Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 6 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[_Mike_]

We have two unicorns, English and Darcy. Why can't we come up with a unique game plan that capitalises on their strengths and covers for their weaknesses*, rather than try to shoe-horn them into alternating between traditional ruck and ruck-forward roles?

Because for the last seven years Bevo & the MC have continued with the fallacy that they can mix up player positions with no detriment to the structure/plan.

 

[adogsfan5]

Going to be a fascinating off season for us. Will we try and trade for someone? Or will we purely hit the draft with a view to really hit free agency end of 2025? Interesting times ahead.

 

[Mofra]

Exactly and Sweet would do a job almost as adequately as English. For half the cost.
Opportunity for rucks is all they need.
Meek, Moyle, Briggs, Flynn, Conway, Xerri-, Strauchan are all low price players that when given opportunity shown form.
Personally I would offer English a contract that is fair but low-fair. It forces him to go. We get a good deal, salary cap relief and just recruit a ruck like ones above who cost Jacksh1t

Sweet is nothing like English and just doesn't get involved in transition to help us.
If we had gun wingman we could use Sweet. We don't, so we can't.

Of the players you've named, Strauchan is 'low price' and perhaps Moyle this year (but not next when he moves for opportunity). Maybe Meek. The others, not so much - especially Conway given how Geelong rate him, set for a big increase.

Rucks are expensive. $800k for English would be close to par for a no 1 ruckman at an AFL club, especially given the 2025 TPP is huge compared to just a year or two ago.

 

[VitalDread]

I don't see English going anywhere unless a club last minute over pays the crap out of him.

Plus we would have Darcy as our Number 1 ruck role and Smith shown enough to become a solid AFL ruck

 

[Mofra]

I don't see English going anywhere unless a club last minute over pays the crap out of him.

Plus we would have Darcy as our Number 1 ruck role and Smith shown enough to become a solid AFL ruck

If English did leave I would consider grabbing a ready-made no 1 ruck to be our highest priority.
I'm still on board looking for small-defender though.

 

[Dogs 13]

The opposite of Tim English, Ned Moyle.

Isn’t the opposite of Tim English Jordon Sweet?

Surely the opposite of Tim English is Barnaby French

 

[Mofra]

Surely the opposite of Tim English is Barnaby French

Caleb Daniel?

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Sweet is nothing like English and just doesn't get involved in transition to help us.
If we had gun wingman we could use Sweet. We don't, so we can't.

Of the players you've named, Strauchan is 'low price' and perhaps Moyle this year (but not next when he moves for opportunity). Maybe Meek. The others, not so much - especially Conway given how Geelong rate him, set for a big increase.

Rucks are expensive. $800k for English would be close to par for a no 1 ruckman at an AFL club, especially given the 2025 TPP is huge compared to just a year or two ago.

As Lobb's contract has proven, the supply and demand side of certain positions - market based economics - drives player contracts as much as on-field performance has. It's just hard to see the absence of something is by its very nature harder to understand than something that is tangible. (Abstract thinking, and all that).

There have been many clubs that ultimate success has been failed by not having a body in the ruck, or a structural body up forward. Sydney have won games in recent seasons but it's no surprise their best year is when they put Grundy in the ruck.

Over recent years, they've had Ladhams, Hickey, McLean, Reid, Amartey, Sinclair, even Nick Blakey rucked for a bit, Aliir, Naismith, and even back in 2018 they had Dean Towers ruck for a bit.

Ladhams can't get a game. Hickey was on one leg for the last two years, same with Reid. McLean and Amartey are proving to be better key forwards than they are rucks. Sinclair was gone. Naismith was an immobile ruck. Aliir, Blakey and Towers are obviously not rucks but they also took a meaningful amount of ruck contests.

They've been a highly successful team that probably would have won at least one flag in recent seasons had they simply had a top 10 ruck in the competition - not even a good one, just one that was on average in the top half of the league - in that time.

 

[Mofra]

As Lobb's contract has proven, the supply and demand side of certain positions - market based economics - drives player contracts as much as on-field performance has. It's just hard to see the absence of something is by its very nature harder to understand than something that is tangible. (Abstract thinking, and all that).

There have been many clubs that ultimate success has been failed by not having a body in the ruck, or a structural body up forward. Sydney have won games in recent seasons but it's no surprise their best year is when they put Grundy in the ruck.

Over recent years, they've had Ladhams, Hickey, McLean, Reid, Amartey, Sinclair, even Nick Blakey rucked for a bit, Aliir, Naismith, and even back in 2018 they had Dean Towers ruck for a bit.

Ladhams can't get a game. Hickey was on one leg for the last two years, same with Reid. McLean and Amartey are proving to be better key forwards than they are rucks. Sinclair was gone. Naismith was an immobile ruck. Aliir, Blakey and Towers are obviously not rucks but they also took a meaningful amount of ruck contests.

They've been a highly successful team that probably would have won at least one flag in recent seasons had they simply had a top 10 ruck in the competition - not even a good one, just one that was on average in the top half of the league - in that time.

Yep - and it's not like you can 'hide' rucks with a third man up rule, as we did in 2016.
Bailey Williams (the tall one) has done us a great favour this year by being 'serviceable' enough to support Flynn. It's been a huge driver in Timmy's market value coming back to the pack a bit.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

One thing I want to say about English, which doesn't seme to get enough credit - is that at 33.6% hitouts leading to a hitout to advantage rate, he's rank 1 for any first ruck in the league. (2nd to Darcy but Darcy has a smaller sample size).

For all the criticism of English losing the hitout battle and not being "physical" enough, which I don't necessarily disagree with, there is a direct value in the fact that English leads us to have a positive clearance differential.

If English wasn't a particularly good tap ruck if and when he actually got the hitouts, I think criticism would be more valid. But you have to look at it both sides - English's lack of physicality is potentially not so much as a lack of desire to be physical, but a balancing act to try and get a bit cute with a perfect hitout rather than just running into the opposition. Whether or not it's the right balance is up for debate, but the lack of understanding that it's balanced with actually good tapwork is not fully appreciated here.

 

[go the dogs]

Look at all the hype around TDK and then look at his hit outs. They are worse than Tim and the way he is getting talked about and the money he could earn we should be wrapped to keep tim at 800k for 5 years.
TDK 2 years younger so would need to be AA next year to match Tim last year and i can't see that happening.

 

[BEaston]

One thing I want to say about English, which doesn't seme to get enough credit - is that at 33.6% hitouts leading to a hitout to advantage rate, he's rank 1 for any first ruck in the league. (2nd to Darcy but Darcy has a smaller sample size).

For all the criticism of English losing the hitout battle and not being "physical" enough, which I don't necessarily disagree with, there is a direct value in the fact that English leads us to have a positive clearance differential.

If English wasn't a particularly good tap ruck if and when he actually got the hitouts, I think criticism would be more valid. But you have to look at it both sides - English's lack of physicality is potentially not so much as a lack of desire to be physical, but a balancing act to try and get a bit cute with a perfect hitout rather than just running into the opposition. Whether or not it's the right balance is up for debate, but the lack of understanding that it's balanced with actually good tapwork is not fully appreciated here.

He's always had a high hitout to advantage rate, even going back to his early years.

The issue was he doesn't win enough hitouts to put it to good use. This has improved over the years as he's gotten stronger but probably not at the rate we'd all like.

 

[adogsfan5]

Look at all the hype around TDK and then look at his hit outs. They are worse than Tim and the way he is getting talked about and the money he could earn we should be wrapped to keep tim at 800k for 5 years.
TDK 2 years younger so would need to be AA next year to match Tim last year and i can't see that happening.

TDK is abit of a wrecking ball at the moment when the ball hits the deck. I think that’s why he’s attracting all the love at the moment. And rightly so. I’d kill for that.

 

[goodcop badcop]

The way Lobb is going, I wouldn't want to give up a 2nd rounder for him if I was another club. 32 years old next year with a dud ankle and is less competitive then our main ruck that we keep complaining about.

We got more value out of Dunkley as our 2nd ruck.

 

[mattwa]

It depends where the club sees Darcy being of most value. Could he be the next Max Gawn

11

Max Gawn

Age

32

Ht

209cm

Wt

110kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.1

4star

K

7.4

3star

HB

6.7

4star

CL

2.8

4star

HO

35.3

5star

D

18.5

4star

K

11.5

4star

HB

7.0

4star

CL

3.5

4star

HO

29.2

5star

D

8.4

3star

K

3.6

2star

HB

4.8

4star

CL

1.0

3star

HO

15.6

5star

dominating around the ground or is he a 60 goal KPF who pinch hits in the ruck

 

[go the dogs]

TDK is abit of a wrecking ball at the moment when the ball hits the deck. I think that’s why he’s attracting all the love at the moment. And rightly so. I’d kill for that.

The hype is ridiculous. He hasn't done that much in his career. Tim is solid enough for 800k. people here wanting him dropped and let go i just don't get it.

 

[BulldogMuscle]

Going to be a fascinating off season for us. Will we try and trade for someone? Or will we purely hit the draft with a view to really hit free agency end of 2025? Interesting times ahead.

From what I've been told, we're trying to bring in a big gun + one or two others.
Although, again from what I'm told, everybody we target seems to be re-signing.

 

[geoffjennings79]

From what I've been told, we're trying to bring in a big gun + one or two others.
Although, again from what I'm told, everybody we target seems to be re-signing.

So we'll settle for targetting the next Tim O'Brien or Rory Lobb who plays well against us in a late season game?
(I know we do more due diligence than that, it's just a suspiciously easy conspiracy theory to run with... )

 

[BulldogMuscle]

So we'll settle for targetting the next Tim O'Brien or Rory Lobb who plays well against us in a late season game?
(I know we do more due diligence than that, it's just a suspiciously easy conspiracy theory to run with... )

Sadly I wouldn't say your that far off...

 

[SPower]

Does anyone know if Colin Young or his group manage any.other doggy lads??

 

[adogsfan5]

The hype is ridiculous. He hasn't done that much in his career. Tim is solid enough for 800k. people here wanting him dropped and let go i just don't get it.

I ain’t one of those people. I’ve said multiple times anything over a million and I’m happy to see him go. I’d be comfortable at 800-900.

 

[Mofra]

It depends where the club sees Darcy being of most value. Could he be the next Max Gawn dominating around the ground or is he a 60 goal KPF who pinch hits in the ruck

Darcy is simply unbeatable in the air forward of the ball. He's the only 200cm+ forward in the comp that consistently takes the ball at it's highest point, with outstretched arms. Soon enough he'll demand the no 1 or 2 defender, and where does that leave an opposition trying to cover Naughton/Marra?

 

[TiAn_]

It depends where the club sees Darcy being of most value. Could he be the next Max Gawn dominating around the ground or is he a 60 goal KPF who pinch hits in the ruck

If Darcy is capable of kicking 60 then you might never see him in the ruck again.

 

[Golden_6]

Does anyone know if Colin Young or his group manage any.other doggy lads??

Naughton & English but managed mainly by McDougall.

 

[weltschmerz]

Darcy is simply unbeatable in the air forward of the ball. He's the only 200cm+ forward in the comp that consistently takes the ball at it's highest point, with outstretched arms. Soon enough he'll demand the no 1 or 2 defender, and where does that leave an opposition trying to cover Naughton/Marra?

Plus he’s got a good 5cm on even the tallest key defenders. Seems like it would be hard for even a Ben McKay or Sam de Koning when Darcy is at full stretch.