The Inevitable War - Keating goes bang

[Baltimore Jack]

The Phillippines invited them because China just stole a bunch of islands and territory that the Phillippines had claim to.

What should the US have done with the Phillippines request for support/defence in response to recent Chinese projection of power in the SCS? Just said, "suck it up"?

Philippine was an American colony and achieved independence with permission. Therefore Americans drew the national border of Philippines in 1946.

The territory of the Philippines is set by a series of international treaties. Those treaties include the Treaty of Paris (1898), the Treaty of Washington (1900), and the Treaty between Great Britain and the United States (1930). All have stated clearly the west limit of the Philippine territory is 118 degrees east longitude.

USA has reaffirmed the legal effects of the above-mentioned treaties in the 1946 Treaty of General Relations between the United States of America and the Republic of the Philippines, the 1952 US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, the 1961 Republic Act No.3046 and the 1968 Republic Act No.5446.

Therefore it is clear that China did not steal any islands from Philippines. It is Philippines who stole eight islands from China, because
1) all of invasion happened after 1946, and
2) all of the eight disputed islands lie west of 118 degrees.

So what about 200 EEZ? First of all UNCLOS is all about sea area and has nothing to do with island ownership.
Secondly all Chinese island claims predate 1982 UNCLOS, which precludes Philippines from claiming them based on UNCLOS.

 

[Saint]

Philippine was an American colony and achieved independence with permission. Therefore Americans drew the national border of Philippines in 1946.

The territory of the Philippines is set by a series of international treaties. Those treaties include the Treaty of Paris (1898), the Treaty of Washington (1900), and the Treaty between Great Britain and the United States (1930). All have stated clearly the west limit of the Philippine territory is 118 degrees east longitude.

USA has reaffirmed the legal effects of the above-mentioned treaties in the 1946 Treaty of General Relations between the United States of America and the Republic of the Philippines, the 1952 US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, the 1961 Republic Act No.3046 and the 1968 Republic Act No.5446.

Therefore it is clear that China did not steal any islands from Philippines. It is Philippines who stole eight islands from China, because
1) all of invasion happened after 1946, and
2) all of the eight disputed islands lie west of 118 degrees.

So what about 200 EEZ? First of all UNCLOS is all about sea area and has nothing to do with island ownership.
Secondly all Chinese island claims predate 1982 UNCLOS, which precludes Philippines from claiming them based on UNCLOS.

We could go forever on these claims, but there are 6 nations with claims on them and none of them appear to have ever accepted them as being the territory of another. So it was seen as an aggressive move when China started to build airbases on them, since nobody else recognises their claims and there are 5 other nations with claims of various legitimacy.

The Philippines considered them Res Nullius as part of those agreements so their claims are subsequent to those agreements.

Vietnam have clearly the strongest claims, as even Chinese history places them as part of the state of China which is now northern Vietnam.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

The relentless drive to war against China goes on. There is no longer any pretence that China is in the US sights and so Australia is prepared to spend whatever it takes to prove its fealty to Washington. No military outlay is too much, no threat to our economic future too risky for the Australian government. Warmongers, ‘experts’ such as the infamous Australian Strategic Policy Institute, a few too many academics, and a pompous and self-righteous media all work to ensure that the imagined threat becomes reality.

War, we are told could come within a very few years. China, we are told, is about to invade Taiwan. War, we are told, would mean an attack on Australia by China. We are told many things but rarely the truth. The truth has been airbrushed away. Today only 15 per cent of the US population do not consider China to be the enemy. The figure for Australia is no different. The propaganda machine has done its work

The threat of war and the role of the propaganda machine - Pearls and Irritations

The relentless drive to war against China goes on. There is no longer any pretence that China is in the US sights.

johnmenadue.com

 

[Saint]

The relentless drive to war against China goes on. There is no longer any pretence that China is in the US sights and so Australia is prepared to spend whatever it takes to prove its fealty to Washington. No military outlay is too much, no threat to our economic future too risky for the Australian government. Warmongers, ‘experts’ such as the infamous Australian Strategic Policy Institute, a few too many academics, and a pompous and self-righteous media all work to ensure that the imagined threat becomes reality.

War, we are told could come within a very few years. China, we are told, is about to invade Taiwan. War, we are told, would mean an attack on Australia by China. We are told many things but rarely the truth. The truth has been airbrushed away. Today only 15 per cent of the US population do not consider China to be the enemy. The figure for Australia is no different. The propaganda machine has done its work

The threat of war and the role of the propaganda machine - Pearls and Irritations

The relentless drive to war against China goes on. There is no longer any pretence that China is in the US sights.

johnmenadue.com

Great, we'll all pretend humans have evolved to the point that we're above war and it'll never happen. And then when it does, like it did in Ukraine, the free-world will be f'd.

Sooo many people go broke or die over-estimating the intelligence and good-will of other people.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Great, we'll all pretend humans have evolved to the point that we're above war and it'll never happen. And then when it does, like it did in Ukraine, the free-world will be f'd.

Sooo many people go broke or die over-estimating the intelligence and good-will of other people.

Just relax man, you'll get your war

 

[Saint]

Just relax man, you'll get your war

It seems like you believe that the only way to avoid a war is to never buy any defence equipment and just hope nothing bad happens.

Just relax man, you'll get your totalitarianism.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

It seems like you believe that the only way to avoid a war is to never buy any defence equipment and just hope nothing bad happens.

Just relax man, you'll get your totalitarianism.

You may well be correct

But only one of us will still be breathing

 

[Saint]

You may well be correct

But only one of us will still be breathing

More people die of oppression of totalitarian regimes than from the wars against them.

I'd rather be stationed on the front-line in Taiwan than be an Uighur in a concentration camp.

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

I think it's pretty clear from the timelines of this project that the Australian Govt is not preparing for an imminent Chinese invasion of Australia or even of our nearby allies.

I'm also completely unclear as to how, given China's history of invading neighbours (Tibet, Vietnam, SCS, South Korea) and promise to invade Taiwan, that suggesting China is going to invade anyone is a "ridiculous step forward". It's an entirely foreseeable occurrence and we should be prepared for it to happen, without getting carried away.

If I made you bet your house and Super on China invading another country or not in the next 30 years, how certain would you be? Who will be the next 2-3 leaders after Xi and how will they maintain/sustain their hold on power?

The list of countries worried about China is practically a list of all of our trading partners and amount to a greater amount of trade than China (hence why it's not actually that stupid to want to protect our shipping lanes from China). If China and Vietnam have another war, we'd want to protect our trade routes to our other trading partners in the area, including Vietnam (who I'm assuming wouldn't be the aggressor).

Nah, China has never been a hawkisk nation. Tibet and other small countries are disputed small fry regions.
Japan's history is far far worse and so is western nations so don't exargerate.

 

[kranky al]

Not an inevitable war.

"Simon Crean disputes the 'inevitability of there being a war' with China
Simon Crean does believe that Paul Keating raised some important questions though, which he says was lost in the “personality attacks”.

I think that people want to be ensured that our security is in the best possible hands, and that there’s openness about the basis upon which we go forward.

I think that there is concern about the China under the leadership of President Xi [Jinping], but that doesn’t mean the inevitability of a war. And I find that surprising, that too often those concerns are then extrapolated to the inevitability of there being a war. When I think history in terms of China’s track record suggests otherwise.

… I think that China as a growing power is obviously extending. It’s not just economic strength, its military strength, it sees itself as an important power in the region.

But to suggest that it’s going to invade anyone, I think, is just a ridiculous step forward. And yet … that seems to be the premise on which subsequent questions are posed."

*Continues to ignore largest peacetime military buildup in human history.

Australia has been the target of Chinese efforts over the past several years to weaken Australia's alliance with the United States by exploiting its position as Australia’s leading trade partner and meddling in the Australian political system through its foreign interference campaign. When Australia stood up for itself against China—banning Chinese equipment from Australian 5G telecom equipment, passing legislation to counter foreign interference attempts, and requiring the registration of all who lobby on behalf of foreign governments, including national security as a criterion in its foreign investment reviews, and calling for an independent investigation of the origin and causes of the Covid-19 pandemic—China reacted with a series of restrictions on Australian exports to China, a refusal to meet (or even talk to) any Australian government officials, and threatened for more retaliatory actions. Indeed, the Chinese embassy in Canberra gave the media a list of 14 issues that Australia was required to unilaterally remedy to reverse these ”punishments.” If implemented, these demands directly undermine such basic Australian principles as freedom of the press, restrict parliamentary debate, and threaten academic freedom.

This is the country you are shilling for, the country that’s steadily been flexing its muscles and in its own messaging says it will eventually invade Taiwan. The country that’s building multiple Carrier groups and a massive amphibious capacity. The country that’s invaded Vietnam, India, Tibet and The Spratleys.

Perhaps you could call your group *amphibians for peace in our time

 

[#23 Hill]

Nah, China has never been a hawkisk nation. Tibet and other small countries are disputed small fry regions.
Japan's history is far far worse and so is western nations so don't exargerate.

True. Compare the USA's imperialism and meddling in other countries to China's and it's pretty clear who the problem is.

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

The Phillippines invited them because China just stole a bunch of islands and territory that the Phillippines had claim to.

What should the US have done with the Phillippines request for support/defence in response to recent Chinese projection of power in the SCS? Just said, "suck it up"?

Yes , what do want to do, save the world and bring back conscription.
Most hawkish war monger types in Australia are hypocrite monachists claiming England's invasions were all good.
It's xenophobic, racist and ignorant to think China is evil and wants to invade Australia.

 

[kranky al]

Nah, China has never been a hawkisk nation. Tibet and other small countries are disputed small fry regions.
Japan's history is far far worse and so is western nations so don't exargerate.

Amazing how no matter how many times hawkish actions are pointed out to you and you handwave them away.

 

[kranky al]

It's xenophobic, racist and ignorant to think China is evil and wants to invade Australia.

Countries that arbitrarily lock up millions of their own people as well as people under their rule without any fair trial or recourse are what then?

Good guys?

Heres a hint, you wouldnt have to argue this if we were all in china, you could just say all you are saying and none of us on the other side would dare say a word - if they did, it would be deleted and MXi Hammer be STOP GULAG-TIME.

 

[nut]

The biggest threat to the USA is the world saying …. Hang on we are sick of your shit.

But let’s be clear, the US is nothing more than a security firm set up to protect the interest of the 1% .. to protect capitalists and their interest… it’s got nothing to do with peace and democracy.

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

Amazing how no matter how many times hawkish actions are pointed out to you and you handwave them away.

Yeah right. What about Russia?

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

Countries that arbitrarily lock up millions of their own people as well as people under their rule without any fair trial or recourse are what then?

Good guys?

Heres a hint, you wouldnt have to argue this if we were all in china, you could just say all you are saying and none of us on the other side would dare say a word - if they did, it would be deleted and MXi Hammer be STOP GULAG-TIME.

We lock up refugee children and Indigenous children and won't let Amnesty investigate so spare the hyperbole.
There are human rights issues there but they have 1.4 billion people so the figures you quote are a minute percentage.
Besides that, are you saying we prepare for war with China because of their human rights record.
You'll be warring with 100's of countries then.
Start with North Korea.
Make sure you enlist when the war starts also, if you want to encourage a war.

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

It seems like you believe that the only way to avoid a war is to never buy any defence equipment and just hope nothing bad happens.

Just relax man, you'll get your totalitarianism.

Just what the Pacific needs, an arms race and paranoid right wing nutters calling for conscription.
Make sure you enlist digger and get those Chinese bastards.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

We lock up refugee children and Indigenous children and won't let Amnesty investigate so spare the hyperbole.
There are human rights issues there but they have 1.4 billion people so the figures you quote are a minute percentage.
Besides that, are you saying we prepare for war with China because of their human rights record.
You'll be warring with 100's of countries then.
Start with North Korea.
Make sure you enlist when the war starts also, if you want to encourage a war.

Native Americans 100 million wiped out
African Americans 12 million wiped out
Latinos who knows the figure but its well over 1 million
Vietnam 3 million civilians
Iraq 3 million of which 500,000 were children

That is without doing a deep dive

The US are the worst when in comes to human rights

 

[Saint]

Native Americans 100 million wiped out
African Americans 12 million wiped out
Latinos who knows the figure but its well over 1 million
Vietnam 3 million civilians
Iraq 3 million of which 500,000 were children

That is without doing a deep dive

The US are the worst when in comes to human rights

The Great Leap Forward killed tens of millions,

Stalin executed 800,000 in The Great Purge over just a two-year period.

Khmer Rouge killed about 2 million.

Totalitarians killing their own citizens make wars look like fun.

I've made it clear that I'm not worried about being in a war with China, I'm worried about China enslaving more of their neighbours.

It's the same reason why Ukrainians are fighting their war. They don't like war, but they're signing up because they'd prefer to fight for the chance of survival than to submit to a more likely death under Russian rule.

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

The Great Leap Forward killed tens of millions,

Stalin executed 800,000 in The Great Purge over just a two-year period.

Khmer Rouge killed about 2 million.

Totalitarians killing their own citizens make wars look like fun.

I've made it clear that I'm not worried about being in a war with China, I'm worried about China enslaving more of their neighbours.

It's the same reason why Ukrainians are fighting their war. They don't like war, but they're signing up because they'd prefer to fight for the chance of survival than to submit to a more likely death under Russian rule.

Again you not taking population size in. They have 1.4 billion people.
The nazis killed 6 millionn Jews, why not invade Germany again.
China dorsn't enslave people in other countries, that was your ancestors doing that.

 

[kranky al]

We lock up refugee children and Indigenous children and won't let Amnesty investigate so spare the hyperbole.
There are human rights issues there but they have 1.4 billion people so the figures you quote are a minute percentage.
Besides that, are you saying we prepare for war with China because of their human rights record.
You'll be warring with 100's of countries then.
Start with North Korea.
Make sure you enlist when the war starts also, if you want to encourage a war.

1) Again and again you gloss over things that dont suit your narrative.

Again and again ive specified im not in favour of a war with China, ive specified we should be strong enough militarily that China cant effectively threaten us.

2) ive already signed on that dotted line that says up to and including my life and would have zero hesitation in doing so again in a defensive war.

3) glossing over people getting a bullet in the head and the family getting a bilk for the bullet as well as mass incarceration and torture. Im happy for you to do that all day, im not arguing to change your mind, that’s set in stone. Im arguing to affect the people who are reading thiis’ opinion.

You thrashing around like a fish on a hook trying to gloss over exactly how big of an aggressive expansionist imperialist country china is when its pretty clear to anyone with half a brain makes my argument for me.

 

[kranky al]

Again you not taking population size in. They have 1.4 billion people.
The nazis killed 6 millionn Jews, why not invade Germany again.
China dorsn't enslave people in other countries, that was your ancestors doing that.

We did that.

Now germany threatens and has invaded noone.

China - Vietnam, tibet, india. Spratlys.

Ask the uighurs about enslavement or the political prisoners used for organ transplants.

As for the concept that killing millions is ok because its only a small percentage….. righteo mrs xi

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

WARMONGERING IN THE AUSTRALIAN DEFENCE ESTABLISHMENT

The Red Alert exercise is yet another dangerous exercise in the manufacturing of consent for war, an amorally bankrupt exercise that will sideline peaceful approaches. Again, Australian personnel and citizens will find themselves perishing in conflicts at the behest of an insensible hegemon.
Leading the gang of five is Peter Jennings, who has had an unshakeable red-under-the-bed fantasy for years. A former deputy secretary for strategy in the Australian Defence Department who steered the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) for a decade (that’s Canberra’s revolving door for you), Jennings is adamant and steely: ‘As I think of a conflict over Taiwan, what I’m thinking about is something that very quickly grows in scale and location’.

Warmongering in the Australian Defence Establishment – Arena

Critical * Radical * Australia * Earth

arena.org.au

 

[Saint]

Again you not taking population size in. They have 1.4 billion people.
The nazis killed 6 millionn Jews, why not invade Germany again.
China dorsn't enslave people in other countries, that was your ancestors doing that.

And now, the monarchies, tribal rulers, despots and other assorted totalitarians enslaving other countries have been replaced with democracy.

Every culture has a history of forms of colonialism and conquest. Claiming one person or anothers' ancestors has a longer history of it serves no purpose.

What matters is that China has a system which today is enabling the enslavement of part of their own people, ethnic cleansing of many areas and threatening neighbours. They're feared by nearly all of their neighbours, for good reason. And a communal defence amongst smaller pacific nations is the right way to defend against their aggressive posturing.

Worth noting that this would also serve as a counter-balance to the US. For example, if the US were taken over by totalitarians and start aggressive posturing and threats of invasion, then China along with these Pacific partners could equally form a counter-balance to them as they're doing to China.