The impending Sinn Fein government in the next Irish Republic election, 2025.

[O Grobbecker]

The difference between Southern prods and Northern prods really is quite astounding. Apart from a bit of s**t stirring and the Catholic Church being given primacy the Free State really didn't discriminate against them and as a whole they are proudly Irish despite their mostly Anglo heritage. Kinda the reverse of what happened up north. Also, sorry if my (Wolfe) tone has been a bit condescending, I sometimes get like that without realising.

No worries, mate. I love it when I run into someone who cares.

My unkles, dad's stories, the Parish priests; the nuns who taught me in primary school; the brothers who grew up in the Depression times, the Kiss of Peace in Letterkenny, he could have been the bloke I did the same thing with a week before in Melbourne. Stick fat, mate, we'll get our United Ireland.

 

[O Grobbecker]

Whilst I like to think that the cream of Ireland are already in Australia, the lads have done well in the absence of our antecendants, an Aucrainbean n h'Eirannn.

 

[CrazyJoeFevola]

Whilst I like to think that the cream of Ireland are already in Australia, the lads have done well in the absence of our antecendants, an Aucrainbean n h'Eirannn.

Haha while I agree many talented people of Irish stock are here, the US, England or Scotland etc. largely due to the actions of the English during the plantations, sending activists out on the convict boats and the famine more accurately labelled a genocide, they've got some fine men and women over there. Particularly the ones who took the fight to the Brits and made it out alive. If not for these factors Ireland's population would probably be about the same as ours, and a European powerhouse.

 

[O Grobbecker]

Haha while I agree many talented people of Irish stock are here, the US, England or Scotland etc. largely due to the actions of the English during the plantations, sending activists out on the convict boats and the famine more accurately labelled a genocide, they've got some fine men and women over there. Particularly the ones who took the fight to the Brits and made it out alive. If not for these factors Ireland's population would probably be about the same as ours, and a European powerhouse.

Ireland did well out of the EU, back in the days when Europe thought little of those who stayed. Fintan O'Toole's thoughts might interest you.

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He gave a talk on Ireland's English Question at the University in March 2020, just as the pandemic was setting in, along the lines of

 

[Crankyhawk]

Just to add to the IRAs coalescing comment I made - Yes, the Real/New IRA and the INLA, Oglaigh Na hEireann, CIRA etc. the 'dissidents' if you add them up still have quite a few volunteers, 500-1000 all up if you include those that provide safe houses etc, but they can't act unless authorised by the Provos. I know people close to the situation and even though the Provo IRA now only has a base of maybe 2-300, they've got a secret arms cache they were allowed to keep after the 'decommissioning'. They were allowed to keep it by the Brits so they could maintain control over the dissidents. Yes, Sinn Fein/the Provos signed up to support the coppers in 2007, but it was a two way agreement.

The Brits tacitly allowed them to maintain a discreet military structure to keep the dissidents in fear and under control. The dissidents have the means to carry out a campaign far beyond what they've done so far, but they are still s**t scared of the Provos. Any attack they've undertaken has been vetted by the Provos in a quid pro quo arrangement, they let them hit out every once in a while so they keep their base convinced they are fighting a war, in return the Provos/Sinn Fein can condemn them and look more and more part of the mainstream with the violence in the past behind them. If any of the dissidents carried out a non approved action, there would be kneecappings galore.

The other side of this coin is that when the 32 county Republic is inevitably achieved under the terms of the GFA, the Provo forces (they are still recruiting, don't worry about that), will be given free reign to act in defence of Northern nationalists when they inevitably come under attack from the UDA/UVF, but they will be deployed under the name of the dissident groups, who will all of a sudden be powerful as hell. The Provos will be driving it and directing it, while talking peace, love and unity under the Sinn Fein banner that they have control of the country under. Without the Brits to collude with them and no country in the world who would back them, the loyalist paramilitaries would be crushed.

It would then be up to the those who consider themselves loyalists whether they are more loyal to 'Ulster' or to the UK and either stay and try and maintain their Ulster identity or head back to the lands of their ancestors. The great con created by the 'siege' mentality Ulster Unionist leaders perpetuated is that working class loyalists in places like the Shankill or Tiger's Bay etc. think they have more in common with rich Prods than working class Catholics, leading to them devoting themselves to right wing parties like the UUP or now DUP.

I'm waffling on I know and I apologise but to cater to that inbuilt siege mentality and the gerrymander even the NI Labour Party was a prod only party. Another great irony in all this is that the most progressive party to come out of the Unionist side was the PUP, the political wing of the UVF. The first party by a long way in the North to support abortion, active in trade unions and against sectarianism in the workplace and a generally democratic socialist agenda. To me the kind of party that could flourish in a provincial Ulster parliament. But we know how their military wing would react to a UI sadly.

As someone with very little knowledge of the situation,would economic factors be convincing for the unionists to drop their desire to stay with the (failing) United Kingdom?

 

[CrazyJoeFevola]

As someone with very little knowledge of the situation,would economic factors be convincing for the unionists to drop their desire to stay with the (failing) United Kingdom?

To be honest one of the biggest stumbling points, not only among unionists but among some nationalists - is that the Republic’s health system is awful compared to the UK’s NHS which operates in the occupied six.

Which is where it would take a Sinn Fein led left coalition govt down south to build it up to an acceptable level to sway the amount of people required in a border poll.

 

[O Grobbecker]

To be honest one of the biggest stumbling points, not only among unionists but among some nationalists - is that the Republic’s health system is awful compared to the UK’s NHS which operates in the occupied six.

Which is where it would take a Sinn Fein led left coalition govt down south to build it up to an acceptable level to sway the amount of people required in a border poll.

I can't think of any group, including all those Islamic groups and States like ISIS and Saudi Arabia, as intransigent as the Loyalists. In their current manifestation, nobody wants them, neither the UK nor the Republic and they won't accept autonomy. They say they are Brits, even though the Brits say they don't want them. I can't blame either of the Dial or UK Parliament. With the possible exception of meself, there's no more credible voice than Sinn Fein's
Mary McDonald. She says that it will be new Ireland, not necessarily a descendant from the Proclamation or represented by the Tricolour, but something else. I dips me lid to you, D2P as having better knowledge but for all that I want to see a United Ireland which is united under the Tricolour, espousing the values of the 12 martyrs and the Proclamation. If that must change then recognise that among my great grand unkles are those who went back after news of the Uprising became available. Let the descendants of those who remained include Australasia in any new Constitution.

 

[CrazyJoeFevola]

I can't think of any group, including all those Islamic groups and States like ISIS and Saudi Arabia, as intransigent as the Loyalists. In their current manifestation, nobody wants them, neither the UK nor the Republic and they won't accept autonomy. They say they are Brits, even though the Brits say they don't want them. I can't blame either of the Dial or UK Parliament. With the possible exception of meself, there's no more credible voice than Sinn Fein's
Mary McDonald. She says that it will be new Ireland, not necessarily a descendant from the Proclamation or represented by the Tricolour, but something else. I dips me lid to you, D2P as having better knowledge but for all that I want to see a United Ireland which is united under the Tricolour, espousing the values of the 12 martyrs and the Proclamation. If that must change then recognise that among my great grand unkles are those who went back after news of the Uprising became available. Let the descendants of those who remained include Australasia in any new Constitution.

It’s unfortunate the loyalist reprobates have managed to turn the tricolour into a divisive flag, even though it literally represents equality and peace between the green and the orange. But it is what it is. They’ll probably need a new flag, and anthem, which is sad as they are both great. But if it gets it over the line so be it.

In addition I think it will have to be a federal republic (parliaments for each of the 4 provinces) - which was ironically part of Ruari O’Bradaigh’s Eire Nua platform which Adam’s and co opposed.

As you alluded to, I do think the all island republic will happen sooner rather than later, there will be violent backlash from the loyalists, there will be compromises, but it will happen.

 

[O Grobbecker]

It’s unfortunate the loyalist reprobates have managed to turn the tricolour into a divisive flag, even though it literally represents equality and peace between the green and the orange. But it is what it is. They’ll probably need a new flag, and anthem, which is sad as they are both great. But if it gets it over the line so be it.

In addition I think it will have to be a federal republic (parliaments for each of the 4 provinces) - which was ironically part of Ruari O’Bradaigh’s Eire Nua platform which Adam’s and co opposed.

As you alluded to, I do think the all island republic will happen sooner rather than later, there will be violent backlash from the loyalists, there will be compromises, but it will happen.

A federation of the 4 provinces should solve the Loyalist issue in theory but Campbell won't accept it, the existential DUP position is to remain part of Britain. I don't know how that issue can be resolved. What might give us an insight might be the revised Protocol and how DUP uses the Stormont Brake. I don't claim to be over the detail but, as I understand it, the Brake has the potential to bring UK Parliament into greater influence in Northern Ireland, which won't please Nationalists and whether the Protocol will be sufficiently accepted by DUP to enable government to be resumed.

 

[fishardansin]

Good luck to Sinn Fein. I really hope the Irish can finally rid themselves of the English scum.

 

[O Grobbecker]

Good luck to Sinn Fein. I really hope the Irish can finally rid themselves of the English scum.

Relations between Eire and UK are very good, now. The governments are co operative, UK is Ireland's 3rd top trading partner, the RAF is committed to provision of aerial security over Ireland and among the citizens of both countries there is little emnity, I was in Dublin during Easter 2016, the centenary of the Uprising. The parade, re enactments, exhibitions in St Stephen's Green etc dominated the city but there was absolutely no condemnation of Britain. The sentiment was of appreciation for and celebration of the sacrifice of the Volunteers, nary a word about the British. That's the spirit of a United Ireland, to be their own whole nation for its own value, not to spite an ancient oppressor. Exploitive English absentee landlords on great estates, Charles Trevelyan, the Black and Tans, scum, all gone now.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

'A new dawn': Sinn Féin's Michelle O'Neill makes history in Northern Ireland

But at the same time, Sinn Fein have dropped a little in the polls down south, losing support to independents based on people's gripes with immigration amongst other issues. The parties of government haven't gained at SFs expense though.

Support for Sinn Féin continues to slide in latest poll

Support for Sinn Féin is continuing to slide, with the party down four points in two months, according to the latest opinion poll.

m.independent.ie