The run home

[Zondor]

If we don't/can't win 3, or even just 2, of next 4, we don't deserve to play finals anyway really.

That's very true. An Interestng Month coming up for our beloved NMFC. :stern look

 

[Orange Peanut]

Those referring to us being a top 4 chance, which very winnable games are either of WC or Sydney (and even Bulldogs) dropping to let us in?

I think the mood is more that if we can somehow win all 4, we are still a chance of top 4. It obviously means the bullies have to give up some % and the swans have to drop a game and % as well.
But we aren't out of it yet. ..

 

[Mav]

Back to the topic, Herald Sun thinks we will finish 10th, losing the last 3 games. While it is obvious that our last 3 games will be tough, I can't see us losing all 3. If we can't beat Freo, I'd say we will likely beat the Dogs.

Freo may rest players against us...especially if they best west coast.

 

[Juryduty]

The Herald Sun are idiots, North don't lose 3 in a row and they won't this year.
I think it is more of a case of what they want to happen.


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[Shermanator]

How much rubbish from a a Tigger supporter did I just skip?

Hammy injuries, rolfmao vs lmao, playing legos with Ty in between meaningless posts on BF, yadda yadda yadda, something about top 4 for them in 2055, yadda yadda yadda, he's going over to Dimmers house tonight to play hide the snagga.. :nutshell

 

[boneofshin]

What might work in our favour is the potential that Freo will rest some players for the trip over to play us, particularly if they win the Derby this week and all but tie up top spot. Also, we play the Dogs after they have a 6-day break coming back from West Coast, so hopefully they'll fatigue in that game.

 

[the big lebowski]

So let's say it's round 23 and north have stitched up 5th place with a win against the tigers and at worst 6th place with a loss.

Who would we like to play in the second week of the finals (assuming we make it)? I would say an ANZ final against the swans would be best. Would hate to have to go to Perth in a semi.

In an ideal world we would have this run (getting way ahead of myself I know):

Elimination final - bulldogs (Richmond second choice)

Semi - swans coming off a massive thrashing from freo

Hawthorn - only because they have been the better team but relied on luck to get them through the last 2 prelims.

Meet freo in the granny

 

[grimface_87]

Well our future is still in our hands. It's unlikely we can make it without winning at least one of our last 3. But if we can't win one there's not really any point making it anyway

 

[Horace]

If Geelong win their last three, then we have to win at least one game. The same applies with the GWs, although that might come down to percentage. But as grimface said, if we lose the lot then what's the point.

 

[Contra Mundum]

Sorry about my shit house maths but if we lose all three are we out?

 

[Roo Beauty]

Richmond should be a win. Not confident at all for the next two weeks though.

 

[Thewlis Dish]

The Herald Sun are idiots, North don't lose 3 in a row and they won't this year.
I think it is more of a case of what they want to happen.

Yeah, absolute clowns thinking we might lose to 1st, 4th and 6th.

 

[Juryduty]

Yeah, absolute clowns thinking we might lose to 1st, 4th and 6th.

Sorry for being positive


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[Thewlis Dish]

Sorry for being positive

I don't think we'll lose all three either, but it's not that surprising that the media would tip us to, given we're playing better sides than us right now.

I think we'll beat Richmond and Freo is a 50/50. Dogs however do all the things that we can't handle (manic pressure, quick spread from the contest) and we'll need to slow it down and hopefully beat them with experience.

 

[Juryduty]

I don't think we'll lose all three either, but it's not that surprising that the media would tip us to, given we're playing better sides than us right now.

I think we'll beat Richmond and Freo is a 50/50. Dogs however do all the things that we can't handle (manic pressure, quick spread from the contest) and we'll need to slow it down and hopefully beat them with experience.

If we won 2 I'd be more than happy, strangely enough I'm more confident of beating freo than dogs as their pace is concerning, something we can't match unless we dominate the contested possession.


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[Skarrz]

Looks like Richmond or Bulldogs most likely our first final opponents

 

[sobo]

Lets not stress we will all but cement finals this week with a win against freo.
We are a good side and play really exciting and score quickly when we want to.
We havent clicked yet but one thing that will happen is we will come out firing knowing win we cement finals.
Also we havent challenged a genuine contender and if we win this the roos will definately be in everyones mind.

 

[Event Horizon]

My calculations seem to indicate there is a fairly likely scenario where even 1 win may not be enough. 2 wins and we are safe. 1 win we'd be relying on Geelong losing one or GWS not winning all three and percentage becoming a factor.

 

[Harris 10]

If we can't win 2 of the next 3 I'd be happy for us to sit September out.

 

[Daniltchenko You Beauty]

5th place is massive. Play Swans or Bulldogs in the second week of the finals.

Finish 6th or 7th and it's likely Hawthorn or West Coast in Perth.

 

[Horace]

My calculations seem to indicate there is a fairly likely scenario where even 1 win may not be enough. 2 wins and we are safe. 1 win we'd be relying on Geelong losing one or GWS not winning all three and percentage becoming a factor.

Yes, you are right there EH. If Geelong win all three then we need to win at least 2. I miscalculated earlier when I said we only need to win 1. Same applies with the GWS if they win all three as percentage could have a bearing.

 

[Pres]

My calculations seem to indicate there is a fairly likely scenario where even 1 win may not be enough. 2 wins and we are safe. 1 win we'd be relying on Geelong losing one or GWS not winning all three and percentage becoming a factor.

Not that likely - but possible.

The three key games on the way in are GWS v Syd (Rd 21), Adel v WCE (Rd 22) and Gee v Adel (Rd 23).

Need to start with Syd beating GWS this week - which will pretty much put them out of business.

 

[Pres]

Yes, you are right there EH. If Geelong win all three then we need to win at least 2.

Not if WCE beat Adelaide in Rd 22....

 

[Event Horizon]

Not that likely - but possible.

The three key games on the way in are GWS v Syd (Rd 21), Adel v WCE (Rd 22) and Gee v Adel (Rd 23).

Need to start with Syd beating GWS this week - which will pretty much put them out of business.

And the funny thing is - if we did somehow win all 3, then we would need the Swans to lose to GWS.

 

[Pres]

And the funny thing is - if we did somehow win all 3, then we would need the Swans to lose to GWS.

Correct . It's a hard one this week to work out who to cheer for!