- Sep 27, 2005
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Anyone would think we're playing the Brisbane 01-04 side. It's hilarious. This is good for us.
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Anyone would think we're playing the Brisbane 01-04 side. It's hilarious. This is good for us.
- Oct 4, 2018
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This was a comment posted on our Membership promotion video in 2014. If you remember the phrase then was #gatherthepack. In the Ad it said things like
"we're building", "It's getting stronger". Which ended up to be true considering we won a flag two years later. Here's the comment.
"this ad is a joke right? they have accomplished nothing in 60+ years and year after year it is exactly the same, I honestly can't remember the last time (bar melb, gws) they have been favourites in a game, the most frustrating team to watch and so boring cause it's exactly the same week in, week out."
I wasn't alive in 1989 when our club was nearly destroyed and the only Prelim losses I remember were 2008, 2009, 2010. So when I think of the lowest point in my life with footy I think of the end of 2014. (Even though 09 was pretty devastating I still think end of 2014 was worst). Coming off quite a poor year. Loosing our Captain, Brownlow Medalist, Coach ect was so devastating. Even the team itself was depressing those years. I still remember going to games on a Sunday Afternoon with the stadium being emptier than it would be on a 25% capacity rule.
If you just look at that quote we all laugh at it now but I'm sure some of us including myself felt the same way. It just shows how far we've come. A lot of us would've had no hope after the 2014 season. But we still stuck with our club and lived a fairtytale. Even the team itself was depressing those years.
Who the hell would thought after the end of 2014 that in the next seven years we would go on to make five finals appearances along with playing in two Grand Finals.
Anyway I bet that tossers a Doggie Supporter now. I like how he also slags off Dees who are playing us this week and GWS who have been one of the better and dangerous teams over the last five years. How far we've come.
Bring on the big dance.
#YeildToNone
"we're building", "It's getting stronger". Which ended up to be true considering we won a flag two years later. Here's the comment.
"this ad is a joke right? they have accomplished nothing in 60+ years and year after year it is exactly the same, I honestly can't remember the last time (bar melb, gws) they have been favourites in a game, the most frustrating team to watch and so boring cause it's exactly the same week in, week out."
I wasn't alive in 1989 when our club was nearly destroyed and the only Prelim losses I remember were 2008, 2009, 2010. So when I think of the lowest point in my life with footy I think of the end of 2014. (Even though 09 was pretty devastating I still think end of 2014 was worst). Coming off quite a poor year. Loosing our Captain, Brownlow Medalist, Coach ect was so devastating. Even the team itself was depressing those years. I still remember going to games on a Sunday Afternoon with the stadium being emptier than it would be on a 25% capacity rule.
If you just look at that quote we all laugh at it now but I'm sure some of us including myself felt the same way. It just shows how far we've come. A lot of us would've had no hope after the 2014 season. But we still stuck with our club and lived a fairtytale. Even the team itself was depressing those years.
Who the hell would thought after the end of 2014 that in the next seven years we would go on to make five finals appearances along with playing in two Grand Finals.
Anyway I bet that tossers a Doggie Supporter now. I like how he also slags off Dees who are playing us this week and GWS who have been one of the better and dangerous teams over the last five years. How far we've come.
Bring on the big dance.
#YeildToNone
Every neutral fan i know is going for the Doggies, so goodluck guys. I want u to win, i have never liked the Dees, fans are just flakey Toffs, and Lyon is insufferable. I want you to win for my late Dad in law, 6 yr WW2 Digger, who loved his Dogs so much, i watched a number of games with him at Western Oval, sadly he never saw 2016 flag. And for my sis in law, who lost her young daughter to cancer, her Doggies have got her thru a lot of grief. For them, i want you to win, this is it, you can do this, and i will be barracking hard for you. GO DOGGIES, now go an take care of business, get this done, bring it home.!
I wonder what he thought of the Queens Birthday game, when my Pies, playing a bunch of kids, in a game the Deees love, took them to the cleaners, beat Gawn, held Petracca and Oliver, and ran them off their legs, in what was a very ordiinary rebuilding season for us ? IF we did it so can the Doggies. Dogs by 16 points i reckon.
And this is how cocky Melbourne are:
"
If Melbourne and the Bulldogs bring their standard game, Melbourne will be too strong.
This is why Melbourne are ~80% chance to win in my eyes:
- Melbourne are the stronger contested team, having bettered the Bulldogs throughout the year and in the two contests between these teams during H&A.
- The round 19 game was a draw on “expected scores” meaning non-standard accuracy on the night was a major factor.
- Round 19, in the wet, was statistically Melbourne’s worst disposal efficiency game for the year, whereas Bulldgos went at their season norm which indicates a more significant opportunity for Melbourne to improve. Gawn, Petracca and Pickett all had their least efficient games for the year that night, which is highly unlikely to repeat.
- Round 19 saw the Bulldogs kick almost half their score (37 points) from forward stoppages, which is many factors higher than their average score from this method and therefore highly unlikely to repeat.
- Round 19 saw a statistically anamoulously high gap (41% margin) between each team’s normal aggregate “free kicks for” which is unlikely to repeat.
- Josh Bruce scored almost a quarter of the Bulldogs’ goals in the previous four hours of game time between these teams. His replacement is Josh Schache who won’t demand the same respect defensively.
- Stef Martin didn’t play in the two H&A games and is called out as a big difference maker, but I don’t think he can go with Gawn at all. Martin played 16 games across 2020 to 2021. Discounting one game where he got injured and subbed out, he could only better 77% time on ground twice so he doesn’t have the fitness to handle Gawn. Across that period if you make a Frankenstein’s monster of what would be Martin’s statistically best game (15 disposals, 30 hit outs, 4 tackles, 2 contested marks, 6 clearances, 1 goal) it’s probably still weaker than Gawn’s average game* across that period (19, 35, 3, 2.2, 4.5, 0.5). Add onto that Stef is a lovely guy, he doesn’t have it in him to be over the top physically brutal against Gawn as has been suggested.
* adjust 2020 for equivalent 20 minute quarters
The Bulldogs can win of course, but they will need to rely on the game being unusual and not following the norms established during 2021. It would require several of:
- masterful tactical moves by Beveridge that Goodwin can’t counter, the most obvious one being the Bulldogs change how they bring the ball into their forward line which counters Melbourne’s backline. If the Bulldogs kick long at N, while he will mark a few through the game, Melbourne’s backline will dominate as it’s too predictable.
- multiple “out of the box” performances from Bulldogs’ players, and not just the top line players as there will be plans to counter the obviously dangerous players.
- multiple “down” performances from Melbourne’s players, which if it happens would likely be related to Beveridge comprehensively out coaching Goodwin.
- persistent unusual accuracy or inaccuracy when kicking for goal.
- significant impact of in-game injuries"
"
If Melbourne and the Bulldogs bring their standard game, Melbourne will be too strong.
This is why Melbourne are ~80% chance to win in my eyes:
- Melbourne are the stronger contested team, having bettered the Bulldogs throughout the year and in the two contests between these teams during H&A.
- The round 19 game was a draw on “expected scores” meaning non-standard accuracy on the night was a major factor.
- Round 19, in the wet, was statistically Melbourne’s worst disposal efficiency game for the year, whereas Bulldgos went at their season norm which indicates a more significant opportunity for Melbourne to improve. Gawn, Petracca and Pickett all had their least efficient games for the year that night, which is highly unlikely to repeat.
- Round 19 saw the Bulldogs kick almost half their score (37 points) from forward stoppages, which is many factors higher than their average score from this method and therefore highly unlikely to repeat.
- Round 19 saw a statistically anamoulously high gap (41% margin) between each team’s normal aggregate “free kicks for” which is unlikely to repeat.
- Josh Bruce scored almost a quarter of the Bulldogs’ goals in the previous four hours of game time between these teams. His replacement is Josh Schache who won’t demand the same respect defensively.
- Stef Martin didn’t play in the two H&A games and is called out as a big difference maker, but I don’t think he can go with Gawn at all. Martin played 16 games across 2020 to 2021. Discounting one game where he got injured and subbed out, he could only better 77% time on ground twice so he doesn’t have the fitness to handle Gawn. Across that period if you make a Frankenstein’s monster of what would be Martin’s statistically best game (15 disposals, 30 hit outs, 4 tackles, 2 contested marks, 6 clearances, 1 goal) it’s probably still weaker than Gawn’s average game* across that period (19, 35, 3, 2.2, 4.5, 0.5). Add onto that Stef is a lovely guy, he doesn’t have it in him to be over the top physically brutal against Gawn as has been suggested.
* adjust 2020 for equivalent 20 minute quarters
The Bulldogs can win of course, but they will need to rely on the game being unusual and not following the norms established during 2021. It would require several of:
- masterful tactical moves by Beveridge that Goodwin can’t counter, the most obvious one being the Bulldogs change how they bring the ball into their forward line which counters Melbourne’s backline. If the Bulldogs kick long at N, while he will mark a few through the game, Melbourne’s backline will dominate as it’s too predictable.
- multiple “out of the box” performances from Bulldogs’ players, and not just the top line players as there will be plans to counter the obviously dangerous players.
- multiple “down” performances from Melbourne’s players, which if it happens would likely be related to Beveridge comprehensively out coaching Goodwin.
- persistent unusual accuracy or inaccuracy when kicking for goal.
- significant impact of in-game injuries"
I saw this, and was tempted to write a reply consisting solely of the URL for the Wikipedia article on confirmation bias…
- Oct 12, 2012
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He forgot - umpires cheat
- Jan 19, 2014
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I'm not sure how much "norms" apply in these games. Time and space are at a premium and hard to come by. It's pressure magnified significantly and decision making and skill execution under conditions far from the norm.
Cool heads under intense pressure are very valuable. Melbourne have some we think, the Dogs have some we know.
Cool heads under intense pressure are very valuable. Melbourne have some we think, the Dogs have some we know.
Because we made it so, it didn't just happen
It’s funny because every mate I have who goes for Melbourne are the complete opposite and were shattered to play us instead of Port.
I think it will be us and them fighting it out the next few years - I’m getting Geelong v Hawthorn rivalry vibes.
pappy
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David King wow. I like how he said it could be Melbourne by as much as 30 points but it could also be the dogs by 30. Guy is a complete waste of time. Comes across as an expert but deep down is just a prop, with not much up top.
- Sep 27, 2005
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This as described below from a Melbourne supporter is one of the most meaningless, inane pieces of 'analysis' I've ever had the misfortune to read.
Expected scores has to be the most useless stat since King's Premiership Quadrant.
The round 19 game was a draw on “expected scores” meaning non-standard accuracy on the night was a major factor.
Expected scores has to be the most useless stat since King's Premiership Quadrant.
The round 19 game was a draw on “expected scores” meaning non-standard accuracy on the night was a major factor.
Last edited:
- Sep 14, 2015
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He may be our 2021 #neverforget?
maddog37
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Anyone know our winning percentage when we are the older team?
- Jun 19, 2016
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Just because they’ve written banter on top of a thread it shouldn’t excuse shit like this being posted. I won’t be returning to that thread if that’s the level of “bantz” and “humour” on offer.
For those of you lamenting King’s tips, just remember he picked Sydney by 60+ in the 2014 GF. He was half right, except Hawthorn was the team that won by 60+. So, you know, only out by a slim 20+ goal margin.
Hawks were bigger outsiders to win that game than the dogs are this week. Their blueprint is an interesting one - I don’t expect our boys to be as “unsociable” as they were but bringing much greater pressure against a team expected to win who then couldn’t get off the mat is likely our best chance of a win.
Hawks were bigger outsiders to win that game than the dogs are this week. Their blueprint is an interesting one - I don’t expect our boys to be as “unsociable” as they were but bringing much greater pressure against a team expected to win who then couldn’t get off the mat is likely our best chance of a win.
- Aug 18, 2015
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The sun always shines at the Whitten Oval (metaphorically speaking)!!I raise you my daily walk past Whitten Oval. May the love from the spiritual home travel through Bigfooty from me to you to ensure that Optus Stadium shows 5 star hospitality and a comfortable win for the 'Dogs.
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