Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)
- Thread starter Final Siren
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- Aug 18, 2009
- 4,229
- 17,496
- AFL Club
- Richmond
- Thread starter
- #2,177
Great question. It's because I revamped the Home Ground Advantage algorithm over the off-season. COVID provided some pretty good support for the importance of crowd support, so now Squiggle estimates the relative level of fan support for each team.
I haven't actually looked properly to see how much sense this makes in finals, but to explain the results you're seeing, the first game is a Bulldogs home game and the second is a Richmond home game. They're at the same venue, but still, more of the home team's fans turn up in home games. So Richmond get +1 point of HGA in the first and +3 points in the second.
- Aug 18, 2009
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- #2,178
Relatedly, just before COVID, I built a crowd predictor based on some amazing work from Tony Corke (Matter of Stats):
The Predictability of Men’s AFL Crowds Revisited — Matter of Stats
This week the topic of what characteristics of a game of men’s AFL football might be correlated with its attendance was discussed on Twitter, which caused me to review this blog from 2015 where I looked at the same topic.
www.matterofstats.com
This provides a remarkably good estimate of how many people will turn up to each game (and why).
But since crowd numbers immediately plummeted to zero, and are still affected today, it only works as a kind of "what-if" simulator of how many people would have come along to the footy if there had been no pandemic.
For example, Collingwood v Brisbane at Docklands had 28,057. Under normal circumstances, it would have been about 37k:
Code:
$ ./estimate-crowd.pl 6258
Fetching data from Squiggle API...
[6258] 2021 Round 3 Collingwood v Brisbane Lions @ Docklands
+0 Start 0
+36,552 Intercept 36,552
-3,696 Period 32,856
+4,171 Home team (Collingwood) 37,027
+990 Away team (Brisbane Lions) 38,017
+16,073 Home team members (85k) 54,090
+201 Away team members (28k) 54,291
-9,367 Venue (Docklands) 44,924
-1,582 Day of week (Thursday) 43,342
-3,226 Time (19:40) 40,116
+2,242 Time + Day of Week 42,358
-5,791 Month (Apr) 36,567
-1,022 Home is favourite (1) 35,545
+1,573 Home favourite + team 37,118
-38 Favourite strength (2pts) 37,080
+0 Vic rivals 37,080
+0 Same state (VIC/QLD) 37,080
+0 Top 8 (neither) 37,080
+0 Top 8 + Month 37,080Other games in Round 3:
- NTH v BUL was 28k instead of 32k
- ADE v GCS was 30k instead of 43k
- RIC v SYD was 44k instead of 55k
- ESS v STK was 29k instead of 40k
- WCE v PRT was 42k instead of 49k
- CAR v FRE was 25k instead of 29k
- GWS v MEL was 10k, as expected
- GEE v HAW was 50k instead of 63k
Crankyhawk
Hall of Famer
I recall finding from your site something that rated teams vs other teams based on the weeks results (contested win, dishonourable loss) but now can’t find it.
And loved “providence”
- Aug 18, 2009
- 4,229
- 17,496
- AFL Club
- Richmond
- Thread starter
- #2,180
LeverPuller
BigFooty Tanker
- Jun 23, 2011
- 35,112
- 40,636
- AFL Club
- Melbourne
- Other Teams
- Newcastle United Seattle Seahawks
I wasted 11 weekends on Melbourne in 2013. No wonder I have issues.
Forward Press
Hall of Famer
I believe the Melbourne 2013 season review DVD is shown on a loop to terrorist suspects in Guantanamo Bay.
Those two Melbourne wins in 2013 were bloody weird
The first one, in R4, trailed GWS by 19pts at three quarter time then stacked on 12 goals in the last quarter to win by 41. 12 goals! They ended up only averaging 10 goals per game for the year, and kicked 12 in one quarter.
The other, in R14, they kicked a goal with 12 minutes left to go 44 points in front of the Bulldogs, who then kick 7 unanswered goals in 9 minutes of game time, and end up just getting held off in the last minute.
The first one, in R4, trailed GWS by 19pts at three quarter time then stacked on 12 goals in the last quarter to win by 41. 12 goals! They ended up only averaging 10 goals per game for the year, and kicked 12 in one quarter.
The other, in R14, they kicked a goal with 12 minutes left to go 44 points in front of the Bulldogs, who then kick 7 unanswered goals in 9 minutes of game time, and end up just getting held off in the last minute.
SJ
Premium Platinum
I guess grand finals don’t have “home” teams though.
SJ
Premium Platinum
Yes, but the post in question was about crowd support and not ground familiarity.
- Jul 13, 2015
- 38,641
- 43,792
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
Their supporters have wasted 60 years.
Less advantaged than in regular finals due to the GF ticketing allocations.
SJ
Premium Platinum
I didn’t say that. And we were talking about Western Bulldogs v Richmond.
Hawks Eagles Tigers Magpies Bulldogs went on to flags GWS Gold coast Carlton did not . Saints and freo came 'close' -spot the pair
Since 2000 the first group have 12 flags of the 21 flags on offer. no wonder theres still fans of bottoming out -personally I think the era is passed
Toump Ass
The Big Deal
- Jun 14, 2015
- 19,521
- 43,019
- AFL Club
- Melbourne
- Other Teams
- Port Adelaide Power
Love the Dees, what a fn team.
- Aug 18, 2009
- 4,229
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- Richmond
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- #2,193
Richmond 1983-2012 destroyed my faith in the rebuild. Turns out you actually can be bad year after year, with no end in sight, if your club is run by clowns who throw away draft picks. (See also: Gold Coast.)
While the arrangements of clubs in squiggle often looks like a flower or a trumpet, 2021 is starting to look like a swan in flight hmmm
- Sep 7, 2009
- 6,685
- 7,231
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Other Teams
- Real Madrid, Man City, GS Warriors
Squiggle predicts West Coast to finish 8th and travel to the scene of our 2017 EF win over Port in the first week
That is interesting. 4 games in usually sorts things out and 17 teams still rated for the 8 (or second national draft pick up for the taking on a creditable 8 wins) depends how you look at it
- Sep 21, 2004
- 39,843
- 30,042
- AFL Club
- West Coast
- Other Teams
- Norwood & Liverpool.
Andonis1997
Sporting masochist
Oh, we're apparently making finals now according to the Squiggs instead of finishing 9th after a couple of wins. Lemme guess, if we beat Port we'll be minor premiers? 
That utter blasphemy of the Squiggle is not tolerated here, sir.
- Aug 18, 2009
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- Richmond
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- #2,199
That was a ripper weekend for Squiggle. Seven tips and much closer to the actual margins than the market.
The preseason ladder prediction is looking good, too. Missed Sydney, but so did everyone (except Damien Barrett), and it's getting killed by Geelong, but calls are looking good on the Bulldogs, Melbourne, Brisbane, Carlton, and West Coast.
The preseason ladder prediction is looking good, too. Missed Sydney, but so did everyone (except Damien Barrett), and it's getting killed by Geelong, but calls are looking good on the Bulldogs, Melbourne, Brisbane, Carlton, and West Coast.
- Apr 28, 2008
- 12,448
- 9,230
- AFL Club
- West Coast
- Other Teams
- Arsenal Kilmarnock
Imagine if that had been the top 6 in 2004
Bulldogs - 43 years since last granny
Melbourne - 40 years since last flag
Sydney - 71 years since last flag
Richmond - 2 finals series in last 21 seasons
Port - haven't made a granny
Geelong - 41 years since last flag
Not to mention the Bulldogs, Dees, Tiges and Cats all being rubbish the previous season. That finals series would go off!
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