Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

[lamby]

What's the worst non expansion team in recent years according to Squiggle? North giving it a shake

North are my classic ‘coach/team’ under pressure scenario this week - I am pretty sure North will win this week ($3.36) I still have not worked out how to ‘codify’ this in a model. North aren’t as bad as the results and the Crows aren’t as good (they could have lost all 3 so far). North also seem to know how to win against the Crows (still the same: tag Sloane. Tag Brodie Smith. Stop Tex).

If I could code a ‘team under pressure’ (like Pies last week) I think I could make my tipping models more accurate!

 

[Pessimistic]

What's the worst non expansion team in recent years according to Squiggle? North giving it a shake

brisbane late 90s but they had a phenomenal rise early 2000s

 

[Hobbes]

So Squiggle has the Swans with the highest Attack rating. I'm in shock. How far back do we have to go to find the last time that was the case - was it in the Plugger years or pre-Sydney?

Warwick Capper?

 

[Roobs321]

Yeah the Capper days were pretty crazy, might have pushed for #1 attack then. I don't think they ever did in those (mostly Eade) Lockett days.
I'll do a research check below:


SWANS ATTACK

2020 - 15th attack
2019 - 12th
2018 - 12th
2017 - 5th
2016 - 4th (minor premier)
2015 - 6th
2014 - 4th (minor premier)
2013 - 4th
2012 - 5th (flag)
2011 - 11th
2010 - 7th
2009 - 12th
2008 - 12th
2007 - 10th
2006 - 6th
2005 - 14th (flag)
2004 - 11th
2003 - 8th
2002 - 8th
2001 - 11th
2000 - 8th
1999 - 6th
1998 - 3rd
1997 - 6th
1996 - 9th (minor premier)
1995 - 4th (12th)
1994 - 11th (spoon)
1993 - 14th (spoon)
1992 - 14th (spoon)
1991 - 6th
1990 - 12th
1989 - 8th
1988 - 7th
1987 - FIRST (by 11 goals)
1986 - 3rd
1985 - 9th
1984 - 7th
1983 - 11th
1982 - 4th

As suspected, they picked up a #1 in those Capper days in 1987. Their next best finishes (3rd) are 1986 & 1998, which to memory would seem some of their best chances. They haven't been top 3 attack this millennium. They've never actually been dead last, although 2nd last in those awful 1992-1993 Buckenara days as well as 1983, and a 3rd last in that drought-breaking flag year (drawing AndyD's 'ugly' ire). In fact, if you put aside ladder expansions over time, the Swans are coming off their most distant finish to date (15th attack), at least in ranking terms (real terms might provide slightly different pictures, they should work in tandem depending on closeness and disparities season-to-season).

 

[Pessimistic]

Lions

 

[the harry]

LionsView attachment 1093954View attachment 1093955

Amazing!

 

[Pessimistic]

Amazing!

the talent was always there they just lost their way on the swooper/walls era

 

[Pessimistic]

Notice the tigers flags have come form the defensive flank, and 2021 is looking anything but defensive

 

[Deadly Darcy]

Go dogs

 

[Tippett2Goal]

Warwick Capper?

From memory we kicked 200+ points 3 weeks in a row or something insane like that in 1987, were extremely high scoring.


Edit: it was 1987 rounds 16-18

kicked 30.21 201 vs the Eagles then followed it up the next week with 36.20 236 vs Essendon and finally 31.12 198 vs Richmond

 

[Dirty Bird]

From memory we kicked 200+ points 3 weeks in a row or something insane like that in 1987, were extremely high scoring.


Edit: it was 1987 rounds 16-18

kicked 30.21 201 vs the Eagles then followed it up the next week with 36.20 236 vs Essendon and finally 31.12 198 vs Richmond

And the crowds got worse each week.

See, fans dont enjoy uncontested high scoring football. They want a contest!

 

[Tippett2Goal]

And the crowds got worse each week.

See, fans dont enjoy uncontested high scoring football. They want a contest!

Did they flock back when we only managed 8 goals the following week?

 

[Andonis1997]

Is the Tower only displaying between 2nd and 17th only for everyone else?

 

[Dirty Bird]

Did they flock back when we only managed 8 goals the following week?

Mustve liked what they saw after the 8 goal game that crowds were up nearly 50% for the next home game after a few lower scoring slogs.

 

[Roobs321]

Poor Norf. After 3 games their chance at finishing 16th or higher is quickly vanishing. Tower of Power has them at 0% for top 8, 98.6% for bottom 4, and 82.2% for spoon. Which all feels accurate.

 

[DanWCE]

Squiggle likes the Eagles this week

 

[Final Siren]

North are my classic ‘coach/team’ under pressure scenario this week - I am pretty sure North will win this week ($3.36) I still have not worked out how to ‘codify’ this in a model. North aren’t as bad as the results and the Crows aren’t as good (they could have lost all 3 so far). North also seem to know how to win against the Crows (still the same: tag Sloane. Tag Brodie Smith. Stop Tex).

If I could code a ‘team under pressure’ (like Pies last week) I think I could make my tipping models more accurate!

I've tried a couple of algorithms like that over the years, where they look for teams that unexpectedly lose and tip them to do better the next week. None of them have performed well.

As usual, it's hard to know whether that's because there's no "bounce back" effect or I just haven't cracked the secret formula. I tend to think it's the former, though, since this is the kind of idea that fits known human biases - in particular, we tend to remember big, shocking events, like that one time a team bounced back in a huge upset, and forget all the other times when nothing unexpected happened.

 

[Final Siren]

Poor Norf. After 3 games their chance at finishing 16th or higher is quickly vanishing. Tower of Power has them at 0% for top 8, 98.6% for bottom 4, and 82.2% for spoon. Which all feels accurate.

North have been hurt by the lack of other spoon contenders. Pre-season, the other side with a good chance of finishing bottom was Adelaide, but the Crows are already 2-1. So then maybe Essendon or Gold Coast, but they've each shown a bit, especially the Bombers. Who can take it off North now? GWS? St Kilda? Hawthorn?

If 17th is a team that's not completely terrible, North could win five or six games and still finish bottom. So it's hard to see how they avoid the spoon.

 

[Final Siren]

Is the Tower only displaying between 2nd and 17th only for everyone else?
View attachment 1094057

Oh that's a bit weird. I've made a tweak.

 

[Final Siren]

What's the worst non expansion team in recent years according to Squiggle? North giving it a shake

Melbourne 2013. They were truly diabolical. At their worst, the Demons were 38 Attack, 38 Defence... North is currently 39 Attack, 42 Defence.

 

[Final Siren]

Melbourne 2013. They were truly diabolical. At their worst, the Demons were 38 Attack, 38 Defence... North is currently 39 Attack, 42 Defence.

Bonus Melbourne 2013 facts!

Melbourne 2013 were so bad, when they lost by 94 points in Round 3, their percentage improved (from 28 to 35).

Melbourne 2013 went 2-20 at 54.1%, but didn't finish bottom, because GWS only won 1 game all year.

Melbourne 2013's only wins came against GWS after a mighty come-from-behind effort in the last quarter, and a flop over the line by 3 points against the Bulldogs (who finished 15th).

The nadir for Melbourne was probably Round 3, 2014, after losing to GWS by five goals. This was the worst a team had been since St Kilda 1956, who similarly came off a near-winless year and opened the new season with three bad losses.

Here's an old pic of every team on Squiggle from 1995-2016. Guess which one is Melbourne 2013!


Probably because the AFL didn't want to award GWS a priority pick, Melbourne 2013 didn't get one, either, despite being a historically terrible team in a priority pick era. Here is a chart of bad teams, with icons for those who got priority picks, and crosses for those who didn't. The really bad teams with crosses are mostly the two expansion teams and... guess who!

 

[the harry]

Bonus Melbourne 2013 facts!

Melbourne 2013 were so bad, when they lost by 94 points in Round 3, their percentage improved (from 28 to 35).

Melbourne 2013 went 2-20 at 54.1%, but didn't finish bottom, because GWS only won 1 game all year.

Melbourne 2013's only wins came against GWS after a mighty come-from-behind effort in the last quarter, and a flop over the line by 3 points against the Bulldogs (who finished 15th).

The nadir for Melbourne was probably Round 3, 2014, after losing to GWS by five goals. This was the worst a team had been since St Kilda 1956, who similarly came off a near-winless year and opened the new season with three bad losses.

Here's an old pic of every team on Squiggle from 1995-2016. Guess which one is Melbourne 2013!
View attachment 1094537

Probably because the AFL didn't want to award GWS a priority pick, Melbourne 2013 didn't get one, either, despite being a historically terrible team in a priority pick era. Here is a chart of bad teams, with icons for those who got priority picks, and crosses for those who didn't. The really bad teams with crosses are mostly the two expansion teams and... guess who!

View attachment 1094538

That is fantastic and not just because I don't particularly like Melbourne.

 

[Headless]

Bonus Melbourne 2013 facts!

Melbourne 2013 were so bad, when they lost by 94 points in Round 3, their percentage improved (from 28 to 35).

Melbourne 2013 went 2-20 at 54.1%, but didn't finish bottom, because GWS only won 1 game all year.

Melbourne 2013's only wins came against GWS after a mighty come-from-behind effort in the last quarter, and a flop over the line by 3 points against the Bulldogs (who finished 15th).

The nadir for Melbourne was probably Round 3, 2014, after losing to GWS by five goals. This was the worst a team had been since St Kilda 1956, who similarly came off a near-winless year and opened the new season with three bad losses.

Here's an old pic of every team on Squiggle from 1995-2016. Guess which one is Melbourne 2013!
View attachment 1094537

Probably because the AFL didn't want to award GWS a priority pick, Melbourne 2013 didn't get one, either, despite being a historically terrible team in a priority pick era. Here is a chart of bad teams, with icons for those who got priority picks, and crosses for those who didn't. The really bad teams with crosses are mostly the two expansion teams and... guess who!

View attachment 1094538

Melbourne 2013 content is my favourite content.

Great stuff Final Siren. Always enjoy your work.

 

[Dirty Bird]

One thing I dont get with the current forecast

Qualifying final - MCG - Western Bulldogs 79 - 78 Richmond
Grand Final - MCG - Richmond 79 - 77 Western Bulldogs

Is this because it views the QF as a Bulldogs home game while the GF is viewed as neutral?

 

[Dirty Bird]

Also, what finals series

1QF - WB def Rich by 1pt
2QF - Syd def Melb by 1pt
1EF - Geel def Bris by 5pts
2EF - WC def PA by 13pts
1SF - Rich def Geel by 11pts
2SF - Melb def WC by 17pts
1PF - WB def Melb by 2pts
2PF - Rich def Syd by 1pt
GF - Rich def WB by 2pts