Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

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Hobbes said:
I might as well use this thread for the algorithm I've been running for two or three years now.

I'll start with the initial ratings for teams. This is an end-of-2017 form rating for each team. There's one conspicuous number which it's difficult to not notice, but if they're not as good as all that then the number will come down. There's also a positive skew at the moment, meaning that the average team rating is about 3. (It should, in theory, average out as zero).

1. Richmond 42.6
2. Adelaide 18.0
3. Sydney 9.5
4. GWS 6.9
5. Port Adelaide 3.0
6. Hawthorn 2.5
7. Geelong 2.3
8. Collingwood 1.8
9. West Coast 0.43
10. St Kilda 0.40
11. Melbourne -0.8
12. Western Bulldogs -1.6
13. North Melbourne -2.4
14. Essendon -3.9
15. Brisbane -4.0
16. Carlton -5.7
17. Fremantle -6.4
18. Gold Coast -10.2

This would make the first round tips (Yeah, I know it's been and gone, but it's an algorithm so it shouldn't matter)

Richmond +48 v Carlton
Essendon v Adelaide +16
St Kilda +10 v Brisbane
Port Adelaide +22 v Fremantle
Gold Coast v North Melbourne +2
Hawthorn +1 v Collingwood
GWS +14 v Western Bulldogs
Melbourne v Geelong +3
Sydney v West Coast +3

6/9 is probably about average. Margins could use work, except for my first exact margin of the year, with Geelong.

Round 2 ratings

1. Richmond +35.5
2. Sydney +22.6 (+1)
3. GWS +19.9 (+1)
4. Adelaide +11.5 (-2)
5. Hawthorn +10.6 (+1)
6. Geelong +9.8 (+1)
7. Port Adelaide +8.7 (-2)
8. St Kilda 2.5 (+2)
9. Essendon +1.7 (+5)
10. Melbourne -0.6 (+1)
11. Carlton -1.9 (+5)
12. West Coast -4.7 (-3)
13. Collingwood -5.7 (-5)
14. North Melbourne -9.0 (-1)
15. Brisbane -10.2
16. Gold Coast -10.3 (+2)
17. Western Bulldogs -13.9 (-5)
18. Fremantle -14.8 (-1)

Round 2 predictions

Adelaide v Richmond +18
North Melbourne v St Kilda +12
Carlton +14 v Gold Coast
Collingwood v GWS +20
Brisbane v Melbourne +4
Fremantle v Essendon +7
Western Bulldogs v West Coast +1
Sydney +23 v Port Adelaide
Geelong v Hawthorn +1

3/8 so far should dispel any thoughts that I'm taking advantage of doing the tips after the event. I'll post-mortem properly when the round is finished.
Click to expand...


Hi, interesting stuff.
I've got questions about how GC rating went down after their first round victory.
Obviously attacking stats were poor (scoring shots, scoring efficiency etc..) but then in return defensive stats were excellent.

Do you mind sharing some of the variables used in your algorithm?
 
gcsunsfc said:
Hi, interesting stuff.
I've got questions about how GC rating went down after their first round victory.
Obviously attacking stats were poor (scoring shots, scoring efficiency etc..) but then in return defensive stats were excellent.

Do you mind sharing some of the variables used in your algorithm?
Click to expand...

The algorithm sometimes moves in mysterious ways (as the weighting for old matches changes, for example) - in any case, a small home win against a weakish team doesn't count for much. However, if North's rating improves, so will the algorithm's respect for this win.

The algorithm is described in my old threads https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/algorithm-revisited-after-finals-week-3.1160898/ and https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/team-rating-system-update-after-finals-week-three.1128857/ .
 

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Adelaide v Richmond +18
North Melbourne v St Kilda +12
Carlton +14 v Gold Coast
Collingwood v GWS +20
Brisbane v Melbourne +4
Fremantle v Essendon +7
Western Bulldogs v West Coast +1
Sydney +23 v Port Adelaide
Geelong v Hawthorn +1

4/9. Not impressive, but there were some bona fide upsets here. And my second exact margin prediction of the year, both involving Geelong.

Round 3 ratings

1. Richmond +27.9
2. Adelaide +19.9 (+1)
3. Port Adelaide +14.5 (+4)
4. GWS +14.2 (-1)
5. Sydney +13.7 (-3)
6. Geelong +8.01
7. Hawthorn +7.99 (-2)
8. West Coast +4.0 (+4)
9. North Melbourne +2.0 (+5)
10. Melbourne +1.6
11. Collingwood -2.2 (+2)
12. Essendon -3.1 (-3)
13. Gold Coast -4.1 (+3)
14. St Kilda -7.1 (-6)
15. Fremantle -9.3 (+3)
16. Carlton -12.5 (-5)
17. Brisbane -12.8 (-2)
18. Western Bulldogs -17.2 (-1)

This leads to the round 3 tips

Carlton v Collingwood +10
Port Adelaide +37 v Brisbane
Melbourne v North Melbourne +1
Gold Coast +18 v Fremantle
Sydney v GWS +1
St Kilda v Adelaide +21
Richmond +20 v Hawthorn
Western Bulldogs v Essendon +14
West Coast +5 v Geelong

And the year-end predictor

1. Richmond 16.3
2. Port Adelaide 14.7
3. Adelaide 14.5
4. GWS 14.2
5. Sydney 13.43
6. Hawthorn 13.42
7. Geelong 11.8
8. North Melbourne 11.2
9. West Coast 11.1
10. Melbourne 10.9
11. Gold Coast 10.6
12. Essendon 9.5
13. Collingwood 9.4
14. Fremantle 8.7
15. St Kilda 8.2
16. Carlton 7.3
17. Brisbane 6.7
18. Western Bulldogs 6.0
 
Squiggle currently predicting a 91-89 win to Hawthorn over Geelong in an elimination final. That game would be enormous. Sadly we get done by Richmond in week 2 of finals.
 
Love the squiggle.
 

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WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot said:
This isn’t a discussion about the AFL ladder. It is a discussion about the Squiggle, which does not try and suggest that it represents the AFL ladder.
Click to expand...
I know that, thank you very much. Just keeping things light hearted.

Which does lead to the question, how much of a streak does North have to get on before the squiggle (all hail to thee) takes us seriously?
 
B4Bear said:
I know that, thank you very much. Just keeping things light hearted.

Which does lead to the question, how much of a streak does North have to get on before the squiggle (all hail to thee) takes us seriously?
Click to expand...
Looking at the predictions for the next 3 North games, a couple of decent wins would likely put you level with Geelong and the Hawks and pushing into the space currently occupied by the top 5.
 
Well round 2 is over and we are seeing two distinct groups form, oh, and my Lions doing their own thing out the back. The good news is that Carlton, the Bulldogs, and St Kilda all seem to be rushing over to hang out with us, so that's nice of them. That top 5 feels about right to me, but I do think Geelong and perhaps Melbourne, Essendon and god-forbid Hawthorn could jump over to the front pack as things play out.

Squiggle currently has Port and GWS battling it out for the flag, which is good I guess because it's nice to see fresh faces, and they both play scintillating football. It also means we all might be able to get a ticket to the big dance.

squiggle rd 2.PNG
 
Carlton v Collingwood +10
Port Adelaide +37 v Brisbane
Melbourne v North Melbourne +1
Gold Coast +18 v Fremantle
Sydney v GWS +1
St Kilda v Adelaide +21
Richmond +20 v Hawthorn
Western Bulldogs v Essendon +14
West Coast +5 v Geelong

Round 3 ratings

1. Richmond 26.9
2. Adelaide 22.7
3. Sydney 15.1 (+2)
4. GWS 13.3 (-1)
5. Port Adelaide 11.6 (-2)
6. Hawthorn 9.1 (+1)
7. Melbourne 7.7 (+3)
8. Geelong 7.4 (-2)
9. West Coast 6.0 (-1)
10. Collingwood -0.4 (+1)
11. Fremantle -3.5 (+4)
12. North Melbourne -4.0 (-3)
13. Essendon -7.0 (-1)
14. Brisbane -8.5 (+3)
15. Gold Coast -10.3 (-2)
16. St Kilda -11.8 (-2)
17. Carlton -12.6 (-1)
18. Western Bulldogs -13.4

Adelaide +29 v Collingwood
GWS +29 v Fremantle
Richmond +41 v Brisbane
Western Bulldogs v Sydney +24
North Melbourne +9 v Carlton
West Coast +29 v Gold Coast
Port Adelaide +13 v Essendon
Hawthorn +1 v Melbourne
Geelong +19 v St Kilda

And the year-end ladder

1. Richmond 16.5
2. Adelaide 15.2 (+1)
3. Port Adelaide 14.3 (-1)
4. Sydney 14.2 (+1)
5. GWS 13.5 (-1)
6. Hawthorn 13.4
7. Melbourne 12.6 (+3)
8. West Coast 11.9 (+1)
9. Geelong 11.3 (-2)
10. Fremantle 10.4 (+4)
11. Collingwood 10.1 (+2)
12. North Melbourne 9.5 (-4)
13. Gold Coast 8.6 (-2)
14. Essendon 8.1 (-2)
15. Brisbane 7.5 (+2)
16. Western Bulldogs 7.3 (+2)
17. St Kilda 7.0 (-2)
18. Carlton 6.7 (-2)
 
Round 3 was fairly tame in the way of squiggles, some good movement by Brisbane sees them join in with the main pack and now we see 2 very distinct groups forming - the top 5 & the rest. I suppose the question for the season is can anybody make the leap from the main pack to join the top echelon. I am reluctant to write off the Cats, as they have been so good for so long, but their injury list is currently an issue. For now, I will stay with the Demons to build form over the season and throw their name amongst the top contenders come seasons end. If that ends up being the top 6 then we should have a cracking finals series - 2 NSW teams, 2 SA teams, the reigning premiers (and arguably biggest club in the land), and the oldest football club coming in off a 12 year drought.
squiggle rd 3.PNG
 
Close squiggle week with Melbourne v Hawks being tipped as a 1pt game, opportunity for big movement for both sides
 

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Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

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