Analysis The run home

[Walshawk]

Assuming strong favourites win, the critical games are ours and Des v GWS Hawks win by more than pIes = WCE V Hawks Thursday night
Hawks win by less than pies = Tigers v Hawks Friday night
swans win Dees win = Hawks v GWS Sat night
Swans win GWS win = Hawks v Dees or Cats depending on % Sat arvo.
If we win, Pies win and WC lose it is Hawks v pIes Friday MCG. I like this one best,

 

[Pessimistic]

Yep Sydney host Hawthorn for a double chance in 4th

Melb host Giants for a home final

 

[GlenferrieOval3122]

Likely scenario is Hawks win and Melb win next weekend = Rich V Haw at the G in week 1 finals which is our perfect result, we can take the Tigers at the G. Doubt we will belt the Swans and Freo look like they have checked out already so Pies should give them a size 11.

 

[arupist]

So, what if, by some strange circumstance, Brisbane beat WCE next week?

 

[TylerDurden]

So, what if, by some strange circumstance, Brisbane beat WCE next week?

If we win, we play the Pies! Massive.

 

[Pessimistic]

So, what if, by some strange circumstance, Brisbane beat WCE next week?

Twilight zone - still one final in sydney one in perth

 

[hawkheart]

Can someone please explain the mad chutzpah to play Richmond week one?

 

[GlenferrieOval3122]

Benefits of playing Richmond in a QF week 1. Home ground in Melb. We love playing at the G and recent form has been great. Will have half the crowd. No shortage of finals experience at the G. We are better now that the round 3 game where we were beaten by a couple of goals and in round 3 we doubled Richmond's score in the last quarter - only side this year to outscore them in the final quarter. If we win, we put the tigers on the road probably in perth and we don't leave the mcg.

 

[UAWM]

If Collingwood, Hawthorn and West Coast win we play Richmond
If West Coast lose and Collingwood and Hawthorn win we play Collingwood 2nd v 3rd
If West Coast and Collingwood Lose we play West Coast (MCG)
If Hawthorn lose and Geelong, West Coast and Collingwood win we play Geelong
If Collingwood and West Coast win and Hawthorn lose we play winner out of GWS, Melbourne
If Collingwood and West Coast win and Geelong wins by enough and Hawthorn lose we play Geelong

i think most of this is correct...

 

[Stratton_Gun]

Just shit that we play Sydney. For them to overtake us we'd need to lose and then won but since we're playing them, if one happens both does lol

 

[Brant]

Can someone please explain the mad chutzpah to play Richmond week one?

Easy win. Week off. Smash a couple teams then get the trembly tigers again in the GF.

 

[GinniAndTonic]

Assuming strong favourites win, the critical games are ours and Des v GWS Hawks win by more than pIes = WCE V Hawks Thursday night
Hawks win by less than pies = Tigers v Hawks Friday night
swans win Dees win = Hawks v GWS Sat night
Swans win GWS win = Hawks v Dees or Cats depending on % Sat arvo.
If we win, Pies win and WC lose it is Hawks v pIes Friday MCG. I like this one best,

Are these the actual nights we will be playing?

 

[HODGEYROAD]

Just shit that we play Sydney. For them to overtake us we'd need to lose and then won but since we're playing them, if one happens both does lol

Yeah but if we played someone else and lost the winner of Melbourne vs GWS would overtake us anyways.

 

[JD888]

C'arn the mighty Hawks & go the Dees. If the Hawks lose I reckon I'd rather face GWS in the elimination final than the Dees.

 

[Stratton_Gun]

Assuming WCE, Collingwood and Geelojg won which is a 90% chance. The winner of Hawks Swans will be 4th. Loser 6th. Winner for Giants Dees 5th loser 7th. So it's either a Qf v tigers or a EF vs Dees/Giants

 

[GlenferrieOval3122]

Not afraid of Melbourne at the G. We trashed their brand earlier in the year according to their coach and in the last quarter we were playing party tricks around goal.

 

[essaynode]

Can someone please explain the mad chutzpah to play Richmond week one?

I personally like the idea of having the opportunity to play them twice in the finals. The teams and tactics have changed since the early season so we don't have a gauge on whether we can match them.

In my mind, the ideal would be a close loss to Richmond as a sighter (show that we can get them) and provide an incentive, especially to the younger boys of the need to lift in finals. The loss will play into the media narrative of Richmond being unbeatable, shoe ins for the flag, etc...

We build form and confidence in the next two games and then go into a grand final as underdogs but with a quiet confidence and determination. (We get up for Whitecross to finally make him a premiership player - not sure about that bit.) Farewell a few servants on a high (like Shane Crawford) and everyone lives happily ever after.

Is that too much to dream?

 

[hawkheart]

The aim is to win the flag. None of this bravura 'test yourself against the best' nonsense re Richmond. Why would anyone want to meet clearly the best team (in the home and away) once, possibly twice, in the finals? The best way to win the flag is to luck out with the easiest draw. Teams you match up well against / have the wood on. Is Richmond first up the easiest game? Of course not. They've long been a bogey side. WC even in Perth would be preferable surely, or Collingwood by some fluke. The best chance to knock off the Tigers is to meet them once - in the GF - when all the back-to-back pressure is on them. I don't think the club shies away from a Richmond match up in week one (if we get over the Swans) but in the finals, surely every little advantage helps.

 

[MightyHawks]

The aim is to win the flag. None of this bravura 'test yourself against the best' nonsense re Richmond. Why would anyone want to meet clearly the best team (in the home and away) once, possibly twice, in the finals? The best way to win the flag is to luck out with the easiest draw. Teams you match up well against / have the wood on. Is Richmond first up the easiest game? Of course not. They've long been a bogey side. WC even in Perth would be preferable surely, or Collingwood by some fluke. The best chance to knock off the Tigers is to meet them once - in the GF - when all the back-to-back pressure is on them. I don't think the club shies away from a Richmond match up in week one (if we get over the Swans) but in the finals, surely every little advantage helps.

If we finish top 4 and we think we are a chance of the flag then Richmond might be most vulnerable first up. And if the Eagles do finish second then the tigers would have to win in Perth were we to beat them.

Could we still make the Grand Final if we finished 4th and lost to the Tigers? We'd probably get winner of Melbourne v Geelong (i have a feeling Melbourne will play better in the finals than they have trying to get there) and then have to beat Collingwood or West Coast in Perth in the Prelim

IMO the most likely way we make the Grand Final is beating Collingwood in a Qualifying Final, Richmond beat the Eagles in the other one who then win their semi so we end up playing the Eagles in a prelim at the G. This scenario most likely ends up in playing Richmond in the Grand Final.

Anyway our task this week is clear, must beat the Swans on Saturday night and then who we play in week 1 is in the hands of the eagles and lions

 

[hk89]

Anyway our task this week is clear, must beat the Swans on Saturday night and then who we play in week 1 is in the hands of the eagles and lions

Not entirely. Pies can also dictate if we play Tigers or WC (should WC finish second) by dictating if we finish 3rd or 4th.

 

[JD888]

If Collingwood and West Coast win and Hawthorn lose we play winner out of GWS, Melbourne

i think most of this is correct...

My ladder predictor has us playing the loser of GWS & Dees if we lose to the Swans? Except if the Dees lose and Geelong win by 40pts or more then we play Geelong if we lose. In that scenario Melbourne & GWS would face each other again in the elimination final.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

My ladder predictor has us playing the loser of GWS & Dees if we lose to the Swans? Except if the Dees lose and Geelong win by 40pts or more then we play Geelong if we lose. In that scenario Melbourne & GWS would face each other again in the elimination final.

Which they will IMO. So basically if we win we will play Richmond, if we lose it will be GWS or Geelong.

 

[MightyHawks]

Not entirely. Pies can also dictate if we play Tigers or WC (should WC finish second) by dictating if we finish 3rd or 4th.

I have this funny feeling that the Pies will beat Freo by plenty

 

[JD888]

Question... if the Hawks lose to the Swans who would you rather face out of Melbourne, GWS, Geelong?

 

[hk89]

I have this funny feeling that the Pies will beat Freo by plenty

Yes , that's very likely, although it is not uncommon for a team that got the kind of flogging Freo got to bounce back somewhat the next week. Also a much better side in Perth. If Buddy doesn't get up for the game, and Freo does respond to their humiliation in a positive way then there may will be a very close percentage race between us and Pies for 3rd and 4th spot if Freo can limit the damage. Of course the ideal scenario is probably WC losing and us being able to play Pies instead of Tigers at the MCG in week 1.