Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

[BigVic]

Squiggle update. Melbourne doing a Richmond circa 2019 finishing 3rd and beating GWS in the GF

 

[catstorm]

View attachment 1959564

Squiggle update. Melbourne doing a Richmond circa 2019 finishing 3rd and beating GWS in the GF

Why did Geelongs Squiggle not move at all after today's result?

They beat the expected score by 32 points, surely that should move them up offensively?

 

[Lia]

We will have altitude sickness at 15th

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Does anyone know if the squiggle accounts for Richmond's injuries or does it simply wait for onfield output?

 

[Millky95]

Does anyone know if the squiggle accounts for Richmond's injuries or does it simply wait for onfield output?

West Coast v Richmond @ Perth Stadium

All 29 models gave Richmond a 50-85% chance of victory over West Coast at Perth Stadium with an average tipped margin of 16 points.

squiggle.com.au

It does based on AFL Player Ratings

 

[DanWCE]

Why did Geelongs Squiggle not move at all after today's result?

They beat the expected score by 32 points, surely that should move them up offensively?

This has been happening on and off for multiple clubs this season. Not sure what's happening exactly.

Kangas, Eagles, Hawks, Dees, Bombers, Crows, Power, Cats, Freo and Dogs all remain in the same position when toggling between R9 and R10

 

[Shane Heard]

Are we getting to a pre lim or what?

I don’t understand the squiggle thing

 

[Millky95]

This has been happening on and off for multiple clubs this season. Not sure what's happening exactly.

Kangas, Eagles, Hawks, Dees, Bombers, Crows, Power, Cats, Freo and Dogs all remain in the same position when toggling between R9 and R10

Weird quirk due to Round 0. If you go back the previous week, they'll move for the following week. It's strange but the positions at the end of the day are for all the games played up until the point

 

[Millky95]

Are we getting to a pre lim or what?

I don’t understand the squiggle thing

Squiggle predicts who will win based on:

• relative points for and against in past number of games with more recent games having a larger impact
• recent advantage at the ground the game is played at
• who is in the best 22 based on AFL player Ratings

Using that information the Squiggle predicts who will win a game. If you score more than what Squiggle expects, you move up on the graph and down if you score less. If you restrict the opposition to less that what Squiggle predicts you move right on the graph and you move left if they score more. On the main graph are the most 20 premiers positions when they won the flag. Ideally, close you are to that top right section of the graph, the better your team is performing.

The Squiggle will use the current position on the chart (and home ground advantage) to then predict who will win each game for the rest of the season and then do the same for the finals. If today for example, Collingwood win with a score line of 130 to 30, they will move up and right whilst Freo move down and left. Then, Squiggle will re-predict the rest of the fixture and finals with the new positions for Freo and Collingwood. Which turns some wins into losses and visa versa.

In terms of Essendon specifically, Squiggle currently rates them as the 13th best side based on it's algorithm. Then, based on the fixture and current wins/losses/draws, it has you finishing the home and away season in 4th, then losing to Sydney in Sydney then Melbourne in Melbourne.

More information can be found here: https://live.squiggle.com.au/#info

 

[Shane Heard]

Squiggle predicts who will win based on:

• relative points for and against in past number of games with more recent games having a larger impact
• recent advantage at the ground the game is played at
• who is in the best 22 based on AFL player Ratings

Using that information the Squiggle predicts who will win a game. If you score more than what Squiggle expects, you move up on the graph and down if you score less. If you restrict the opposition to less that what Squiggle predicts you move right on the graph and you move left if they score more. On the main graph are the most 20 premiers positions when they won the flag. Ideally, close you are to that top right section of the graph, the better your team is performing.

The Squiggle will use the current position on the chart (and home ground advantage) to then predict who will win each game for the rest of the season and then do the same for the finals. If today for example, Collingwood win with a score line of 130 to 30, they will move up and right whilst Freo move down and left. Then, Squiggle will re-predict the rest of the fixture and finals with the new positions for Freo and Collingwood. Which turns some wins into losses and visa versa.

In terms of Essendon specifically, Squiggle currently rates them as the 13th best side based on it's algorithm. Then, based on the fixture and current wins/losses/draws, it has you finishing the home and away season in 4th, then losing to Sydney in Sydney then Melbourne in Melbourne.

More information can be found here: https://live.squiggle.com.au/#info

I still don’t get it..

 

[peetoo]

Bulldogs up there with Sydney? Their biggest move was after beating Richmond. Is that because Richmond beat Sydney?

 

[Millky95]

Bulldogs up there with Sydney? Their biggest move was after beating Richmond. Is that because Richmond beat Sydney?

It's because at the time, Squiggle thought the Bulldogs would win by only 11 points. Since they not only won by 91 points but kept Richmond below their expected score, the Bulldogs got a large movement on the graph

 

[the harry]

Bulldogs up there with Sydney? Their biggest move was after beating Richmond. Is that because Richmond beat Sydney?

Prior to this round it was only the dogs and swans who were top 6 for birth points for and points against.

 

[BigVic]

Squiggle thinks it's 2016 Part 2

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

Prior to this round it was only the dogs and swans who were top 6 for birth points for and points against.

father-son rule?

 

[Rotayjay]

It's a weird position to be in - Squggle is tipping a side (the Western Bulldogs) to finish 8th but also rates them as capable of winning the premiership, comparable to Sydney in attack and defence. Essendon are sitting second on the ladder, but Squggle rates them as a very mediocre team.

Rather than a flaw, I think this situation shows Squiggle's advantage: it can capture teams' relative strengths right now despite where they sit on the ladder. The ladder is important, of course, but it can be deceiving if a team keeps winning or losing close games, or has an easy or hard fixture.

 

[bloodsbigot]

It's a weird position to be in - Squggle is tipping a side (the Western Bulldogs) to finish 8th but also rates them as capable of winning the premiership, comparable to Sydney in attack and defence.

So squiggle takes umpiring into account? Interesting.

 

[deck]

It's a weird position to be in - Squggle is tipping a side (the Western Bulldogs) to finish 8th but also rates them as capable of winning the premiership, comparable to Sydney in attack and defence.

The problem with this is the Dogs as they sit now are the definition of front runners. They are smashing the bottom teams but can't beat the top teams. So the metric is flawed as there attack and defence looking good is based of smashing the bottom teams.

Why there last 2 games against competitive opposition has looked better. There early form against the top teams was ordinary.

 

[the harry]

It's a weird position to be in - Squggle is tipping a side (the Western Bulldogs) to finish 8th but also rates them as capable of winning the premiership, comparable to Sydney in attack and defence. Essendon are sitting second on the ladder, but Squggle rates them as a very mediocre team.

Rather than a flaw, I think this situation shows Squiggle's advantage: it can capture teams' relative strengths right now despite where they sit on the ladder. The ladder is important, of course, but it can be deceiving if a team keeps winning or losing close games, or has an easy or hard fixture.

Essendon are a mediocre team. Wins against the bottom six and a percentage that 10+ teams have a better one

 

[maddog37]

So squiggle takes umpiring into account? Interesting.

 

[Deadly Darcy]

So squiggle takes umpiring into account? Interesting.

You know we’ll just pay them again.

No cup for you!!

 

[bloodsbigot]

You know we’ll just pay them again.

No cup for you!!

It's lovely that dogs supporters proudly admit that any past and future success for their club is dependent on umpires and 'being first to the ball.'

 

[maddog37]

It's lovely that dogs supporters proudly admit that any past and future success for their club is dependent on umpires and 'being first to the ball.'

 

[BigVic]

Gets even weirder with Squiggle predicting a non-Victorian preliminary final and a NSW-QLD grand final featuring Brisbane and Sydney at the MCG

 

[Engimal v3]

How do I view the classic Squiggle view? I was searching around on the website and couldn't view it.