Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

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In a bad way imo. Where were they ranked before this weekend? I don't buy that all of a sudden they're making the semis (according to squiggle)
I think the movement in the squiggle is justified. This was a massive result. If you discount the couple of goals that came about as a result of the umpires momentum swing, the movement would be even crazier. Keeping the most attacking side in the comp to 58 points whilst playing in their home fortress is impressive af.
 

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I think the movement in the squiggle is justified. This was a massive result. If you discount the couple of goals that came about as a result of the umpires momentum swing, the movement would be even crazier. Keeping the most attacking side in the comp to 58 points whilst playing in their home fortress is impressive af.
I still find it hard to believe they'll be able to maintain it, but who knows. Very interesting movement though
 
The 1917 cup hasn't been spotted on the squiggle for decades.
Funnily enough, the only typo in my PhD thesis to escape, not only my notice, my supervisor and three examiners, was a reference to the Harvester Judgement of 2007 (it actually happened in 1907). I blamed that one on Word's auto-correct - not an excuse that will wash in this case..
 
Squiggle now has Tiger B2B comfortably. Having said that we broke the squiggle last year and it may get broken again.
Might have broken the Crows as well :(
 

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If you are anything like me, hearing Final Siren state that after his beloved Tigers saluted in the last game of the 2017 season he would be retiring from continuing the greatest thread on Big Footy, it has left a massive void in your heart.

He has kindly given me permission to start an appreciation thread using the material from his squiggle website - https://live.squiggle.com.au/# - and for us to have a place to continue the legacy that was squiggle.

This will be a squiggle socialist utopia, so feel free to post the updates each week, as well as to add in any of your own models and analytics. Let's keep it footy prediction and reflection based, and try not to get too upset when a model/poster disagrees with your opinion. The squiggle loves us all equally and will reflect that over the journey, it just happens to be Richmond's turn in the sun at the moment. However in saying that, it looks as if this benevolent deity has moved on:

View attachment 462324 View attachment 462325 View attachment 462326

Geez I only just saw this thread. So Squiggle's original prediction for 2018 is for a showdown grand final with the Crows winning it. Would have to be the best possible scenario in a Crows supporter's mind, and one that will never be beaten.
Only problem being....we're playing like shit now and are very unlikely to make it. Long season though....
 
Geez I only just saw this thread. So Squiggle's original prediction for 2018 is for a showdown grand final with the Crows winning it. Would have to be the best possible scenario in a Crows supporter's mind, and one that will never be beaten.
Only problem being....we're playing like shit now and are very unlikely to make it. Long season though....

Yeah, you've dropped somewhat in contention since then, but I think you can still turn things around when you get some players back, just have to avoid dropping too many games over the next few weeks and should still be good enough for top 4. Can't afford to drop more games at home though. Season is so close that even one upset loss at home could be the difference between top 4 and playing an away elimination final (or even missing the 8 completely).
 
Adelaide +29 v Collingwood
GWS +29 v Fremantle
Richmond +41 v Brisbane
Western Bulldogs v Sydney +24
North Melbourne +9 v Carlton
West Coast +29 v Gold Coast
Port Adelaide +13 v Essendon
Hawthorn +1 v Melbourne
Geelong +19 v St Kilda

7/9, falling for the obvious upsets.

1. Richmond 28.9
2. Hawthorn 19.7)
3. GWS 16.3 (+1)
4. Sydney 13.1 (-1)
5. Adelaide 12.29 (-3)
6. Collingwood 12.28 (+4)
7. Geelong 11.8 (+1)
8. West Coast 10.9 (+1)
9. Port Adelaide 6.4 (-4)
10. North Melbourne 2.0 (+2)
11. Melbourne +0.9 (-4)
12. Fremantle -3.8 (-1)
13. Essendon -4.3
14. Western Bulldogs -10.6 (+4)
15. Brisbane -15.9 (-1)
16. Gold Coast -16.0 (-1)
17. St Kilda -18.0 (-1)
18. Carlton -22.5 (-1)

The likely bottom four clearing out at the bottom thanks to drubbings.

Sydney +10 v Adelaide
St Kilda v GWS +29
Carlton v West Coast +24
Port Adelaide +1 v Geelong
Fremantle +16 v Western Bulldogs
North Melbourne v Hawthorn +16
Brisbane +1 v Gold Coast
Melbourne v Richmond +27
Collingwood +17 v Essendon

And the predictive ladder

1. Richmond 16.8
2. Hawthorn 16.1 (+4)
3. GWS 14.7 (+1)
4. Sydney 13.9 (+1)
5. Collingwood 13.4 (+8)
6. West Coast 13.1 (+3)
7. Adelaide 12.8 (-4)
8. Port Adelaide 12.7 (-6)
9. Geelong 12.6 (-2)
10. Melbourne 11.2
11. North Melbourne 11.0
12. Fremantle 10.1 (+2)
13. Essendon 9.0 (-1)
14. Western Bulldogs 7.8 (+4)
15. Gold Coast 7.5 (-4)
16. Brisbane 5.6 (+1)
17. St Kilda 5.3 (-2)
18. Carlton 4.7 (-2)

Predictions flying everywhere here. Some look a bit weird - my spreadsheet sometimes moves in mysterious ways. (For example, Melbourne got beaten up, but North's good performance makes my computer like Melbourne's win last week a bit more.)
 
My system based on dominance matrices has the team rankings after four rounds looking like this:


Round 4
Richmond 100
Hawthorn 84.46
GWS 67.27
West Coast 65.72
North Melbourne 50.6
Geelong 43.54
Collingwood 36.74
Sydney 35.51
Adelaide 32.45
Port Adelaide 20.3
Essendon 8.25
Melbourne 8.1
Fremantle -1.65
Gold Coast -2.34
Western Bulldogs -22.39
Carlton -69.42
St Kilda -72.41
Brisbane -119.81

This system had Hawthorn beating West Coast in the 2015 GF in round 14 2015. Massive swings and roundabouts in round four though. Takes a while to settle in.

An explanation of the maths can be found in this thread:
https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/team-rankings-2017.1161683/
 
I’ve got the feeling squiggle 2.0 might be a bit too reactive. Will see how it goes at the end of the year though I suppose
Collingwood really hit the jackpot with this game, because it's everything Squiggle likes:
  • Beating an interstate opponent at their home
  • Holding the opposition to a low total
  • Restricting their scoring shots as well as their score
  • Defending well against an opponent that usually scores highly
  • Early in the season
The same game later in the year wouldn't have caused as much movement, because it's less likely that a team suddenly gets good after a lot of mediocre games. But in Round 4, it may actually be a sign of what's to come.
 
Collingwood really hit the jackpot with this game, because it's everything Squiggle likes:
  • Beating an interstate opponent at their home
  • Holding the opposition to a low total
  • Restricting their scoring shots as well as their score
  • Defending well against an opponent that usually scores highly
  • Early in the season
The same game later in the year wouldn't have caused as much movement, because it's less likely that a team suddenly gets good after a lot of mediocre games. But in Round 4, it may actually be a sign of what's to come.

North and Richmond also got ridiculous swing with only these metrics (on sides that will be bottom 4)
  • Beating an interstate opponent at their home
  • Holding the opposition to a low total
  • Restricting their scoring shots as well as their score
  • Defending well against an opponent that usually scores highly
  • Early in the season
 
North and Richmond also got ridiculous swing with only these metrics (on sides that will be bottom 4)
  • Beating an interstate opponent at their home
  • Holding the opposition to a low total
  • Restricting their scoring shots as well as their score
  • Defending well against an opponent that usually scores highly
  • Early in the season
Yeah, and it's easy to underrate those results because we had two games in a weekend that would ordinarily be the talking point all by themselves, along with the Adelaide/Collingwood shocker and a bunch of other thrashings.

Melbourne's 48 points isn't as bad as it seems, despite the 3-quarters-for-1-goal thing, since it at least came from 18 scoring shots.

But Carlton's 30 points was horrendous: It would have been the 2nd-lowest score of 2017, higher only than the final-round Gold Coast capitulation of 3.2 (20) to Port in Adelaide when the Suns had nothing to play for.

And Brisbane's 2.5 (17) is like a scoreline from a hundred years ago. It's the third-lowest score of the AFL era.

Teams have played in monsoons and scored better than this.

Those are really extraordinary numbers, so they generate plenty of chart movement.
 

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Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

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