Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 5 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[dogwatch]

Sometimes you have to be bold though.

In 2014 we made twelve list changes. With those changes we ended up with six premiership players and a future All Australian gun that didn't play in the premiership year. Boyd, Hamling, Biggs, McLean, Daniel, Cordy and Dale. If we didn't make all those changes maybe we don't end up with one or two of those guys and the premiership never happens.

We really are at a stage where we need more of a list turnover and an injection of youth in the side. Not saying we get rid of 12 players, but we do need a good list turnover.

That was a most unusual and chaotic year though. Our hand was forced by Griffen walking out, closely followed by MacCartney, and so we took a unique and bold opportunity to grab former #1 pick Boyd. (At the cost us some additional high draft currency that seemed excessive at the time - pick #6 I think).

Griffen and Higgins (RFA) wanted out.
Pretty sure we'd already told Cooney he was not wanted before that all blew up.
Liam Jones was yet to find his mojo as a defender ... but I can't remember if he jumped or was pushed.
Tom Williams, Gia and Tutt all retired.
The others we delisted were definitely going nowhere (Mark Austin, Christian Howard, Alex Greenwood and Tom Young). If Dalrymple had no confidence in that year's draft perhaps he could have kept Austin as a break-glass option but the rest had no prospects at all. So that's at least nine where I'd say our hand was forced.

In addition to the arrivals you mentioned we promoted known quantities Jong and Redpath from the rookie list and we drafted Lukas Webb, Declan Hamilton and picked up Jordan Kelly as a rookie.

As it panned out Dalrymple did a great job in the draft and we picked up some gems but it's not a strategy you'd choose to embark on in any normal year. Let's hope this year doesn't end up like 2014! (Unless of course it also means we win a flag two years later ).

 

[glenashley]

Greene kicked 3 for the Hawks today.

Like many on here, can't believe we let him go....

 

[_Cerberus_]

Greene kicked 3 for the Hawks today.

Like many on here, can't believe we let him go....

He is in a better forward system on a bottom two team. $100 he would be kicking less for us.

 

[Sentinel]

Greene kicked 3 for the Hawks today.

Like many on here, can't believe we let him go....

I can. He played 5 games in 4 years at the club, including none in his last 2 years. He was also overlooked by all AFL clubs in the 3 drafts after his delisting until being finally picked up this preseason.

There's a holding cost to keeping any player on the list who may not develop or get their body right, I'm not sure if Greene showed enough of either to suggest we should have held him - even with the benefit of hindsight I believe the club was right to let him go when they did. Good on him for re-entering the system years later and making the most of it.

 

[Golden_6]

Greene kicked 3 for the Hawks today.

Like many on here, can't believe we let him go....

Greene wouldn’t get a sniff in our side. He’s a full forward that happens to be too short and too skinny, is a mark and goal play that offers effectively zero forward pressure. He’s playing in a side with literally no key forwards.

If Khamis isn’t playing, Greene certainly wouldn’t come close either.

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

Wasn’t there some discipline issues with Greene?

 

[Northernsoul74]

Wasn’t there some discipline issues with Greene?

Don’t believe so. Are you thinking of Lynch? He’s a different unit.

 

[Dogs5416]

It's not just the question of working out who to cut in 2024.

If you de-list 9 in one year you run out of quality in the draft and the trade market well before you've filled all your spots. You can hope to fill 6 or maybe 7 spots with reasonable prospects but the last few are going to be real speculators.

Best to hold a few spots for the following year when you won't have to go as deep into the unknown at the bottom end of the draft.

It 100% is a question of who you cut in 2024. List management requires forward thinking and planning. If you cut too deep in one year you end up with no one to cut the next. Draftees get two year contracts so can’t cut them in 2024. The rest of the list you wanted to keep and or are contracted. So you have to retire or trade players.

Power would already be planning for 2024 list changes in line with who is coming out of contract. You are only cutting that deep for a full rebuild and you are trading players like Higgins, Jones, Griffen etc

 

[Mofra]

I can. He played 5 games in 4 years at the club, including none in his last 2 years. He was also overlooked by all AFL clubs in the 3 drafts after his delisting until being finally picked up this preseason.

There's a holding cost to keeping any player on the list who may not develop or get their body right, I'm not sure if Greene showed enough of either to suggest we should have held him - even with the benefit of hindsight I believe the club was right to let him go when they did. Good on him for re-entering the system years later and making the most of it.

Quoted for accuracy.
If anything, I think we have a habit of keeping players a year too long rather than cutting too early. Full respect to the kids but Prudden and Porter were nowhere near it the year before we let them go (Prudden ruined by injury, in fairness).

 

[Doggies_13]

Are any of these players going to improve on their current career output:
McComb - does not look like much scope to improve.
McLean - injuries have put him back a long way not sure he can get back to what he was.
Scott - at the best level he can be.
Roarke smith

37

Roarke Smith

Age

28

Ht

184cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.7

3star

K

5.6

2star

HB

6.1

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

1.7

4star

CL

0.4

2star

No current season stats available

D

12.0

3star

K

5.8

3star

HB

6.2

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.6

4star

CL

0.2

2star

- at the best level he can be
TOB - best level he can be
Crozier - regressed from his best
Hannan - best he is going to be

May improve but feel level they reach won’t be more than bottom of 22 to depth.
West - seems to have stagnated, is a mid trying to be a forward.
Garcia - shows potential but constant injuries and size issues
Sweet - solid back up won’t take the step to be a number one ruck
McNiel - think he can be solid depth but won’t progress above that
Vandermeer - bottom 22 depth player injuries preventing further improvement.

In no way calling for us to move on the 5 with scope to improve but that list of the first 7 with no scope to improve output we need to be moving some of them on because then you look at the following guys reaching the end.

Bruce, Keath, Duryea all likely to finish in the next season or two.

Need to replace the guys with no scope to improve who are depth at best. This 7 plus the 3 near the end need to be moved on in the next two off seasons. Bringing in talent from the draft and some smart best 22 trades.

 

[Testekill]

Wasn’t there some discipline issues with Greene?

Don't think so, he was pretty injury stricken during his career with us.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Greene always had the forward nous of an AFL player, but from memory a combination of injuries, together with poor defensive pressure/intent and a limited athletic profile stopped him from getting a game. I suspect it will be the same long-term as the Hawks improve and look to move past him, but who knows - Ben Brown

50

Ben Brown

Age

31

Ht

200cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.7

3star

K

7.7

3star

HB

3.0

3star

M

4.8

5star

T

1.2

3star

G

2.2

5star

D

7.9

2star

K

6.3

3star

HB

1.6

1star

M

3.7

4star

T

0.9

2star

G

1.0

4star

D

8.0

2star

K

4.6

2star

HB

3.4

3star

M

4.4

4star

T

1.4

4star

G

1.2

4star

carved out a good career as a similar (although obviously taller) player. Ferg was really well-loved around the club I believe, so hope he makes it.

 

[Nat Fyfe]

Greene always had the forward nous of an AFL player, but from memory a combination of injuries, together with poor defensive pressure/intent and a limited athletic profile stopped him from getting a game. I suspect it will be the same long-term as the Hawks improve and look to move past him, but who knows - Ben Brown carved out a good career as a similar (although obviously taller) player. Ferg was really well-loved around the club I believe, so hope he makes it.

He is and always will be a one dimensional player, reminds me of the Waterman brothers. They're the type of player who have one trick (in Ferg's case, leading into space and kicking a goal from the set shot - otherwise isn't tall or quick, applies zero pressure and can't take a contested grab in a flooded forward 50). As the Hawks improve their structure, he'll struggle to get a game. These types of medium forwards thrive in poor quality teams, like we saw with Gowers, Wallis and Lloyd. Seems like a great dude, but wouldn't get a game with us, and that's saying something

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Quoted for accuracy.
If anything, I think we have a habit of keeping players a year too long rather than cutting too early. Full respect to the kids but Prudden and Porter were nowhere near it the year before we let them go (Prudden ruined by injury, in fairness).

Declan Hamilton got a third year too, without playing a single game in any of his 3 AFL seasons.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

This idea of mass list turnover is predicated on being able to sell a role in the best 22 to players lacking opportunity at other clubs finishing higher on the ladder. Like we were able to sell to Biggs and Hamling at the end of 2014.

Finding multiple players lacking opportunities might be hard, if we need to convince them and their managers that there's spots open for grabs - largely depends on how many games we win and our willingness to make rotations.

Why would someone come to us, for instance, if we win 12 or 13 games and squeeze into finals because the likes of Anthony Scott might find 5% more? Any of those players at other clubs might not think they would get a game here.

 

[maddog37]

Declan Hamilton got a third year too, without playing a single game in any of his 3 AFL seasons.

He was an odd selection in hindsight.

 

[grassman75]

For an average of 7 games per season that's crazy money. North paying $600k for Aiden Corr sounds responsible by comparison.

He does play 22 for Carlton as well remember #McKayConspiracy

 

[grassman75]

He was an odd selection in hindsight.

Wasn't he our standard unknown SA left footer

 

[Sentinel]

Quoted for accuracy.
If anything, I think we have a habit of keeping players a year too long rather than cutting too early. Full respect to the kids but Prudden and Porter were nowhere near it the year before we let them go (Prudden ruined by injury, in fairness).

Yeah plenty of examples of that since 2010 where you wonder who agreed to their final year:

• Fergus Greene - 4 years, 5 games (0 in final 2 seasons)
• James Mulligan - 5 years, 3 games (0 in final season)
• Alex Greenwood - 3 years, 0 games
• Josh Prudden - 5 years, 4 games (0 in final 2 seasons)
• Daniel Pearce - 4 years, 6 games (1 in final 3 seasons)
• Declan Hamilton - 3 years, 0 games
• Brad Lynch - 5 years, 9 games (0 in final 2 seasons)
• Callum Porter - 3 years, 1 game (1 in final season)
• Will Hayes - 3 years, 13 games (2 in final 2 seasons)

 

[adogsfan5]

Bring in Doedee and try and suck a good GWS or GC player out for success. I’d absolutely love to nab someone like a Budarick, Daniels or oHalloran type.

Then hit the draft, blood Gallagher, Busslinger and Clarke as much as possible.

All of this will mean nothing if we have the exact same coaching group though.

 

[Mofra]

Yeah plenty of examples of that since 2010 where you wonder who agreed to their final year:

• Fergus Greene - 4 years, 5 games (0 in final 2 seasons)
• James Mulligan - 5 years, 3 games (0 in final season)
• Alex Greenwood - 3 years, 0 games
• Josh Prudden - 5 years, 4 games (0 in final 2 seasons)
• Daniel Pearce - 4 years, 6 games (1 in final 3 seasons)
• Declan Hamilton - 3 years, 0 games
• Brad Lynch - 5 years, 9 games (0 in final 2 seasons)
• Callum Porter - 3 years, 1 game (1 in final season)
• Will Hayes - 3 years, 13 games (2 in final 2 seasons)

That's a really good summary.
Our list turnover does appear to be a little bit behind some contemporaries. I'd really hope we target some boom or bust types with our rookie draft (especially) yet we do seem to often target "safe" types that lack X factor/one outstanding attribute

No surprise that the one player in that list who did have an outstanding attribute (Ghosty Lynch - kicking skills) played the second most games, behind Hayes who had good-to-outstanding endurance.

 

[weltschmerz]

That's a really good summary.
Our list turnover does appear to be a little bit behind some contemporaries. I'd really hope we target some boom or bust types with our rookie draft (especially) yet we do seem to often target "safe" types that lack X factor/one outstanding attribute

No surprise that the one player in that list who did have an outstanding attribute (Ghosty Lynch - kicking skills) played the second most games, behind Hayes who had good-to-outstanding endurance.

Charlie Parker seemed a boom or bust selection who turned out a bust. I preferred that selection to McComb though.

 

[doggies ftw]

Bring in Doedee and try and suck a good GWS or GC player out for success. I’d absolutely love to nab someone like a Budarick, Daniels or oHalloran type.

Then hit the draft, blood Gallagher, Busslinger and Clarke as much as possible.

All of this will mean nothing if we have the exact same coaching group though.

Yeah Doedee would be fantastic for us, I’d want to take our first two picks to the draft and another haul of 4 or so kids would be good.

Main thing is trying to blood those three later in the year and get as many games into the likes of Cleary, Buku, West, Garcia, Bedendo ( his injury sucks hopefully he’s on the mend) McNeil as possible, whether they make it or not and a few of them probably won’t but we need to at least know if they’re worth investing in and the only way to do that is to see them all got a consistent run at AFL level this year.

Talls like Darcy I’m fine to see play mostly VFL this year, there’s no need to burn him out at AFL level, he will be a star but just needs to work on the body and get consistent game time. His time will come.

Whilst I’d like to keep our draft picks I’d be open to looking at young talent from other clubs too to fill needs, not older list cloggers though. I’d be interested in:

-Elijah Hollands down from GC,

• Lohmann and more than happy to ask the question about Raynor if he’s gettable but obviously unlikely. Devon Robertson
• Bergman

 

[VogonProsthetnic]

Wasn't he our standard unknown SA left footer

James Fuller wasn’t it. A first round pick no less.

 

[Testekill]

James Fuller wasn’t it. A first round pick no less.

Matt Fuller and we took him with a third round pick. Christian Howard was the first rounder from SA.