Prediction Top 4 and The Rollercoaster dogs or The Bevo Curse

[dogwatch]

Geelong in 2008 as well.

True, and they didn't even win the flag!

 

[MaxiBont]

I'm so scared that Liam Jones

19

Liam Jones

Age

33

Ht

199cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.4

2star

K

6.5

3star

HB

2.9

3star

M

4.3

4star

T

2.0

4star

MG

134.5

2star

D

7.6

2star

K

6.1

3star

HB

1.4

1star

M

4.1

4star

T

1.4

2star

MG

116.3

2star

D

9.4

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

2.0

2star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.2

4star

gets injured that I can't be comfortable with us getting top 4. One injury to him and I think our quality in defence drastically decreases.

 

[mcgleereturns]

I'm so scared that Liam Jones

19

Liam Jones

Age

33

Ht

199cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.4

2star

K

6.5

3star

HB

2.9

3star

M

4.3

4star

T

2.0

4star

MG

134.5

2star

D

7.6

2star

K

6.1

3star

HB

1.4

1star

M

4.1

4star

T

1.4

2star

MG

116.3

2star

D

9.4

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

2.0

2star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.2

4star

gets injured that I can't be comfortable with us getting top 4. One injury to him and I think our quality in defence drastically decreases.

Why did you say that?!?!


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[hutchy31]

I'm so scared that Liam Jones gets injured that I can't be comfortable with us getting top 4. One injury to him and I think our quality in defence drastically decreases.

This is the issue - unlike some of the other top 4 contenders I'm not sure our system stacks up if one or more of a few critical players misses out for a period of time (Bont, Libba, English, L.Jones, Naughton, maybe Dale/Richards). Maybe I'm wrong, hope we don't need to find out though. Interestingly, we'll find out how well Melbourne cope without Oliver for a month or so, which they haven't had to do before (although they have admittedly come through when Gawn, May, Lever, Viney and others have been out so maybe it's not a big deal).

Given a decent run with injury, I agree with a few of the previous posters who have said the run home is fairly benign - our toughest part of the draw was undoubtedly the first half and that's been decent at this stage (excepting the first two rounds).

You'd think 17-6 is a certainty for top four, 16-7 with a decent percentage potentially sneaks in depending on results between the other finals teams. I can't be confident that this team can go 10-3 or even 9-4 despite the draw, but the opportunity is undoubtedly there.

I thought a few weeks ago if we went 4-1 from the Carlton/Adelaide/GC/Geelong/Port run of games that would cement us as contenders despite the bad start. 2-1 over the next three games gives us that, and given the final ten games I'd take that right now. 3-0 and the lid will likely be off.

 

[Northernsoul74]

I'm so scared that Liam Jones gets injured that I can't be comfortable with us getting top 4. One injury to him and I think our quality in defence drastically decreases.

Delete.

 

[geoffjennings79]

Delete.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

Must win game if we are aiming for top 4.

 

[lachy]

I'm not convinced we have a top 4 list but keep winning to give ourselves an opportunity

On SM-G996B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[LittleG]

Really confident about the remainder of this year. Our Key players are obvious BUT I would also include A Jones as a key to our success or failure. Have him for the whole year and we have a pressure forward that improves our performance so much.

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

A bit of analysis on who the contenders play for the rest of the H&A.

Collingwood
Danger games: Dees (H), Bulldogs (A), Port (A), Lions (Marvel)
Slight risk of an upset: Crows (H), Cats (H), Suns (A)

Melbourne
Danger games: Pies ( H), Cats ( GMHBA), Saints (A), Brisbane (H)
Slight risk of an upset: GWS (Darwin), Crows ( H), Hawks (H), Tiges (H)

Port
Danger games: Bulldogs (A), Pies (H), Crows ( H), Freo ( A), Cats (GMHBA)
Slight risk of an upset: Cats (H), Essendon (A)

Bulldogs
Danger games: Cats (H), Port (H), Pies (H), Cats (GMHBA)
Slight chance of an upset: Freo (H), Essendon (A), Giants ( Mars), Richmond ( H), Swans (A)

I think the young and upcoming teams like Hawks, Adelaide and Gold Coast will drop off. Teams that are weakened by injuries like Swans, Cats and GWS can find some form. But we are well placed to at the very least make finals, but hopefully make top 4.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

When I started this thread after the Adelaide win we were a big chance for top 4 but history under Bevo was against us and it did not take long for the Bevo curse to hit.

 

[_Mike_]

IMO we’re not finishing top 4 or even top 6 at the current rate

 

[The Inbetweener]

If we lose on Friday you can just about put a line through this one, we’d only have max 1 more loss up our sleeve for the rest of the year.

 

[Dogs Rule]

If we lose on Friday you can just about put a line through this one, we’d only have max 1 more loss up our sleeve for the rest of the year.

As expected. I swear another coach and we would have made multiple top 4's since 2017.

 

[_Cerberus_]

Would have made top four any other year with the wins in 2016, but it just happened to be a very even year up top. Where little separated the top teams on the ladder.

SHOULD have in 2021 when on top of the ladder with like three or four rounds left vs favorable teams

And this year, soft run home. All we needed to do was win two one of Suns or Cats. We cans till redeem ourselves for those loses, but will need to beat Port and Pies. Still in for a chance. But we will find a way to piss it away surely.

 

[NBates]

If we lose on Friday you can just about put a line through this one, we’d only have max 1 more loss up our sleeve for the rest of the year.

A very measured post, except you should replace if with when

 

[CarnTheScray]

We can only really have one more loss or it’s (slim) top 4 chances over.

Time to go on a Richmond 2019 win streak. In my dreams.

 

[The Inbetweener]

We can only really have one more loss or it’s (slim) top 4 chances over.

Time to go on a Richmond 2019 win streak. In my dreams.

Our only real chance is to only drop 2 games (Pies and Cats) and hope brisbane lose a few 50/50 matches.

We’d then need to win every other game we’d be favs in which is unfortunately unlikely

 

[_Mike_]

If we lose to North you can put a strike through playing in the finals this year

 

[_Cerberus_]

If we lose to North you can put a strike through playing in the finals this year

We have only had two games where we have won by a decent margin on the scoreboard all season. So of course we end up getting North when they are no longer the easy beats they were in the first few weeks of the season. They have made teams earn their wins during the past four weeks.

Given how we have kept teams in it for most of our games. This game strikes me as more of a danger game with a potential for an upset, as opposed to the game where we smashed them during the preseason. If we lose this one, we deserve to have a line through our names as potential contenders.

 

[MaxiBont]

Back on the menu?

 

[Bald]

Back on the menu?

We’d need something a bit miraculous. Melbourne and St Kilda to draw and us to have a decent win against the pies would be nice..

 

[Sentinel]

We’d need something a bit miraculous. Melbourne and St Kilda to draw and us to have a decent win against the pies would be nice..

Bookies currently have us at 2nd favourites at $5 to pinch 4th spot (we were $10 prior to this weekend). Melbourne favourites at $1.53, with Adelaide, Geelong, Essendon and St Kilda following.

This weekend will be telling, if we somehow beat Collingwood and Melbourne lose then we'd almost move ahead of Melbourne as odds on to take it but its unlikely both results go that way.

 

[Unorth]

We’d need something a bit miraculous. Melbourne and St Kilda to draw and us to have a decent win against the pies would be nice..

Most likely we would need to either go undefeated or drop 1 game at most from here on out - unless the Dees really go to shit.

Tough tough ask with Collingwood, Geelong away and Sydney away.

If 4th (or if things really go south, 8th) spot came down to the final round at Geelong I’d be sick…

 

[BEaston]

I honestly don't know how we're 5th