The impending Sinn Fein government in the next Irish Republic election, 2025.

[CrazyJoeFevola]

So, the next election in the 26 counties that constitute the Irish Republic (Free State under the whip of the Brits to the more hardcore republicans) will occur by March 2025. After the Sinn Fein surge last election, where they topped the poll but got locked out to the degree that mortal right wing Civil War rivals Fianna Fail and Fine Gael formed a coalition rather than deal with Sinn Fein, Sinn Fein has gone from strength to strength. Look at the latest collation of Polls

Sinn Féin	64	+28
Fine Gael	37	+3
Fianna Fáil	35	-2
Independents	11	-10
PBP/Solidarity	5	nc
Social Democrats	4	-2
Labour	4	-3
Green Party	0	-12
Aontú	0	-1
Right2Change	0	-1

This is only growing and it's indisputable that Sinn Fein provide the next Taoiseach. For the first time since independence, Ireland will be led by the left. Who do they partner with? Do the bring in Fianna Fail as a broad nationalist coalition, or do they target the trots and left independents, SocDems, PBP? Or do they go it alone as a minority?

More broadly what does this do for Irish Unity. Sinn Fein has the highest vote in both the North and the South but the Southern vote is more focused on their housing and democratic socialist policies than unification, whereas their Northern vote is all about being freed from the British yoke.

How do we see the Republic looking after 2025?

 

[Malifice]

Blind Freddy can see which way it's headed.

Wall to wall SF governments in Ireland and Northern Ireland, coupled with the impacts of Brexit, and in opposition to not just the UK, but also the Conservative Tory government of the UK, and a far less popular Morarch than Liz (as far as the Unionists are concerned).

It's only a matter of time before the counties of NI are reunified proper with the rest of the Republic.

The only question is what happens with the die-hard Unionists. There will be a significant number that will not go quietly into the night.

 

[CrazyJoeFevola]

Blind Freddy can see which way it's headed.

Wall to wall SF governments in Ireland and Northern Ireland, coupled with the impacts of Brexit, and in opposition to not just the UK, but also the Conservative Tory government of the UK, and a far less popular Morarch than Liz (as far as the Unionists are concerned).

It's only a matter of time before the counties of NI are reunified proper with the rest of the Republic.

The only question is what happens with the die-hard Unionists. There will be a significant number that will not go quietly into the night.

For sure, after all the blood shed, the Brits will leave. But yeah, there is a reason the UVF and UDA have remained active. On the same token the Provos remain active in the shadows. Despite what they say, when the day comes the 'dissidents' will line up with the Provos (some say the dissisdent groups have been the Provos recruiting on the sly for the inevitable conflict and all will come together when the day comes). Unification will be bloody. But world support will rightly be with the Irish, so while we will see some tragedy, almost full scale civil war, unification will happen. The Brits will wipe their hands clean of it and the Republican forces will have the support of the world and end it. Will be interesting to see how the Brits deal will an influx of poor loyalist 'refugees'

What will be interesting is the role of the Irish Army. If Sinn Fein are in control of the state, you'd assume they are sent to the front lines to deal with the loyalists, because as I said, Britain (Possibly just England and Wales by then) will want nothing to do with it.

 

[Malifice]

What worries me is the friction is so deep that I can't see any unification happening without violence, and I can only see that violence ending via genocide (namely the expulsion of Unionists to the UK).

The feelings are that deeply held there. The conflict is a fundamental part of many peoples identities.

About the only circuit breaker I can see is granting everyone in NI, dual citizenship with the UK and Ireland, along with retaining Ireland/ UK open movement, and for the UK to step in with some kind of sweetener for the Crown loyalists to quiet them down.

 

[Malifice]

Genocide seems very unlikely. Unionists would be such a small portion of the enlargened Republic of Ireland's population there wouldn't much inclination to rub their noses in it.

By 'genocide' I mean expulsion (similar to what happened to the Germans living east of what is the modern State of Germany after WW2.

Not as harsh as what happened to the Germans living in what is now Poland and the Czech republic, but similar in intent if not in implementation.

The sectarian shit is so ingrained in many people in Northern Ireland, and they are highly unlikely to take reunification with Ireland lying down.

 

[CrazyJoeFevola]

Since the GFA anyone either side of the 'border' can hold either or both of the passports, that's a start. I also reckon a united Ireland would have to be a federal Ireland with state type level parliaments for the provinces, Connacht Leinster, Munster and Ulster (With the Ulster parliament being the full 9 provinces of Ulster, not the 6 counties occupied by the Brits. The unionists/loyalists would still hold a bit of a majority there and be able to exercise a bit of autonomy).

At the the end of the day, the Irish forces, be they the conventional army, the various IRAs (which I think will coalesce once the Prod paramilitaries kick off) are not going to ethnic cleanse anyone. The only thoughts of ethnic cleansing on the island have come from loyalist forces. Once the Free State was established post the war of independence the Irish didn't chase the Anglo-Irish out, and they sit at a healthy 10 percent of the population in the Republic, and now consider themselves proudly Irish. The UDA and the UVF will go mental and attempt to cause a reverse troubles, but this time they will have no backing and collusion from the Brits. They'll be beaten quickly. It will then be up to the loyalists of the north to decide to stay where they are or head over the sea. No one will be driving them out. The old breed of the IRA are dead or drinking themselves to death. The Provo Army Council still runs and funds Sinn Fein and maintains a powerful shadow force but the modern breed are too clever to unleash a campaign of revenge once the 32 counties are re-united. We will be looking back on the strategy of the Provo movement from the time of the hunger strikes as one of the greatest, most clever long games ever played one day.

 

[CrazyJoeFevola]

Just to add to the IRAs coalescing comment I made - Yes, the Real/New IRA and the INLA, Oglaigh Na hEireann, CIRA etc. the 'dissidents' if you add them up still have quite a few volunteers, 500-1000 all up if you include those that provide safe houses etc, but they can't act unless authorised by the Provos. I know people close to the situation and even though the Provo IRA now only has a base of maybe 2-300, they've got a secret arms cache they were allowed to keep after the 'decommissioning'. They were allowed to keep it by the Brits so they could maintain control over the dissidents. Yes, Sinn Fein/the Provos signed up to support the coppers in 2007, but it was a two way agreement.

The Brits tacitly allowed them to maintain a discreet military structure to keep the dissidents in fear and under control. The dissidents have the means to carry out a campaign far beyond what they've done so far, but they are still shit scared of the Provos. Any attack they've undertaken has been vetted by the Provos in a quid pro quo arrangement, they let them hit out every once in a while so they keep their base convinced they are fighting a war, in return the Provos/Sinn Fein can condemn them and look more and more part of the mainstream with the violence in the past behind them. If any of the dissidents carried out a non approved action, there would be kneecappings galore.

The other side of this coin is that when the 32 county Republic is inevitably achieved under the terms of the GFA, the Provo forces (they are still recruiting, don't worry about that), will be given free reign to act in defence of Northern nationalists when they inevitably come under attack from the UDA/UVF, but they will be deployed under the name of the dissident groups, who will all of a sudden be powerful as hell. The Provos will be driving it and directing it, while talking peace, love and unity under the Sinn Fein banner that they have control of the country under. Without the Brits to collude with them and no country in the world who would back them, the loyalist paramilitaries would be crushed.

It would then be up to the those who consider themselves loyalists whether they are more loyal to 'Ulster' or to the UK and either stay and try and maintain their Ulster identity or head back to the lands of their ancestors. The great con created by the 'siege' mentality Ulster Unionist leaders perpetuated is that working class loyalists in places like the Shankill or Tiger's Bay etc. think they have more in common with rich Prods than working class Catholics, leading to them devoting themselves to right wing parties like the UUP or now DUP.

I'm waffling on I know and I apologise but to cater to that inbuilt siege mentality and the gerrymander even the NI Labour Party was a prod only party. Another great irony in all this is that the most progressive party to come out of the Unionist side was the PUP, the political wing of the UVF. The first party by a long way in the North to support abortion, active in trade unions and against sectarianism in the workplace and a generally democratic socialist agenda. To me the kind of party that could flourish in a provincial Ulster parliament. But we know how their military wing would react to a UI sadly.

 

[CrazyJoeFevola]

Part of the reason unionists became obsessed with sticking it to nationalists in the North was there were so many nationalists on the 'wrong' side. If they'd been less ambitious with the border it might've played out like the Republic.

It was always going to end in conflict no matter how much of Ulster they took. The 1919 Dail elected was: 73 - Sinn Fein, 22 Irish Unionist, 6 IPP (Soft Irish nationalists who wanted home rule within the UK) and 4 Labour Unionists. The UK kept the 6 counties not because the majority there voted for unionists but because Belfast had all the heavy industry. Now it has none, which is why it wouldn't give a toss if they left. It was established illegally, and has never had any legitimacy.

 

[Frank Bunn]

I was over there recently. Had an amazing experience researching my ancestors. Such friendly people everywhere we went. You would barely notice crossing the border between the Republic and Northern Ireland. I'm pretty sure 99% of people on that island want to put the past behind them and get on with living the best lives for them and their children.

Sinn Fein has shifted towards a fairly populist, leftist view where diversity, equality and respect is ahead of their planning and preparation for constitutional change to facilitate a peaceful, smooth transition to a new and united Ireland. It would be an absolute tragedy for any policies that might result in renewed conflict. Talk of genocide is absolutely insane.

 

[CrazyJoeFevola]

I was over there recently. Had an amazing experience researching my ancestors. Such friendly people everywhere we went. You would barely notice crossing the border between the Republic and Northern Ireland. I'm pretty sure 99% of people on that island want to put the past behind them and get on with living the best lives for them and their children.

Sinn Fein has shifted towards a fairly populist, leftist view where diversity, equality and respect is ahead of their planning and preparation for constitutional change to facilitate a peaceful, smooth transition to a new and united Ireland. It would be an absolute tragedy for any policies that might result in renewed conflict. Talk of genocide is absolutely insane.

The Sinn Fein project over the last 50 odd years (masterminded by Adams and McGuinness) will go down as one of the greatest successes in political strategy ever. The only danger of genocide comes from the loyalists in a last stand type situation.

 

[The Warlord]

People in the Republic are voting Shinner to deal with domestic issues, notably the housing crisis and rampant inequality.

A Sinn Fein government in Dublin will do nothing on the National Question in its first two terms, presuming it wins re election

 

[The Warlord]

I still maintain that the North will become ever more a legal grey zone, not quite British, not quite part of the EU, not quite Irish, but enough of all to ensure that the shooting doesn't start again.

Shinners in Leinster House and Stormont will allow for harmonisation of more laws and rules and there may one day be a unification referendum but SF won't go for that until they can be sure they'll win, and that's a long way down the track.

They will have learned from the SNP experience. You need a couple of terms in government to prove you're capable of asking the constitutional question, but when you do, you are throwing yourself on the mercy of the fates.

Indeed, I suspect they'll wait for Scotand to win an independence referendum (which may be never) before going themselves on unification.

Any vote is decades away.

 

[O Grobbecker]

I still maintain that the North will become ever more a legal grey zone, not quite British, not quite part of the EU, not quite Irish, but enough of all to ensure that the shooting doesn't start again.

Shinners in Leinster House and Stormont will allow for harmonisation of more laws and rules and there may one day be a unification referendum but SF won't go for that until they can be sure they'll win, and that's a long way down the track.

They will have learned from the SNP experience. You need a couple of terms in government to prove you're capable of asking the constitutional question, but when you do, you are throwing yourself on the mercy of the fates.

Indeed, I suspect they'll wait for Scotand to win an independence referendum (which may be never) before going themselves on unification.

Any vote is decades away.

I don't know about the Scottish independence bit but the rest I agree with, particularly the bolded bit. The vote must also get up in the Republic, which still entertains great caution about becoming responsible for the Loyalists, historically intransigent. A few years back, a survey in the Republic about accepting unification was only 13 % if it meant the Republic becoming liable for the same level of subsidy as UK now gives to Northern Ireland. On the historical bit and analysis of predispositions
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJJgKfgPyOs

 

[CrazyJoeFevola]

I don't know about the Scottish independence bit but the rest I agree with, particularly the bolded bit. The vote must also get up in the Republic, which still entertains great caution about becoming responsible for the Loyalists, historically intransigent. A few years back, a survey in the Republic about accepting unification was only 13 % if it meant the Republic becoming liable for the same level of subsidy as UK now gives to Northern Ireland. On the historical bit and analysis of predispositions
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJJgKfgPyOs

SF's plan to tax every transaction made by the multinationals who use the Republic's lax laws to avoid tax will generate a shit ton of revenue but still won't scare google and apple off. Govt revenue will be through the roof. 10 years worth of that will allow the Republic to build up an NHS type health system and massively increase public housing stock. That's a start. Will give people confidence that the North can be integrated as such. Also at the end of the day, everyone aside from Fine Gael supporters will probably vote with the heart when it comes to a border poll. All SF and Fianna Failers for sure.

 

[CrazyJoeFevola]

Also yes there will be a massive loyalist revolt, a violent one, but the provos only got rid of about half of their weapons and continue to acquire them. They'll be given to a sudden 'new' powerful armed Republican group to keep the loyalists in check unoffcially. Without the backing of the Brits that they had during the war, outright collusion, they'll be crushed pretty quickly.

 

[O Grobbecker]

SF's plan to tax every transaction made by the multinationals who use the Republic's lax laws to avoid tax will generate a s**t ton of revenue but still won't scare google and apple off. Govt revenue will be through the roof. 10 years worth of that will allow the Republic to build up an NHS type health system and massively increase public housing stock. That's a start. Will give people confidence that the North can be integrated as such. Also at the end of the day, everyone aside from Fine Gael supporters will probably vote with the heart when it comes to a border poll. All SF and Fianna Failers for sure.

You paint a rosy picture for the future, I hope you are right, being a tax haven hasn't hurt. Why would Fine Gael voters vote differently on unification from Fianna Fail ? Your prediction of Provos keeping UDF, Red Hand etc in line would scare the bejaysus out of voters in the Republic, wouldn't it ? .

 

[CrazyJoeFevola]

You paint a rosy picture for the future, I hope you are right, being a tax haven hasn't hurt. Why would Fine Gael voters vote differently on unification from Fianna Fail ? Your prediction of Provos keeping UDF, Red Hand etc in line would scare the bejaysus out of voters in the Republic, wouldn't it ? .

It hasn't hurt, but the benefits haven't been passed on to the people. The next government will ensure it will. As for the Blueshirts (Fine Gael), they were literally formed from assorted groupings that have simply accepted partition. Fianna Fail were formed as a nationalist party, and were to the extent that some of their ministers were sourcing arms for the provos in the early days of the troubles.

Someone is going to have to protect the nationalist community in the north (who will be a majority by that stage) and the arms will come from the provos no doubt, they just won't be used under their name. It won't be the INLA, ONH, the Contos, the Reals or the New IRA or whatever they are calling themselves now, but a new force will emerge quickly from the shadows to deal with the UDA, UVF and the RHC etc. They've more or less just got a few handguns between themselves and no explosives or bomb making know how. Additionally, they find it very hard to source weapons and are short on money. The provo cache is still massive and will be passed on to a new protective force IMO, the wealth of the Provo movement is estimated at 400 million Euro - loyalists won't be able to compete with whatever force emerges. Will be messy but unification was never going to be without mess.

 

[O Grobbecker]

It hasn't hurt, but the benefits haven't been passed on to the people. The next government will ensure it will. As for the Blueshirts (Fine Gael), they were literally formed from assorted groupings that have simply accepted partition. Fianna Fail were formed as a nationalist party, and were to the extent that some of their ministers were sourcing arms for the provos in the early days of the troubles.

Someone is going to have to protect the nationalist community in the north (who will be a majority by that stage) and the arms will come from the provos no doubt, they just won't be used under their name. It won't be the INLA, ONH, the Contos, the Reals or the New IRA or whatever they are calling themselves now, but a new force will emerge quickly from the shadows to deal with the UDA, UVF and the RHC etc. They've more or less just got a few handguns between themselves and no explosives or bomb making know how. Additionally, they find it very hard to source weapons and are short on money. The provo cache is still massive and will be passed on to a new protective force IMO, the wealth of the Provo movement is estimated at 400 million Euro - loyalists won't be able to compete with whatever force emerges. Will be messy but unification was never going to be without mess.

Ah, I should have been able to work it out, political descendants of the Big Fellow. Is your poor opinion of Fine Gael just because your grandfather fought with De Valera or something that's happening contemporaneously ? I still reckon that if there's even a hint of return of the Troubles, the Republic will vote No, that's based upon personal conversations with blokes in a pub in Dublin, Easter 2016; a family in Meath in 2021 by skype and reading since.

 

[Schneebly11]

Also yes there will be a massive loyalist revolt, a violent one, but the provos only got rid of about half of their weapons and continue to acquire them. They'll be given to a sudden 'new' powerful armed Republican group to keep the loyalists in check unoffcially. Without the backing of the Brits that they had during the war, outright collusion, they'll be crushed pretty quickly.

A lot of those Loyalist extremist groups were actually off duty UK soldiers changing into civilian clothes at night and joining the UDA/UVF to commit murders:

Operation Banner - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

They also supplied those groups with intelligence, weapons and funding.

One would imagine without that support (the current UK military presence in NI is a skeleton brigade which presumably would be withdrawn in reunification) the Protestant groups would fold quicker than yesterday’s laundry.

 

[O Grobbecker]

A lot of those Loyalist extremist groups were actually off duty UK soldiers changing into civilian clothes at night and joining the UDA/UVF to commit murders:

Operation Banner - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

They also supplied those groups with intelligence, weapons and funding.

One would imagine without that support (the current UK military presence in NI is a skeleton brigade which presumably would be withdrawn in reunification) the Protestant groups would fold quicker than yesterday’s laundry.

The Loyalists were prepared to take on the British Army, according to Carson, in enforcement of Home Rule in 1914. Alright, it's said that the Army would have refused to enforce Home Rule against them but the fact is that that lot have proved to be as intransigent as is possible. Pardon my naivetee, is that right ? Brit soldiers were prod extremists' gun men ?

 

[CrazyJoeFevola]

Yeah, in 1914 they were prepared to take on the Brits but the troubles was different. So much crossover between the Brits and the loyalists as mentioned. The double membership of security forces and loyalist mobs and MI5 passing on info to the loyalism scum. And as mentioned, come independence, without that crossover they will fold quicker than a table a wrestler has been thrown into when the secret weapons caches are unleashed and the Brits aren't there to help them.

 

[O Grobbecker]

Yeah, in 1914 they were prepared to take on the Brits but the troubles was different. So much crossover between the Brits and the loyalists as mentioned. The double membership of security forces and loyalist mobs and MI5 passing on info to the loyalism scum. And as mentioned, come independence, without that crossover they will fold quicker than a table a wrestler has been thrown into when the secret weapons caches are unleashed and the Brits aren't there to help them.

Thankyou, D2P, I'm not completely naive, though. The Army was sent in, by Westminster, to separate the warring factions and to protect Nationalist women and children under attack. They ended up taking sides, ergo Bloody Friday. That's a far cry from off duty tommies taking up arms, though. That's a generation ago. Consistently since the mid 70s, the populace of the Republic regard the "occupied northeast" inhabitants as not worth the trouble. It's fine for we 3rd and 4th gen Australians to hanker United Ireland but we don't live there.

 

[CrazyJoeFevola]

Thankyou, D2P, I'm not completely naive, though. The Army was sent in, by Westminster, to separate the warring factions and to protect Nationalist women and children under attack. They ended up taking sides, ergo Bloody Friday. That's a far cry from off duty tommies taking up arms, though. That's a generation ago. Consistently since the mid 70s, the populace of the Republic regard the "occupied northeast" inhabitants as not worth the trouble. It's fine for we 3rd and 4th gen Australians to hanker United Ireland but we don't live there.

Yeah for sure they were welcomed by the nationalists initially, who were constantly under siege from loyalist mobs literally trying to ethnic cleanse them all over to Donegal, but as you said that didn't last long due to them ignoring their remit and instead trying to hunt down the IRA who were protecting their community. Btw I know plenty of people from Ireland, from all political persuasions both currently over there, and a few working here and at least 80 percent of them would like to see their nation whole again. That 20 percent mostly being from Fine Gael families

 

[O Grobbecker]

Yeah for sure they were welcomed by the nationalists initially, who were constantly under siege from loyalist mobs literally trying to ethnic cleanse them all over to Donegal, but as you said that didn't last long due to them ignoring their remit and instead trying to hunt down the IRA who were protecting their community. Btw I know plenty of people from Ireland, from all political persuasions both currently over there, and a few working here and at least 80 percent of them would like to see their nation whole again. That 20 percent mostly being from Fine Gael families

Thanks, mate. We O'MulGrobbecker's were Queenslanders, South Australians, Victorians then Australians 60 years plus before Home Rule and the Easter Uprising (according to Dad, one of my great unkles went back). The Troubles are in the past, though, I saw a a display of babies clothes include a babies' bib endorsed with "No Surrender" in the baby shop on the Shankill Road in 2016. Ireland can become united and include the prods, they don't have to keep killing each other.

 

[CrazyJoeFevola]

Thanks, mate. We O'MulGrobbecker's were Queenslanders, South Australians, Victorians then Australians 60 years plus before Home Rule and the Easter Uprising (according to Dad, one of my great unkles went back). The Troubles are in the past, though, I saw a a display of babies clothes include a babies' bib endorsed with "No Surrender" in the baby shop on the Shankill Road in 2016. Ireland can become united and include the prods, they don't have to keep killing each other.

The difference between Southern prods and Northern prods really is quite astounding. Apart from a bit of shit stirring and the Catholic Church being given primacy the Free State really didn't discriminate against them and as a whole they are proudly Irish despite their mostly Anglo heritage. Kinda the reverse of what happened up north. Also, sorry if my (Wolfe) tone has been a bit condescending, I sometimes get like that without realising.