x player is over valued and will drop so if i buy y player who will remain constant i should be able to use/waste a trade sell player y and and buy player x and be theoretically $$$ in front. Guns are guns you choose your starting guns who you think will score 100 plus every week and then throughout the year buy more guns selling cash cows. Basing a strategy on the beleif that certain players will drop in value in fraut with danger.

But in the end all this means jack shit beacuse really the whole game revolves around luck and about million other varaibles and we are all just making educated guesses.

 

[Lakey91]

Were there any players that we would of classed as guns at this time last year, that didnt drop below there starting price at all in 2008? Hard to know now that the new sites up, but yeh. Thoughts?

 

[ZergMinion]

Apologies for the crappy formatting, but no-one over 400k last year didn't drop at least some value last year (also no-one over 350k, and 300k+ only Marc Murphy and Brock Mclean)

Columns are starting value, min price, max price, price gain, price loss and name.

428000 402200 502500 74500 -25800 gary ablett
425600 383700 425600 0 -41900 scott west
436600 388600 480000 43400 -48000 dean cox
443000 381000 443000 0 -62000 matthew pavlich
412600 350400 412600 0 -62200 luke hodge
420700 351900 420700 0 -68800 cameron bruce
402200 332300 429500 27300 -69900 daniel cross
452100 380600 474000 21900 -71500 joel corey
416500 344700 416500 0 -71800 brent harvey
441000 367900 448300 7300 -73100 dane swan
406600 329200 417100 10500 -77400 lenny hayes
432700 354200 479300 46600 -78500 scott thompson
404300 324500 404300 0 -79800 adam simpson
412100 325400 412500 400 -86700 steve johnson
434900 347700 434900 0 -87200 andrew carrazzo
413400 324000 436700 23300 -89400 joel bowden
433700 341700 433700 0 -92000 heath scotland
445200 353000 445200 0 -92200 paul chapman
400400 305700 449100 48700 -94700 brent stanton
410500 314700 410500 0 -95800 sam mitchell
419900 322500 419900 0 -97400 matthew boyd
466700 363200 466700 0 -103500 kane cornes
426200 317500 426200 0 -108700 tyson edwards
496800 387700 496800 0 -109100 jimmy bartel
403600 293700 403600 0 -109900 daniel kerr
431500 319800 446200 14700 -111700 nick riewoldt
435300 316000 435300 0 -119300 brad johnson
406900 287400 437400 30500 -119500 jonathan brown
418800 293600 418800 0 -125200 james mcdonald
415900 280900 418200 2300 -135000 leigh montagna
439600 295400 451600 12000 -144200 chad cornes
411600 243900 411600 0 -167700 jordan lewis
440000 270600 440000 0 -169400 tarkyn lockyer

 

[matt73]

Apologies for the crappy formatting, but no-one over 400k last year didn't drop at least some value last year (also no-one over 350k, and 300k+ only Marc Murphy and Brock Mclean)

Columns are starting value, min price, max price, price gain, price loss and name.

428000 402200 502500 74500 -25800 gary ablett
425600 383700 425600 0 -41900 scott west
436600 388600 480000 43400 -48000 dean cox
443000 381000 443000 0 -62000 matthew pavlich
412600 350400 412600 0 -62200 luke hodge
420700 351900 420700 0 -68800 cameron bruce
402200 332300 429500 27300 -69900 daniel cross
452100 380600 474000 21900 -71500 joel corey
416500 344700 416500 0 -71800 brent harvey
441000 367900 448300 7300 -73100 dane swan
406600 329200 417100 10500 -77400 lenny hayes
432700 354200 479300 46600 -78500 scott thompson
404300 324500 404300 0 -79800 adam simpson
412100 325400 412500 400 -86700 steve johnson
434900 347700 434900 0 -87200 andrew carrazzo
413400 324000 436700 23300 -89400 joel bowden
433700 341700 433700 0 -92000 heath scotland
445200 353000 445200 0 -92200 paul chapman
400400 305700 449100 48700 -94700 brent stanton
410500 314700 410500 0 -95800 sam mitchell
419900 322500 419900 0 -97400 matthew boyd
466700 363200 466700 0 -103500 kane cornes
426200 317500 426200 0 -108700 tyson edwards
496800 387700 496800 0 -109100 jimmy bartel
403600 293700 403600 0 -109900 daniel kerr
431500 319800 446200 14700 -111700 nick riewoldt
435300 316000 435300 0 -119300 brad johnson
406900 287400 437400 30500 -119500 jonathan brown
418800 293600 418800 0 -125200 james mcdonald
415900 280900 418200 2300 -135000 leigh montagna
439600 295400 451600 12000 -144200 chad cornes
411600 243900 411600 0 -167700 jordan lewis
440000 270600 440000 0 -169400 tarkyn lockyer

WOW, thats some very useful information.. Thanks ZM. I have never fully understood how the magic number works and how it changes during the year (i wish i did) but the above numbers show that a few bad games (and the inclusion of that score for the three week rolling average) will get every player at some stage during the year!!!

An even more useful exercise would be to find out when these players reached their mininimum (what Round?). Ideally it would be just before mid-season when upgrading maxed out rookies begins.

 

[ZergMinion]

I've added min value round and max value round to the table. Looks like quite a few hit min value in round 22, which is useless for our purposes

Once again apologies for the crappy formatting.

428000 402200 502500 74500 -25800 gary ablett 22 13
425600 383700 425600 0 -41900 scott west 6 1
436600 388600 480000 43400 -48000 dean cox 22 17
443000 381000 443000 0 -62000 matthew pavlich 6 1
412600 350400 412600 0 -62200 luke hodge 17 2
420700 351900 420700 0 -68800 cameron bruce 5 1
402200 332300 429500 27300 -69900 daniel cross 21 4
452100 380600 474000 21900 -71500 joel corey 13 3
416500 344700 416500 0 -71800 brent harvey 10 1
441000 367900 448300 7300 -73100 dane swan 22 12
406600 329200 417100 10500 -77400 lenny hayes 15 6
432700 354200 479300 46600 -78500 scott thompson 19 12
404300 324500 404300 0 -79800 adam simpson 22 1
412100 325400 412500 400 -86700 steve johnson 21 12
434900 347700 434900 0 -87200 andrew carrazzo 17 1
413400 324000 436700 23300 -89400 joel bowden 12 22
433700 341700 433700 0 -92000 heath scotland 15 1
445200 353000 445200 0 -92200 paul chapman 22 1
400400 305700 449100 48700 -94700 brent stanton 10 17
410500 314700 410500 0 -95800 sam mitchell 12 1
419900 322500 419900 0 -97400 matthew boyd 22 1
466700 363200 466700 0 -103500 kane cornes 22 1
426200 317500 426200 0 -108700 tyson edwards 22 1
496800 387700 496800 0 -109100 jimmy bartel 13 1
403600 293700 403600 0 -109900 daniel kerr 10 1
431500 319800 446200 14700 -111700 nick riewoldt 10 17
435300 316000 435300 0 -119300 brad johnson 6 1
406900 287400 437400 30500 -119500 jonathan brown 8 12
418800 293600 418800 0 -125200 james mcdonald 13 1
415900 280900 418200 2300 -135000 leigh montagna 14 6
439600 295400 451600 12000 -144200 chad cornes 16 5
411600 243900 411600 0 -167700 jordan lewis 17 3
440000 270600 440000 0 -169400 tarkyn lockyer 19 1

 

[ZergMinion]

<edit - double post>

 

[ZergMinion]

Ok...these numbers are more useful I've excluded rounds 1-5 and rounds 15-22. Gary Ablett was the only player who started over 400k that wasn't available cheaper during rounds 6-14.

Columns are starting price, min price (rounds 6-14), max price (rounds 6-14), price gain (positive numbers are gains), price loss (negative numbers are losses), player name, min price round number, max price round number.

428000 440000 502500 74500 12000 gary ablett 6 13
402200 371900 420400 18200 -30300 daniel cross 13 6
432700 394800 479300 46600 -37900 scott thompson 8 12
425600 383700 383700 -41900 -41900 scott west 6 6
436600 389900 420000 -16600 -46700 dean cox 13 10
419900 371500 419600 -300 -48400 matthew boyd 9 13
441000 391500 448300 7300 -49500 dane swan 7 12
420700 368300 409800 -10900 -52400 cameron bruce 6 8
404300 345800 385200 -19100 -58500 adam simpson 6 10
412600 351400 392900 -19700 -61200 luke hodge 13 6
443000 381000 409500 -33500 -62000 matthew pavlich 6 14
412100 348900 412500 400 -63200 steve johnson 9 12
426200 362800 419100 -7100 -63400 tyson edwards 10 14
452100 380600 437800 -14300 -71500 joel corey 13 6
416500 344700 411500 -5000 -71800 brent harvey 10 6
406600 331600 417100 10500 -75000 lenny hayes 13 6
445200 367500 387000 -58200 -77700 paul chapman 13 6
440000 355000 393800 -46200 -85000 tarkyn lockyer 12 7
434900 348900 415500 -19400 -86000 andrew carrazzo 13 7
433700 344900 409600 -24100 -88800 heath scotland 14 10
413400 324000 370700 -42700 -89400 joel bowden 12 14
466700 375300 427700 -39000 -91400 kane cornes 14 7
400400 305700 401800 1400 -94700 brent stanton 10 6
410500 314700 402000 -8500 -95800 sam mitchell 12 9
411600 302600 393000 -18600 -109000 jordan lewis 14 6
496800 387700 475600 -21200 -109100 jimmy bartel 13 6
403600 293700 320400 -83200 -109900 daniel kerr 10 14
431500 319800 386800 -44700 -111700 nick riewoldt 10 14
435300 316000 376100 -59200 -119300 brad johnson 6 14
406900 287400 437400 30500 -119500 jonathan brown 8 12
439600 319100 431200 -8400 -120500 chad cornes 13 6
418800 293600 351300 -67500 -125200 james mcdonald 13 6
415900 280900 418200 2300 -135000 leigh montagna 14 6