AFL Grand Final The Grand Final awaits!

[BulldogWarrior]

Super pumped for tomorrow, Dogs by 22 (same as "16), Bontempelli Norm Smith

 

[glenashley]

Main board is just a massive cope from the Dees trying to convince themselves they'll destroy us.

Best one I heard was that they have a superstar forward line, despite the fact that they generally kicked low scores (only broke 100 four times in the regular season) and were carried by their defence.

 

[weltschmerz]

I found a tier 1 exposure site sign up at my local supermarket so the night before the GF has been stressful for all the wrong reasons. Here's hoping I have two reasons to celebrate tomorrow night.

 

[Morris Major]

Watched Outsiders tonight, I am ready for tomorrow

 

[Munnez]

Reckon Melbourne will go the knuckle a bit ala GWS. Assume the Dogs will ready. Be keeping an eye on Viney and Hibberd

Would be a mistake if Melbourne go the knuckle. This is a very different team to the one that got monstered by GWS. Reckon we put the score on the board and rattle them with scoreboard pressure.
If we can jump too an early lead Melbourne could fold

 

[Chicago1]

The day has finally arrived.



GO DOGS!

 

[random__hero]

 

[Fultons]

Would be a mistake if Melbourne go the knuckle. This is a very different team to the one that got monstered by GWS. Reckon we put the score on the board and rattle them with scoreboard pressure.
If we can jump too an early lead Melbourne could fold

Let’s hope any filthy stuff by the Ds Is quickly squared up. Also heard a whisper that Dunks is 100% fit for the first time since he did his shoulder and is absolutely set for this

 

[The 4th Horseman]

Let’s go lads! My boy and I

 

[Floridog]

The Long Awaited, Half Way Round the World, Analysis Free, Statistics Free, Biased Bulldog Fan Grand Final Prediction:

The game will be close with several lead changes through the first three quarters. The Bulldogs will pull away in the fourth and win by 28. The free kick count will be close through the first three quarters but, as the the Dogs pull away and the Dees get more desperate, the Dees will give away several frees late in the game including a rather soft free that will lead to the final goal.
So Dogs will win, we will celebrate and everyone else will whinge about the umpires.

 

[The 4th Horseman]

️

 

[Flags_In_The_Bag]

And this is how cocky Melbourne are:

"
If Melbourne and the Bulldogs bring their standard game, Melbourne will be too strong.

This is why Melbourne are ~80% chance to win in my eyes:
- Melbourne are the stronger contested team, having bettered the Bulldogs throughout the year and in the two contests between these teams during H&A.
- The round 19 game was a draw on “expected scores” meaning non-standard accuracy on the night was a major factor.
- Round 19, in the wet, was statistically Melbourne’s worst disposal efficiency game for the year, whereas Bulldgos went at their season norm which indicates a more significant opportunity for Melbourne to improve. Gawn, Petracca and Pickett all had their least efficient games for the year that night, which is highly unlikely to repeat.
- Round 19 saw the Bulldogs kick almost half their score (37 points) from forward stoppages, which is many factors higher than their average score from this method and therefore highly unlikely to repeat.
- Round 19 saw a statistically anamoulously high gap (41% margin) between each team’s normal aggregate “free kicks for” which is unlikely to repeat.
- Josh Bruce scored almost a quarter of the Bulldogs’ goals in the previous four hours of game time between these teams. His replacement is Josh Schache who won’t demand the same respect defensively.
- Stef Martin didn’t play in the two H&A games and is called out as a big difference maker, but I don’t think he can go with Gawn at all. Martin played 16 games across 2020 to 2021. Discounting one game where he got injured and subbed out, he could only better 77% time on ground twice so he doesn’t have the fitness to handle Gawn. Across that period if you make a Frankenstein’s monster of what would be Martin’s statistically best game (15 disposals, 30 hit outs, 4 tackles, 2 contested marks, 6 clearances, 1 goal) it’s probably still weaker than Gawn’s average game* across that period (19, 35, 3, 2.2, 4.5, 0.5). Add onto that Stef is a lovely guy, he doesn’t have it in him to be over the top physically brutal against Gawn as has been suggested.

* adjust 2020 for equivalent 20 minute quarters

The Bulldogs can win of course, but they will need to rely on the game being unusual and not following the norms established during 2021. It would require several of:
- masterful tactical moves by Beveridge that Goodwin can’t counter, the most obvious one being the Bulldogs change how they bring the ball into their forward line which counters Melbourne’s backline. If the Bulldogs kick long at N, while he will mark a few through the game, Melbourne’s backline will dominate as it’s too predictable.
- multiple “out of the box” performances from Bulldogs’ players, and not just the top line players as there will be plans to counter the obviously dangerous players.
- multiple “down” performances from Melbourne’s players, which if it happens would likely be related to Beveridge comprehensively out coaching Goodwin.
- persistent unusual accuracy or inaccuracy when kicking for goal.
- significant impact of in-game injuries"

Ohh boy

 

[Floridog]

When I first discovered AFL and saw that there was a team called the Western Bulldogs I figured they were from Perth or thereabouts. Of course I was wrong, silly American. But I'm gonna run with that today anyway and figure we got this game in the bag because we've got HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE!

 

[Flags_In_The_Bag]

Will win by 54 points to really sink it in

 

[mcgleereturns]

Will win by 54 points to really sink it in

Nah, let’s win by 64 to hammer home that number in Melbourne minds.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Boyd oh Boyd]

I don't know how any of you are sleeping.

 

[Hobdog]

Bang, I’m awake early, just like 2016. Go dogs!


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[philmb]

The Weeeeeestern Bulldoooogs, taaaaaaking overrrr, taaaking overrrr!

 

[mcgleereturns]

In 2016, I was already up and dressed and ready to go on the train and get to the G early for a good standing room spot. This is gonna be a loonnnggg day of waiting!!


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Dog 36]

Well I went to bed can’t say I slept.

Had every scenario and feeling going through my head.

Late game long long day

 

[Hobdog]

Well I went to bed can’t say I slept.

Had every scenario and feeling going through my head.

Late game long long day

Fortunately I slept so badly the previous night that I was super tired last night. I have no idea how the players get a good night’s sleep before a grand final. I’ll take my little girl for a walk today and do the lawns at home, that’ll kill some time.


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[Munnez]

The Long Awaited, Half Way Round the World, Analysis Free, Statistics Free, Biased Bulldog Fan Grand Final Prediction:

The game will be close with several lead changes through the first three quarters. The Bulldogs will pull away in the fourth and win by 28. The free kick count will be close through the first three quarters but, as the the Dogs pull away and the Dees get more desperate, the Dees will give away several frees late in the game including a rather soft free that will lead to the final goal.
So Dogs will win, we will celebrate and everyone else will whinge about the umpires.

And seriously will we give a stuff if we have just won

 

[Dog 36]

Fortunately I slept so badly the previous night that I was super tired last night. I have no idea how the players get a good night’s sleep before a grand final. I’ll take my little girl for a walk today and do the lawns at home, that’ll kill some time.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

I may need to mow every house on the st lawns to kill time.
I like your plan walk and lawns

 

[Dogs Rule]

In 2016, I was already up and dressed and ready to go on the train and get to the G early for a good standing room spot. This is gonna be a loonnnggg day of waiting!!


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Likewise. Got going early for breakfast in the city back in 2016 and walking over the bridge to the G, my mate and I were bouncing along waving our flags like we hadn't done since we were kids.

Got to the G and couldn't believe it, just walked around in a daze, a happy, contented, giddy daze. Shattered we don't get that chance this year, but so grateful we had that opportunity. It was a hell of a day.

Just going to keep busy today. Feels different. Very distant and a bit removed from it, but happy we broke the drought in 2016, far more relaxed than I would've been about the game.

Don't need to watch previews or any of the guff, we all know what we'll get with that (more saccharine cheerleading and sentimentality for our opponents) so screw that. Just going to do jobs and then tune in for the first bounce. A smash and grab, ambush type approach to the game (hopefully the lads follow suit).

 

[Hobdog]

I may need to mow every house on the st lawns to kill time.
I like your plan walk and lawns

Yeah it’s also the exact same way I spent prelim final day. Perhaps a little superstitious on my part but I’ll give it a go!


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