Analysis The mental ineptitude against so called "lesser" sides & general mediocrity of EFC (Since 2005)

[Macca18]

Let's try and have a sensible analysis of some of the reasons our club has been unable to win many of the so called "winnable" games since our last finals victory (2004).

Below is a list of the games (37) where our club has started "favourites" (or equal favourites) against sides of similar ladder position or worse and have lost. There are also many other examples (15+) where we have started favourites (or equal favourites) and have won by unexpectedly (for some) small margins. Some people label this typical "Essington" syndrome, but whatever you call it... it's a serious psychological problem that has gripped the club for over a decade now.

Now of course we have had some very memorable (and unexpected) victories during this period as well against some highly rated opponents (like every other club) but they are well and truly outnumbered by the lacklustre losses... again something that every other club also experiences but not to the scale of Essendon.

Many are criticised (and fair enough) for their lack of positivity prior to fixtures such as today (18th placed Western Bulldogs) but the statistics make for very poor reading as a lover of this club, as many of you are. Many will also point to us fielding many mid to lower table teams during this period (and also the drugs saga)... but the problem has also been prevalent during some of our 'better' years.

So... is it...
- The club cannot handle the pressure of being favourites?
- Underrating our opponents?
- Getting too ahead of ourselves after a good win or decent run of form?
- Overrated list?
- Mediocre midfield throughout this period?
- Poor coaching?
- Poor preparation?
- Egos?
- Other?
- All of the above?

Apart from obvious and natural improvement, how can we as a club improve in this area?

Please see the following list of examples...

2005:
- R2 vs Carlton @ MCG (4 point loss to eventual wooden spooners after leading by 28 points)
- R6 vs Brisbane @ ES (48 point loss at home to then bottom of the ladder, Brisbane)
- R20 vs Hawthorn @ MCG (13 point loss to then 14th placed Hawthorn)

2006:
- R7 vs Carlton @ MCG (33 point loss to eventual wooden spooners)
- R9 vs Port Adelaide @ ES (60 point loss at home to then 15th placed Port Adelaide)
- R16 vs Carlton @ MCG (Draw to eventual wooden spooners after leading by 12 points in the final two minutes)
- R20 vs Hawthorn @ ES (18 point loss to then 14th placed Hawthorn after trailing by 61 points at Half Time)

2007:
- R3 vs Carlton @ MCG (3 point loss to eventual 15th placed team after leading by 48 points at Half Time)
- R19 vs Fremantle @ Subiaco (63 point loss to 13th placed team)
- R21 vs Richmond @ MCG (27 point loss to eventual wooden spooners)

2008:
- R19 vs West Coast @ Subiaco (10 point loss to 15th placed team)

2009:
- R4 vs North Melbourne @ ES (12 point loss to then 12th placed team)
- R17 vs Richmond @ MCG (5 point loss to then 15th placed team)
- R18 vs West Coast @ Subiaco (27 point loss to then 14th placed team)
- R21 vs Fremantle @ Subiaco (54 point loss to then 15th placed team)

2010:
- R4 vs West Coast @ Subiaco (23 point loss to then 14th placed team and eventual wooden spooners)
- R14 vs Adelaide @ AAMI (84 point loss to then 14th placed team)
- R15 vs Melbourne @ MCG (19 point loss to then 14th placed team)
- R16 vs West Coast @ ES (32 point loss to then 16th placed team and eventual wooden spooners)
- R21 vs Brisbane @ ES (27 point loss to then 14th placed team)

2011:
- R11 vs Melbourne @ MCG (33 point loss to eventual 13th placed Melbourne, a team that had been thrashed in their previous three games)

2012:
- R10 vs Melbourne @ MCG (6 point loss to then 17th placed Melbourne who were winless with a percentage of 51.8%, we started the game in 2nd position)
- R22 vs Richmond @ MCG (45 point loss to eventual 12th placed Richmond)

2013:
- R8 vs Brisbane @ ES (8 point loss to then 15th placed Brisbane)
- R20 vs West Coast @ ES (53 point loss to eventual 13th placed West Coast)

2014:
- R5 vs St Kilda @ ES (16 point loss to eventual wooden spooners St Kilda)
- R13 vs Melbourne @ MCG (1 point loss to eventual 17th placed Melbourne after leading by 24 points in the second half)
- R23 vs Carlton @ MCG (Draw against 13th placed Carlton)

2015:
- R10 vs Geelong @ ES (Goalless at Half Time against 12th placed Geelong, who kicked the first 10 goals of the game in an eventual 69 point loss)
- R14 vs St Kilda @ ES (110 point loss against 13th placed St Kilda)
- R21 vs Gold Coast @ MS (2 point loss to 16th placed Gold Coast)

2016:
- Irrelevant due to player bans and finishing 18th

2017:
- R3 vs Carlton @ MCG (15 point loss to winless 16th placed Carlton)
- R7 vs Fremantle @ Subiaco (37 point loss to 11th placed Fremantle after leading by 19 points in the second half)
- R14 vs Sydney @ SCG (1 point loss to then 12th placed Sydney after leading by 19 points with 4 minutes to go)
- R15 vs Brisbane @ ES (8 point loss to then 18th placed & eventual wooden spooner Brisbane after leading by 20 points in the final quarter)

2018:
- R2 vs Fremantle @ Subiaco (16 point loss to then 17th placed side)
- R3 vs Western Bulldogs @ ES (21 point loss to then winless 18th placed side with a percentage of 47.6%)

Look forward to reading your responses.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

I was about to start a tread but seems like it fits here.

My theory doesn’t go that far back but rather is the last five years or so.

Simply: we’re headcases. A mess emotionally.

The saga gave us a permanent siege mentality that got us up for every game. 2013 was the peak of it and was also our best year in recent times.

Now that’s it’s all over, the normalcy of week to week footy simply doesn’t do it for them. They don’t get fired up for it. It’s like a permanent emotional letdown.

The only time they can summon something is when there’s something that allows them, in some small way, to recreate that “us against the world” feeling. Going into a game as underdogs. Playing a top team. Being a fair way down during a game and having to fight back from against the wall. A game with a lot of heat in it physically etc. The efforts of 2016 when we weren’t expected to even win a game.

The week-to-week standard games of footy don’t fire them and the team doesn’t produce regular, required efforts to perform. They need something extra to bring it out. Otherwise the receptors simply aren’t fired.

We’re well off the mark in terms of what motivates and fires the team. We need some sort of mental reset.

 

[JayJ20]

There's just something really wrong with the club. It's almost become a given that we lose these games.

Like always, it basically means that we've already given up a home final, meaning a finals win is unlikely if we even make it. Rinse and repeat every year.

It can't be Woosha because we have Knights, Hird, Bomber and now Woosha who have been unable to get this out of our game. It's like we pass it from one generation to the next

 

[JayJ20]

I was about to start a tread but seems like it fits here.

My theory doesn’t go that far back but rather is the last five years or so.

Simply: we’re headcases. A mess emotionally.

The saga gave us a permanent siege mentality that got us up for every game. 2013 was the peak of it and was also our best year in recent times.

Now that’s it’s all over, the normalcy of week to week footy simply doesn’t do it for them. They don’t get fired up for it. It’s like a permanent emotional letdown.

The only time they can summon something is when there’s something that allows them, in some small way, to recreate that “us against the world” feeling. Going into a game as underdogs. Playing a top team. Being a fair way down during a game and having to fight back from against the wall. A game with a lot of heat in it physically etc. The efforts of 2016 when we weren’t expected to even win a game.

The week-to-week standard games of footy don’t fire them and the team doesn’t produce regular, required efforts to perform. They need something extra to bring it out. Otherwise the receptors simply aren’t fired.

We’re well off the mark in terms of what motivates and fires the team. We need some sort of mental reset.

That's spot on. Was evident last week and this week as well. It's like we wanted to replicate the last quarter thrill of beating Adelaide. Don't show up until the 4th quarter.

 

[The Airing of Grievances]

Basically, it comes down to lack of on field leaders who set and demand that others adhere to standards of commitments. We lost those leaders somewhere back in the mid nough ties and have never recaptured it. There is no tradition of performance in top level, finals type environment. After all, we haven't won a final within the playing lifetime of anyone on our list. Don't mean to be captain negative, but there's your trouble. Wish I had the answer.

 

[calyam]

It's a sympton of being a poor side. Inconsistency is quite normal for poor teams and that is what we have been for the best part of 15 years. I'm sure fans of other clubs in the same situation would express similar frustrations.

 

[schmuttt]

Pardon me for intruding but we have the exact same thing. Players can play champagne football that looks unstoppable, but the problem is the players know this and aren't fully switched on throughout the game. It is kinda like being Hawthorn or Geelong without the achievements and track record, they don't take average to poor teams seriously and expect they only have to play 2 quarters out of 4 to win the game. It almost makes it worse when they have the wins against the top sides because it just reinforces to them the whole 'if we can roll these top sides we don't have to give 100% when we play the shit ones'.

Essendon need a culture changing player and you might just have one in McGrath.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

That's spot on. Was evident last week and this week as well. It's like we wanted to replicate the last quarter thrill of beating Adelaide. Don't show up until the 4th quarter.

Same again today. Biggest crack of the game when 30 points down in the last. Daniher doesn’t do the unforgivable there in the goalsquare and we could well go on and win.

 

[DERO]

I'll start with 2017 as I could not be arsed going back and my memory starts to go a bit...

2017:
- R3 vs Carlton @ MCG (15 point loss to winless 16th placed Carlton)
This was played during a downpour. Skill went out the window. Carlton played the conditions better. It can happen in the wet.
- R7 vs Fremantle @ Subiaco (37 point loss to 11th placed Fremantle after leading by 19 points in the second half)
Any team in the West is a tough proposition. After 9 rounds, Freo were 6 and 3 and had also beaten Richmond (who won the flag) at the MCG. They then had a horrible run with injuries and only won two games from round 10 to the end of the year.
- R14 vs Sydney @ SCG (1 point loss to then 12th placed Sydney after leading by 19 points with 4 minutes to go). This was against a very good Sydney in Sydney (where we rarely win) over a period where Sydney won 12 of 14 games, with the last loss being in the finals. Sydney lost their first 6 and then everything clicked. They only lost 2 games apart from the first 6 in a row at the start of the home and away season.
- R15 vs Brisbane @ ES (8 point loss to then 18th placed & eventual wooden spooner Brisbane after leading by 20 points in the final quarter)
Shit-house loss. No excuses.

2018:
- R2 vs Fremantle @ Subiaco (16 point loss to then 17th placed side) We still don't know how good Freo are but playing them in the West early in the year is always going to be a tough proposition.
- R3 vs Western Bulldogs @ ES (21 point loss to then winless 18th placed side with a percentage of 47.6%) We still don't know how good the bulldogs are. They definitely brought the intensity today.

It s too early to say that we dropped the games because of mental fragility but we have at times definitely dropped one or two here and there that we should have won. Conversely, we have won or two that we probably should have lost.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

It's a sympton of being a poor side. Inconsistency is quite normal for poor teams and that is what we have been for the best part of 15 years. I'm sure fans of other clubs in the same situation would express similar frustrations.

We’re not a poor team anymore. We have a good side with a large amount of otherwise very accomplished players.

It’s all mental application.

 

[JayJ20]

I'll start with 2017 as I could not be arsed going back and my memory starts to go a bit...

2017:
- R3 vs Carlton @ MCG (15 point loss to winless 16th placed Carlton)
This was played during a downpour. Skill went out the window. Carlton played the conditions better. It can happen in the wet.
- R7 vs Fremantle @ Subiaco (37 point loss to 11th placed Fremantle after leading by 19 points in the second half)
Any team in the West is a tough proposition. After 9 rounds, Freo were 6 and 9 and had also beaten Richmond (who won the flag) at the MCG. They then had a horrible run with injuries and only won two games from round 10 to the end of the year.
- R14 vs Sydney @ SCG (1 point loss to then 12th placed Sydney after leading by 19 points with 4 minutes to go). This was against a very good Sydney in Sydney (where we rarely win) over a period where Sydney won 12 of 14 games, with the last loss being in the finals. Sydney lost their first 6 and then everything clicked. They only lost 2 games apart from the first 6 in a row at the start of the home and away season.
- R15 vs Brisbane @ ES (8 point loss to then 18th placed & eventual wooden spooner Brisbane after leading by 20 points in the final quarter)
Shit-house loss. No excuses.

2018:
- R2 vs Fremantle @ Subiaco (16 point loss to then 17th placed side) We still don't know how good Freo are but playing them in the West early in the year is always going to be a tough proposition.
- R3 vs Western Bulldogs @ ES (21 point loss to then winless 18th placed side with a percentage of 47.6%) We still don't know how good the bulldogs are. They definitely brought the intensity today.

It s too early to say that we dropped the games because of mental fragility but we have at times definitely dropped one or two here and there that we should have won. Conversely, we have won or two that we probably should have lost.

Carlton nearly beat us with finals on the line in the return game. Their midfield smashed us again in the dry. Wet weather is just a poor excuse.

Any team in the West is always a tough proposition for Essendon, not everyone else.
St Kilda, Collingwood and Hawthorn, 3 teams that finished below us, beat them there.
Even with their injury run, we nearly lost to them in Melbourne with everything on the line after they got pumped by 104 points back to back by Sydney and Richmond.

Sydney in Sydney was a good effort, but completely undone by the EF performance

 

[calyam]

We’re not a poor team anymore. We have a good side with a large amount of otherwise very accomplished players.

It’s all mental application.

We finished eighth last season, as we have multiple times over the past 15 years. We got squashed in our only final, as we have multiple times over the past 15 years. We have consistently been a middle-of-the-road type team for a long time and we haven't yet broken out of that. Unfortunately, middle-of-the-road teams tend to be inconsistent - often winning as many games as they lose. 'Poor' might be hyperbole but what we view as 'mental ineptitude' is really just the reality of being a side with middling talent. Quite frankly I'm not sure I'd characterise Essendon as any different to other teams who have fluctuated between 7th and 8th and the bottom of the ladder during this period.

Case in point:

Pardon me for intruding but we have the exact same thing. Players can play champagne football that looks unstoppable, but the problem is the players know this and aren't fully switched on throughout the game. It is kinda like being Hawthorn or Geelong without the achievements and track record, they don't take average to poor teams seriously and expect they only have to play 2 quarters out of 4 to win the game. It almost makes it worse when they have the wins against the top sides because it just reinforces to them the whole 'if we can roll these top sides we don't have to give 100% when we play the shit ones'.

Essendon need a culture changing player and you might just have one in McGrath.

 

[DERO]

Carlton nearly beat us with finals on the line in the return game. Their midfield smashed us again in the dry. Wet weather is just a poor excuse.

Any team in the West is always a tough proposition for Essendon, not everyone else.
St Kilda, Collingwood and Hawthorn, 3 teams that finished below us, beat them there.
Even with their injury run, we nearly lost to them in Melbourne with everything on the line after they got pumped by 104 points back to back by Sydney and Richmond.

Sydney in Sydney was a good effort, but completely undone by the EF performance

I guess it comes down to opinion. I have tried the take everything into consideration. It is definitely a negative standpoint. For balance, I'd like to see the games that we probably weren't expected to win put up.

 

[Doss]

Pardon me for intruding but we have the exact same thing. Players can play champagne football that looks unstoppable, but the problem is the players know this and aren't fully switched on throughout the game. It is kinda like being Hawthorn or Geelong without the achievements and track record, they don't take average to poor teams seriously and expect they only have to play 2 quarters out of 4 to win the game. It almost makes it worse when they have the wins against the top sides because it just reinforces to them the whole 'if we can roll these top sides we don't have to give 100% when we play the shit ones'.

Essendon need a culture changing player and you might just have one in McGrath.

Essendon and Melbourne are hauntingly similar in their ability to **** up the seemingly un****upable.

 

[Fear Boner]

No one knows mental fragility like essendon

 

[schmuttt]

Just to add to my previous post, McGrath is (IMO) different to every other player on your list because he just demands the ball and will do anything to win it back. Much like Selwood (Without the ducking and flog attitude) he sets the example for all your other players on the field. Just like Viney at Melbourne you can tell the guy was born to lead the team and fits in from day 1. You just need to fast track him and have the others follow his lead.

 

[The Airing of Grievances]

I guess it comes down to opinion. I have tried the take everything into consideration. It is definitely a negative standpoint. For balance, I'd like to see the games that we probably weren't expected to win put up.

No doubt we have had some great wins over good sides. But they become meaningless when we repeatedly stumble against lesser teams. It's the club's seeming acceptance of this over a more than a decade that fans get peeved with. . How long are we prepared to shrug at this medicrity?

 

[CBombers17]

We need a tipping point of leaders/toughness Just guessing at the ratio but surely if you have more than a third of the best 22 that have the right mentality then you are going to be a lot tougher mentally and win more.

Many of experienced players are soft. Bags is our hardest player - look at our defence in 2000 - nightmare of hardness for the opposition - Solly, Dimma, Johnson, Wallace. Add to that we had players who would crack in on every line - the Longs/Hirds/Lloyds - genuinely hard at the ball players.

I haven't seen a good Essendon unless they are on the margins with aggression.

 

[JayJ20]

I guess it comes down to opinion. I have tried the take everything into consideration. It is definitely a negative standpoint. For balance, I'd like to see the games that we probably weren't expected to win put up.

Yeah but what the OP mentioned is exactly why we can't take the next step as a football club.

We beat Adelaide. We might beat Port. At the moment, those wins are only making up for the losses against Fremantle and Bulldogs instead of making it truly count.
In fact, those wins only prove that this is an attitude problem.

We haven't hosted a final since 2002 and today is exactly the reason why. Beating Adelaide in a magnificent come from behind victory goes to waste when we lose the next two to teams who were smashed the weeks before.

 

[DERO]

No doubt we have had some great wins over good sides. But they become meaningless when we repeatedly stumble against lesser teams. It's the club's seeming acceptance of this over a more than a decade that fans get peeved with. . How long are we prepared to shrug at this medicrity?

We should never shrug at mediocrity! I hate losing too. Shit happens it's footy. I just don't think we are that good...

 

[adsla69k]

I just gave the club a toweling in the WBD Match Review thread but will spare you all a repeat. All we want is a professional team that gives effort. If we cant win playing games but show effort we all walk away still somewhat happy even though it was a loss.

 

[adsla69k]

I thought Zerrett and Joe had formed this young leadership group and were going to be the instigators of the new Bomber Revolution Post Saga?! Well they were both bad today! Good leaders!!!

 

[Macca18]

We need a tipping point of leaders/toughness Just guessing at the ratio but surely if you have more than a third of the best 22 that have the right mentality then you are going to be a lot tougher mentally and win more.

Many of experienced players are soft. Bags is our hardest player - look at our defence in 2000 - nightmare of hardness for the opposition - Solly, Dimma, Johnson, Wallace. Add to that we had players who would crack in on every line - the Longs/Hirds/Lloyds - genuinely hard at the ball players.

I haven't seen a good Essendon unless they are on the margins with aggression.

Absolutely agreed. I was laughed out of another thread a few days ago for suggesting the same thing. Totally taken out of context and suggesting I wanted blood spilt on the field... no! Aggression has nothing to do with knocking blokes out but standing up for your teammates and going hard at the ball!

Where has that been the last couple of years? Bloody nowhere. Our 2016 "top up" team showed more than this lot is at the moment!

 

[adsla69k]

How long has Dodoro been list manager and been at the club in general?

 

[Bombermania]

I agree with the above comments but I actually think there is an additional factor at play. most bottom sides generally lack talent so they focus on keeping a game close, this in effect shuts down Essendon's free flowing running game, wheres top sides while having a defensive style, are more than willing to engage in a free flowing game as they have the confidence that they can outscore anything Essendon throws at them, the big exception to this has been Geelong and Hawthorn which for most of the time since 2005 have dominated us both offensively and defensibly.