Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

[Happy_Neale]

Thanks all for the love. I won't be doing weekly reports this year, but Squiggle will still be running, and I'm up for joining in the discussion, especially if we get another couple of armchair analysts in here. The back and forth has always been my favourite part of it.

 

[Allikat]

While I'm not looking forward to coming 16th this year (the squiggle's so mean), a showdown would be awesome for the meltdowns.

 

[bomberclifford]

I've really enjoyed the Squiggle these last couple of years so thanks to Final Siren for the efforts and thanks to OP for taking up the initiative to keep the thread alive for 2018. Much appreciated.

As for the starting predictions for 2018, I'm not so sure I would survive a Showdown GF. Would be brutal.

 

[powerpowerpower]

Final Siren your summaries will be sadly missed. Your baby is one of the best footy analytics ever! A little bit of data causes the biggest melts.

 

[Crankyhawk]

Subbed for the squiggly love

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Melbourne are way too good to finish 13th tbh, if anything they're a better top 4 chance than to not be in the top 10.

Squiggle takes into account boot camps...

 

[Komrade_Tiger]

I love the squiggle and love it even more when it is wrong, so we are off to a great start with it predicting Adelaide beat Richmond in a final! Just cant see that happening. But subbed for the journey and would very much love to see Final Siren come back for his weekly reports.

He hasn't sobered up yet.

Don't worry, when we inevitably disappoint him again the squiggle will still be waiting for him to return. It's a safe place

 

[ezard15]

Is this how they are going to shorten the length of games?

"Squigglebowl 2018"

 

[ibd77]

I've really enjoyed the Squiggle these last couple of years so thanks to Final Siren for the efforts and thanks to OP for taking up the initiative to keep the thread alive for 2018. Much appreciated.

As for the starting predictions for 2018, I'm not so sure I would survive a Showdown GF. Would be brutal.

I think the state of SA would have to call a state of Martial law if it ever did eventuate.

 

[Benny78]

Doesn't take Richmonds 2018 fixture into account? A Prelim is insane but always possible, just highly unlikely imo.

 

[HTT]

Doesn't take Richmonds 2018 fixture into account? A Prelim is insane but always possible, just highly unlikely imo.

It models the entire season, so yes it takes the fixture into account.

 

[The Dice Man]

It models the entire season, so yes it takes the fixture into account.

That would explain Geelong, a very ordinary team who has been found out in finals recently being ranked so high at 5th. Home ground advantage is great during the H&A but when the real shit starts, the Cats fall into their own shitboxes.

 

[Pessimistic]

The squiggle is dead.....Long live the squiggle!

And here’s a toast to the Squiggle-makers. Great work guys

 

[Engimal v3]

I'm working on a model now that can predict ~6/10 of the Brownlow top 10. Nothing too impressive, trying to tweak it now.

 

[The Dice Man]

I'm working on a model now that can predict ~6/10 of the Brownlow top 10. Nothing too impressive, trying to tweak it now.

Have you tried adding drugs?

 

[Engimal v3]

Have you tried adding drugs?

Yeah, but programming on acid doesn't always work out well.

 

[telsor]

Some things never change with the squiggle. We won the flag and it STILL doesn't think we're a chance.

Meh, we're 1.4% behind Port. Make that up and we'd be looking at couple of home finals followed by Adelaide doing another deer in the headlights impression against us at the MCG on GF day.

Back2back! The salt mine continues!

 

[Engimal v3]

I'm working on a model now that can predict ~6/10 of the Brownlow top 10. Nothing too impressive, trying to tweak it now.

Okay, so I've done a bit of tweaking. From 2012-2017, I can predict 55.7% of the top 10 Brownlow finishers. Further, out of the top 3 of each year, I can predict 33% of them. In 2017, it manages to predict 4/5 of the top 5.

Obviously nothing amazing, but fun nonetheless.

 

[telsor]

Okay, so I've done a bit of tweaking. From 2012-2017, I can predict 55.7% of the top 10 Brownlow finishers. Further, out of the top 3 of each year, I can predict 33% of them. In 2017, it manages to predict 4/5 of the top 5.

Obviously nothing amazing, but fun nonetheless.

Predict from when?

I mean, If you're making the predictions before rnd1, that's pretty good but if you're making them after rnd23...meh.

Assuming you're going for the early call, how many of the 'mistakes' (those you predicted but didn't make it) had injury/suspension issues big enough to cause that? (after all, few prediction models could get them with any reliability).

 

[Blue and Silver]

Set up a patreon Final Siren.

You'll be funded to Squiggle your heart out

 

[Engimal v3]

Predict from when?

I mean, If you're making the predictions before rnd1, that's pretty good but if you're making them after rnd23...meh.

Assuming you're going for the early call, how many of the 'mistakes' (those you predicted but didn't make it) had injury/suspension issues big enough to cause that? (after all, few prediction models could get them with any reliability).

After round 23. As I said, nothing impressive. If you accept that the Brownlow is a midfielders award, it becomes pretty easy to predict the top 10 using some key stats.

 

[LeverPuller]

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

Final Siren

The squiggle "recalculate" button is broken.....

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Squiggle trolling the Crows supporters early this year I see!

 

[Final Siren]

Final Siren

The squiggle "recalculate" button is broken.....

Thanks, I did a bad. Fixed now.

I'm going to add a thing where you can enter scores and see what would happen.