Autopsy The Stats Don’t Lie: VicBIAS By The Numbers - An Empirical Analysis

Do you agree there is inherent umpiring bias toward Vic based teams?

  • I barrack for a Vic based team: Yes, always has been, always will be. Suck it up.

  • I barrack for a Vic based team: Yes. It’s a disgrace. I demand a fairer comp.

  • I barrack for a Vic based team: No. It’s a myth. Stats are the work of the devil.

  • I barrack for a non-Vic based team: Lol. Tell me something I don’t know.

  • I barrack for a non-Vic team: I like to cry about anything to do with the AFL because they are just

Results are only viewable after voting.

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The 747 said:
Geelong do well now with players wanting to live in a regional area. They did not do well a while ago when nobody wanted to live in a regional area, was my point.
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This is absolutely right...why anyone would want to live in Melbourne proper these days is beyond me. The Cats have done well to bring players down there given the lifestyle benefits. Note that Geelong Surf Coast and Bellarine areas are not far behind Melbourne with property developers wantonly destroying the livability of the region courtesy of corrupt federal and state governments.
 
juss said:
That's the biggest example of in game umpiring, but on the other side there's plenty of examples of home bias interstate umpiring.

Eagles games anyone? There was a period there you couldn't buy a free kick at Optus.
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Do you remember when they sent victorian umpires over to “solid t it out” and the free kick count went even more in our fav out?

Got times maaaaan.
 
Anyway, if there was a large scale systemic impact, we'd see it reflected in the only real stats that matter.

Statistically, VIC clubs should be winning 10/16 flags prior to GC and GWS establishing themselves and now it should be approximately 10/18 or 55% of flags.

It's never going to work out exactly right as there's other variables, but since 1990 VIC teams have won 62.5% of flags, and given it should have statistically been 60% most of that time, we're not really far off.

We may very well have an interstate team winning the flag this year too which would further even it up.

Effectively, we aren't really seeing a statistically significant difference in the ultimate measure in our game of success which is premierships.
 

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How is the whole narrative, effectively by everyone, that you won't beat Collingwood on the MCG, or Melbourne are Collingwood's biggest threat because of the MCG factor, not a clear, plain as day, simple to understand reflection of the fact that the Grand Final is played at a venue that significantly favours Victorian teams, and even more specifically MCG tenants or those that play there regularly? How? I mean there are idiots on here like Grin, Doddlebanger and Lizzie who'd make the chaps on trial at Nuremberg seem less likely of plausible deniability.
 
kranky al said:
Wow, by that logic the eagles should get a wild card into finals.

Just because we’ve been trash all year doesn’t mean we can’t beat finalists
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Indeed it doesn't. But even though your club gets significant unsporting advantages in the H&A season, it still couldn't make it off the bottom of the table.
I strongly agree that you are convinced that the only reason the Eagles aren't contending this year is because of unbearable Vic-bias :thumbsu:
 
juss said:
Anyway, if there was a large scale systemic impact, we'd see it reflected in the only real stats that matter.

Statistically, VIC clubs should be winning 10/16 flags prior to GC and GWS establishing themselves and now it should be approximately 10/18 or 55% of flags.

It's never going to work out exactly right as there's other variables, but since 1990 VIC teams have won 62.5% of flags, and given it should have statistically been 60% most of that time, we're not really far off.

We may very well have an interstate team winning the flag this year too which would further even it up.

Effectively, we aren't really seeing a statistically significant difference in the ultimate measure in our game of success which is premierships.
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Why should it be Victorian flags? Why not non expansion teams? I.e not GWS or GC? No flags to either GC or GWS and two non Vic premiers since 2007.
 
Papa G said:
How is the whole narrative, effectively by everyone, that you won't beat Collingwood on the MCG, or Melbourne are Collingwood's biggest threat because of the MCG factor, not a clear, plain as day, simple to understand reflection of the fact that the Grand Final is played at a venue that significantly favours Victorian teams, and even more specifically MCG tenants or those that play there regularly? How? I mean there are idiots on here like Grin, Doddlebanger and Lizzie who'd make the chaps on trial at Nuremberg seem less likely of plausible deniability.
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If only you had some evidence to counter these idiots who so unfairly resort to statistics and basic facts to utterly destroy your victim narrative.

Must be so frustrating.
 
juss said:
Anyway, if there was a large scale systemic impact, we'd see it reflected in the only real stats that matter.

Statistically, VIC clubs should be winning 10/16 flags prior to GC and GWS establishing themselves and now it should be approximately 10/18 or 55% of flags.

It's never going to work out exactly right as there's other variables, but since 1990 VIC teams have won 62.5% of flags, and given it should have statistically been 60% most of that time, we're not really far off.

We may very well have an interstate team winning the flag this year too which would further even it up.

Effectively, we aren't really seeing a statistically significant difference in the ultimate measure in our game of success which is premierships.
Click to expand...
Yes we are….
 
Grin said:
Indeed it doesn't. But even though your club gets significant unsporting advantages in the H&A season, it still couldn't make it off the bottom of the table.
I strongly agree that you are convinced that the only reason the Eagles aren't contending this year is because of unbearable Vic-bias :thumbsu:
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No, as I said in the post you are replying to we are trash atm.

Like microwaving memberships trash.

Dumping manure trash


Just not piddling on the players in the player race trash.


Oh and no 1 spot sure seems to be a vic dominated affair doesnt it?

18123AA4-74A6-48E1-8EAD-1E5C91AB52A1.jpeg


You would think with that MASSIVE home ground advantage (that would have mystically disappeared for the day if adelaide had have played richmond in adelaide on gf day 2017) that interstate teams would dominate the top spot.

But no its 2:1 vic teams….
 

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Grin said:
What a load of utter rubbish, from a bad sport and sore loser.
Have a bit of pride and self esteem you childish sook.
You sound like kranky al

Richmond were at the start of a 4 year era of domination. Adelaide were on their way to years of oblivion. Richmond were the better team on the day, by far. Your club imploded with its toxic pop psychology.

Richmond would have handed Adelaide's arse to it no matter where that game was played.
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We “handed your arse” (?) to you at Adelaide Oval the following season, when we were mid-implosion.

Grand Final Adelaide before imploding would’ve had no trouble.
 
kranky al said:
No, as I said in the post you are replying to we are trash atm.

Like microwaving memberships trash.

Dumping manure trash


Just not piddling on the players in the player race trash.


Oh and no 1 spot sure seems to be a vic dominated affair doesnt it?

View attachment 1786848


You would think with that MASSIVE home ground advantage (that would have mystically disappeared for the day if adelaide had have played richmond in adelaide on gf day 2017) that interstate teams would dominate the top spot.

But no its 2:1 vic teams….
Click to expand...
Geelong are a team with proper home ground advantage dude, they are not a Melbourne team.

Melbourne teams 16
Non-Melbourne teams 18

Despite Melbourne teams making up 55% of the competition in that time.

Another Kranky stats special :$
 
kranky al said:
Oh and no 1 spot sure seems to be a vic dominated affair doesnt it?

View attachment 1786848


You would think with that MASSIVE home ground advantage (that would have mystically disappeared for the day if adelaide had have played richmond in adelaide on gf day 2017) that interstate teams would dominate the top spot.

But no its 2:1 vic teams….
Click to expand...

So despite the GF being at the MCG it looks like Non Vic clubs are still batting above their average compared to their home and away position.
 
Papa G said:
How is the whole narrative, effectively by everyone, that you won't beat Collingwood on the MCG, or Melbourne are Collingwood's biggest threat because of the MCG factor, not a clear, plain as day, simple to understand reflection of the fact that the Grand Final is played at a venue that significantly favours Victorian teams, and even more specifically MCG tenants or those that play there regularly? How? I mean there are idiots on here like Grin, Doddlebanger and Lizzie who'd make the chaps on trial at Nuremberg seem less likely of plausible deniability.
Click to expand...
This is hilarious.
Here you are calling people idiots and then pick the 2 worst GF tenants to back up your argument.

1st of all most people would not care if the grand final was moved.

2nd, Melbourne have not won a GF at the G since 1964.
Collingwood lose more than they win, the last 3 times they have played non-Vics they have lost, in fact they haven't beaten them ever.

I think we can deduct who the idiot is.
 
Crow_Magnon said:
This is absolutely right...why anyone would want to live in Melbourne proper these days is beyond me. The Cats have done well to bring players down there given the lifestyle benefits. Note that Geelong Surf Coast and Bellarine areas are not far behind Melbourne with property developers wantonly destroying the livability of the region courtesy of corrupt federal and state governments.
Click to expand...

Depends where you live in Melbourne but yes parts of it are becoming totally choked by people and traffic.
 
Geewizz Dave Warner's horrific away form has aged him quickly. So, take it out on Victorians, why not?
 

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Autopsy The Stats Don’t Lie: VicBIAS By The Numbers - An Empirical Analysis

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