Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

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Roobs321 said:
Imagine if that had been the top 6 in 2004

Bulldogs - 43 years since last granny
Melbourne - 40 years since last flag
Sydney - 71 years since last flag
Richmond - 2 finals series in last 21 seasons
Port - haven't made a granny
Geelong - 41 years since last flag

Not to mention the Bulldogs, Dees, Tiges and Cats all being rubbish the previous season. That finals series would go off!
Click to expand...
To be fair 4 of those teams finished top 6 in 2004, with Richmond and the Bulldogs replaced by St Kilda (38 years since last flag) and Brisbane (going for a historic 4th consecutive flag)
 
Every Melbourne fan has a soft spot for Melbourne 2013. It’s nice to be the best at something, even if that something is being the worst.
 
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Link to this Alternate Reality
Richmond finish 8th, scraping into the 8 on percentage, then beat 5th place Eagles, 4th place Giants, and 2nd place Power, each on their home decks, before getting done by Melbourne in the GF.

Link to this Alternate Reality
I also like this one where West Coast get 2015'd again, beating Richmond at home in week 1 before being pounded 3 weeks later on the MCG
 

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iluvparis said:
will be mortgaging my house to get on the tigers in that qualifying final
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Houses are overrated. Plenty of places where you get a decent nights sleep.

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Roobs321 said:
Squiggle predicting 8/9 games this week to be decided by 7 points or less.

West Coast currently 10th in flagpole

St Kilda's Tower range seems to go as high as 8th.
Click to expand...
And then there’s North v Dees where if we win by less than 70 we go backwards in Squiggle terms
 
CarnTheScray said:
Where on the website would you go to find the finals and GF prediction? Can’t find it anywhere.
Click to expand...
It is tucked away a bit. You go on the Live Squiggle and click FORECAST.

That page is generated by the in-house Squiggle model, i.e. the one I wrote. The main site aggregates tips from many different models, including mine, but most don't produce GF tips this far out since that's pretty ridiculous.
 
Two questions Final Siren:

1) What’s the difference between the ladder prediction on the home page vs the forecast prediction?
2) What’s the earliest Squiggle has gotten to a 95% probability for the wooden spoon?
 
Roobs321 said:
Squiggle predicting 8/9 games this week to be decided by 7 points or less.

West Coast currently 10th in flagpole

St Kilda's Tower range seems to go as high as 8th.
Click to expand...
This round is the 2nd-hardest one of the year to tip, on current information! (The hardest is Round 12.) Lots of 50/50 games.

Technically, Squiggle doesn't expect 8 games to be nail-biters; it just can't tell which will be the inevitable blow-outs. It's a similar situation to finals, where models almost always tip close matches because there isn't much to separate the two teams, even though we all know that plenty of finals will be thumpings.
 
LeverPuller said:
1) What’s the difference between the ladder prediction on the home page vs the forecast prediction?
Click to expand...
The main page is the Aggregate Ladder, i.e. this: https://squiggle.com.au/ladder/

That combines the predictions of a dozen or so good models from around the internet, including mine, and that process smooths out the little quirks of each one. It should be a more reliable prediction than that of any model in particular.

Although, it just occurs to me, I haven't actually tested that. And (flex warning), last year Squiggle's in-house ladder prediction, which you see on the Live Squiggle page, was more accurate than anyone else's (via Ladder Scoreboard).

As far as I know, no-one has comprehensively measured ladder prediction accuracy before. So I don't think there's been the same attention or accountability as for game tips, nor a similar motivation to get better at it.

Bottom-line, I would rely on the Aggregate Ladder rather than any other single model's prediction (even mine), but remain aware that there's still plenty of room for improvement.

LeverPuller said:
2) What’s the earliest Squiggle has gotten to a 95% probability for the wooden spoon?
Click to expand...
I don't have a good way of quickly checking, because it requires running tens of thousands of simulations per round. But I'm sure it's this year, since North are extremely bad, even by historical standards, and whoever finishes 2nd-last is probably going to be better than usual for that ladder position... maybe a lot better than usual.

So there is a gap there that didn't exist for Melbourne 2013, Fitzroy 1996, et al.
 
Final Siren said:
The main page is the Aggregate Ladder, i.e. this: https://squiggle.com.au/ladder/

That combines the predictions of a dozen or so good models from around the internet, including mine, and that process smooths out the little quirks of each one. It should be a more reliable prediction than that of any model in particular.

Although, it just occurs to me, I haven't actually tested that. And (flex warning), last year Squiggle's in-house ladder prediction, which you see on the Live Squiggle page, was more accurate than anyone else's (via Ladder Scoreboard).

As far as I know, no-one has comprehensively measured ladder prediction accuracy before. So I don't think there's been the same attention or accountability as for game tips, nor a similar motivation to get better at it.

Bottom-line, I would rely on the Aggregate Ladder rather than any other single model's prediction (even mine), but remain aware that there's still plenty of room for improvement.


I don't have a good way of quickly checking, because it requires running tens of thousands of simulations per round. But I'm sure it's this year, since North are extremely bad, even by historical standards, and whoever finishes 2nd-last is probably going to be better than usual for that ladder position... maybe a lot better than usual.

So there is a gap there that didn't exist for Melbourne 2013, Fitzroy 1996, et al.
Click to expand...

So you're saying North can't win the flag.

Great.
 
Final Siren said:
The main page is the Aggregate Ladder, i.e. this: https://squiggle.com.au/ladder/

That combines the predictions of a dozen or so good models from around the internet, including mine, and that process smooths out the little quirks of each one. It should be a more reliable prediction than that of any model in particular.

Although, it just occurs to me, I haven't actually tested that. And (flex warning), last year Squiggle's in-house ladder prediction, which you see on the Live Squiggle page, was more accurate than anyone else's (via Ladder Scoreboard).

As far as I know, no-one has comprehensively measured ladder prediction accuracy before. So I don't think there's been the same attention or accountability as for game tips, nor a similar motivation to get better at it.

Bottom-line, I would rely on the Aggregate Ladder rather than any other single model's prediction (even mine), but remain aware that there's still plenty of room for improvement.


I don't have a good way of quickly checking, because it requires running tens of thousands of simulations per round. But I'm sure it's this year, since North are extremely bad, even by historical standards, and whoever finishes 2nd-last is probably going to be better than usual for that ladder position... maybe a lot better than usual.

So there is a gap there that didn't exist for Melbourne 2013, Fitzroy 1996, et al.
Click to expand...
If and it’s a big IF 17th or 16th are bad enough I can north winning it’s way out of a spoon.
There just needs to be a small gap in the last 8-9 rounds IMO.
Once Tarrant, Corr, McDonald, Anderson, Polec, Dumont, Hall etc come back after the bye we’ll see a sharp increase in competitiveness IMO
 
tazaa said:
If and it’s a big IF 17th or 16th are bad enough I can north winning it’s way out of a spoon.
There just needs to be a small gap in the last 8-9 rounds IMO.
Once Tarrant, Corr, McDonald, Anderson, Polec, Dumont, Hall etc come back after the bye we’ll see a sharp increase in competitiveness IMO
Click to expand...
I think you'll win a game or two, but those blokes aren't taking you from Dees 2013 level to 4 or 5 wins which is the minimum you'll need I think to finish 17th.
 

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Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

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