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AFLW 2024 - Round 4 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Couple of questions for the Pelican guys...
1) How come Clark isn't in the rotation?
2) Why is Cousins taking as many 3s per game as Klay Thompson?
1) Because he has been poor.
Jameer Nelson, Tony Allen and Darius Miller have all been outperforming him among the bench crew. E'Twaun Moore is a better defender.
2) Because we need him to.
The only way twin towers works is with proper spacing. That means plenty of high post action and pick and pop, as well as simply drawing a defender away.
Our starting group is Rondo, Holiday, Moore/Cunningham, Davis & Boogie. Out of that group I'd rather have the bigs and perhaps Moore shooting the three as opposed to Rondo, Holiday and Cunningham.
1) That's disappointing. I thought he was super solid as a backup in Golden State
2) But over 7 three pointers per game? That's a crazy number for anyone that shoots so poorly.
Re. Boogie, he's not actually a bad three point shooter. Last three years he's taken 710 thees and hits at just under 35%, which is perfectly acceptable.
Trevor Ariza shoots seven threes a game at basically the same clip, ditto Eric Gordon in Houston although he shoots even more.
33%, or making one in three is basically the threshold. If you make 35%, that's 21 points in 20 possessions, or 105 points per 100 possessions, which would qualify you as a middle-of-the-road offensive team.
To be fair on Gordon, he's a 40% guy for the last 3 years, so I can see why 7s per game is fine (even if his numbers are a little down this year). And obviously Houston have a style of play that promotes 3 point shooting.
Also Cousins is a mile better doing other offensive things than those two guys.
Gordon was 37% last year and is 33% this year, so as far as his Houston career goes he's 'technically' an average three point shooter. Of course in reality he's better than 'average', because of the high volume he shoots and the deterrence he provides to the defence.
Let's take Houston as a whole, because they are the three point shooting team par excellence.
Their three point rate is .530, which means they take more threes than twos. Even though they take so many threes, they're hitting at 35.9% as a team, which ranks them 17th for accuracy, so middle of the road.
However their offence is the 2nd best in the league, and the three point shooting is fundamental to this because it opens up the lanes. Houston shoot a scarcely believable 57% inside the arc, and it's no accident - the reason the likes of Harden and Capela are able to be so efficient in the paint is because the defence is forced to stay up on shooters.
Now as regards New Orleans, we shoot 34% on threes as a team, which is bottom five. We are a poor outside shooting team, which is no surprise if you look at our roster.
However like Houston we shoot threes at a higher rate than our accuracy rate would nominally decree we should - a rate of .34, or dead on average. Despite our relatively poor outside shooting, we're still ranked 12th in the league for offensive efficiency, or upper middle class.
The theory is the same as in Houston (and much of the league for that matter), in that you've got to be prepared to take threes in order to open up the paint. For a team who funnels virtually everything through two big guys, this is vitally important.
Cousins spending time at the elbow, high post or behind the three point line gives Davis opportunities to work freely in the paint and opens up lanes for our guards to drive. This is the context within which his shooting rates should be judged, and as I said he's been shooting them at a competent level on sizable volume for long enough that we're comfortable with him shooting them. It's only a problem if he stops taking the ball to the basket, which hasn't happened.
If you were to take someone like Bojan Bogdanovic then the thresholds are different because he does little else and is a defensive liability. Him shooting at 35% from three wouldn't cut it, he needs to be closer to 40% to justify playing time.
Fair enough. You obviously watch them a lot more than me, which makes you a better judge.
I just know that, when Cousins is shooting 3s against the Warriors, I'm not worried. Him working the block or on the inside, getting guys like Green in foul trouble is when I get worried. Him getting lots of free throws, would be my concern when playing against him.
We have a huge correlation with losing in games where the opposition shoots lots of free-throws, so my views probably aren't balanced. Stops our transition game.