iluvparis
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That's why squiggle is better than you
Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)
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That's why squiggle is better than you
- Mar 28, 2018
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Is it why?
I think it's largely a myth. The biggest joke is the Eagles supposedly hometown umpiring decisions. Last year our most generously umpired game was at Optus against the Eagles.
This year the gameday at thread was full of complaints from neutrals abou8t the supposed Eagies bias but I couldn't fault the decisions.
Squiggle doesn’t rate grounds that highly as a factor though? Maximum of 12 point swing, which is a lot lower than many people would claim.
iluvparis
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Fine if you don't think a 2 goal head starts means much then yes - grounds have no influence on results - but 2 goals is a MASSIVE advantage over the long run.
You can't judge something like that based off one game. Argue against this if you want.
I’m more thinking compared to how most people think about it where travelling to another state is equivalent to having every player’s right arm amputated before the game
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It's actually a few and yes I take more notice of our games.
Numbers aren't that relevant and our free kick differential is bad, as is the Tigers. It happens when you play contested footy. Generally the Eagles don't and prioritise uncontested play, particularly between the arcs. A lot of their turnovers are clean intercepts in the backline as well, which are less risky that packs on the ground in terms of free kicks.
iluvparis
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Sorry mate but the stats show that for years the Eagles get a massive free ride from the umps at home. The simple fact is there is zero chance you have played the exact same style for the last 20 years.
If you continue down this road you will be well and truly entering kool aid territory.
The Eagles have prioritised uncontested play recently yes, but how do you explain the consistent positive differential over 15 YEARS and different coaches?
Also, if your uncontested idea was correct, then you would expect Hawthorn to be right up the top with them since 2007/8 and yet they are 2nd last. How do you explain that?
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You say it. Lots of people say it and then you use the fact that lots if people have said it as proof that it's true. That's the definition of Kool-aid territory.
I'm not an Eagles fan, I have no stake in this. Just a general dislike of bullshit.
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I reject the premise that raw numbers mean there's an argument to rebut.
So your gut feel and single sample anecdotal evidence is enough for you but raw data (which, unless you are blind shows at the very least correlation) doesn't cut it?
I'm leaving here, if anyone else wants to bang there head against a wall in my stead, feel free.
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So irrelevant evidence is proof?
Of course the hawks were never accused of being favoured by the umps because they were playing uncontested footy. Remember #freekickhawthorn?
iluvparis
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No I don't I use the DATA as proof that it is true.
Magpie Monopoly
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But is flawed data?
iluvparis
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I would have thought Free Kicks For - Free Kicks Against was a fairly simple, yet elegant data series
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How are you explaining it? Are you suggesting there is a conspiracy with umpires that umpire in Western Australia even though most aren't even from Western Australia? Sounds like flat earth territory to me. A team has to be on top in differential, and it happens to be West Coast. Does it also mean there is a vendetta out for Sydney? Data is just data, you still have to deduce meaning from it and its outrageous to say that Umpires in Western Australia have a bias for West Coast.
Not sure how you drew that bow. All I said was they have a clear advantage. I made no claims as to why.
But since you brought it up, its not a conspiracy, it simple human error. Your fans are so damn loud and it influences decisions subconsciously. I believe the umpires are aware and reckon they have actually over-corrected in a couple of games this year to your detriment.
What’s the difference between those stats for WC at home, and away?
Overall stats suggest nothing about this.
I believe there is a thread around that suggests there is about a 4 free kick disparity home vs away but I am not sure exactly.
Magpie Monopoly
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Depends on what point you're trying to represent.
What point are you trying to make?
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From this excellent article by Matt Cowgill: http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/st...ics-explains-free-kick-counts-2017-afl-season
Matt also has a great chapter in Footballistics where he goes into more detail about this, basically making the argument that home ground advantage is mostly about crowd noise influencing umpiring decisions.
Would you be comfortable saying there is definitely something going on in West Coast home games? Looks like Port is up there too.
From this excellent article by Matt Cowgill: http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/st...ics-explains-free-kick-counts-2017-afl-season
Matt also has a great chapter in Footballistics where he goes into more detail about this, basically making the argument that home ground advantage is mostly about crowd noise influencing umpiring decisions.
Forward Press
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There is.
However, what would be a realistic solution to this? Umpires are always swayed by home crowds, numerous studies have proved this.
In the end, as people like to say, it is far more important where free kicks are paid, and where free kicks are missed. Raw numbers by themselves is just one set of data that anyone can twist to suit their agenda.
For example, I can say that in games where sides commonly accumulate 300 possessions a game, an extra 1.3% given by the umpires is barely significant.
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