The Statistics Thread

[Virgin Dog]

Cool, how you finding learning r? It's on my list of things to learn... maybe some day haha. It can do some pretty powerful stuff.

In a similar vein, they've been tracking a quadruple double on the main board for some time: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/quadruple-double.364431

That one is based on kicks, handballs, marks and tackles. I'm not sure exactly how many have managed it, but there's not many. I think Dunkley is our best bet currently. Daniel Cross used to be decent at them as a good marking inside mid.

It's definitely interesting! I predominantly use SAS at work, which is vastly different both in terms of the language style, and the visualisation approaches. It's part of the reason why I wanted to learn R - try diversify my skill set a bit, and then makes it easier learning other languages. Once I'm comfortable enough with R, I wanted to move on to Python (which will be far more practical for my work anyway).

Thanks for the link, didn't know about that.

I'm pretty confident any of Bont, Macrae, Smith and Dunkley are capable of achieving it

 

[bobs head soup]

Only 3 players have averaged over 6 score involvements per game this year; Tom Hawkins 7.1, Christian Petracca 6.4 and Lachie Hunter 6.4.

 

[worbod]

Years where it took last-round results to determine whether the Bulldogs would play finals:

Year	Finals system	Did we play finals?
1928	4	no
1931	4	no
1942	4	yes
1944	4	yes
1945	4	no
1948	4	yes
1951	4	yes
1954	4	yes
1955	4	no
1956	4	yes
1961	4	yes
1975	5	no
1976	5	yes
1984	5	no
1986	5	no
1987	5	no
1988	5	no
2005	8	no
2017	8	no
2019	8	yes
2020	8	yes

 

[dogwatch]

Years where it took last-round results to determine whether the Bulldogs would play finals:

Year	Finals system	Did we play finals?
1928	4	no
1931	4	no
1942	4	yes
1944	4	yes
1945	4	no
1948	4	yes
1951	4	yes
1954	4	yes
1955	4	no
1956	4	yes
1961	4	yes
1975	5	no
1976	5	yes
1984	5	no
1986	5	no
1987	5	no
1988	5	no
2005	8	no
2017	8	no
2019	8	yes
2020	8	yes

Amazing stuff. Thanks for posting.
Even more amazing to see that our place in the 1954 finals was in doubt until the last H&A round.

So on average - counting good years, bad years and even wooden spoon years - we are chewing our nails in the final H&A round once in every 4.6 years. Over 96 seasons it happened on 21 occasions - we made the finals 10 of those times and missed out 11 times.

No wonder we're a bunch of neurotics.

 

[X_box_X]

Not surprisingly, our record in the final third of the season has historically been quite good under Bevo.



The above chart shows our record in the final seven home and away rounds of all six seasons under Bevo. We have an overall record of 26-16 with a fairly healthy percentage. This is encouraging because it shows momentum building towards the business end of the season.

 

[Snarls Barkley]

 

[Glaeken Oracle]

Years where it took last-round results to determine whether the Bulldogs would play finals:

Year	Finals system	Did we play finals?
1928	4	no
1931	4	no
1942	4	yes
1944	4	yes
1945	4	no
1948	4	yes
1951	4	yes
1954	4	yes
1955	4	no
1956	4	yes
1961	4	yes
1975	5	no
1976	5	yes
1984	5	no
1986	5	no
1987	5	no
1988	5	no
2005	8	no
2017	8	no
2019	8	yes
2020	8	yes

Not quite accurate. 1987 we needed to def Dees last round to get in. We failed.

Edit: just re-read your post, I thought “no” meant last round wasn’t a decider, sorry.

2005 almost qualifies, with one of the worst free kicks in recorded history in round 21 gifting the game to the Dees, and ending our finals chances.

 

[Fossie 32]

Not quite accurate. 1987 we needed to def Dees last round to get in. We failed.

Edit: just re-read your post, I thought “no” meant last round wasn’t a decider, sorry.

2005 almost qualifies, with one of the worst free kicks in recorded history in round 21 gifting the game to the Dees, and ending our finals chances.

Was 2005 when that douche took a dive against Skip in the ruck contest and got a goal to win it? That sucked

 

[Bulldog Brent]

Was 2005 when that douche took a dive against Skip in the ruck contest and got a goal to win it? That sucked

Is there a close up video of that free? I was high up in the Great Southern Stand and have a hazy memory other than a sick feeling in the stomach.

 

[X_box_X]

Was 2005 when that douche took a dive against Skip in the ruck contest and got a goal to win it? That sucked

Yep. We were 22 points up as time on began. I seem to recall a player got injured half way through the final term when we had all the momentum. There was a two or three minute delay, and that halted our momentum.

 

[X_box_X]

Is there a close up video of that free? I was high up in the Great Southern Stand and have a hazy memory other than a sick feeling in the stomach.

2:15:55 of that clip.

 

[ossie_21]

Is there a close up video of that free? I was high up in the Great Southern Stand and have a hazy memory other than a sick feeling in the stomach.

Last Two Mins: Melb v WB, 2005 - White delight with finals on the line

Neale Daniher unable to contain his excitement as the Demons snare a top-eight spot at the expense of the Bulldogs in Round 21, 2005

www.afl.com.au

Skipper bumped White but it was Minson that went up, but back in those days I’m not sure what the rules were for ruck contests. The umpire paid the free for in the back though when it was shoulder to shoulder, awful call.

All good to point the finger there, but Cooney standing around with nobody on the mark only to get the kick spoilt was stupid AF... he could have just ran down the line and launched a kick to out the play on the wing

 

[Fossie 32]

Is there a close up video of that free? I was high up in the Great Southern Stand and have a hazy memory other than a sick feeling in the stomach.

Disgusting effort by White and crap decision by the ump. Ran into Skip who was looking at the ball and bounced off him and fell over. Not a great effort by Cooney to stuff around with the ball for ages allowing Davey to come in and force a throw in too.

 

[Glaeken Oracle]

Should never have let Dees get that close, but that free to White is enough to build conspiracies around.

 

[BarryMorgan]

Interesting to see Alex Keath figuring among the top speeds clocked by any Bulldog in 2020 - certainly wouldn’t have picked him to be up there.

 

[Hard Ball Get]

Longest time difference for x players appearing in the same team:

x	Days	Club	Year	Round	Year	Round	Players
1	8092	Ess	1993	2	2015	9	Fletcher
2	6237	St.K	1905	14	1922	18	Lever, McNamara
3	5284	Carl	2006	1	2020	18	Betts, Murphy, Simpson
4	4907	Ess	1978	1	1991	EF	Daniher, Heard, Madden, Watson
5	4172	St.K	2002	1	2013	23	Blake, Hayes, Koschitzke, Milne, Riewoldt
6	4150	St.K	2002	4	2013	23	Blake, Dal Santo, Hayes, Koschitzke, Milne, Riewoldt
7	3717	Geel	2002	14	2012	EF	Bartel, Chapman, Corey, Enright, Hunt, Kelly, Scarlett
8	3710	Geel	2002	14	2012	23	Bartel, Chapman, Corey, Enright, Hunt, Johnson, Kelly, Scarlett
9	3639	Geel	2002	14	2012	13	Bartel, Chapman, Corey, Enright, Hunt, Johnson, Kelly, Scarlett, Wojcinski
10	3374	Geel	2002	14	2011	GF	Bartel, Chapman, Corey, Enright, Hunt, Johnson, Kelly, Ling, Scarlett, Wojcinski
11	3318	Geel	2002	14	2011	20	Bartel, Chapman, Corey, Enright, Hunt, Johnson, Kelly, Ling, Milburn, Scarlett, Wojcinski
12	3206	Geel	2002	14	2011	4	Bartel, Chapman, Corey, Enright, Hunt, Johnson, Kelly, Ling, Milburn, Mooney, Scarlett, Wojcinski
13	2325	Bris	1998	8	2004	GF	Akermanis, Bradshaw, Johnson, Keating, Lappin, Leppitsch, Lynch, McRae, Notting, B.Scott, C.Scott, Voss, White
14	1980	Geel	2005	2	2010	QF	Ablett, Bartel, Byrnes, Chapman, Corey, Enright, Hunt, Kelly, Ling, Mackie, Milburn, Ottens, Scarlett, Wojcinski
15	1939	Coll	2001	7	2006	22	Buckley, Burns, Clement, Didak, Fraser, Holland, Johnson, Licuria, Lockyer, Lonie, O'Bree, Prestigiacomo, Rocca, Tarrant, Wakelin
16	1574	Geel	2006	9	2010	PF	Ablett, Bartel, Byrnes, Chapman, Corey, Enright, Hunt, Johnson, Kelly, Ling, Milburn, Mooney, Ottens, Scarlett, Stokes, Wojcinski
17	1560	Geel	2006	9	2010	QF	Ablett, Bartel, Byrnes, Chapman, Corey, Enright, Hunt, Johnson, Kelly, Ling, Mackie, Milburn, Mooney, Ottens, Scarlett, Stokes, Wojcinski
18	1547	Geel	2006	11	2010	QF	Ablett, Bartel, Blake, Byrnes, Chapman, Corey, Enright, Hunt, Johnson, Kelly, Ling, Mackie, Milburn, Mooney, Ottens, Scarlett, Stokes, Wojcinski
19	1237	Geel	2007	3	2010	QF	Ablett, Bartel, Blake, Byrnes, Chapman, Corey, Enright, Hawkins, Hunt, Kelly, Ling, Mackie, Milburn, Mooney, Ottens, Scarlett, Selwood, Varcoe, Wojcinski
20	1147	Geel	2007	15	2010	QF	Ablett, Bartel, Blake, Chapman, Corey, Enright, Hawkins, Hunt, Johnson, Kelly, Ling, Mackie, Milburn, Mooney, Ottens, Scarlett, Selwood, Stokes, Varcoe, Wojcinski
21	391	Geel	2005	4	2006	7	Ablett, Bartel, Chapman, Corey, Enright, Gardiner, Harley, Hunt, D.Johnson, S.Johnson, Kelly, King, Kingsley, Ling, Milburn, Ottens, Playfair, Riccardi, Rooke, Scarlett, Tenace
22	314	W.B.	2005	10	2006	2	Boyd, Cooney, Cross, Eagleton, Giansiracusa, Gilbee, Grant, Griffen, Hahn, Hargrave, Johnson, Lake, McMahon, Minson, Morgan, Morris, Murphy, Power, Robbins, Skipper, Smith, West

According to this post on the stats board, we have the longest period of time between fielding the exact same 22.

 

[X_box_X]

Wow

 

[Snarls Barkley]

Don’t know how to word this so hopefully it makes sense.

I believe Dahlhaus just joined Whitten as the only Bulldog Grand Finalist to play in multiple Grand Finals.

 

[Bulldog Brent]

Don’t know how to word this so hopefully it makes sense.

I believe Dahlhaus just joined Whitten as the only Bulldog Grand Finalist to play in multiple Grand Finals.

None of the 54 team played in 61 except Whitten?!

 

[Werewolf]

None of the 54 team played in 61 except Whitten?!

Correct. Look at how young the 1961 GF team was (sort by age): https://afltables.com/afl/stats/games/1961/071019610923.html

 

[doggiesin08]

Is there a clean data source for round by round team lineup changes someone knows of? I’m interested to see if there is a big difference in average unforced team changes (i.e. players omitted) following wins by < 1 goal vs losses by < 1 goal.

 

[Oliver G]

Is there a clean data source for round by round team lineup changes someone knows of? I’m interested to see if there is a big difference in average unforced team changes (i.e. players omitted) following wins by < 1 goal vs losses by < 1 goal.

I don't believe there is currently, you would have to work it out manually by going through the AFL Team Lineups round by round.

I will say that this is a feature that we are planning on including in AF 2.0 which will be a full rebuild and upgrade of AustralianFootball which we hope will be live in the next year or two.

 

[doggiesin08]

I don't believe there is currently, you would have to work it out manually by going through the AFL Team Lineups round by round.

I will say that this is a feature that we are planning on including in AF 2.0 which will be a full rebuild and upgrade of AustralianFootball which we hope will be live in the next year or two.

Thank you

 

[worbod]

Should never have let Dees get that close, but that free to White is enough to build conspiracies around.

If you look closely you can see White jumping out from behind a grassy knoll.

 

[Sentinel]

According to this post on the stats board, we have the longest period of time between fielding the exact same 22.

Remarkably, this Bulldogs 22 (of round 10 2005 & rounds 1-2 2006) is the only instance in 124 years of VFL/AFL history of a completely identical lineup playing from one season to the next.

There's always that stat brought up each year of 'no complete premiership lineup has ever played together again' - in reality no lineup from any team, from any round, from any year, has ever played together again across different seasons besides this one.

An older post I'd made about this:

For some perspective, a few stats on the players who played or missed those games which show how extraordinary this is:

- Players who played in 2005 but missed round 10: Ray (played 14 games in 2005 out of a possible 22), Birrs (12), Street (11), Rawlings (10), Faulkner (8), Bowden (8), Bandy (7), Darcy (6) plus 5 others who played 5 or less.
- Players who played in 2006 but missed rounds 1 & 2: Street (played 21 games in 2006 out of a possible 24), Ray (21), Montgomery (17), Wight (8) plus a 7 others who played 5 or less.
- Players who featured in those 3 games but played less than half of the games in either season: Morgan (only 4 games in 2005 and 3 in 2006), Skipper (9 games in 2005), Bob Murphy (9 games in 2006), Power (10 games in 2005), Hahn (11 games in 2006)

Across both seasons Farren Ray

Farren Ray

Age

38

Ht

187cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.0

4star

K

9.9

4star

HB

8.1

5star

M

4.7

4star

T

2.7

4star

CL

1.7

4star

No current season stats available

D

8.2

2star

K

4.6

2star

HB

3.6

3star

M

2.4

3star

T

0.6

3star

played 35 games of a possible 46 and missed all 3 of these matches, Peter Street

Peter Street

Age

44

Ht

211cm

Wt

110kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

6.2

2star

K

2.8

1star

HB

3.4

3star

HO

15.9

5star

No current season stats available

D

3.2

1star

K

1.0

1star

HB

2.2

2star

HO

8.2

5star

played 32 and missed them too. On the other hand, Adam Morgan

Adam Morgan

Age

43

Ht

195cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

5.5

1star

K

3.3

1star

HB

2.2

2star

M

1.7

2star

T

1.5

3star

No current season stats available

D

4.4

1star

K

2.8

1star

HB

1.6

2star

M

1.2

2star

T

0.6

3star

played just 7 games across both seasons but featured in all of the 3 matches.

On their own none of these player statistics are at all remarkable, but the fact they all needed to coincide for this to have occured shows just how amazing it is and why its only happened once before.

Obviously nowhere near as extreme but it reminds me of the incredible number of unique ways to shuffle a deck of cards. Little wonder no premiership side has never again played before given it's so difficult to get a 22 from any team in any round to play together again in another season.